Years before present

Rat

e of

SLR

(mm

/yr)

“Geologic past” (Fairbanks, 1989; Horton et al. 2009)

“Instrumental record”(Church and White, 2006)

“Projections”(Rahmstorf, 2007)

Past, present, and potential future rates of sea-level rise

So, what can happen?Bluff erosion

Overwash

Island Breaching

Threshold CrossingUrban Inundation

R. Carlson

Wetland Migrationor Loss

Water Quality Reduction

Ecosystem Change

Infrastructure Failure

ListedSpeciesImpacts

Newport Harbor: Projected Inundation5 feet of sea level rise above MHHW

Shoreline Change/Beach 

SAMP

New Data & Information: •Erosion & Sediment Transport Mapping & Monitoring

• Inundation Mapping • Identification of Areas/Infrastructure at risk

•Economic Analysis•Engineering Evaluation of tools/techniques

• Salt Marsh Migration

Planning Tools and Policy Development• Legal review of Alternative Development Strategies

• Review of Techniques used elsewhere to address these issues

• Lessons learned in NY/NJ from Sandy• Recommendations or Guidance to Municipalities or other State Agencies on Best Practices or Policy

• New/Improved CRMC Policies

Education, Outreach & Communication•Webpage• Fact Sheets & Targeted Mailings• Social Media• Library Lectures & Stakeholder Meetings• “Group of Community Leaders” to help get message out 

• Videos & Accounts of Personal Connection

Other statewide studies:

• EC4• Dept of Health (health & 

drinking water)• Dept of Env. Management 

(waste water facilities)• Dept of Transportation 

(transportation infrastructure)

Sea Level Is A Land Use ProblemLand Use Tends To Be A Municipal Issue

Pilot Communities

Solutions At A Workable Scale

Products We Are Working On• New data and information about the shore face dynamics will be developed• Updated Erosion Maps—how has the shoreline changed over time and how

might we expect it to change in the future?• Sediment Transport Analysis—where does the sand go after it has been

washed away?• Salt Marsh Impact Assessment—how will our wetlands respond to rising sea

levels, will they migrate landward or drown in place?• Economic Analysis—what is the cost (insurance, rebuilding, taxes)

associated with shoreline change?• Identification of at risk areas and infrastructure—what infrastructure or

facilities are at risk from flooding both in the short-term from a major storm event or over the long-term from rising sea levels?

• Integration of findings from other statewide vulnerability assessments—integrating all state findings related to shoreline change will provide a more comprehensive picture and improve planning.

• Analysis of the legal questions surrounding shoreline change

Tools We Are Working On• A review of tools and techniques that have been used in other

places around the USA and the world to potential applicability to the situations in Rhode Island.

• Guidelines for Establishing Local Emergency Permitting for Post-Storm Recovery

• A compendium of Adaptation Techniques• Homebuyers Guide to Understanding Impacts of Shoreline

Change on Coastal Properties• Lessons learned from Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New

York, and how those lessons relate to and may be able to be adapted to the issues going on in Rhode Island.

• Develop a “Nuts and Bolts” took kit for Cities and Towns to draw up

• Engineering Review of Potential Rhode Island Adaptation Techniques

• Build private sector solutions that shift towards adaptation.

Flood Zones(2009, left and 2013, right) Misquamicut Barrier

2‐3 ft reduction in BFE 

????

Goal: develop independent set of FIRMS for Washington County using state of the art 

methods• Surge and wave simulations forced by  NACCS ADCIRC and SWAN simulations at save points for extra‐tropical and tropical storms.

• Simulations of near‐shore wave field and estimates of BFEs using STWAVE

• Extremal analysis based on NOAA Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis tool

• Create FIRM maps based on state of the art methods

A Time To Plan and Adapt