Revised EST Armour

download Revised EST Armour

of 27

Transcript of Revised EST Armour

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    1/27

    ProposedMergerwith

    100%AGENCY

    RESIDENTIAL

    MORTGAGE

    REIT

    August26,2009

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    2/27

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    3/27

    2

    TransactionHighlights

    ARMOURisanexternallymanagedrealestateinvestmenttrustthatwillinvest,onaleveredbasis,in

    Agencyresidentialmortgagebackedsecurities

    Transactionwillprovideupto$250millionofequitycapital

    Managementteamledbytwoexecutiveswithfortyeightyearsofcombinedexperienceinmortgages,

    assetbackedsecuritiesandAgencymortgageREITmanagement

    Strongfocusonriskmanagementinportfoliocompositionandhedging

    Shareholderfriendlyfeestructure:1.5%ofshareholders equity;0.75%above$1billion;noincentive/

    performancefees

    Currentlypricedatapproximately1.04xbookvaluepershare*

    StrongcorporategovernanceseparateChairmanandCEOroles

    Expectedclose:4Q2009

    Tradingsymbols

    (NYSE

    Amex

    LLC

    US):

    EST

    (stock),

    EST.WS

    (warrant),

    EST.U

    (unit)

    ARMOURResidentialREIT,Inc.togopublicviaamergerwithEnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.

    * Assumes$250milliontransaction,financialdataasofMarch31,2009andstockpriceasofAugust26,2009(seepage15forcalculation)

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    4/27

    3

    TeamIntroduction

    Name Current/Prior Experience

    ScottJ.Ulm

    CoCEO,CIO,

    HeadofRisk

    Management

    2005present,CEOofLitchfieldCapitalHoldings,astructuredfinancemanager 19862005,heldvariousseniorpositionswithCreditSuisseinNewYorkandLondon,including:

    GlobalHeadofAssetBackedSecurities

    HeadofUSandEuropeanDebtCapitalMarkets

    GlobalCoHeadofCollateralizedDebtObligations

    MemberofFixedIncomeOperatingCommitteeandEuropeanInvestmentBankingOperating

    Committee

    JeffreyJ.Zimmer

    CoCEO,President

    20032008,Cofounder,PresidentandCEOofBiminiCapitalManagement,apubliclytradedREITwithupto$4bnofagencymortgageassets

    19902003,ManagingDirectoratRBS/GreenwichCapitalinMortgageBackedandAssetBackedDepartments

    19841990,workedatDrexelBurnhamLambertinInstitutionalMortgageBackedSalesDanielC.Staton

    ARMOURNon

    ExecutiveChairman

    EnterprisePresident,

    ChiefExecutive

    OfficerandDirector

    1999Present,IndependentDirectorofPublicStorage(NYSE:PSA),ChairmanoftheCompensationCommittee

    19971999,ChairmanofStorageRealtyTrust;FoundingDirectorfrom19941997

    In1999,ledmergerofStorageRealtyTrustwithPublicStorage

    19972007,PresidentoftheWalnutGroupandStatonCapital,privateinvestmentfirms 19931997,COOandFoundingDirectorofDukeRealtyInvestments,Inc.(NYSE:DRE);GeneralManagerand

    PartnerofDukeAssociatesfrom19811993

    MarcH.Bell

    ARMOURDirector

    EnterpriseChairman

    oftheBoardand

    Treasurer

    2003

    present,

    Managing

    Director

    of

    Marc

    Bell

    Capital

    Partners

    LLC,

    a

    private

    investment

    firm

    Specializesinmedia,entertainment,realestate,anddistressedassets

    2004present,PresidentandCEOofFriendFinderNetworks,Inc. 19982001,Founder,ChairmanandCEOofGlobixCorporation,afullservicecommercialISP

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    5/27

    4

    Overview

    2

    4

    1

    3 Attractiveexistingmarketopportunities Agency

    residential

    MBS

    valuations

    are

    at

    historically

    very

    attractive

    levels

    and

    can

    provide

    mid

    to

    high

    teens

    returnonequitywithmoderateleverage

    MortgagemarketdisarrayhascreatedgreaterthannormalAgencymortgagesupply

    Mortgageindustrycapacityreduction,creditandhomevaluationissuesmakeprepaymentsmuchmoreinelastic

    Managementteam,relationshipsandinfrastructure

    ARMOURwillbemanagedbyexperiencedmortgageandcapitalmarketsprofessionalswhohavesuccessfully

    executedmortgageinvestmentstrategies

    Relationshipswithdealersalreadyestablished

    Backofficeinplace;supportstaffidentified

    Compellingstrategyandattractive,riskadjustedreturns

    Highteens

    gross

    return

    on

    equity

    in

    agovernment

    guaranteed

    liquid

    asset

    class

    with

    moderate

    leverage

    and

    extensiveriskmitigation

    Lowdurationassetportfolioandextensiveuseofswapstolimit raterisk

    Targetedequitydurationof11.5years

    Targeting40%ofunleveredequityincash,tripletheamountofcomparableREITs

    ChangeinAgencystrategywouldrequirecharteramendmentbyshareholdervote

    Transactionstructureandmetrics

    Enterprisemanagementcancelling6.15mmexistingshares(98%offounders shares)toreducedilutiontoexisting

    shareholders

    SubstantialcommitmentfromEnterprisesponsorsofupto$17.5million,includingupto$10millionincommonshares

    Warrantstrikemovedto$11.00;expirationmovedto2012

    Aggregatetransactioncostsapproximately50%lessthantraditionalIPO

    Attractivevaluationrelativetocomparables

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    6/27

    5

    ARMOURInvestmentStrategy

    Mid tohighteensgrossequityreturninaU.S.Agencyguaranteedliquidassetclass

    ARMOURbelievesthenextmoveinratesislikelytobeupandincorporatesa

    significantamountofratehedginginitsstrategy

    Nonetheless,todayslowratefinancingenvironmentseemslikelytopersistfora

    while

    Income

    Valuation

    ARMOURcreatedatjustoverbookvalueapproximately1.04x

    MedianpubliclytradedAgencyREITscurrentlyvaluedat1.12xBookValueand

    1.32xHistoricalBookValue

    Continuedmid tohigh teensdividendperformancemaydrivefurthermultiple

    expansion

    Risk

    Management

    Risksaddressedandreducedthrough:

    Lowgrossassetduration(2.02.5)

    Rateprotectionfrom6065%swapofnontrueARMpositions

    Conservative(fast)

    prepayment

    assumptions

    built

    into

    yields

    Substantialliquidity40%ofunleveredequityincashNotes:

    (1) Financialdataasof3/31/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09

    (2) Financialdataasof6/30/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09.Bookvaluecalculatedascommonequitypershareandhistoricalbookvaluecalculatedas

    commonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomeper share

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    7/27

    6

    ARMOURsObjectiveisSuperiorRiskAdjustedReturns

    ARMOURis100%investedinU.S.Agencyguaranteedassets

    ARMOUR's riskmanagement

    and

    liquidity

    strategies

    mitigate

    funding,

    rate change

    and

    prepayment

    risks:

    Lowgrossassetdurationportfolio(2.5orlower)

    Extensiveuseofswaps(6065%oftrueARMs swapped)

    Maintainhighcashbalancestoprovidefinancialflexibility(40%ofunleveredequityincash)

    Lowequityduration(balancesheetduration)throughtheuseofswapsandcash(1.5orlower)

    Conservative(faster)

    prepayment

    assumptions

    used

    in

    booking

    the yields

    on

    its

    investments

    ARMOURs expectedprepaymentrateisatthehighendofhistoricalexperience

    SlowerprepaymentswillcauseARMOURs portfolioyieldtorise

    Unemployment,housepricedepreciation,andrisingratesacttodepressprepaymentrates

    ARMOURwill

    produce

    mid

    to

    high

    teens

    returns

    (fully

    distributed)

    in

    todays

    market,

    with

    tightly

    controlledrisks

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    8/27

    7

    AttractiveMarketOpportunity

    Todaysmarket

    conditions

    are

    exceptionally

    favorable

    for

    the

    implementation

    of

    ARMOURs

    business

    plan

    Agencymortgagespreadsarehistoricallyveryattractivevs.swapsandfundingratesValuation

    Supply Thefreezeinthenonagencysecuritizationmarketanddismantlingofthe

    independentprivatelabelmortgageindustryforcesmostnewmortgagesthrough

    theAgencies

    Borrowers

    Borrowershavebecomeinelasticintheirabilitytorefinance,duetodeteriorating

    householdcreditanddecreasinghousingprices

    Mortgagerefinancingcapacityhasalsobeengreatlyreduced

    As

    a

    result,

    prepayment

    speeds

    and

    volatility

    are

    likely

    to

    both be

    reduced

    Government U.S.GovernmentsupportforFNMAandFHLMCisnolongerambiguous,however

    Agencysecurityprices/yieldsdonotfullyreflectthissupport

    InterestRates

    Favorablelowfundingratesandthesteepyieldcurveboostyieldsandarelikelyto

    persistthoughthe

    ARMOUR

    business

    can

    be

    profitable

    in

    most

    yield

    curve

    environments

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    9/27

    8

    Example:Two

    Year

    Swap

    Rate

    vs.

    the

    FNMA

    15

    Year

    5.5%

    Pass

    Through

    Yield

    MortgageValuationsHistoricallyAttractivevs.SwapRates

    Sprea

    d

    Difference

    AbsoluteRa

    tes

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    10/27

    9

    ARMOURProxyPortfolioSnapshot

    Noon Wednesday8/26/09TimeandDatePortfoliowasCalculated

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    11/27

    10

    ProxyPortfolio

    Detailsgenerated

    from

    live

    dealer

    offerings

    and

    live

    market

    prices

    Pool#4Pool#3Pool#2Pool#1

    102.375105.187105.718105.133104.723DollarPriceatOffering

    3.251%

    1.82

    39.5

    5.06%

    100.00%

    Weighted

    Average

    3.572

    2.4

    40

    5.0530

    30.00%

    PrePayPenalty

    Hybrid

    (14mthold5/1)

    FNMA&FreddieMACMortgagePools

    2.907

    1.4

    50

    5.6620

    21.50%

    SeasonedHigh

    Coupon7/1

    (now4/1)

    3.5042.996AssetClassWeightedAverageCurrentYield

    2.70.9YieldBook

    Gross

    Average

    Asset

    Duration

    5918WeightedAverageMonthstoReset

    3.8015.5140WeightedAverageCoupon

    20.00%28.50%AssetClassPercentageofPortfolio

    NewIssue5/1

    LowCoupon

    ARM

    14Months

    toReset

    Source:Bloomberg,ARMOURanalysis

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    12/27

    11

    ARMOURProxyPortfolioYieldandPrepaymentStressTest

    ArmoursProxy

    Portfolio

    yield

    remains

    robust

    even

    at

    significantly

    stressed

    prepayment

    speeds

    Source:BloombergMortgageResearch(type"BMMI")isthesourceofthehistorcalFNMA12MonthLiborResetNonConvertibleHybridARMCPRdata

    Notes:

    (1)2002productionprecededhousingboomandhadcouponswhichwereapproximately175basispointshigherthantoday'scoupons

    (2)Fortoday'snewissuelowcoupon5/1's,dealersanticipate15CPRlifespeeds

    (3)The2002vintage5/1producthadacoupon175basispointshigherandprecededtherunupinhousingprices.Notethatthenextfastestyearwas2003at28.7CPR

    78.8CPR

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    13/27

    12

    GrossROEOpportunity

    Detailsgenerated

    from

    live

    dealer

    offerings

    and

    live

    market

    prices

    LeveredPortfolio $ 1,706,977,810 3.251% 55,498,372$ 27.75%

    REPOBorrowings

    $

    1,613,094,030

    0.385% (6,210,412)$3.11%

    UnleveredEquityinCash $ 39,512,488 0.300% 118,537$ 0.06%

    UnleveredEquityinBonds $ 59,268,732 3.251% 1,926,984$ 0.96%

    GrossIncome(1)>> 51,333,481$ 25.67% (12,305,685)$ 6.15%

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    14/27

    13

    Mid toHighTeensROEOpportunitiesToday

    ProxyportfoliogrossROEopportunities,inclusiveoffinancingandhedges,sinceMay08haveranged

    from14%to26%at8xdebttoequityleverage

    Assumes6065%ofnontrueARMassetsareswappedout

    Assumesgrossassetdurationatorbelow2.5

    Assumesequitydurationatorbelow1.5

    19.51%As

    of

    8/26,with62.1%

    ofNonTrue

    ARMAssets

    SwappedOut

    Source:Bloomberg,ARMOURanalysis

    8xDebttoEquityLeverage5/2/08 8/26/09

    12.00

    14.00

    16.00

    18.00

    20.00

    22.00

    24.00

    26.00

    05/02/08 08/05/08 11/08/08 02/11/09 05/17/09 8/26/09

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    15/27

    14

    Ticker Stock Price

    Market Cap

    ($mm)2Q 2009 Cashas % of Equity 2Q 2009 P/BV

    2Q 2009P/Historical BV Dividend Yield

    NLY $17.49 $9,521 15.6% 1.12x 1.34x 11.4%

    MFA 7.83 1,741 17.1 1.06 1.05 11.2

    HTS 30.09 1,089 10.8 1.26 1.41 14.0

    CMO 13.88 880 13.3 1.23 1.43 16.1

    ANH 7.51 754 0.1 1.04 1.09 16.0

    AGNC 26.06 391 22.2 1.26 1.32 13.0

    CYS 13.98 254 19.4 1.10 0.82 na

    Median 15.6% 1.12x 1.32x 14.5%

    PubliclyTradedAgencyREITs

    Source:FactSet,SNL;marketdataasof8/26/09;financialdataasof6/30/09

    Notes:

    (1) 2nd Quarter2009Price/BookValuecalculatedascommonequitypershare

    (2) 2nd Quarter2009Price/HistoricalBookValuecalculatedascommonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomepershare

    (Anworth)

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    16/27

    15

    NoRedemption MaxRedemption

    ProFormaEquityValue($mm), $237.3 $100.2

    SharesOutstanding(#mm) 25.1 10.8ProFormaBVPS $9.45 $9.32

    Priceper

    Share

    (8/26/09)

    $9.86

    $9.86

    Price/ProFormaBVPS 1.04x 1.06x

    AgencyREITMedianP/BVPS 1.12x 1.12x

    InvestmentOpportunity

    Investmentstructure

    and

    elimination

    of

    sponsor

    promote

    creates

    pro

    forma

    company

    at

    an

    attractive

    valuationrelativetopubliclytradedpeers

    Notes: Reflects6.15mmsharesretiredfromESTsponsors;doesnotincludeeffectofoutofthemoneywarrants

    (1) Assumes14.3mmsharesrepurchasedatcashintrustvalueof$9.98pershare

    (2) Assumesofferingfeesanddeferredunderwriters expenseof$9.9mminNoRedemptionand$5.6mminMaxRedemption scenarios

    (3) EnterprisefinancialdataasofMarch31,2009

    (4) IncludesAGNC,ANH,CMO,CYS,HTS,MFAandNLY;marketdataasofAugust26,2009;financialdataasofJune30,2009

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    17/27

    16

    TransactionStructure

    MergerSteps ProFormaCompany

    Enterprise

    Public

    Shareholders

    Enterprise

    AcquisitionCorp.

    ARMOUR

    MergerCorp.

    Armour

    Residential

    REIT

    Merger

    EnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.mergeswith

    ARMOURMergerCorp.

    ArmourResidentialREITis100%ownerof

    MergedEntity

    NewARMOUR

    Public

    Shareholders

    Armour

    ResidentialREIT

    Armour

    Residential

    ManagementLLC

    Management

    Agreement

    EnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.sharesexchangedfor

    ArmourResidentialREITshares

    ArmourResidentialManagementLLCestablishes

    managementagreementwithREIT

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    18/27

    17

    InvestmentSummary

    Market

    Opportunity

    Historicallyattractivemortgagevaluationsversusswapsandfundingrates

    Beneficialandpersistentrateenvironment

    Benignprepaymentenvironmentduetoborrowerinelasticity,facilitateshedging

    andlowersrisk

    InvestmentTeam

    Deep,broad

    experience

    and

    disciplined

    investment

    approach

    Fortyeightyearsofcombinedexperienceincludesmortgagesandassetbacked

    securitiesandAgencymortgageREITmanagement

    Establishedrelationshipsandinfrastructure

    StructureCreates

    AttractiveReturn

    Profile

    ESTspublicstockholdersexpectedtocreateARMOURat1.04xinitial Book

    Value vs.1.12x

    median

    Book

    Value and

    1.32x

    Historical

    Book

    Value for

    Agency

    publicpeers

    Hightargetedreturnonequitywithmoderateleverage

    Conservative

    Approach

    InvestinginAgencyonlyassetswithU.S.Agencyguarantee

    Extensiveuseofswaps

    Lowequity

    duration

    ConservationofunleveredequityincashNotes:

    (1) Financialdataasof3/31/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09

    (2) Financialdataasof6/30/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09.Bookvaluecalculatedascommonequitypershareandhistoricalbookvaluecalculatedas

    commonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomeper share

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    19/27

    18

    AppendixA

    ManagementandBoardBiographies

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    20/27

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    21/27

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    22/27

    21

    BoardMemberBiographies

    ThomasK.Guba (IndependentDirector)Mr.Guba hasbeentheseniorexecutiveorheadtraderofvariousWallStreet

    mortgageandgovernmentdepartmentsinhisthirtyfouryearsinthesecuritiesbusiness.From2002through2008,Mr.Guba was

    PresidentandPrincipaloftheWinterGroup,afullyintegratedmortgageplatformandmoneymanagementfirm.Priorto2002,he

    wasManagingDirectorofStructuredProductSalesatCreditSuisseFirstBoston(2000through2002),ManagingDirectorand

    DepartmentManagerofMortgagesandU.S.TreasuriesatDonaldson LufkinJenrette,whichwassubsequentlypurchasedbyCredit

    SuisseFirst

    Boston

    (1994

    through

    2000),

    Executive

    Vice

    President

    and

    Head

    of

    Global

    Fixed

    Income

    at

    Smith

    Barney

    (1993

    through

    1994),ManagingDirectoroftheMortgageandU.S.TreasuriesDepartmentatMabon Securities(1990through1993),SeniorVice

    PresidentandMortgageDepartmentManageratDrexelBurnhamLambert(1984through1990),SeniorVicePresidentandHead

    MortgageTraderatPaineWebber(1977through1984)andatrader ofmortgagedbackedsecuritiesatBache&Co.(1975through

    1977). Mr.Guba wasalsoaSecondLieutenant,MilitaryPoliceCorps,intheUnitedStatesArmy(1972through1974). Mr.Guba

    receivedhisBAinpoliticalsciencefromCornellUniversityin1972andhisMBAinfinancefromNewYorkUniversityin1979.

    JackJack P.Hollihan III(IndependentDirector) Mr.Hollihan hasover25yearsofinvestmentbankingandinvestment

    experience.Mr.Hollihan wasformerlythe HeadofEuropeanInvestmentBankingforBancofAmericaSecurities(BAS),where

    hewasamemberoftheBASEuropeanCapitalCommitteeandBoard, andwherehehadresponsibilityforaloanbookof$8

    Billion.Priortothat,Mr.Hollihan wasHeadofGlobalProjectandAssetBasedFinanceandLeasingatMorganStanleyandwasa

    memberoftheMorganStanleyInternationalInvestmentBankingOperatingCommittee.Inthatcapacity,hemanaged$45billion

    inassetbasedandstructuredfinancingsandleasingarrangements.HeisaformertrusteeofAmericanFinancialRealtyTrust

    (NYSE:AFR)

    and

    currently

    the

    lead

    independent

    director

    of

    City

    Financial

    Investment

    Company

    Limited

    (London)

    and

    Executive

    ChairmanofLitchfieldCapitalHoldings(Connecticut).Mr.Hollihan receivedB.S.(Wharton)andB.A.degreesfromtheUniversityof

    Pennsylvania,andaJ.D.fromtheUniversityofVirginiaSchoolofLaw.

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    23/27

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    24/27

    23

    AppendixB

    SupplementalMaterials

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    25/27

    24

    InvestorDecisions

    Bothcommon

    shareholders

    and

    warrant

    holders

    must

    vote

    to

    ensure completion

    of

    acquisition

    CommonShareholder

    Acquisition

    Approved

    Acquisition

    Rejected

    VoteYes

    VoteNo

    ESTshareconvertedtoARMOURREITshare

    ESTshareholderreceivescash($9.98)

    Ifunabletocompleteatransactionby11/7/09,

    trustliquidatedtocommonshareholders

    Decision

    WarrantHolder

    VoteYes to

    AmendTerms

    ofWarrant

    VoteNo

    CommonSharesApprove

    Acquisition

    Amendedwarrantsremainoutstanding

    Warrantsworthlessunlesstransactioncompleted

    by11/7/09

    Acquisitionisrejected

    Decision

    Common

    SharesReject

    Acquisition

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    26/27

    25

    BookValueperShareAnalysis

    Thefollowing

    analysis

    illustrates

    the

    pro

    forma

    book

    value

    per

    share,

    assuming

    no

    investor

    redemptionsandmaximuminvestorredemptions

    Notes: Financialdataasof3/31/09,marketdataasof8/26/09

    (1) IncludesdividendpaymenttomaintainREITeligibilityand otherpurchaseaccountingadjustments.Seemergerproxyforfulldetail

    Assumptions

    DeferredUnderwriterFees 3.00%

    Trust/Share $9.98

    CurrentSharePrice(8/26/09) $9.86

    NoRedemption

    Max

    Redemption

    EquityAnalysis($)

    CashinTrust(3/31/09) 249,434,399 249,434,399

    Fees&Expenses:

    AdvisorandDeferredUnderwriterFees 8,002,584 3,708,447

    Legal&Accounting 1,175,000 1,175,000

    OtherTransactionExpenses 727,300 727,300

    TotalFees&Expenses 9,904,884 5,610,747

    Less:Cash

    Used

    for

    Redemption 143,137,912

    Less:OtherAdjustments1

    2,252,816 509,245

    ProFormaEquity 237,276,699 100,176,496

    ShareCount

    SharesOutstanding 25,000,000 25,000,000

    SharesRepurchased 14,346,248

    BoardShares 100,000 100,000

    ProForma

    Shares 25,100,000 10,753,752

    ProFormaBVPS($) 9.45 9.32

    Price/BVPS(x) 1.04 1.06

  • 8/14/2019 Revised EST Armour

    27/27