How the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Partners Reached Agreement on Nutrient

and Sediment Load Reductions and CapsRichard Batiuk

Associate Director for ScienceU.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office

January 24, 2005

2

Over 90% of the Bay and its tidal rivers are impaired due to low dissolved oxygen levels and poor water clarity, all related to nutrient and sediment pollution. Without oxygen and grasses, the Bay’s crabs, oysters, and fish cannot survive and thrive.

Impaired Water

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Extensive low to no dissolved oxygen conditions persist

throughout the Chesapeake Bay

Baltimore

Washington, DC

Richmond

Norfolk

June 2005 Bottom Dissolved Oxygen

4

Sediments from the Susquehanna can impact Bay grass bay beds throughout the

upper Chesapeake Bay

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What Do We Want to Achieve?

Water quality that supports abundant fish,

crabs, oysters and underwater grasses in

the Bay and its rivers.

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Partners Commitment to Restored Bay Water Quality

“By 2010, correct the nutrient‑ and sediment‑related problems in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries...”

Step 1: What is the water quality of a restored Bay? Step 2: How much pollution do we need to reduce?Step 3: What actions do we need to take to reduce pollution?

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Water Quality in a Restored Bay

• Fewer algae blooms and better fish food.• Clearer water and more underwater Bay grasses.• More oxygen and improved habitat for more fish,

crabs and oysters.

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Rockfish, BluefishMenhaden Habitat

Shad, Herring, Perch and Rockfish Spawning Habitat

Local “Zoning” for Bay and River Fish, Crab and Grasses Habitats

Bay GrassesHabitat

Oyster, Crab, Croaker and Spot

Habitat Summertime Crab Food

Habitat

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Bay Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

Minimum Amount of Oxygen (mg/L) Needed to Survive by Species

Migratory Fish Spawning & Nursery Areas

Hard Clams: 5

Striped Bass: 5-6

Worms: 1

Shallow and Open Water Areas

Deep Water

Deep Channel

6

5

3

2

1

4

0

Crabs: 3

Spot: 2

White Perch: 5

American Shad: 5

Yellow Perch: 5

Alewife: 3.6

Bay Anchovy: 3

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Bay Grasses Restoration Goal

MD, VA, DE and DC have adopted the 185,000 acre Bay

grasses restoration goal into their state

water quality standard

regulations

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Scientific Basis for Decisions was Documented by the Partners

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Chesapeake Bay Program -Current Models

Nitrate and ammonia deposition from Regression Model (NADP

concentrations, precipitation, time, and latitude) applied to precipitation data

from gauging stations.

Adjustments to deposition from Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM)

Chesapeake Bay Watershed ModelLumped-parameter, physically-

basedLand and water simulation,

Nutrient and sediment simulation

Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package

Hydrodynamic Model, Sediment Benthic Model, and Submerged

Aquatic Vegetation

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Nutrient Loadings vs. Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Attainment

% Dissolved OxygenCriteria Attainment

Millions of pounds per yearnitrogen phosphorus

337

285

175

26.5 19.1 12.8

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RelativeImpact

onDissolvedOxygen

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WatershedStates

Responsibility

Allocating the Cap Loads

By 9 major river basins

...then by 20 major tributary basins by

jurisdiction

…then by 44 state-defined tributary

strategy subbasins

WatershedPartners

Responsibility

WatershedStates

Responsibility

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Nitrogen Allocation Phosphorus Allocation Upland Sediment AllocationBasin/Jurisdiction(million pounds/year) (million pounds/year) (million tons/year)

SUSQUEHANNA PA 67.58 1.90 0.793NY 12.58 0.59 0.131MD 0.83 0.03 0.037

SUSQUEHANNA Total 80.99 2.52 0.962EASTERN SHORE - MD

MD 10.89 0.81 0.116DE 2.88 0.30 0.042PA 0.27 0.03 0.004VA 0.06 0.01 0.001

EASTERN SHORE - MD Total 14.10 1.14 0.163WESTERN SHORE

MD 11.27 0.84 0.100PA 0.02 0.00 0.001

WESTERN SHORE Total 11.29 0.84 0.100PATUXENT

MD 2.46 0.21 0.095PATUXENT Total 2.46 0.21 0.095

POTOMAC VA 12.84 1.40 0.617MD 11.81 1.04 0.364WV 4.71 0.36 0.311PA 4.02 0.33 0.197DC 2.40 0.34 0.006

POTOMAC Total 35.78 3.48 1.494RAPPAHANNOCK

VA 5.24 0.62 0.288RAPPAHANNOCK Total 5.24 0.62 0.288

YORK VA 5.70 0.48 0.103

YORK Total 5.70 0.48 0.103JAMES

VA 26.40 3.41 0.925WV 0.03 0.01 0.010

JAMES Total 26.43 3.42 0.935EASTERN SHORE - VA

VA 1.16 0.08 0.008EASTERN SHORE - VA Total 1.16 0.08 0.008

SUBTOTAL 183 12.8 4.15CLEAR SKIES REDUCTION -8

BASIN-WIDE TOTAL 175 12.8 4.15

Final Allocationsof Nutrient and Sediment Cap Loads

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All 439 significant

NPDES permitted

facilities are now required to have annual N and P loads in their permits

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On the Horizon -- Looking Towards 2010

• Refine nutrient cap load allocations to ensure achievement of the new state water quality standards

• New sediment cap load allocations to ensure achievement of the water clarity/Bay grass standards

• Partners must address Virginia TMDL court settlement and scheduled Maryland tidal water TMDLs by 2010

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Chesapeake Bay Program- New Models

Nitrate and ammonia deposition from improved Daily Nitrate and Ammonium

Concentration Models

Adjustments to deposition from Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air

Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System

Phase 5 Watershed ModelBetter year-to-year simulation – mass balance modeling; Large aggregate land simulation with

distributed rivers; Time series of management practices; Automated

calibration

Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model New grid; Bank loads; Nutrient

controls on TSS and chlorophyll-a sinking/suspension;

Hydrodynamic and Wave Models for sediment re-suspension in

the Water Quality Model

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Partnership at Work Towards 2010

• 2006: states’ impaired waters lists updated, new Bay chlorophyll a criteria published, partners continue adopting new BMPs

• 2007: new Bay watershed model, 2030 projections adopted, refinements to state WQ standards adopted

• 2008: new Bay water quality/sediment transport model; states’ updated impaired waters lists drives decision on watershed-wide TMDL

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Partnership at Work Towards 2010

• 2009: partners agreement on draft revised nutrient and sediment cap load allocations, initiate public review of new allocations and draft revised tributary strategies

• 2010: partner approval of revised nutrient and sediment cap load allocations, state adoption of revised tributary strategies

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Dissolved Oxygen Standards Attainment

57% of dissolved oxygen goal achieved.

During June -September when water quality is poorest

0102030405060708090

100

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

3 year mean

Restoration Goal (100%)

% total volume meeting dissolved oxygen standards

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Water Clarity Standards Attainment

as measured by Bay grasses and clarity

0

20

40

60

80

198

5-19

87

198

6-19

88

198

7-19

89

198

8-19

90

198

9-19

91

199

0-19

92

199

1-19

93

199

2-19

94

199

3-19

95

199

4-19

96

199

5-19

97

199

6-19

98

199

7-19

99

199

8-20

00

199

9-20

01

200

0-20

02

200

1-20

03

200

2-20

04

200

3-20

05

years

perc

ent

0102030405060708090

100

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Bay Grass Acreages

Water Clarity

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Wastewater Treatment

Enhancement

Goal achievement is measured relative to the 1985 base year and a load cap of

37.8 M lbs. nitrogen and 3.01 M lbs.

phosphorus.

By 2004, 61% of the nitrogen goal and

80% of the phosphorus goal had

been achieved.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Wastewater Treatment Enhancement: Phosphorus (% goal achievement)

Wastewater Treatment Enhancement: Nitrogen (% goal achievement)

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Tracking Reported Implementation of

Agricultural PracticesGoal achievement level is an integration of implementation

levels of agricultural BMPs reported by the states. Implementation is

measured against Tributary Strategy goals with 1985 as the base year. Gray bars indicate a

linear progression between years where data was available.

By 2004, 44% of the nitrogen implementation goal, 49% of the phosphorus implementation goal,

and 41% of the sediment implementation goal had been

achieved.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Agriculture Nitrogen

Agriculture Phosphorus

Agriculture Sediment

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Our Rivers Are Showing Signs of Progress When River Flow is Accounted for

Sources: CBP, USGS

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Rich BatiukAssociate Director for ScienceU.S. Environmental Protection

Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office

410-267-5731batiuk.richard@epa.govwww.chesapeakebay.net