Review of Northeast Texas 2015 Ozone Season · Effect of Excluding January 28, 2015 •If January...
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Review of Northeast Texas 2015 Ozone Season
Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees
December 9, 2015
Sue Kemball-Cook, Lynsey Parker, Thomas Pavlovic and Greg Yarwood
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Today’s Presentation
• Update on ozone Design Values and trends
• Implications for attainment
• Review of 2015 ozone season
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Northeast Texas CAMS Monitors
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• In 2015, decrease at Karnack to 62 ppb, increase at Longview to 68 ppb, no change at Tyler (66 ppb)
• Lowest 4th high values ever recorded at Tyler and Karnack4
2015: 70 ppb
2008: 75 ppb
1997: 84 ppb
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• 2015 had the lowest recorded design values for all monitors
• Design values for all three monitors less than the 70 ppb 2015 NAAQS
2015: 70 ppb
2008: 75 ppb
1997: 84 ppb
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4th High MDA8 Ozone Needed to Attain the 70 ppb NAAQS in 2016
• EPA will use 2014-2016 data in attainment designations under the 2015 NAAQS
• Since 2008, Longview has had 1 year (2011) with 4th high MDA8 >78 ppb
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4th High MDA8 Ozone Concentrations
Longview (C19) Tyler (C82) Karnack (C85)
Needed in 2016
for Attainment≤ 78 ppb ≤ 80 ppb ≤ 84 ppb
Range since 2008 66 – 82 ppb 66 – 78 ppb 62 – 76 ppb
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2015 Days with Daily Max 8-hour Ozone > 65 ppb
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Shading shows monitor with highest value of daily maximum 8-hour ozone.
Daily Maximum 8-hour Ozone (ppb)
Day Longview Tyler Karnack
January 28 61 68 58
April 30 61 66 58
May 1 70 63 53
June 6 83 59 47
August 3 68 62 58
August 16 66 61 51
August 27 67 56 53
August 28 71 64 54
August 29 61 67 63
September 23 60 73 53
4th high value 68 66 62
• 10 Days with MDA8 > 65 ppb at a minimum of one East Texas monitor
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2015 Days with 8-hour Ozone > 65 ppb
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• Orange shading shows days exceeding the 2015 NAAQS of 70 ppb
• At 65 ppb threshold, transport from the south becomes more important
• Evaluated all days for possible fire impacts
– January 28 should be analyzed as a potential exceptional event
DayMonitor and MDA8 (ppb)
Power Plant
Impact
≥60 ppb Regional
Contribution
Possible HRVOC Impact
Unknown Local Contribution
Comments
28-Jan Tyler (68) xAtypically warm winter day, possible fire impact, S to SW winds
30-Apr Tyler (66) x x Unusual westerly wind direction, DFW impact at Tyler
1-May Longview (70) x xSlow northerly winds, rapid ozone formation, little SO2, likely HRVOC impact
6-June Longview (83) xSlow S to SE winds, SO2 present with ozone, likely coal-fired power plant impact
3-Aug Longview (68) x x xHigh regional background, shifting, stagnant winds, some SO2, multiple local sources
16-Aug Longview (66) x xModerate regional background, slow shifting winds,moderate SO2 indicates coal-fired power plant impact
27-Aug Longview (67) x x xModerate regional background, slow shifting winds,moderate SO2 indicates coal-fired power plant impact, other local source, possible HRVOC impact
28-Aug Longview (71) x x xModerate regional background, S to SE winds, moderate SO2, coal-fired power plant plume impact, other local source, possible HRVOC impact
29-Aug Tyler(67) x xHigh regional background, moderately fast S to SW winds
23-Sep Tyler (73) xModerate regional background, easterly winds,unidentified source impacts.
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REVIEW OF 2015 OZONE SEASON
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January 28, 2015: 68 ppb
• Background ozone in East Texas ~60 ppb; highest ozone in Northeast Texas
• Tyler ozone peak at 8 pm, well after sunset at ~6 pm
• Southerly winds, strongest at Tyler
Back Trajectories Ending at 8 PM
TylerLongview
Karnack
64
48
71
71
38
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January 28, 2015Satellite Fire Detections
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January 28, 2015
• Elevated PM2.5readings in the morning and late afternoon at Karnack– Consistent with
intermittent presence of smoke
– No PM2.5 monitoring at Tyler
• Satellite image consistent with smoke in the region– Does not indicate
whether particulates were at surface or aloft
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Wildfires and SmokeJanuary 28, 2015
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HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Backward Trajectories
Ending at 2AM UTC Jan 29
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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January 28, 2015 Temperature
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January 2015 Temperature plots at KTYR station.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20150128.html
Date Daily
Max
temp at
Tyler
KTYR
Jan 28, 2015 80 F
Climatalogical
January
56 F
Climatalogical
May
82 F
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January 28, 2015: Summary
• Unusual January high ozone day– Low sun angle, 1-hour average ozone maximum occurs 2 hours after
sunset– Atypically warm conditions
• All 3 monitors ~60 ppb throughout much of the day– Some Houston, Beaumont area and NW Louisiana monitors ~60 ppb
• Weather patterns not consistent with stratospheric ozone intrusion
• Late peak at Tyler ~8 pm suggests an additional source impact– Presence of numerous fires and smoke in the region suggests fire
impact– Suspect combination of temperatures conducive to ozone formation
coupled with potential fire impact
• January 28 should be evaluated further as a possible exceptional event
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Effect of Excluding January 28, 2015
• If January 28, 2015 were determined to be an exceptional event, day would be dropped from design value calculation
• Next highest MDA8 is August 2: 65 ppb
– No change to 2013-2015 design value
– Could affect 2014-2016 design value
Could have 4th high of 81 ppb and still attain rather than 80 ppb
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Four highest MDA8 at Northeast Texas monitors in 2015
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April 30, 2015: 66 ppb
• High regional background ~60 ppb• Moderate westerly winds at surface• Unusual westerly wind direction
with back trajectories extending over DFW
• Late afternoon peak at Tyler– Little SO2 at Tyler at time of peak
Back Trajectories Ending at 5 PM
TylerLongview
Karnack
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April 30, 201524-hr Backtrajectories
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Tyler
C82
Tyler
C82
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April 30, 201524-hr Backtrajectories
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C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 61 63/3pm
Tyler 66 70/5pm
Karnack 58 61/3pm
Longview
C19
Longview
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Upper Level Weather Charts April 30 am
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Upper Level Weather Charts April 30 pm
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Surface Weather Charts April 30 am
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Surface Weather Charts April 30 pm
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Satellite Fire/Smoke Detections
• Also, a large area of light-density smoke is visible in a similar pattern as yesterday, extending from the Canadian/US border down to the Gulf Coast of Texas. Areas affected include: Manitoba, Ontario, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. This smoke originates from the agricultural burns that have been taking place the last few days around the Canadian/US border recently. High AOD most likely due to smoke for was seen over most of the afore mentioned states as indicated by GAPS animation (bottom) – Smog Blog http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_04.html
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April 30, 2015
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HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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April 30, 2015
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HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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April 30, 2015
• Elevated PM2.5
in the morning and afternoon at Karnack
• Slow westerly winds
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April 30, 2015: Summary
• Unusual westerly wind direction
• Smoke present over entire region, extending north to U.S. Canada border
– Possible fires contribute to background ozone
• HYSPLIT plot for Tyler suggests DFW impact
• Late afternoon peak at Tyler suggests impact from transport of DFW urban plume
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May 1, 2015: 70 ppb
• Regional background at ~60 ppb• Stagnant flow, generally northerly
winds• High ozone at Longview
– Rapid ozone formation in the morning hours, little SO2
– 1-hour ozone peaks at Tyler and Karnack 14-19 ppb lower
– Likely HRVOC impact at Longview
Back Trajectories Ending at 10 am
TylerLongview
Karnack
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May 1, 2015
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Longview
C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 70 79/10am
Tyler 63 65/10am
Karnack 53 60/3pm
C82
Tyler
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May 1, 2015
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HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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May 1, 2015
32
HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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May 1, 2015
• Elevated PM2.5 readings at Karnack
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June 6, 2015: 83 ppb
• Regional background at 47 ppb• Moderate southerly winds at Tyler
– Slower, shifting winds at Longview and Karnack
• High ozone at Longview – 30-47 ppb higher 1-hour ozone at
Longview compared to C82 and C85– Ozone peak coincides with SO2 and
NOx peaks, late Martin Lake impact
Back Trajectories Ending at 4 pm
TylerLongview
Karnack
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June 6, 2015
35
Longview
C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 83 96/4pm
Tyler 59 66/noon
Karnack 47 49/10am
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August 3, 2015: 68 ppb
• Regional background ~60 ppb
• High ozone throughout East Texas
• Shifting, stagnant winds
• Highest ozone at Longview – Elevated SO2 and NOx in the morning and
peak in SO2 in late afternoon
– Coal-fired power plant influence at Longview
• Possible that multiple local emissions sources affect Longview
Back Trajectories Ending at 1 pm
Tyler
Longview
Karnack
73
58
63
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August 3, 2015
37
Longview
C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 68 73/1pm
Tyler 62 67/5pm
Karnack 58 61/10am
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August 16, 2015: 66 ppb
• Regional background ~55 ppb• Moderate wind conditions
– Slow, shifting winds at Longview Tyler
– Slow easterly winds at Karnack
• Highest ozone at Longview – Presence of SO2 suggests
possible power plant impact
Back Trajectories Ending at 4 pm
Tyler
Longview Karnack
72
45
65
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August 16, 2015
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Longview
C19Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 66 72/4pm
Tyler 61 67/5pm
Karnack 51 58/1pm
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82
8
August 27, 2015: 67 ppb
• Regional background at 53 ppb• Moderate to low wind conditions
– Slower, shifting winds at Longview
• Highest ozone at Longview – Presence of SO2 and wind direction
suggest possible power plant impact
– Other local sources may contribute, possible HRVOC impact
Back Trajectories Ending at 3 pm
Tyler
Longview
Karnack,
82
53
57
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August 27, 2015
41
Longview
C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 67 82/3pm
Tyler 56 65/5pm
Karnack 53 62/noon
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88
20
August 28, 2015: 71 ppb
• Regional background ~55 ppb• Slow, SE winds at Longview• Highest ozone at Longview
– Small SO2 increase and wind direction suggest influence from Martin Lake
– Other local sources (O&G) may contribute– HRVOCs may contribute
Back Trajectories Ending at 2 pm
Tyler Longview
Karnack
88
56
74
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August 28, 2015
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Longview
C19
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 71 88/2pm
Tyler 64 74/5pm
Karnack 54 58/3pm
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August 29, 2015: 67 ppb
• Elevated regional background at 63 ppb
• Moderately strong S-SW winds• Highest ozone at Tyler
– Small amount of SO2
• Unknown local/regional sources contribute to Tyler
Back Trajectories Ending at 1pm
Tyler Longview
Karnack
62
63
72
72
43
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SO2 Sources South of Tyler
• June 2012 model SO2
• ~3 ppb SO2 at Tyler monitor location45
WA Parrish
Big Brown
Limestone
Twin Oaks
Oak Grove
SandowNot EGUs
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August 29, 2015
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Tyler
C82Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 61 64/4pm
Tyler 67 72/1pm
Karnack 63 70/2pm
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September 23, 2015: 73 ppb
• Regional background at 53 ppb
• Moderate northeasterly winds, little SO2
• Highest ozone at Tyler• Tyler urban plume impact
Back Trajectories Ending at noon
Tyler
Longview
Karnack
66
54
79
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Satellite Fire Detections
• “…The cause of the mostly moderate air quality in the center on the country are the ongoing controlled agricultural fires that are burning in Eastern Missouri and Arkansas. These fires are creating small plumes of mostly light density smoke that are covering the region and slowly traveling Southwest (HMS image, top right). The poor air quality in Southern California is likely due to remnant, light density, smoke from wildfires in the area, as well as possible foreign smoke coming over from Asia, however, this smoke is moving out into the Pacific Ocean. Elevated AOD levels, likely due to the smoke, can be seen off the coast of Southern California, as well as near the agricultural burns in the center of the nation ” – Smog Blog
• http://alg.umbc.edu/usaq/archives/2015_09.html
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September 23, 2015
• Elevated PM2.5readings at Karnack
• Moderate northeasterly winds
• Back trajectories extend toward region with fires
• Possible that fires upwind contributed to background ozone
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September 23, 2015
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Tyler
C82
Location 8hr-O3
(ppb)
1hr-O3
(max-ppb/time)
Longview 60 66/noon
Tyler 73 79/noon
Karnack 53 56/2pm
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September 23, 2015
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HYSPLIT: 2500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 1000m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
HYSPLIT 500m
48hr BACKTRAJECTORY
Fire Source: http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/FIRE/fire.html
HYSPLIT 48-hr backtrajectories: http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
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Weather Conditions and High Ozone
• Overall, 2015 weather more conducive than 2014 weather, but 2015 was neither very conducive nor very inhibiting toward ozone formation
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