Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture

Andy Jarvis, CCAFS

The Challenge

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

2013

1. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

Climate-smart agriculture

“The overall aim …. is to support efforts from the local to global levels for sustainably using agricultural

systems to achieve food and nutrition security for all people at

all times, integrating necessary adaptation

and capturing potential mitigation”

Lipper et al (2014) • 24 authors from 15 institutions

• Nature: Climate Change

In order to meet global demands, we

will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

Why is CSA important? – Food Security

2013

Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz

T-Max

T-MaxYield Yield

Arroz

Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it

2013

Why is CSA important? - Adaptation

Global wheat and maize

yields: response to warming

Distribution Arabica

11. September 2014 ASIC 2014 Climate Change Impacts 10/14

Current 2050 Change

Suitability of Arabica Coffee in Indonesia – Pressure on natural habitats

Götz Schroth, Peter Läderach,cDiana Sofia Blackburn Cuero, Jeffrey Neilson, Christian Bunn. Winner or loser of climate change? A modeling study of currentcand future climatic suitability of Arabica coffee in Indonesia. Reg Environ Change. 2014.

12

Impact of coastal extreme events on aquaculture in Vietnam

Frequency of reports of fish and shrimp areas damaged by coastal extreme events from historical records, 1989-2008

The devastating effect of this one typhoon accounted for > 50% of aquaculture area damaged; and> 75% of fish and shrimp lostin Vietnam over a 19-year period

Source data: Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDMP)

In 1997 Typhoon Linda grazed past the Mekong delta in its southerly track

Source: Stowasser et al., 2007

Will there be more storms over the South China Sea with climate change?

for 6-fold increase in CO2

Suggests:- increase in number of storms- Higher frequency of stronger storms over the South China Sea

Will there be more of typhoon Lindas?

2013

Why is CSA important? - Mitigation

13

Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas

emissions (2010)

Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice,

livestock, energy)

Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands

Industrial processes Waste

Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year

Non-Ag Energy

70

11

4 2

2013

Why is CSA important? - Mitigation

“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world

Gt CO2e per year

2010 2050 (Business as usual)

2050 (2°C target)

12 15

36

70

Non-agricultural emissions

Agricultural and land-use change emissions

>70%

48

85

21

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

Studies with indicators for at least one component of CSA

Random sample of 815 studies

Studies with indicators for all three components of CSA

Random sample of 815 studies

Need a new paradigm for research

Synergies and tradeoffs between food security and adaptation with

CSAFood securityAd

apta

tion

6% 16%

46% 32%SynergiesTradeoffs

Tradeoffs

Mean effect from random sample of 130 studies (55 comparisons)

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates: 30% of the

world will experience novel combinations of climate

And also non-linear responses of crops to climates

•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposed to temperatures >30˚C

•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree

Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

Common beans in a +2 ºC world

But anything is possible with a great genepool

(a) Historical (b) Future (no adaptation) (c) Future (+3 ºC adapted)

Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428

Can we breed our way out of the problem?

Message 3:Different breeding challenges for

different crops, in different countries – no silver bullet!

2013

2. There are significant successes in CSA

CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services

landscape

crops

livestock

fish

food system

services

Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

CSA options for landscapes

landscape

Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)

Manage livestock & wildlife over

wide areas

Increase cover of trees and perennials

Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,

grasslands and watersheds

Create diversity of land uses

Harvest floods & manage

groundwater

Address coastal

salinity & sea surges

Protect against large-scale erosion

Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia

Photos: W. Bewket, AAU

190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit

Cut-and-carry feed for livestock

380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost

CSA options for crops & fields

crops

Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species

and cultivars

Altering cropping patterns & planting

dates

Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing

Improved water use efficiency (irrigation

systems, water micro-harvesting)

Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases

Agroforestry, intercropping &

on-farm biodiversity

The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh is also exposed to tropical cyclones (Sidr in 2007; Aila in 2009)• Affected communities that suffer from

the chronic effects of sea-level rise are also vulnerable to the devastating effects of these cyclones;

• Houses, farmlands and even lives are lost.

Climate-smart farming in Bangladesh

The Climate Smart Farm Project in south-western Bangladesh tested a range of possible adaptations to climate change and variability:• Sturdily constructed, cyclone- and flood-

resistant house;• Vertical horticulture to avoid saline soil

conditions;• Rainwater harvesting for domestic use and

watering that are gender-sensitive and adaptable in different combinations to suit local conditions

5.6x 4.1x

4.5x

Agroforestry: Integrating trees on farms

Norton-Griffiths 2012

Diversified livelihoods, as much as 5 additional uses

20-40% Abovegroundcarbon

Reppin in prep

CSA options for livestock

livestock

High-quality diets that increase conversion

efficiency and reduce emissions

Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at

different ages

Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of

water points

Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds

Improved pasture

management

Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens

Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil

Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT

45% higher stocking densityno increase in pasture areabetter pasture quality40% reduction in emissionsagriculture decoupled from

deforestation

CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture

fish

Better physical defences against

sea surges

Quota schemes matched to

monitoring of fish stocks

Greater energy efficiency in harvesting

Rehabilitation of mangroves &

breeding grounds

Less dependence of aquaculture on

marine fish feed

Reducing losses and wastage

CSA options for food systems

food system

More creative and efficient use of by-products

Less energy-intensity in

fertilizer production

Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport

(e.g. roads, ports)

Changing diets

Greater attention to food safety

Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer

wastage

Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”in United Kingdom

13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion

national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year

CSA options for services

services

Monitoring & data for food security,

climate & ecosystems

Early warning systems & weather forecasts

Mobile phone, radio & other extension or

information for farmers

Research that links farmers &

science

Weather insurance &

micro-finance

Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for

climate shocks

12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured

INDIA Weather-based insurance

Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation

Reduces risks

Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed

Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal

3 million farmers get forecasts70 community radio stations better food security outcomes

2. But major scaling up

is needed

1.5 billion

people depend on Degraded

Land

USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010)

1 billion more People by 2030

1.4 billion living in Poverty

14% more Food needed per

decade

Nearly 1 billion going Hungry

Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA

Mitigation targets?

Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World

DC Targets (2035)• 22% reduction in agricultural

emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline

• 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends

Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity

So what are the targets?

46

Requires a comprehensive approach• Partnerships: research and development, science

and policy, public and private• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,

programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services)

• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas

• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector

Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)

30% water

20-50% GHG

Without compromising yield

• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering

• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 15.0

8.7

-42%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

t CO

2-eq

/ ha

*sea

son

4.93.9

-20%

0

2

4

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16

0

2

4

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-22%-28%

6.04.7

6.44.6

Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying

Summer-Autumn

Winter-Spring

Sander et al. in press IRRI

AWD Conventional

Addressing constraintsFrom national level…

to implementation at provincial level….

Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI

Leb by

Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks

Strong national engagement

Maximizing productivity in agricultural systems. Identifying the combination of factors that lead to high and low productivities (empirical approaches)

Pulling the pieces togetherCl

imat

e re

silie

nce

Baseline

Adapted technologies

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

+Enabling

environment NAPs and NAMAs

Climate smartness

Adapted technologies

+Climate-specific

management+

Seasonal agroclimatic

forecasts+

Efficient resource use

Global learning

• Challenge immense, but not insurmountable

• CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up:– Technical– Financial– Policy

• Two key factors for success:– Successfully building a business case for CSA– Addressing the constraints head on

• Agricultural scientists need to support the drive towards CSA– Mainstreaming productivity, adaptation and

mitigation into next generation of ag technologies

In summary….

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