Risk analysis workshop

Dec 2009

2

Objectives of the workshop:

Impact

Intervention

Discuss the function of hazard and risk analysis in contingency planning

Describe basic hazard and risk analysis concepts and tools

Identify risk and threats at country level

3

Function of hazard and risk analysis:

Impact

Intervention

To understand the potential emergency situations that a country or region may face in the future – especially those where your organization assistance may be required (according to the impact and the mandate of your organization)

To prioritize hazards for contingency planning

4

Hazard and Risk analysis

Impact

Intervention

Hazard analysis: Analysis of the possible threats or sources of exposure to injury, harm or loss. Each hazard is characterised by its location, intensity, frequency and probability

Risk analysis: Analysis of the probability of occurrence and the magnitude/gravity (intensity, area) of the consequences of hazards

The gravity of the event is mainly determined by the scale of the impact on households, populations or livelihoods, and by how much the event is overwhelming existing structures and mechanisms to deal with it.

5

Risk analysis

Impact

Intervention

A risk is an event which might or might not occur resulting in harm or loss or danger. It is rated by likelihood and impact as shown:

Impact

Catastrophic

Medium

Moderate

Likelihood

Likely

Major

Almost Certain

RISK

------------------------

------------------------------

6

Hazard and risk analysis process:

Impact

Intervention

Collection and analysis of information:

Maps Statistics (past hazards) Reports and studies about past crisis impact Lessons learnt Risk and hazard matrix Risk ranking Risk mapping Etc..

7

The Funnel Analogy for Risk Ranking:

Impact

Intervention

Plan for a small number of key and representative contingencies and scenarios.

Rule of thumb: No more than 5

Contingencies must be filtered:

• Most probable?

• Biggest impact?

8

Risk analysis process:

Impact

Intervention

How likely is the risk event to happen?

Measure the likelihood or probability with which the event will occur. Using the best information available, planners should try to reach a consensus on probability and then assign the scenario a “probability level”.

What would be the impact or consequences of that event occurring?

Using the best information available, planners should try to assess the potential impact or consequences of the scenario, and assign an “impact level”.

9

Risk ranking matrix:

Impact

Intervention

10

Risk ranking matrix

Impact

Intervention

Catastrophic Major MediumA B C

3 Almost Certain AAA BBB CCC

2 Likely AA BB CC

1 Moderate A B C

High RiskModerate Risk

Low Risk

IMPACT

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y Risk Point: HIGH

RISK

By combining probability and impact planners reach an agreement on the risk levels and prioritize among the full range of risks considered.

After having agreed on the Risk Point planners Build Scenarios and Develop Planning Assumptions.

Catastrophic Major MediumC

3 Almost Certain

2 Likely

1 Moderate

High RiskModerate Risk

Low Risk

IMPACT

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

11

Practical exercice

Impact

Intervention

Over the next 2 hours, each group will develop concise and clear hazard and risk analysis for the following area:

Mali