Revised EST Armour
Transcript of Revised EST Armour
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ProposedMergerwith
100%AGENCY
RESIDENTIAL
MORTGAGE
REIT
August26,2009
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TransactionHighlights
ARMOURisanexternallymanagedrealestateinvestmenttrustthatwillinvest,onaleveredbasis,in
Agencyresidentialmortgagebackedsecurities
Transactionwillprovideupto$250millionofequitycapital
Managementteamledbytwoexecutiveswithfortyeightyearsofcombinedexperienceinmortgages,
assetbackedsecuritiesandAgencymortgageREITmanagement
Strongfocusonriskmanagementinportfoliocompositionandhedging
Shareholderfriendlyfeestructure:1.5%ofshareholders equity;0.75%above$1billion;noincentive/
performancefees
Currentlypricedatapproximately1.04xbookvaluepershare*
StrongcorporategovernanceseparateChairmanandCEOroles
Expectedclose:4Q2009
Tradingsymbols
(NYSE
Amex
LLC
US):
EST
(stock),
EST.WS
(warrant),
EST.U
(unit)
ARMOURResidentialREIT,Inc.togopublicviaamergerwithEnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.
* Assumes$250milliontransaction,financialdataasofMarch31,2009andstockpriceasofAugust26,2009(seepage15forcalculation)
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TeamIntroduction
Name Current/Prior Experience
ScottJ.Ulm
CoCEO,CIO,
HeadofRisk
Management
2005present,CEOofLitchfieldCapitalHoldings,astructuredfinancemanager 19862005,heldvariousseniorpositionswithCreditSuisseinNewYorkandLondon,including:
GlobalHeadofAssetBackedSecurities
HeadofUSandEuropeanDebtCapitalMarkets
GlobalCoHeadofCollateralizedDebtObligations
MemberofFixedIncomeOperatingCommitteeandEuropeanInvestmentBankingOperating
Committee
JeffreyJ.Zimmer
CoCEO,President
20032008,Cofounder,PresidentandCEOofBiminiCapitalManagement,apubliclytradedREITwithupto$4bnofagencymortgageassets
19902003,ManagingDirectoratRBS/GreenwichCapitalinMortgageBackedandAssetBackedDepartments
19841990,workedatDrexelBurnhamLambertinInstitutionalMortgageBackedSalesDanielC.Staton
ARMOURNon
ExecutiveChairman
EnterprisePresident,
ChiefExecutive
OfficerandDirector
1999Present,IndependentDirectorofPublicStorage(NYSE:PSA),ChairmanoftheCompensationCommittee
19971999,ChairmanofStorageRealtyTrust;FoundingDirectorfrom19941997
In1999,ledmergerofStorageRealtyTrustwithPublicStorage
19972007,PresidentoftheWalnutGroupandStatonCapital,privateinvestmentfirms 19931997,COOandFoundingDirectorofDukeRealtyInvestments,Inc.(NYSE:DRE);GeneralManagerand
PartnerofDukeAssociatesfrom19811993
MarcH.Bell
ARMOURDirector
EnterpriseChairman
oftheBoardand
Treasurer
2003
present,
Managing
Director
of
Marc
Bell
Capital
Partners
LLC,
a
private
investment
firm
Specializesinmedia,entertainment,realestate,anddistressedassets
2004present,PresidentandCEOofFriendFinderNetworks,Inc. 19982001,Founder,ChairmanandCEOofGlobixCorporation,afullservicecommercialISP
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Overview
2
4
1
3 Attractiveexistingmarketopportunities Agency
residential
MBS
valuations
are
at
historically
very
attractive
levels
and
can
provide
mid
to
high
teens
returnonequitywithmoderateleverage
MortgagemarketdisarrayhascreatedgreaterthannormalAgencymortgagesupply
Mortgageindustrycapacityreduction,creditandhomevaluationissuesmakeprepaymentsmuchmoreinelastic
Managementteam,relationshipsandinfrastructure
ARMOURwillbemanagedbyexperiencedmortgageandcapitalmarketsprofessionalswhohavesuccessfully
executedmortgageinvestmentstrategies
Relationshipswithdealersalreadyestablished
Backofficeinplace;supportstaffidentified
Compellingstrategyandattractive,riskadjustedreturns
Highteens
gross
return
on
equity
in
agovernment
guaranteed
liquid
asset
class
with
moderate
leverage
and
extensiveriskmitigation
Lowdurationassetportfolioandextensiveuseofswapstolimit raterisk
Targetedequitydurationof11.5years
Targeting40%ofunleveredequityincash,tripletheamountofcomparableREITs
ChangeinAgencystrategywouldrequirecharteramendmentbyshareholdervote
Transactionstructureandmetrics
Enterprisemanagementcancelling6.15mmexistingshares(98%offounders shares)toreducedilutiontoexisting
shareholders
SubstantialcommitmentfromEnterprisesponsorsofupto$17.5million,includingupto$10millionincommonshares
Warrantstrikemovedto$11.00;expirationmovedto2012
Aggregatetransactioncostsapproximately50%lessthantraditionalIPO
Attractivevaluationrelativetocomparables
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ARMOURInvestmentStrategy
Mid tohighteensgrossequityreturninaU.S.Agencyguaranteedliquidassetclass
ARMOURbelievesthenextmoveinratesislikelytobeupandincorporatesa
significantamountofratehedginginitsstrategy
Nonetheless,todayslowratefinancingenvironmentseemslikelytopersistfora
while
Income
Valuation
ARMOURcreatedatjustoverbookvalueapproximately1.04x
MedianpubliclytradedAgencyREITscurrentlyvaluedat1.12xBookValueand
1.32xHistoricalBookValue
Continuedmid tohigh teensdividendperformancemaydrivefurthermultiple
expansion
Risk
Management
Risksaddressedandreducedthrough:
Lowgrossassetduration(2.02.5)
Rateprotectionfrom6065%swapofnontrueARMpositions
Conservative(fast)
prepayment
assumptions
built
into
yields
Substantialliquidity40%ofunleveredequityincashNotes:
(1) Financialdataasof3/31/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09
(2) Financialdataasof6/30/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09.Bookvaluecalculatedascommonequitypershareandhistoricalbookvaluecalculatedas
commonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomeper share
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ARMOURsObjectiveisSuperiorRiskAdjustedReturns
ARMOURis100%investedinU.S.Agencyguaranteedassets
ARMOUR's riskmanagement
and
liquidity
strategies
mitigate
funding,
rate change
and
prepayment
risks:
Lowgrossassetdurationportfolio(2.5orlower)
Extensiveuseofswaps(6065%oftrueARMs swapped)
Maintainhighcashbalancestoprovidefinancialflexibility(40%ofunleveredequityincash)
Lowequityduration(balancesheetduration)throughtheuseofswapsandcash(1.5orlower)
Conservative(faster)
prepayment
assumptions
used
in
booking
the yields
on
its
investments
ARMOURs expectedprepaymentrateisatthehighendofhistoricalexperience
SlowerprepaymentswillcauseARMOURs portfolioyieldtorise
Unemployment,housepricedepreciation,andrisingratesacttodepressprepaymentrates
ARMOURwill
produce
mid
to
high
teens
returns
(fully
distributed)
in
todays
market,
with
tightly
controlledrisks
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AttractiveMarketOpportunity
Todaysmarket
conditions
are
exceptionally
favorable
for
the
implementation
of
ARMOURs
business
plan
Agencymortgagespreadsarehistoricallyveryattractivevs.swapsandfundingratesValuation
Supply Thefreezeinthenonagencysecuritizationmarketanddismantlingofthe
independentprivatelabelmortgageindustryforcesmostnewmortgagesthrough
theAgencies
Borrowers
Borrowershavebecomeinelasticintheirabilitytorefinance,duetodeteriorating
householdcreditanddecreasinghousingprices
Mortgagerefinancingcapacityhasalsobeengreatlyreduced
As
a
result,
prepayment
speeds
and
volatility
are
likely
to
both be
reduced
Government U.S.GovernmentsupportforFNMAandFHLMCisnolongerambiguous,however
Agencysecurityprices/yieldsdonotfullyreflectthissupport
InterestRates
Favorablelowfundingratesandthesteepyieldcurveboostyieldsandarelikelyto
persistthoughthe
ARMOUR
business
can
be
profitable
in
most
yield
curve
environments
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Example:Two
Year
Swap
Rate
vs.
the
FNMA
15
Year
5.5%
Pass
Through
Yield
MortgageValuationsHistoricallyAttractivevs.SwapRates
Sprea
d
Difference
AbsoluteRa
tes
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ARMOURProxyPortfolioSnapshot
Noon Wednesday8/26/09TimeandDatePortfoliowasCalculated
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ProxyPortfolio
Detailsgenerated
from
live
dealer
offerings
and
live
market
prices
Pool#4Pool#3Pool#2Pool#1
102.375105.187105.718105.133104.723DollarPriceatOffering
3.251%
1.82
39.5
5.06%
100.00%
Weighted
Average
3.572
2.4
40
5.0530
30.00%
PrePayPenalty
Hybrid
(14mthold5/1)
FNMA&FreddieMACMortgagePools
2.907
1.4
50
5.6620
21.50%
SeasonedHigh
Coupon7/1
(now4/1)
3.5042.996AssetClassWeightedAverageCurrentYield
2.70.9YieldBook
Gross
Average
Asset
Duration
5918WeightedAverageMonthstoReset
3.8015.5140WeightedAverageCoupon
20.00%28.50%AssetClassPercentageofPortfolio
NewIssue5/1
LowCoupon
ARM
14Months
toReset
Source:Bloomberg,ARMOURanalysis
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ARMOURProxyPortfolioYieldandPrepaymentStressTest
ArmoursProxy
Portfolio
yield
remains
robust
even
at
significantly
stressed
prepayment
speeds
Source:BloombergMortgageResearch(type"BMMI")isthesourceofthehistorcalFNMA12MonthLiborResetNonConvertibleHybridARMCPRdata
Notes:
(1)2002productionprecededhousingboomandhadcouponswhichwereapproximately175basispointshigherthantoday'scoupons
(2)Fortoday'snewissuelowcoupon5/1's,dealersanticipate15CPRlifespeeds
(3)The2002vintage5/1producthadacoupon175basispointshigherandprecededtherunupinhousingprices.Notethatthenextfastestyearwas2003at28.7CPR
78.8CPR
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GrossROEOpportunity
Detailsgenerated
from
live
dealer
offerings
and
live
market
prices
LeveredPortfolio $ 1,706,977,810 3.251% 55,498,372$ 27.75%
REPOBorrowings
$
1,613,094,030
0.385% (6,210,412)$3.11%
UnleveredEquityinCash $ 39,512,488 0.300% 118,537$ 0.06%
UnleveredEquityinBonds $ 59,268,732 3.251% 1,926,984$ 0.96%
GrossIncome(1)>> 51,333,481$ 25.67% (12,305,685)$ 6.15%
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Mid toHighTeensROEOpportunitiesToday
ProxyportfoliogrossROEopportunities,inclusiveoffinancingandhedges,sinceMay08haveranged
from14%to26%at8xdebttoequityleverage
Assumes6065%ofnontrueARMassetsareswappedout
Assumesgrossassetdurationatorbelow2.5
Assumesequitydurationatorbelow1.5
19.51%As
of
8/26,with62.1%
ofNonTrue
ARMAssets
SwappedOut
Source:Bloomberg,ARMOURanalysis
8xDebttoEquityLeverage5/2/08 8/26/09
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
05/02/08 08/05/08 11/08/08 02/11/09 05/17/09 8/26/09
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Ticker Stock Price
Market Cap
($mm)2Q 2009 Cashas % of Equity 2Q 2009 P/BV
2Q 2009P/Historical BV Dividend Yield
NLY $17.49 $9,521 15.6% 1.12x 1.34x 11.4%
MFA 7.83 1,741 17.1 1.06 1.05 11.2
HTS 30.09 1,089 10.8 1.26 1.41 14.0
CMO 13.88 880 13.3 1.23 1.43 16.1
ANH 7.51 754 0.1 1.04 1.09 16.0
AGNC 26.06 391 22.2 1.26 1.32 13.0
CYS 13.98 254 19.4 1.10 0.82 na
Median 15.6% 1.12x 1.32x 14.5%
PubliclyTradedAgencyREITs
Source:FactSet,SNL;marketdataasof8/26/09;financialdataasof6/30/09
Notes:
(1) 2nd Quarter2009Price/BookValuecalculatedascommonequitypershare
(2) 2nd Quarter2009Price/HistoricalBookValuecalculatedascommonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomepershare
(Anworth)
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NoRedemption MaxRedemption
ProFormaEquityValue($mm), $237.3 $100.2
SharesOutstanding(#mm) 25.1 10.8ProFormaBVPS $9.45 $9.32
Priceper
Share
(8/26/09)
$9.86
$9.86
Price/ProFormaBVPS 1.04x 1.06x
AgencyREITMedianP/BVPS 1.12x 1.12x
InvestmentOpportunity
Investmentstructure
and
elimination
of
sponsor
promote
creates
pro
forma
company
at
an
attractive
valuationrelativetopubliclytradedpeers
Notes: Reflects6.15mmsharesretiredfromESTsponsors;doesnotincludeeffectofoutofthemoneywarrants
(1) Assumes14.3mmsharesrepurchasedatcashintrustvalueof$9.98pershare
(2) Assumesofferingfeesanddeferredunderwriters expenseof$9.9mminNoRedemptionand$5.6mminMaxRedemption scenarios
(3) EnterprisefinancialdataasofMarch31,2009
(4) IncludesAGNC,ANH,CMO,CYS,HTS,MFAandNLY;marketdataasofAugust26,2009;financialdataasofJune30,2009
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TransactionStructure
MergerSteps ProFormaCompany
Enterprise
Public
Shareholders
Enterprise
AcquisitionCorp.
ARMOUR
MergerCorp.
Armour
Residential
REIT
Merger
EnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.mergeswith
ARMOURMergerCorp.
ArmourResidentialREITis100%ownerof
MergedEntity
NewARMOUR
Public
Shareholders
Armour
ResidentialREIT
Armour
Residential
ManagementLLC
Management
Agreement
EnterpriseAcquisitionCorp.sharesexchangedfor
ArmourResidentialREITshares
ArmourResidentialManagementLLCestablishes
managementagreementwithREIT
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InvestmentSummary
Market
Opportunity
Historicallyattractivemortgagevaluationsversusswapsandfundingrates
Beneficialandpersistentrateenvironment
Benignprepaymentenvironmentduetoborrowerinelasticity,facilitateshedging
andlowersrisk
InvestmentTeam
Deep,broad
experience
and
disciplined
investment
approach
Fortyeightyearsofcombinedexperienceincludesmortgagesandassetbacked
securitiesandAgencymortgageREITmanagement
Establishedrelationshipsandinfrastructure
StructureCreates
AttractiveReturn
Profile
ESTspublicstockholdersexpectedtocreateARMOURat1.04xinitial Book
Value vs.1.12x
median
Book
Value and
1.32x
Historical
Book
Value for
Agency
publicpeers
Hightargetedreturnonequitywithmoderateleverage
Conservative
Approach
InvestinginAgencyonlyassetswithU.S.Agencyguarantee
Extensiveuseofswaps
Lowequity
duration
ConservationofunleveredequityincashNotes:
(1) Financialdataasof3/31/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09
(2) Financialdataasof6/30/09andmarketdataasof8/26/09.Bookvaluecalculatedascommonequitypershareandhistoricalbookvaluecalculatedas
commonequitylessaccumulatedothercomprehensiveincomeper share
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AppendixA
ManagementandBoardBiographies
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BoardMemberBiographies
ThomasK.Guba (IndependentDirector)Mr.Guba hasbeentheseniorexecutiveorheadtraderofvariousWallStreet
mortgageandgovernmentdepartmentsinhisthirtyfouryearsinthesecuritiesbusiness.From2002through2008,Mr.Guba was
PresidentandPrincipaloftheWinterGroup,afullyintegratedmortgageplatformandmoneymanagementfirm.Priorto2002,he
wasManagingDirectorofStructuredProductSalesatCreditSuisseFirstBoston(2000through2002),ManagingDirectorand
DepartmentManagerofMortgagesandU.S.TreasuriesatDonaldson LufkinJenrette,whichwassubsequentlypurchasedbyCredit
SuisseFirst
Boston
(1994
through
2000),
Executive
Vice
President
and
Head
of
Global
Fixed
Income
at
Smith
Barney
(1993
through
1994),ManagingDirectoroftheMortgageandU.S.TreasuriesDepartmentatMabon Securities(1990through1993),SeniorVice
PresidentandMortgageDepartmentManageratDrexelBurnhamLambert(1984through1990),SeniorVicePresidentandHead
MortgageTraderatPaineWebber(1977through1984)andatrader ofmortgagedbackedsecuritiesatBache&Co.(1975through
1977). Mr.Guba wasalsoaSecondLieutenant,MilitaryPoliceCorps,intheUnitedStatesArmy(1972through1974). Mr.Guba
receivedhisBAinpoliticalsciencefromCornellUniversityin1972andhisMBAinfinancefromNewYorkUniversityin1979.
JackJack P.Hollihan III(IndependentDirector) Mr.Hollihan hasover25yearsofinvestmentbankingandinvestment
experience.Mr.Hollihan wasformerlythe HeadofEuropeanInvestmentBankingforBancofAmericaSecurities(BAS),where
hewasamemberoftheBASEuropeanCapitalCommitteeandBoard, andwherehehadresponsibilityforaloanbookof$8
Billion.Priortothat,Mr.Hollihan wasHeadofGlobalProjectandAssetBasedFinanceandLeasingatMorganStanleyandwasa
memberoftheMorganStanleyInternationalInvestmentBankingOperatingCommittee.Inthatcapacity,hemanaged$45billion
inassetbasedandstructuredfinancingsandleasingarrangements.HeisaformertrusteeofAmericanFinancialRealtyTrust
(NYSE:AFR)
and
currently
the
lead
independent
director
of
City
Financial
Investment
Company
Limited
(London)
and
Executive
ChairmanofLitchfieldCapitalHoldings(Connecticut).Mr.Hollihan receivedB.S.(Wharton)andB.A.degreesfromtheUniversityof
Pennsylvania,andaJ.D.fromtheUniversityofVirginiaSchoolofLaw.
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AppendixB
SupplementalMaterials
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InvestorDecisions
Bothcommon
shareholders
and
warrant
holders
must
vote
to
ensure completion
of
acquisition
CommonShareholder
Acquisition
Approved
Acquisition
Rejected
VoteYes
VoteNo
ESTshareconvertedtoARMOURREITshare
ESTshareholderreceivescash($9.98)
Ifunabletocompleteatransactionby11/7/09,
trustliquidatedtocommonshareholders
Decision
WarrantHolder
VoteYes to
AmendTerms
ofWarrant
VoteNo
CommonSharesApprove
Acquisition
Amendedwarrantsremainoutstanding
Warrantsworthlessunlesstransactioncompleted
by11/7/09
Acquisitionisrejected
Decision
Common
SharesReject
Acquisition
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BookValueperShareAnalysis
Thefollowing
analysis
illustrates
the
pro
forma
book
value
per
share,
assuming
no
investor
redemptionsandmaximuminvestorredemptions
Notes: Financialdataasof3/31/09,marketdataasof8/26/09
(1) IncludesdividendpaymenttomaintainREITeligibilityand otherpurchaseaccountingadjustments.Seemergerproxyforfulldetail
Assumptions
DeferredUnderwriterFees 3.00%
Trust/Share $9.98
CurrentSharePrice(8/26/09) $9.86
NoRedemption
Max
Redemption
EquityAnalysis($)
CashinTrust(3/31/09) 249,434,399 249,434,399
Fees&Expenses:
AdvisorandDeferredUnderwriterFees 8,002,584 3,708,447
Legal&Accounting 1,175,000 1,175,000
OtherTransactionExpenses 727,300 727,300
TotalFees&Expenses 9,904,884 5,610,747
Less:Cash
Used
for
Redemption 143,137,912
Less:OtherAdjustments1
2,252,816 509,245
ProFormaEquity 237,276,699 100,176,496
ShareCount
SharesOutstanding 25,000,000 25,000,000
SharesRepurchased 14,346,248
BoardShares 100,000 100,000
ProForma
Shares 25,100,000 10,753,752
ProFormaBVPS($) 9.45 9.32
Price/BVPS(x) 1.04 1.06
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