Revised skipper presentation
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nashvillempo.or Other than economic factors, what do you think communities are most concerned about as they consider transit issues? 1 2 3 40% 48% 12% 1.Safety & Security 2.Health & Environment 3.Quality growth/Sustain able land development
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This is the presentation Michael Skipper, Executive Director of the Metropolitan Planning Office, delivered to the Transit Citizen Leadership Academy of Septemb
Transcript of Revised skipper presentation
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Other than economic factors, what do you think communities are most concerned about as they consider transit issues?
1 2 3
40%
48%
12%
1. Safety & Security2. Health &
Environment3. Quality
growth/Sustainable land development
Mayor Karl Dean, Chairman
Planning for the Future with Mass Transit
Middle Tennessee Transit AcademySeptember 14, 2011
nashvillempo.org
What percentage of employees across the 10-county area commute to another county to work?
1 2 3 4
0%
48%44%
8%
1. 10%2. 25%3. 33%4. 66%
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Transportation is Regional Issue
WORK in Downtown Nashville, LIVE in…..
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Transportation is Regional Issue
Live in Hendersonville/ Gallatin Area, WORK in…..
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MPOs in Tennessee
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Nashville MPO
Clarksville MPO
Mayors Caucus
Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA)
Regional Geographies in Middle TN
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Population Growth, Middle Tennessee
Robertson
Sumner
Wilson
Rutherford
Williamson
Maury
Dickson
Cheatham
Montgomery
Davidson
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How will our Region Grow?
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Development Pattern, 1965-2035
Properties affected by development
1965750,000
20001,450,000
20352,600,000
(In 2035, the Nashville region will be about the size of the Denver region today)
Population
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Market and Policy Driven Forecasting
Environmental Constraints Land Use Policy
Suitability Analysis Growth Policy
nashvillempo.orgSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Woods & Poole Economics
Increasing Diversity
15%
17%
19%20% 20%
1%
3%
7%
11%10%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1990 2000 2010 2035
Non-White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic 65 Years of Age or Older
Race, Ethnicity, Age
nashvillempo.orgCensus for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD, 2003.
Increasing Diversity
48%
33% 28%
52%
67% 72%
13%26% 28%
1960 2000 2025
With Children Without Children Single Person
Household Composition
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Growth’s Impact on Mobility & Quality-of-Life
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Resiliency in Urban Congestion
Daily Recurring Congestion on Major Roadways.
TODAY2035
w/ Short-Term Improvements2035
After Long-Term Improvements
Congestion in Urban Areas Cannot Be Treated with Roadway Capacity Alone.
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How much does traffic congestion cost the region annually in wasted fuel and lost time?
1 2 3 4 5
17%
9%
17%17%
39%1. $200 million to $300 million
2. $300 million to $400 million
3. $400 million to $500 million
4. $500 million to $600 million
5. More than $600 million
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Texas Transportation Institute (TTI)Urban Mobility Report, 2009
Nashville-Davidson Urbanized AreaCost of Congestion (wasted fuel and time):
$ 426 Million, Annually $ 10.65 Billion, over next 25 years
nashvillempo.orgSource: Driven Apart (CEO for Cities)
nashvillempo.orgSource: Driven Apart (CEO for Cities), TTI Urban Mobility Report, 2009
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What percentage of Middle Tennessee households spend 20% or more of their income on transportation costs?
1 2 3 4 5
0%
50%
12%15%
23%
1. Less than 30%2. 30% to 50%3. 50% to 70%4. 70% to 90%5. More than 90%
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On average, Americans spend about 18% of their
Household Income on Transportation-
Related Expenses
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology Housing + Transportation Affordability Index (http://www.htaindex.org/)
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Public Attitudes toward Transportation Policy
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I have no choice but to drive as much as I do.
1 2
30%
70%1. Strongly agree2. Strongly disagree
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I would like to spend less time in my car.
1 2
21%
79%1. Strongly agree2. Strongly disagree
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(National telephone survey of 800 registered voters: 700 landline interviews & 100 cell phone interviews.)
No Other Options than Driving
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(National telephone survey of 800 registered voters: 700 landline interviews & 100 cell phone interviews.)
Transit a Preferred Solution
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“I have traveled all over this country…and everywhere I go, people want better options. Options that offer reduced greenhouse-gas emissions. Options that offer reduced fuel-consumption. Options that offer better health. Options that bring communities together. Now, let me make this absolutely clear: I never said we would stop repairing, maintaining, and –yes– even expanding roadways. I said only that it's time to stop assuming that putting more cars on more roads is the best way to move people around more effectively.”
– U.S. DOT Secretary Ray LaHood
U.S. DOT Responding to Public Demand
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Middle TN Public Opinions
Middle Tennessee residents are most satisfied with: the maintenance of roadways in their area (63%)overall levels of roadway congestion in their area (54%)
Middle Tennessee residents are least satisfied with:how walkable their community is (49%)how safe it is to ride a bicycle in their community (42%)availability of mass transit services in their area (29%), with
lack of transit options considered the greatest problem in Middle TN, followed by lack of walking & bicycling options.
Of several issues mentioned, the most important to solve was to provide alternatives to driving.
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Of these three strategies for improving transportation, which do you feel is most important?
1 2 3
79%
0%
21%
1. Improve and expand mass transit options
2. Make communities more walkable and bike friendly
3. Build or widen existing roadways
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MPO Area Public Opinions
Three strategies provided for improving transportation in Middle Tennessee; respondents then asked to prioritize– 1st choice: improve and expand mass
transit options2nd choice: make communities more
walkable & bike-friendly3rd choice: build new or widen existing
roadways
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How Should We Invest in Our Future?
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#1 A Bold, New Vision
for Mass Transit
#2 Support for Active
Transportation & Walkable Communities
#3 Preservation & Enhancement
of Strategic Roadways
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A Bold, New Vision for Mass Transit
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WHY MASS TRANSIT?Traffic Congestion, Energy Costs,
Environmental Burden
Changing Demographics & Market Demand
Quality of Life &Economic Development Tool
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Existing Services
Bus ServiceCommuter RailPark & Ride Not Shown:
• Regional Vanpool Service• ADA Paratransit Service• Rural Intercity Bus Service
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A Bold, New Vision for Mass Transit
FUTURE REGIONAL CORRIDOR SERVICE
FUTURE LOCAL TRANSIT SERVICE
Clarksville
Nashville
Franklin
Murfreesboro
Columbia
Dickson
Gallatin
Lebanon
Springfield
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Rapid Transit Corridors
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A History with InterUrban Rail
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existing
proposed
Light Rail Transit Alternative
Source: American Public Transportation AssociationMapping: Nashville Area MPO (2007)
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Rapid Rail Transit – Peers
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Bus Rapid Transit Alternative
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BUS Rapid Transit – Peers
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existing
proposed
Heavy Rail Transit Alternative
Source: American Public Transportation AssociationMapping: Nashville Area MPO (2007)
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Regional Rapid Transit Corridors
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Denver – Urban/ Suburban Rapid Transit
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13 Potential Station Sites
Music City Central
Cleveland Street
Trinity
Dickerson/ Skyline
Old Hickory
Conference DriveCenter Point
New Shackle IslandIndian Lake
Saundersville
Big Station Camp
Harris
Gallatin
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Music City Central Station
Land Use Issues:• Needed density/intensity increases must come from
high density office and residential redevelopment in downtown core.
• Will be driven by policy decisions (focusing high density regional employment and residential opportunities) more than land use decisions.
Station Context:
Urban Downtown Center, Regional employment destination
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Music City Central Station
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Saundersville Station
Land Use Issues:• Single-use categories – need to permit a mix of
uses adjacent to station
• Significant industrial and public facilities land uses limit TOD opportunities in station area
• Vertical mixed-use development not permitted
• New street connectivity will be needed to maximize access to station area
Future Land Use
Station Context:Suburban interchange with significant
industrial and institutional uses
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Saundersville StationThe Streets at Indian Lake Village
Traditional Office Park
Transit Oriented Development
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Saundersville Station
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Regional Rapid Transit Corridors
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Regional Commuter Rail Corridors
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existing
proposedSource: American Public Transportation AssociationMapping: Nashville Area MPO (2007)
Commuter Rail Transit Alternative
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Regional Commuter Rail Corridors
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Regional Commuter Rail Corridors
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Regional Commuter Rail Corridors
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Regional Express Coach Service
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Regional Express Coach Service
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Denver Regional Express Coach
DOWNTOWNDENVER
AIRPORT
BOULDER
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Regional Express Coach Service
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Local Circulators
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Local Circulators
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Local Circulators
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Urban Fixed Route Service
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Frequent, Safe & Comfortable Bus Service
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Frequent, Safe & Comfortable Bus Service
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Return of the Urban Streetcar
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Return of the Urban Streetcar
Year Number Cost in Return onRecent Projects Opened Miles of Cars Millions Economic Development InvestmentKenosha 2000 2 5 $5.2 $150,000,000 2885%Tampa 2002 2.4 11 $53.0 $2,000,000,000 3774%Little Rock (2 phases) 2004-2007 3.4 5 $28.5 $260,000,000 912%Memphis (3 phases) 1993-2006 6.5 20 $24.0 $137,000,000 571%Portland (2 phases) 2003 6 5 $73.0 $2,399,000,000 3286%
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RESULTS FOR STREETCAR PROJECTS
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Nashville Urban Streetcar
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Lower Broadway/ West End
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The 2035 Plan Provides:
A bold, new vision for mass transit to communicate the region's intentions for the long-term;
Funding for upcoming corridor and circulator studies to layout more specific strategies to implement the vision;
A call to re-organize the existing RTA to take advantage of new legislation;
A call to establish dedicated funding for transit to improve operational capacity of existing agencies and to help build the vision;
$950 million in federal transit funds for the continued maintenance and modest expansion of urban transit, ridesharing, and vanpool services;
$30 million for continued support for the JARC and New Freedom programs;
10% of future U-STP for transit projects.
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Support for Active Transportation & Walkable Communities
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System Preservation & Enhancement
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Show me the Money
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Average Costs per Mile
TRANSPORTATION OPTION AVG COST / MILE (Million)
Heavy Rail Transit $139 - $323
Light Rail Transit $45 - $85
Bus Rapid Transit $3 - $49
Electric Streetcar $3 - $30
Commuter Rail $1 - $15
4-Lane Highway $32 - $60
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Sources of Funding for Transit
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What do other things cost?
2030 Regional Plan adopted in 2005 = $3.5 BAnnual Payroll for NFL Players = $3.6 BCentral Texas Turnpike around Austin = $3.6 BSan Francisco/Oakland Bridge Replacement = $6.3 BDenver FasTracks System = $6.9 BLas Vegas City Center (mixed-use) = $11 BBig Dig (Boston) = $14.6 B
TTI Cost of Congestion for Nashville Metro between now and 2035 = $15+ B
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Funding/ Financing Issues
2035 Plan estimated to provide approx $4.9 B Federal The cost of NEEDS/ VISION is at least triple the
anticipated revenues Lack of dedicated funding for transit to ensure
stability and to compete for federal transit funds Sprawling land development pattern creates
unsustainable demand for infrastructure Declining fuel tax revenues and buying power means
fewer projects, slower progress, less benefit
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2035 Cost-Feasible Road Projects
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Highway Trust Fund Balance
DEFICIT
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Gasoline Prices, Last 5 Years
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Thinking Beyond the Gas Tax…
Public Private PartnershipsTolling & Congestion PricingDistance-Based User FeesMulti-Modal District Impact FeesNew Dedicated Funding for Mass Transit
Align Current Dollars with Real PrioritiesInvest Now to Save LaterBuild More Sustainable Communities
Livability. Sustainability. Prosperity. Diversity.
