OCEAN ACIDIFICATIONThe Other CO2 Problem

Richard A. Feely, Ph.D.NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryNorthwest Indian Fisheries Commission Workshop

August 12, 2010

Outline1. Overview of ocean acidification

science2. Results of ocean acidification surveys 3. What are the potential biological

impacts?4. Where do we go from here?

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y Cumulative carbon sources and sinks

over the last two centuries

Global Carbon Project (2008) Carbon Budget and trends 2007, www.globalcarbonproject.org, 26 September 2008

Land-use change 160 Pg C

(31%)

Fossil emission 348 Pg C

(69%)

Terrestrial sink 147 Pg C

(29%)

Ocean sink 127 Pg C

(25%)

S O U R C E S S I N K S

Atmospheric accumulation 234 Pg C

(46%)

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y

Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007, Science

Rates of increase are important

atmospheric CO2 global temperature

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y

CO2 emissions (GtC/yr)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300

Atmospheric CO2

concentration (ppm)

Drivers for a change in energy policy

IPCC TAR Emission Profiles from Pre-Industrial Levels

Turley (2006)

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y Saturation State

calcium carbonate calcium carbonate

CO2 CO32 H2O 2HCO3

Ca2 CO32 CaCO3

Saturation State

Wphase =Ca2+[ ] CO3

2-[ ]Ksp,phase

*

W>1= precipitationW=1=equilibriumW<1=dissolution

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y Field Observations

WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global CO2 Survey~72,000 sample locations collected in the 1990s

DIC ± 2 µmol kg-1

TA ± 4 µmol kg-1

Sabine et al. (2004)

Oce

an C

O2 C

hem

istr

y Observed aragonite & calcite saturation depths

Feely et al. (2004)

The aragonite saturation state migrates towards the surface at the rate of 1-2 m yr-1, depending on location.

Feely, Doney and Cooley, Oceanography (2009)

pH distribution in surface waters

warm water coralsdeep water corals

pH

from the NCAR CCSM3 model projections using the IPCC A2 CO2 Emission Scenarios

Proj

ectio

ns

Proj

ectio

nsNatural processes that could accelerate the ocean acidification of coastal waters

Coastal Upwelling

brings high CO2, low pH, low Ω, low O2 water to surface

NACP West Coast Survey Cruise11 May – 14 June 2007

MBARI UCLA

AberdeenNewport

Seasonal invasion of corrosive waters on west coast North America

NACP West Coast Survey Cruise11 May – 14 June 2007

Feely et al. (2008)

sample locations

Vertical sections from Line 5 (Pt. St. George, California)

....

The ‘ocean acidified’ corrosive water was upwelled from depths of 150-200 m onto the shelf and outcropped at the surface near the coast.

surface 120m

Aragonite saturation state in west coast waters

North American Carbon ProgramContinental carbon budgets, dynamics, processes & management

Feely et al. (2010)

Summer 2008 transect: Coast to Hood Canal

Lower pH and lower saturation states in subsurface waters of Hood Canal than along the Washington Coast

Potential impacts: marine organisms & ecosystems

• Changes to:• Fitness and survival• Species biogeography• Key biogeochemical cycles• Food webs

• Reduced: • Sound Absorption• Homing Ability• Recruitment and Settlement

• Reduced calcification rates • Significant shift in key nutrient

and trace element speciation• Shift in phytoplankton diversity • Reduced growth, production

and life span of adults, juveniles & larvae

• Reduced tolerance to other environmental fluctuations

Changes to ecosystems & their services

Uncertainties great

RESEARCH REQUIRED

Experiments on many scales

Biosphere 2 (provided by Mark Eakin) Aquaria & small mesocosms

SHARQSubmersible Habitat for Analyzing Reef Quality

Major planktonic calcifers

Coccolithophores

Foraminifera

Pteropods

algae

protists

snails

~ 200 calcite days

~ 30 weekscalcite

~ 32 months to year?

aragonite

extant species

mineralform

generation time

CoccolithoporesSingle-cell algae

Emiliania huxleyi Gephyrocapsa oceanica

pCO2

280-380 ppmv

780-850 ppmv

Calcification decreased - 45%- 9 to 18%

Riebesell et al.(2000); Zondervan et al.(2001)

manipulation of CO2 system by addition of

HCl or NaOH

Formaniferasingle-celled protists

Shell mass is positively correlated with [CO32-]

Bijma et al. (2002)-4 to -8% decline in calcification at pCO2= 560 ppm-6 to -14% decline in calcification at pCO2= 780 ppm

Shelled pteropodsplanktonic snails

Whole shell: Clio pyramidata

Arag. rods exposed Prismatic layer (1 µm) peels back

Aperture (~7 µm): advanced dissolution

Normal shell: no dissolution

Respiratory CO2 forced ΩA <1Shells of live animals start to dissolve within 48 hours

Orr et al. (2005)

0.5

0

1

1.5

1

0

4

2

3

Billi

ons

of U

.S. $

U.S. NewEngl.

Mid-Atl.

Gulf Pac. HI AK

UninfluencedPredatorsCrustaceans (crabs, etc)Bivalves (oysters, etc.)

$4B primary commercial sales in 2007 fed a $70B industry, adding $35B to GNP

Varying regional importance of fishery groups calls for local adaptation

Total consequences could be far-reaching for ecosystems and marine-dependent societies

Cooley & Doney, 2009

Potential Economic Impacts

Mussels & oysters

Decrease in calcification rates for the both species

Significant with pCO2 increase and [CO3

2-] decrease

At pCO2 740 ppmv:

25% decrease in calcification for mussels

10% decrease in calcification for oysters

Gazeau et al., 2007

Mytilus edulis & Crassostrea gigas

Bivalve juveniles

0.3 mm newly settled clams

• Massive dissolution within 24 hours in undersaturated water; shell gone within 2 weeks

• Dissolution causes mortality in estuaries & coastal habitats

Hard shell clam Mercenaria

Common in soft bottom habitats

Potential food web impacts

Barrie Kovish

Vicki Fabry

Pacific Salmon

Coccolithophores

Pteropods

V. Fabry

Copepods

ARCOD@ims.uaf.edu

Food web impacts

Barrie Kovish

Vicki Fabry

Diet of juvenile salmon

Armstrong et al., 2005

Impacts of increasing pCO2 on nearly 100% of prey types are unknown

60% 63%

15%

Pteropod

Marine Fish impacts

Barrie Kovish

Vicki Fabry

Impacts Scorecard # species studied

Barrie Kovish

Vicki Fabry

coccolithophoresprokaryotesseagrass

calc

ifica

tion

repr

o-du

ction

nitr

ogen

fix

ation

phot

o-sy

nthe

sis

mollusksechinoderms

cyanobacteria

coccolithophoresplanktonic formaniferamollusksechinodermstropical coralscorraline red algae

4 2 1 1 1 2 2 - - - 4 4 - - - 2 2 - - -11 11 - - - 1 1 - - -

2 - 2 2 - 2 - 1 1 - 5 - 5 - -

1 - 1 - -

4 4 - - - 1 1 - - -

Response to increasing CO2

Doney et al., 2009

Differing pH levels in Mediterranean CO2 vents off Ischia Island (pH 8.17 to 6.57)

Hall-Spencer et al. Nature (2008)

Sea-grass shoot density

epiphytic CaCO3

Winners & Losers

Ischia CO2 ventsVariation in pH & species abundance

Hal

l-Spe

ncer

et a

l. N

atur

e (2

008)

Live Patella caerulea and Hexaplex trunculus (gastropods) showing severely eroded, pitted shells in areas of minimum pH7.4

Tipping point at around 7.8 or even higher • How do you differentiate between a

threshold and new regime?• Different “pH Tipping Points” for different

species?

Pacific Northwest oyster emergency

Willapa Bayseed crisis• Failure of larval oyster

recruitments in recent years

• Commercial oyster hatchery failures threatens $100M industry (3000 Jobs)

• Low pH “upwelled” waters a possible leading factor in failures

Larval oyster may be “canary in goldmine” for near-shore acidification?

06/06 06/16 06/26 07/06 07/16 07/26-15

0

15

10 units

N S

win

d (

m/s

)06/06 06/16 06/26 07/06 07/16 07/26

28

30

32

34

Sal

init

y (p

pt)

06/06 06/16 06/26 07/06 07/16 07/26-5

0

5

Per

form

ance

of

Sm

all

Lar

vae

(<12

0 m

icro

ns)

Growth Survival

06/06 06/16 06/26 07/06 07/16 07/260.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

A

rag

on

ite

Sat

ura

tio

n S

tate

Figure courtesy of Alan Barton

Upwelling favorable

winds

Highersalinity

High mortality

Low Ωarag

Coastal upwelling linked to high mortality events

Winds from S

Lowersalinity

High survival

High Ωarag

Saturation (Ωarag)

NOAA OA Research Implementation Plan

Monitor trends

Ecosystem responses

Model changes & responses

Develop adaptation strategies

Conduct education and outreach

Importance of Moorings

First ocean acidification mooring Gulf of Alaska at Station Papa - 2007

Collaboration and coordination across international, federal and state agencies is vital.

Preliminary results show a clear seasonal trend in pH and a strong correlation with pCO2

2007 – 1st OA mooring in Gulf of Alaska at Papa Station

Biological impacts & sensitivity to CO2 perturbations

Much of our present knowledge stems from… abrupt CO2/pH perturbation experiments with single species/strains under short-term incubations with often extreme pH changes

Hence, we know little about… responses of genetically diverse populations synergistic effects with other stress factors physiological and micro-evolutionary

adaptations species replacements community to ecosystem responses impacts on global climate change

-Provided by Ulf Riebesell, 2006

2009

Federal Ocean Acidification Research

and Monitoring Acto of 2009 (H.R. 146)

Omnibus Land Management Act of 2009

Senate Bill

passed

House Bill

passed

President

signed

Introduced June & November 2007

Conclusions

Since the beginning of the industrial age surface ocean pH (~0.1), carbonate ion concentrations (~16%), and aragonite and calcite saturation states (~16%) have been decreasing because of the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the oceans, i.e., ocean acidification. By the end of this century pH could have a further decrease by as much as 0.3-0.4 pH units.

Possible responses of ecosystems are speculative but could involve changes in species composition & abundances - could affect food webs, biogeochemical cycles. More research on impacts and vulnerabilities is needed.

An observational network for ocean acidification is under development. Modeling studies need to be expanded into coastal regions. Physiological response, mitigation and adaptation studies need to be developed and integrated with the models.