Revolution Evolution, Convergence Appliance Ken Wirt SVP/GM palmOne, Inc.
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Transcript of Revolution Evolution, Convergence Appliance Ken Wirt SVP/GM palmOne, Inc.
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Revolution Evolution, Convergence Appliance
Ken Wirt
SVP/GM palmOne, Inc
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2palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
We Hold These Truths to be Self-Evident…
■ Convergence is inevitable■ 3.7M results on Google■ Phones will cannibalize everything
■ Multi-function is better than single function■ More is better
■ “Platforms” are the best■ PC, OS, open architecture
■ But the signs are not always obvious
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3palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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4palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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5palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Survey
■ Clock, radio, receiver, TV, VCR
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6palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Survey
■ Washer-Dryer vs. pen-pencil vs. toaster-oven
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7palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Survey
■ Can-bottle opener vs. Swiss Army knife vs. spork
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8palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Survey
■ Phone-answering machine vs. multi-function printer
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9palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Survey
■ Phone vs. PDA vs. calculator vs. MP3
■ Signs are more confusing than they seem…
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10palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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11palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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12palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Electrification of Steam Power
■ Factory laid out with belts connecting “work stations” to steam engine■ No possiblity of “distributed steam”
■ Takes 20 yrs (life-cycle of factory building) for electric dynamo to be “distributed”
■ Average car has >60 electric motors
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13palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
20 Years for Distributed Computing
■ My kitchen has >14 computers
■ My house has 16 optical drives
■ Seems easy to predict, but if you make a wrong turn ….
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14palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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15palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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16palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
What is the Life-cycle of technology?
■ How can we understand the evolution of technology in products?
■ How will PCs, PDAs and phones develop in the future?
■ What will win?
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17palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Revolution Evolution
■ Revolution: Patterns of the past build to the future■ New technologies quickly displace old tech■ But usage model doesn’t change
■ Evolution: Takes time for other parts of the system to adapt into a unique solution■ Rebuild the factory for distributed power■ Not a new “solution” until the entire system changes
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18palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Convergence Appliance
■ Convergence■ Add more features because
“system/evolution” has not developed complete solution
■ Value depends on rate of tech change, not combined cost■ Clock-radio=slow, TV-VCR=fast
■ Benefit of combination can’t be just “two-in-one”■ Two is harder to use than one■ Calculator in phone
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19palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Appliance
■ Segmentation vs. “mass market”■ There is no “mass market” – only undefined markets■ Products diverge through maturity, not converge
Cost of communicating benefits
■ Cost vs. Value■ Cost to upgrade is the true measure
■ Utility vs. Simplicity■ Simplicity wins every time (all other things equal)■ On-board computers vs. I-drive
■ Watch the rear-view mirror – appliances may be gaining on you!
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20palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
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21palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Future of Appliances
■ WAN networks – not necessarily phones■ E-mail in the sky (keyboard)■ Music in the sky (audio)■ Photos in the sky (big display)■ Everything’s connected
■ Storage everywhere – not just the server■ Ala optical – hard drives in everything
■ Convergence?■ How to keep everything in sync?
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22palmOne, Inc. March 3, 2004
Because if we don’t ……….
Questions?