1Rijksinstituut voor Integraal Zoetwaterbeheeren Afvalwaterbehandeling (RIZA)

Prospective analysis &IEA for the water environment

lessons learned in the Netherlands

dr.ir. Frans H.M. van de Ven

RIZA

ir. Ton H.M. Bresser

RIVM

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Integrated Water Management

IWM = management of

• groundwater + surface water

• quantity, quality and ecology

taking into account

the demands of society

from a number of sectoral policy fields

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Relevant sectoral policy fields internal and external integration

watermanagement

environment

economy

technology

spatial planningsocio-cultural

institutions

finance

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Integrated Water Management

IWM = a decision making problem

taking into account

• ecological health of (water)system

• stakeholders interests– economic– emotional

• steering options IWM

IEA

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Prospective analysis & IEA

objective:• to assist decision makers in their task to

manage the water (air, soil, space,….)by assessing developments in

– issues– DPSIR– stakeholder interests (economic, social, …)– regional differences – related sectoral policies– steering mechanisms

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Developments in IEA in the NL

• early ’90: policy analysis

• early ’00:

multiple methods

end-user (decision maker) involvement

stakeholder involvement

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Aquatic Outlook: 4 methods to assess developments

time horizon

future framing +backward mapping

trend analysis

methods

2000 2010 2030 2100

scanning the policy

policy analysis

real

ity

imag

inat

ion

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1. Scanning the policies

Method: analyse policy documents from – spatial planning– environment– nature– agriculture– economy….

to find common problems, developments, strategy,...

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Findings

They hardly said anything about water ! (this has drastically changed in the recent years!)

So (1): poor external integration of water management

(2): change objective of IWM from• protecting against flooding and pollution

abatement to

• managing water in the interest of the people

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2. Policy analysis• work of experts• scenario’s• complex models• profound• water-system-

focussed• limited interaction

with stakeholders

present situation

future situation

check performance

bottle necks

evaluation

autonomousdevelopments

measures&alternatives

policy choice

choose indicators,standards, basins,etc.

PHASES

iden

tifi

cati

on

develo

pm

en

t &

an

aly

sis

sele

cti

on

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EmissiesHydrodynamica

morfologie

Water-

kwaliteit

Gebruiks-

functies

Ecologie

Modelling instruments

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4.8

6.33

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 2000 2020 2040

kton

fosf

aat

jaar

voortzetting

nivo 1993

HUIDIG BELEID

1985-lijn

SYSTEEM

bemesting op

Nul-bemesting

P- runoff and leachingin various scenarios

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communaal

landbouw

overige lozingen op riool

depositie

Sources of direct N-emissions into NL regional water systems

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New: Collaborative PA

Open PlanningProcess

Policy Analysis

1. Start-up

2. Problems

3. Solutions

4. Actions

Interchangeof

information

Pro

blem

sS

olut

ions

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Participants collaborative PA

Open Planning

ProcessPolicy Analysis:

Professionals

Non-Professionals

Interchange

of

Information

Professionals

Including stakeholders

Including stakeholders

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3. Trend analysis

Method:

interviews, deskwork, discussions

using

expert judgement and statistics

in order to

find relevant trends and trend breaches in the next 20-25 yrs.

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Findings

New agenda for IWM:• water economics (extended CBA)

• emotional values (cultural, landscape Q)

• impact on spatial planning

• European dimension / river basin approach / Framework directive

• IWM learns to communicate

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4. Future framing / backward mapping

Method:

Visionary people imagine the future

(cf. Jules Verne)

than step backward in time and

see how to steer developments

(stimulate or avoid)

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Findings

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Function of the 4 methods

• stimulate discussion with– decision makers– stakeholdersto create “negotiated (shared) knowledge”and “sense of urgency”

• raising issues for the policy agendaknowledge agenda policy agenda

• show steering options (how and when)

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Discussion

• no longer enough to make water system / water policy analysis

• decision makers agenda has changed:– safety first– appreciation of water– economic value of water – collaborative planning– impact on spatial/physical planning

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Discussion

• IEA to (re)formulate & address this new agenda• IEA to provide options, no optimal solutions• IEA to answer steering questions • hard to transfer information

Objective: create joint learning process via

discussions, games, workshops, …

• permanent dialogue with

decision makers & stakeholders required

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Discussion

• WFD IWM

• WFD = instrument;

IEA = another instrument

• data requirement of

WFD 2004 State & Outlook report

avoid double work !