Review of General Fund RevenuesReview of General Fund...

August 15, 2014

Review of General Fund RevenuesReview of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy

for Fiscal Year 2014

The Interim Economic Outlook andThe Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015

through 2016

A presentation to the Senate Finance, House Appropriations, and House Finance Committees

Richard D. BrownSecretary of FinanceSecretary of Finance

Overview…

Fiscal Year 2014 Year-in-Review

• Economic Performance

• Actual General Fund Collections

• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections

• Financial Results Balance Sheet

Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2015 through 2016Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2015 through 2016

• May 2014 Economic Outlook

• August 2014 Interim Revenue Forecastg

• Revenue Stabilization Fund Balance

Next Steps

• July 2014 General Fund Collections

• Fall Forecasting Process

1

The U.S. Economy Performed As Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2014…In Fiscal Year 2014…

• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), real GDP advanced 2.4 percent in FY14.

• Wages and Salaries advanced 3.3 percent in FY14 in line with expectations.

• The U S economy gained 2 3 million jobs in FY14The U.S. economy gained 2.3 million jobs in FY14.• At the end of FY14, national employment slightly

exceeded the previous peak that occurred six years ago in FY08.

Summary of Key U.S. Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY14 FY14 Forecast Actual

Real GDP 2.1 2.4

Consumer Spending 2.0 2.4

Employment 1 6 1 7Employment 1.6 1.7

Personal Income 3.6 3.1

Wages & Salaries 3.2 3.3

2

However, Due to Federal Budget Cuts, Virginia’s Economy Stalled In The Last Half

f Fi l Y 2014of Fiscal Year 2014…

• In Virginia, wages and salaries grew 1.1 percent, significantly lower than the official forecasted rate of 2.6 percent.

• Virginia gained a meager 0.4 percent or 14,600 jobs in FY14. Gains in finance, health services, and leisure and hospitality were largely offset by the drag from professionalhospitality were largely offset by the drag from professional and business services and government.

Summary of Key Virginia Economic IndicatorsSummary of Key Virginia Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY14 Forecast

FY14 Actual

Employment 1.0 0.4

Professional/Business 1.0 -1.8

Government -0.1 0.0

Personal Income 2 9 1 6Personal Income 2.9 1.6

Wages & Salaries 2.6 1.1

3

The Composition of Employment Growth is Changing...Changing...

4

Fiscal Year 2014 Revenues And Transfers Finished $437.8 Million (2.5 Percent) Below F tForecast…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2014 Revenue Collections(millions of dollars)

% Growth Over FY13Major Source Forecast Actual Dollars Actual

Withholding $ 10,550.2 $ 10,484.2 $ (66.0) (0.6) % 2.9 % 2.3 %Nonwithholding 2,926.0 2,524.9 (401.1) (13.7) 4.2 (10.1)Refunds (1 807 1) (1 755 8) 51 3 (2 8) 5 1 2 1

VariancePercent Forecast

Refunds (1,807.1) (1,755.8) 51.3 (2.8) 5.1 2.1 Net Individual 11,669.1 11,253.3 (415.8) (3.6) 2.9 (0.8)

Sales 3,079.4 3,066.5 (12.9) (0.4) (4.4) (4.8)Corporate 769.9 757.5 (12.4) (1.6) (3.4) (4.9)Wills (Recordation) 377.5 310.8 (66.7) (17.7) 0.0 (17.7)Insurance 289.4 320.4 31.0 10.7 10.4 22.2All Other Revenue 664.1 702.9 38.8 5.8 (3.5) 2.1

Total Revenues $ 16,849.4 $ 16,411.4 $ (438.0) (2.6) % 1.0 % (1.6) %

ABC Profits 71 6 72 2 0 6 0 8 5 3 6 2ABC Profits 71.6 72.2 0.6 0.8 5.3 6.2Sales Tax (0.25%) 334.7 334.0 (0.7) (0.2) 51.2 50.9Transfers 131.2 131.5 0.3 0.2 (3.0) (2.7)

Total Transfers $ 537.5 $ 537.7 $ 0.2 0.0 % 26.6 % 26.6 %

Total General Fund $ 17,386.9 $ 16,949.1 $ (437.8) (2.5) % 1.6 % (0.9) %

5

The Drop-Off in May Pushed the Fiscal-Year-to-Date Growth Down to Negative T itTerritory…

14%

Growth in Total General Fund Revenue CollectionsFY14 Monthly and Year-to-Date

13.0%

3.0% 2.8%

1 3%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%

Forecast: 1.0%

0.6% 0.7% 0.7%-0.5%

-0.8% 0.0%1.3%

-1.6% -1.6%

-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%

-22%-20%-18%-16%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

Monthly

Growth: 13.0% -4.8% 2.6% -5.4% 1.1% 0.8% -5.9% -3.4% 7.8% 10.0% -20.7% -2.2%

• Total general fund revenue collections were short of the forecast by $438.0 million in FY14, a forecast variance of 2.6 percent.

• Total general fund revenue collections fell 1.6 percent, behind the official forecast of 1.0 percent growth.

– Adjusting for the accelerated sales tax (AST) program, total revenues fell 0.6 percent, behind the economic-base forecast of 2.1 percent growth.

6

Payroll Withholding Tax Collections Fell Short of The Annual Estimate By $66.0 Milli ( 0 6 P t) I Fi l Y 2014Million (-0.6 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2014…

19.6%18%

20%

Growth in Withholding TAX CollectionsFY14 Monthly and Year-to-Date

5 8%8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Forecast: 2.9%

5.8%

4.8%3.6%

3.4% 3.4%

2.5%3.0% 2.7% 3.3%

2.5% 2.3%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Monthly Growth: 19.6% -5.5% 2.9% 0.5% 2.6% 3.1% -1.9% 6.6% 0.8% 8.0% -5.4% 0.1%

-6%

-4%



• Collections of payroll withholding taxes, 64 percent of total general fund revenues, grew 2.3 percent, trailing the annual estimate of 2.9 percent.

Sl th t d l t d i th• Slower-than-expected employment and income growth dampened collections in this source.

7

Weak Growth in Withholding Collections Due to Slowdown in Public Sector and Declines in F d l C t t d P f i l dFederal Contractors and Professional and Business Services…

Withholding Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2012 - 2014

Millions of Dollars

# of FirmsIndustry (% of Total $ Amount in FY14) in FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14

Millions of Dollars Percent Changedust y (% o ota $ ou t ) 3 3

Public Sector (18%) 93 $1,831.5 $1,874.9 $1,888.6 2.7% 2.4% 0.7%Education and Health Services (7%) 244 $750.4 $757.4 $772.9 -1.2% 0.9% 2.0%Federal Contractors (4%) 192 $495.6 $482.8 $451.7 -1.7% -2.6% -6.4%Finance (3%) 134 $270 3 $294 7 $306 6 7 0% 9 0% 4 0%Finance (3%) 134 $270.3 $294.7 $306.6 7.0% 9.0% 4.0%Professional and Business Services (3%) 538 $260.5 $285.5 $288.1 8.1% 9.6% 0.9%Investment (2%) 148 $134.8 $159.6 $179.0 3.1% 18.4% 12.2%Manufacturing (2%) 174 $135.8 $141.0 $157.3 7.2% 3.8% 11.6%Transportation (1%) 41 $103 1 $108 9 $113 9 0 4% 5 7% 4 6%Transportation (1%) 41 $103.1 $108.9 $113.9 0.4% 5.7% 4.6%Energy (1%) 47 $96.2 $84.4 $86.2 -2.8% -12.3% 2.2%Other (4%) 720 $468.0 $468.8 $464.1 -1.8% 0.2% -1.0%

( %) $ $ $ % % %Total Large Payers (45%) 2,331 $4,546.1 $4,658.0 $4,708.6 1.6% 2.5% 1.1%Total Small Payers (55%) 242,267 $5,493.5 $5,593.3 $5,775.6 6.5% 1.8% 3.3%Total All 244,598 $10,039.7 $10,251.3 $10,484.2 4.2% 2.1% 2.3%

8

Individual Income Tax Nonwithholding Collections Were $401.1 (13.7 Percent) Below The Annual Estimate In Fiscal YearBelow The Annual Estimate In Fiscal Year 2014…

Growth in Estimated and Final Payments, FY92-14Percent Growth Over the Prior Year

60%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

10%

20%

40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

Estimated Payments

Final

• Collections of nonwithholding, 15 percent of total revenues and one of the most volatile revenue sources, fell short of expectations due to a drop off in final payments and flat

-40%92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

p p p yestimated payments.

– Final payments decreased 23.5 percent compared with the estimate no change.

T k t th t t l ithh ldi ll ti f ll 10 1• Taken together, total nonwithholding collections fell 10.1 percent in fiscal year 2014 compared with the annual estimate of 4.2 percent growth.

9

Individual Payments Reflect Realized Capital Gains and Non-wage Income…

Number of Total $ AmtP t f P t

Large Individual Payments

Payments of Payments (in millions)

FY00 832 $266.2

FY01 885 $270.9

FY02 639 $168.8

FY03 617 $177.5

FY04 864 $242.3

FY05 1,320 $394.8

FY06 1 749 $523 1FY06 1,749 $523.1

FY07 1,929 $638.5

FY08 1,858 $657.9

FY09 1,310 $483.3

FY10 843 $263.8FY10 843 $263.8

FY11 1,130 $422.3

FY12 1,173 $401.6FY13 1,648 $575.7FY14 1,119 $328.0

FY13 and FY14 payments are affected by federal tax policy changes; FY14 payments are the lowest since FY10.

10

Note, large payments are payments over $100,000.00

Individual Income Tax Refunds Were Below Expectations In Fiscal Year 2014…Below Expectations In Fiscal Year 2014…

Individual Refunds

• Individual refunds in FY14 were $51.3 million below the estimate of a 5.1 percent increase, a -2.8 percent variance.

• During the main filing season that began in January and ended in June, TAX issued 2.6 million refunds, approximately the same amount as last year. The average check size declined 3 percent ($549 versus $566).

Net Individual Income Taxes

• Net individual income taxes (i.e., collections of withholding, nonwithholding, and refunds) underperformed the forecast by $415.8 million, a variance of -3.6 percent.

• Collections fell 0.8 percent from FY14, behind the annual estimate of 2.9 percent growth.

11

Sales And Use Tax Collections Fell Short Of The Annual Estimate By $12.9 Million ( 0 4 P t) I Fi l Y 2014(-0.4 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2014…

4%

Growth in Sales Tax Collections FY14 Monthly and Year-to-Date

-3.7%-2.6% -2.9%

-3.8%4 5%

-2%

0%

2%

-5.5% -5.6%

-4.5% -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%

-4.5%

-4.8%

-8%

-6%

-4%

Forecast: -4.4%

-14%

-12%

-10%



Monthly

• Adjusting for AST, sales tax collections grew 0.8 percent in fiscal year 2014, trailing the economic-base forecast of a 1.6 percent increase.

Growth: -5.5% -5.6% -2.7% -1.7% 1.8% -4.3% -8.0% -12.7% -4.2% -5.0% -1.6% -6.4%

percent increase.

• Monthly growth rates were below the annual forecast in 6 out of the 12 months as Virginia consumers have shown restraint in connection with federal government cutbacks.

12

Sales Tax Collections Overall Were Weak, But Fiscal Year 2014 Gains Emerged in Housing, Restaurants, Trade, and Leisure and Hospitality…

Sales Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2012 - 2014

Millions of DollarsMillions of Dollars

# of Firms

Industry (% of Total $ Amount) in FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14

Housing (16%) 177 $423.4 $446.5 $466.2 5.5% 4.4%

Millions of Dollars Percent Change

Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters (14%) 6 $390.4 $404.8 $398.2 3.7% ‐1.6%

Department Stores (12%) 126 $358.9 $359.2 $357.8 0.1% ‐0.4%

Grocery Stores (11%) 23 $309.2 $322.5 $322.6 4.3% 0.0%

Retail Trade (10%) 112 $276.8 $284.2 $292.0 2.7% 2.7%Retail Trade (10%) 112 $276.8 $284.2 $292.0 2.7% 2.7%

Restaurants (5%) 90 $139.8 $145.6 $154.6 4.1% 6.2%

Wholesale Trade (2%) 78 $60.8 $68.2 $71.9 12.1% 5.5%

Leisure and Hospitality (2%) 63 $35.7 $41.9 $46.4 17.4% 10.7%

Gasoline Stations (2%) 18 $51 6 $49 8 $45 7 3 5% 8 4%Gasoline Stations (2%) 18 $51.6 $49.8 $45.7 ‐3.5% ‐8.4%

Other (5%) 369 $171.0 $169.4 $150.1 ‐0.9% ‐11.4%

Total Large Payers 1,062 $2,217.6 $2,292.1 $2,305.4 3.4% 0.6%

$ $ $Total 143,598 $3,123.4 $3,186.0 $3,211.5 2.0% 0.8%

13

Corporate Income Tax Receipts Fell Short Of The Annual Estimate By $12.4 Million( 1 6 P t) I Fi l Y 2014

Growth in Net Corporate Income Tax Receipts, FY82-14Percent Growth Over the Prior Year

(-1.6 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2014…

30%

40%

50%

10%

0%

10%

20%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

• Corporate income tax collections, 5 percent of total revenues and one of the most volatile sources, fell 4.9 percent in FY14, behind the annual estimate of a 3.4 percent decline.

14

The Performance of Other Revenue Sources Were Mixed Compared to Their R ti F t I Fi l Y 2014Respective Forecasts In Fiscal Year 2014…

Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (Recordation Tax)

• Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (primarily recordation tax collections) finished $66.7 million behind the annual forecast (-17.7 percent variance).

– This source fell 17.7 percent as housing transactions have been weakhave been weak.

Insurance Premiums Tax

• Insurance premiums tax collections exceeded the annual estimate by $31.0 million (10.7 percent variance).

– Growth in the commercial real estate market and improving home values led to a rebound in insurance premiums tax collections.

All Other Revenues

• All Other Revenues finished $38.8 million ahead of expectations (5.8 percent variance).p ( p )

– Much of this gain was due to Interest Income, which came in $24.1 million above forecast.

15

Commonwealth Transportation Fund (CTF) Revenues Finished Fiscal Year 2014 $16 7 Milli B l th Offi i l E ti t$16.7 Million Below the Official Estimate…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2014 Revenue CollectionsCommonwealth Transportation Fund

(millions of dollars)( )

Percent Change

FY2013 FY2014 FY2014 2013-2014 Forecast Variance

Revenue Sources Actual Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Amount Percent

Motor Fuels Tax 814.8 649.7 $597.8 -20.3% -26.6% $51.9 8.7%

Road Use Tax 5.1 8.6 7.7 68.6 51.0 0.9 11.7

Vehicle Sales Tax 589.4 788.6 826.1 33.8 40.2 -37.5 -4.5

Vehicle Licenses 245.6 249.3 250.7 1.5 2.1 -1.4 -0.6

State Sales Tax 521.2 822.6 837.8 57.8 60.7 -15.2 -1.8

Recordation Tax 46.3 37.3 45.5 (19.4) (1.7) -8.2 -18.0

Priority Transportation Fund 20.0 - - na na na na

Insurance Premiums Tax 130.1 130.8 130.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0

Int'l Registration Plan 61.8 59.6 62.3 (3.6) 0.8 -2.7 -4.3g ( )

Interest Earnings 9.3 7.2 13.1 (22.6) 40.9 -5.9 -45.0

Rental Tax 33.4 33.3 33.1 (0.3) (0.9) 0.2 0.6

Aviation Fuels Tax 1.8 2.0 2.0 11.1 11.1 0.0 0.0

Miscellaneous 14.8 17.3 16.1 16.9 8.8 1.2 7.5

• Total revenue growth was below target with a 0.6 percent forecast variance.

Miscellaneous 14.8 17.3 16.1 16.9 8.8 1.2 7.5

TOTAL $2,493.6 $2,806.3 $2,823.0 12.5% 13.2% ($16.7) -0.6%

16

- Relative to the forecast, gains in the motor fuels tax were offset by weaker than expected vehicle sales tax collections.

Given the Revenue Shortfall, All Available Dollars Are Either Reserved, Committed, or Assigned on the Commonwealth’s BalanceAssigned on the Commonwealth s Balance Sheet…

General Fund - Budgetary (Cash) Basis (Unaudited)Fiscal Year 2014

AssetsCash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments $ 1,354.1 Cash, Travel Advances and Amounts Due from Other Funds 1.3

(millions of dollars)

Total Assets $ 1,355.4

Liabilities and Fund EquityLiabilities:

Deposits Pending Distribution 6.1

Total Liabilities $ 6.1

Fund Equity:Reserved Fund Balance:

Revenue Stabilization Reserve Fund 687.5 Revenue Stabilization Reserve 2015 243.2 Lottery Proceeds Fund 4.8 Water Supply Assistance Grant Fund 8.0

Total Reserved Fund Balance 943.5

Commitments and Assignments:

Reapp. 2014 Unexpended Bal. for Cap Outlay 21.7 Central Capital Planning Fund 11.0 Communication Sales and Use Tax 38.9 Natural Disaster Sum Sufficient 33.3Natural Disaster Sum Sufficient 33.3 Amt. Required for Mandatory Reapp. 57.4 Federal Action Contigency Trust Fund 4.4 Select NGF Balances 239.1

Total Committed and Assigned Fund Balance 405.8

Total Fund Equity 1,349.3

$Total Liabilities and Fund Balance $ 1,355.4

17

The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of Finance In Mid-May To Conduct A R f t Of RReforecast Of Revenues…

• The August 2014 interim revenue forecast is based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the J i t Ad i B d f E i t (JABE) d thJoint Advisory Board of Economists (JABE) and the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) .

– IHS Economics’ May 2014 standard and pessimisticIHS Economics May 2014 standard and pessimistic forecasts for the U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were presented to the JABE.

– The majority of the Board considered the standard f t f Vi i i t hi h ith t bforecast for Virginia too high, with two members recommending a lower growth alternative and six supporting the standard forecast with downward revisions.

– Based on JABE members’ comments, the May pessimistic forecast for Virginia employment and wages & salaries was a bit too conservative and the recommendation was for a pessimistic scenario.

– The May JABE and standard alternative forecasts were presented to the Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 1, 2014.

18

In the JABE Pessimistic Forecast, Virginia Will Continue to Underperform the National EEconomy…

• Employment and income growth are not expected to approach modestly stronger rates until FY16, FY15 is f t t i bd dforecast to remain subdued.

Key Virginia Economic IndicatorsOfficial and JABE Pessimistic Forecast

A l P t ChAnnual Percent Change

11 12 13 14 15 16

Employment

Official (Budget) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.7

JABE Pessimistic 0.4 0.7 1.4

Personal Income

Official (Budget) 5.1 4.7 3.0 2.9 4.3 4.4


Wages & Salaries

Official (Budget) 3.4 2.7 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.2


Average Wage

Official (Budget) 2.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.5 2.5

19

( g )


The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates The Recommendations From Th GACRE M tiThe GACRE Meeting…

• Based on GACRE comments:

– Payroll withholding was reduced $65.0 million in FY15 and $105.0 million in FY16.

• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook leaning morestandard outlook and the pessimistic outlook, leaning more towards the pessimistic.

20

In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been R d d b $2 0 Billi f FY15 16Reduced by $2.0 Billion for FY15-16…

(Dollars in Millions)The Official to Interim General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2015

August 15, 2014

Major Sources Official Change

Withholding 60.1% $11,025.6 $10,770.3 ($255.3) 4.5 % 2.7

Nonwithholding 17.5 3,209.3 2,685.2 (524.1) 9.7 6.3

Refunds (10 3) (1 885 0) (1 819 0) 66 0 4 3 3 6

Fiscal Year 2015% Growth Over FY 14

Interim Official InterimAs a % of Total General Fund

Refunds (10.3) (1,885.0) (1,819.0) 66.0 4.3 3.6

Net Individual 67.3% $12,349.8 $11,636.5 ($713.3) 5.8 % 3.4 %

Sales 17.5% $3,211.4 $3,152.5 ($58.9) 4.3 % 2.8 %

Corporate 4.5 816.6 738.9 (77.7) 6.1 (2.5)

Wills (Recordation) 2.1 377.5 314.5 (63.0) 0.0 1.2

Insurance 1.6 290.9 344.4 53.5 0.5 7.5

All Other Revenue 3.7 675.6 675.6 0.0 1.7 (3.9)

Total Revenue 96.6% $17,721.9 $16,862.4 ($859.5) 5.2 % 2.7 %

21

In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been R d d b $2 0 Billi f FY15 16Reduced by $2.0 Billion for FY15-16…

(Dollars in Millions)The Official to Interim General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016

August 15, 2014

Major Sources Official Interim Change Official Interim Change

Withholding $11,504.6 $11,100.5 ($404.1) 4.3 % 3.1 % $22,530.1 $21,870.8 ($659.3)

Nonwithholding 3,401.6 2,747.3 (654.3) 6.0 2.3 6,610.9 5,432.5 (1,178.4)

Refunds (1,965.0) (1,884.5) 80.5 4.2 3.6 (3,850.0) (3,703.5) 146.5

Net Individual $12,941.2 $11,963.3 ($977.9) 4.8 2.8 $25,291.0 $23,599.8 ($1,691.2)

Fiscal Year 2016 2014-2016 Biennium% Growth Over FY15

Official Interim

Net Individual $12,941.2 $11,963.3 ($977.9) 4.8 2.8 $25,291.0 $23,599.8 ($1,691.2)

Sales $3,303.5 $3,265.5 ($38.0) 2.9 3.6 $6,515.0 $6,418.0 ($97.0)

Corporate 827.7 744.2 (83.5) 1.4 0.7 1,644.3 1,483.1 (161.2)

Wills (Recordation) 377.5 314.5 (63.0) 0.0 0.0 755.0 629.0 (126.0)

Insurance 303.1 330.2 27.1 4.2 (4.1) 594.1 674.6 80.6

All Other Revenue 695.6 695.6 0.0 3.0 3.0 1,371.2 1,371.2 0.0

Total Revenue $18,448.6 $17,313.3 ($1,135.3) 4.1 % 2.7 % $36,170.5 $34,175.7 ($1,994.8)

22

Effect of Revenue Shortfall and Interim Revenue Forecast for 2015-2016 Biennium on Budget...

General Fund$ in Millions$ in Millions

FY2015 FY2016 Total

Official Budget Revenue Estimates $17 721 9 $18 448 6 $36 170 5Official Budget Revenue Estimates $17,721.9 $18,448.6 $36,170.5

Interim Revenue Reforecast 8/15 16,862.4 17,313.3 34,175.7

Difference (859.5) (1,135.3) (1,994.8)

Revenue Shortfall FY2014 (437.8) 0.0 (437.8)

Total Shortfall (1,297.3) (1,135.3) (2,432.6)

Appropriated Reserves 481.8 364.3 846.1

Revenue Stabilization Fund Withdrawals 470.0 235.0 705.0

Total Corrective Actions 951.8 599.3 1,551.1

Remaining Shortfall ($345 5) ($536 0) ($881 5)Remaining Shortfall ($345.5) ($536.0) ($881.5)

23

Assumed Withdrawals from the Revenue Stabilization Fund to Address the Budget Sh tf ll Will C th Si f th F d tShortfall Will Cause the Size of the Fund to Decline Between the End of FY2014 and FY2016…

Revenue Stabilization Fund – June 30 BalanceFY1995-2013 Actual and FY2014-2016 Forecast

(millions of dollars)

• A mandatory deposit of $243.2 million in fiscal year 2015 is

24

A mandatory deposit of $243.2 million in fiscal year 2015 is required. The withdrawals in fiscal years 2015 and 2016 are assumed to be $470.0 and $235.0 million, respectively.

July 2014 General Fund Revenue Collections Increased 14.1 percent Due to pTiming Issues...

Summary of July FY15 Revenue CollectionsPercent Growth over Prior Year

As a %of Total YTD Annual

Major Source Revenues Actual Estimate Variance

Withholding 62.2 % 8.9 % 5.2 % 3.7 %Nonwithholding 18 1 85 4 27 1 58 3

Percent Growth over Prior Year

Nonwithholding 18.1 85.4 27.1 58.3Refunds (10.6) (15.7) 7.4 (23.1) Net Individual 69.7 14.5 9.7 4.8

Sales 18.1 6.4 4.7 1.7Corporate 4.6 740.2 7.8 732.4Wills (Recordation) 2.1 (12.2) 21.5 (33.7)Insurance 1.6 n/a (9.2) n/aAll Other Revenue 3.8 12.2 (3.9) 16.1

Total 100.0 % 14.1 % 8.0 % 6.1 %

• Withholding collections had one additional deposit day this

Sales (x HB2313 & AST) (2.3) % 5.5 % (7.8) %

Total (x HB2313 & AST) 11.9 % 8.2 % 3.7 %

• Withholding collections had one additional deposit day this year.

• Timing delays postponed the collection of some nonwithholdingpayments and pushed them into July receipts.

• A year-ago, a large corporate income tax refund occurred.

25

The August Revenue Reforecast Will Be Addressed By Budget Reductions And F th R i d B f D bFurther Reviewed Before December…

• Budget actions will be identified and implemented to address the reduction in the fiscal year’s 2015 and 2016 forecast.

– Prepare and review of agency-developed reduction plans.

– Implement agency budget reductions to address the shortfall in the current fiscal yearshortfall in the current fiscal year.

– Make recommendations in the 2015 amended budget bill for additional items that require General Assembly approval.

• Significant revenue elements used in the fall forecasting process will be available over the next few months and will be incorporated in the fall forecasting process.

– September – individual, corporate, and insurance estimated payments due.

– October – Retailer corporate estimated payments due.p p y• Review economic projections (JABE).

– November – corporate refunds from extension returns normally peak.

• Review of revenue forecast for fiscal years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 (GACRE).

26

Appendix

Fiscal Year 2014 General Fund Collections: Actual and Official Forecast

Official and Interim General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015 and 2016

Official and August Update - Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Years 2015 and 2016

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues, Fiscal Years 1961 to 2016

June 2014 Revenue Report

July 2014 Revenue Report

Note:Note:

The General Fund Preliminary Annual Report, August 15, 2014 is available at the Department of Accounts web site (www.doa.virginia.gov).

This presentation is available at the Secretary of Finance web site (www.finance.virginia.gov).

27

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 796.7 (7.3) % $ 769.9 $ 757.5 $ (12.4) (1.6) % (3.4) % (4.9) %

Individual Income Tax:

Gross 13,059.0 5.3 13,476.2 13,009.2 (467.0) (3.5) 3.2 (0.4)

Withholding 10,251.3 2.1 10,550.2 10,484.2 (66.0) (0.6) 2.9 2.3

Nonwithholding 2,807.7 19.1 2,926.0 2,524.9 (401.1) (13.7) 4.2 (10.1)

Refunds (1,719.1) (3.7) (1,807.1) (1,755.8) 51.3 (2.8) 5.1 2.1

Net 11,340.0 6.9 11,669.1 11,253.3 (415.8) (3.6) 2.9 (0.8)

Insurance Company Premiums 262.2 3.7 289.4 320.4 31.0 10.7 10.4 22.2

State Sales & Use Tax 3,219.8 3.1 3,079.4 3,066.5 (12.9) (0.4) (4.4) (4.8)

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 377.5 17.2 377.5 310.8 (66.7) (17.7) 0.0 (17.7)

Total Major Tax Sources $ 15,996.2 5.5 % $ 16,185.3 $ 15,708.5 $ (476.8) (2.9) % 1.2 % (1.8) %

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES

Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 152.9 6.6 % $ 154.5 $ 157.4 $ 2.9 1.9 % 1.1 % 3.0 %

Bank Franchise Tax 20.4 8.3 20.0 22.5 2.5 12.7 (2.2) 10.3

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 42.3 (1.6) 42.3 41.8 (0.5) (1.1) (0.0) (1.2)

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 47.1 11.3 47.9 50.2 2.3 4.8 1.7 6.6

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (10.8) (24.6) (9.4) (7.1) 2.3 (24.2) 13.0 34.0

Estate & Gifts (0.3) (189.9) 0.0 0.2 0.2 n/a (100.0) (173.1)

Institutional Revenues 5.7 (2.5) 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.8 (1.7) (0.9)

Interest & Rents 67.8 (12.5) 50.3 74.4 24.1 47.9 (25.9) 9.7

Licenses & Permits 4.2 (1.6) 4.3 4.0 (0.3) (6.3) 3.0 (3.4)

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 224.2 0.4 218.4 222.3 3.9 1.8 (2.6) (0.8)

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 38.7 17.9 32.5 33.3 0.8 2.5 (15.9) (13.8)

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 96.2 1.9 97.7 98.2 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 688.4 1.6 % $ 664.1 $ 702.9 $ 38.8 5.8 % (3.5) % 2.1 %

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 16,684.6 5.3 % $ 16,849.4 $ 16,411.4 $ (438.0) (2.6) % 1.0 % (1.6) %

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 68.0 6.6 % $ 71.6 $ 72.2 $ 0.6 0.8 % 5.3 % 6.2 %

Sales Tax (0.25%) 221.4 3.4 334.7 334.0 (0.7) (0.2) 51.2 50.9

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 135.2 (18.5) 131.2 131.5 0.3 0.2 (3.0) (2.7)

Total Transfers $ 424.6 (15.3) % $ 537.5 $ 537.7 $ 0.2 0.0 % 26.6 % 26.6 %

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 17,109.2 4.7 % $ 17,386.9 $ 16,949.1 $ (437.8) (2.5) % 1.6 % (0.9) %

The Official forecast is based on the November 2013 IHS Global Insight US Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia economic outlook developed by the Department of Taxation. It includes actions of the 2014 General Assembly - Chapter 1.

% Growth Over FY 13OfficialActual % Growth Forecast Actual Official Actual

Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2014

Fiscal Year 2014 General Fund Collections: Actual and Official Forecast(Dollars in Millions)

PercentForecast VarianceDollars

(Dollars in Millions) August 15, 2014

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 816.6 $ 738.9 $ (77.7) 6.1 % (2.5) %


Gross 14,234.8 13,455.5 (779.3) 5.6 3.4

Withholding 11,025.6 10,770.3 (255.3) 4.5 2.7

Nonwithholding 3,209.3 2,685.2 (524.1) 9.7 6.3

Refunds (1,885.0) (1,819.0) 66.0 4.3 3.6

Net 12,349.8 11,636.5 (713.3) 5.8 3.4

Insurance Company Premiums 290.9 344.4 53.5 0.5 7.5

State Sales & Use Tax 3,211.4 3,152.5 (58.9) 4.3 2.8

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 377.5 314.5 (63.0) 0.0 1.2

Total Major Tax Sources $ 17,046.3 $ 16,186.8 $ (859.5) 5.3 % 3.0 %


Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 156.5 $ 156.5 $ 0.0 1.3 % (0.6) %

Bank Franchise Tax 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 (11.3)

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 42.3 42.3 0.0 0.0 1.1

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 47.9 47.9 0.0 0.0 (4.6)

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (9.4) (9.4) 0.0 0.0 31.9

Estate & Gifts 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a

Institutional Revenues 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 (0.8)

Interest & Rents 60.4 60.4 0.0 20.1 % (18.8)

Licenses & Permits 4.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 % 6.7

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 218.9 218.9 0.0 0.2 % (1.5)

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 31.4 31.4 0.0 (3.4) % (5.8)

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 97.7 97.7 0.0 0.0 % (0.5)

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 675.6 $ 675.6 $ 0.0 1.7 % (3.9) %

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 17,721.9 $ 16,862.4 $ (859.5) 5.2 % 2.7 %

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 74.8 $ 74.8 $ 0.0 4.5 % 3.6 %

Sales Tax (0.25%) 348.9 348.9 0.0 4.2 4.5

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 192.5 192.5 0.0 46.7 46.4

Total Transfers $ 616.2 $ 616.2 $ 0.0 14.6 % 14.6 %

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 18,338.1 $ 17,478.6 $ (859.5) 5.5 % 3.1 %

OfficialForecast Forecast Change Official Interim

% Growth Over FY 14

The Official and Interim General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2015

Fiscal Year 2015Interim

The Interim forecast is based on the May 2014 Global Insight Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast and includes the Joint Advisory Board of Economists and Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates recommendations.The Official forecast is based on the November 2013 Global Insight US Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia economic outlook developed by the Department of Taxation. It includes actions of the 2014 General Assembly - Chapter 2 of the Special Session.

(Dollars in Millions)

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 827.7 $ 744.2 $ (83.5) 1.4 % 0.7 % $ 1,644.3 $ 1,483.1 $ (161.2)


Gross 14,906.2 13,847.8 (1,058.4) 4.7 2.9 29,141.0 27,303.3 (1,837.7)

Withholding 11,504.6 11,100.5 (404.1) 4.3 3.1 22,530.1 21,870.8 (659.3)

Nonwithholding 3,401.6 2,747.3 (654.3) 6.0 2.3 6,610.9 5,432.5 (1,178.4)

Refunds (1,965.0) (1,884.5) 80.5 4.2 3.6 (3,850.0) (3,703.5) 146.5

Net 12,941.2 11,963.3 (977.9) 4.8 2.8 25,291.0 23,599.8 (1,691.2)

Insurance Company Premiums 303.1 330.2 27.1 4.2 (4.1) 594.1 674.6 80.6

State Sales & Use Tax 3,303.5 3,265.5 (38.0) 2.9 3.6 6,515.0 6,418.0 (97.0)

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 377.5 314.5 (63.0) 0.0 0.0 755.0 629.0 (126.0)

Total Major Tax Sources $ 17,753.0 $ 16,617.7 $ (1,135.3) 4.1 % 2.7 % $ 34,799.3 $ 32,804.5 $ (1,994.8)


Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 159.2 $ 159.2 $ 0.0 1.7 % 1.7 % $ 315.7 $ 315.7 $ 0.0

Bank Franchise Tax 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 42.3 42.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.6 84.6 0.0

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 47.9 47.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8 95.8 0.0

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (9.4) (9.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (18.8) (18.8) 0.0

Estate & Gifts 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a

Institutional Revenues 5.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 11.2 0.0

Interest & Rents 65.4 65.4 0.0 8.3 8.3 125.8 125.8 0.0

Licenses & Permits 4.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 0.0

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 220.3 220.3 0.0 0.6 0.6 439.2 439.2 0.0

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 42.3 42.3 0.0 34.7 34.7 73.7 73.7 0.0

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 97.7 97.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 195.4 195.4 0.0

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 695.6 $ 695.6 $ 0.0 3.0 % 3.0 % $ 1,371.2 $ 1,371.2 $ 0.0

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 18,448.6 $ 17,313.3 $ (1,135.3) 4.1 % 2.7 % $ 36,170.5 $ 34,175.7 $ (1,994.8)

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 78.2 $ 78.2 $ 0.0 4.5 % 4.5 % $ 153.0 $ 153.0 $ 0.0

Sales Tax (0.375%) 361.1 361.1 0.0 3.5 3.5 710.0 710.0 0.0

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 84.8 84.8 0.0 (55.9) (55.9) 277.3 277.3 0.0

Total Transfers $ 524.1 $ 524.1 $ 0.0 (14.9) % (14.9) % $ 1,140.3 $ 1,140.3 $ 0.0

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 18,972.7 $ 17,837.4 $ (1,135.3) 3.5 % 2.1 % $ 37,310.8 $ 35,316.0 $ (1,994.8)

InterimOfficial Forecast ForecastForecast Forecast Change

Official InterimFiscal Year 2016

The Official to Interim General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016August 15, 2014

% Growth Over FY 15ChangeInterim

2014-2016 BienniumOfficial

The Interim forecast is based on the May 2014 Global Insight Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast and includes the Joint Advisory Board of Economists and Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates recommendations.The Official forecast is based on the November 2013 Global Insight US Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia economic outlook developed by the Department of Taxation. It includes actions of the 2014 General Assembly - Chapter 2 of the Special Session.

The Official and August Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2015(Dollars in Millions)

August 1, 2014

Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015Official August % Growth over FY 14

Actual % Growth Forecast Forecast Change Official August

Highway Maintenance & Operating Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 527.3 (25.6) % $ 573.0 $ 573.0 $ 0.0 8.7 % 8.7 %Road Tax 0.5 (119.2) (0.1) 0.5 0.6 (120.0) *Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 581.2 50.0 653.5 620.7 (32.8) 12.4 6.8Motor Vehicle License Fees 227.6 1.7 232.8 222.3 (10.5) 2.3 (2.3)Retail Sales and Use Tax 191.3 n/a 270.5 267.5 (3.0) 41.4 39.8International Registration Plan 59.6 (3.6) 63.5 62.3 (1.2) 6.5 4.5Recordation Tax (1 cent) 12.5 (18.8) 15.0 12.7 (2.3) 20.0 1.6Miscellaneous 17.3 16.9 16.1 16.1 0.0 (6.9) (6.9)Total State Taxes and Fees $ 1,617.3 14.7 % $ 1,824.3 $ 1,775.1 $ (49.2) 12.8 % 9.8 %

Transportation Trust Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 122.4 (2.6) % $ 136.0 $ 136.0 $ 0.0 11.1 % 11.1 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 130.8 0.5 140.1 150.4 10.3 7.1 15.0Road Tax 8.0 3.9 7.8 7.7 (0.1) (2.5) (3.8)Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 207.4 2.8 222.1 214.4 (7.7) 7.1 3.4Motor Vehicle License Fees 21.7 0.0 22.4 21.9 (0.5) 3.2 0.9Retail Sales and Use Tax 631.3 21.1 666.1 660.7 (5.4) 5.5 4.7Recordation Tax (2 cents) 24.9 (19.4) 30.5 25.2 (5.3) 22.5 1.2Interest Earnings 7.2 (22.6) 10.5 10.0 (0.5) 45.8 38.9Rental Tax 33.3 (0.3) 34.0 33.1 (0.9) 2.1 (0.6)Aviation Fuels Tax 2.0 11.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total State Taxes and Fees $ 1,189.0 9.7 % $ 1,271.5 $ 1,261.4 $ (10.1) 6.9 % 6.1 %

Total HMOF And TTF

Motor Fuels Tax $ 649.7 (22.2) % $ 709.0 $ 709.0 $ 0.0 9.1 % 9.1 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 130.8 0.5 140.1 150.4 10.3 7.1 15.0Road Tax 8.5 66.7 7.7 8.2 0.5 (9.4) (3.5)Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 788.6 33.8 875.6 835.1 (40.5) 11.0 5.9Motor Vehicle License Fees 249.3 1.5 255.2 244.2 (11.0) 2.4 (2.0)International Registration Plan 59.6 (3.6) 63.5 62.3 (1.2) 6.5 4.5Retail Sales and Use Tax 822.6 57.8 936.6 928.2 (8.4) 13.9 12.8Recordation Tax (3 cents) 37.4 (19.2) 45.5 37.9 (7.6) 21.7 1.3Interest Earnings 7.2 (22.6) 10.5 10.0 (0.5) 45.8 38.9Rental Tax 33.3 (0.3) 34.0 33.1 (0.9) 2.1 (0.6)Aviation Fuels Tax 2.0 11.1 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Miscellaneous 17.3 16.9 16.1 16.1 0.0 (6.9) (6.9)

Total State Taxes and Fees $ 2,806.3 12.5 % $ 3,095.8 $ 3,036.5 $ (59.3) 10.3 % 8.2 %

Transfers per the Appropriations ActRetail Sales Tax - AST (TTF) 21.7 3.8 18.8 23.3 4.5 (13.4) 7.4Total Transfers $ 21.7 3.8 $ 18.8 $ 23.3 $ 4.5 (13.4) 7.4 %

Total Transportation Fund $ 2,828.0 12.5 $ 3,114.6 $ 3,059.8 $ (54.8) 10.1 % 8.2 %

The Official forecast is based on the November 2013 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation.The August forecast is based on the JABE Pessimistic outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation for retail sales and recordation taxes. Other sources are updates based on FY14 actuals.This forecast assumes that federal legislation implementing the Marketplace Fairness Act (MFA) is not passed through the forecast horizon.

Therefore, this forecast does not includes revenues attributable to the MFA. In addition, according to provisions of HB2313 (2013), if federallegislation implementing the MFA is not passed, the motor fuels sales tax rate on gasoline increases by 1.6% on Janaury 1, 2015 and the incremental sales tax commitment remains at the fiscal year 2015 rate of 0.1%.

The Official and August Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016(Dollars in Millions)

August 1, 2014

Fiscal Year 2016Official August % Growth over FY 15

Forecast Forecast Change Official August

Highway Maintenance & Operating Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 672.4 $ 672.4 $ 0.0 17.3 % 17.3 %Road Tax (0.3) 0.5 0.8 200.0 *Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 675.7 660.4 (15.3) 3.4 6.4Motor Vehicle License Fees 234.6 225.5 (9.1) 0.8 1.4Retail Sales and Use Tax 279.9 276.3 (3.6) 3.5 3.3International Registration Plan 62.7 63.5 0.8 (1.3) 1.9Recordation Tax (1 cent) 15.0 12.7 (2.3) 0.0 0.0Miscellaneous 16.1 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Total State Taxes and Fees (HMOF) $ 1,956.1 $ 1,927.4 $ (28.7) 7.2 % 8.6 %

Transportation Trust Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 159.6 $ 159.6 $ 0.0 17.4 % 17.4 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 143.7 157.4 13.7 2.6 4.7Road Tax 8.1 7.8 (0.3) 3.8 1.3Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 225.9 222.1 (3.8) 1.7 3.6Motor Vehicle License Fees 22.5 22.4 (0.1) 0.4 2.3Retail Sales and Use Tax 685.5 675.5 (10.0) 2.9 2.2Recordation Tax (2 cents) 30.5 25.2 (5.3) 0.0 0.0Interest Earnings 10.9 10.0 (0.9) 3.8 0.0Rental Tax 35.1 34.0 (1.1) 3.2 2.7Aviation Fuels Tax 2.1 2.0 (0.1) 5.0 0.0Total State Taxes and Fees (TTF) $ 1,323.9 $ 1,316.0 $ (7.9) 4.1 % 4.3 %

Total HMOF And TTF

Motor Fuels Tax $ 832.0 $ 832.0 $ 0.0 17.3 % 17.3 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 143.7 157.4 13.7 2.6 4.7Road Tax 7.8 8.3 0.5 1.3 1.2Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 901.6 882.5 (19.1) 3.0 5.7Motor Vehicle License Fees 257.1 247.9 (9.2) 0.7 1.5International Registration Plan 62.7 63.5 0.8 (1.3) 1.9Retail Sales and Use Tax 965.4 951.8 (13.6) 3.1 2.5Recordation Tax (3 cents) 45.5 37.9 (7.6) 0.0 0.0Interest Earnings 10.9 10.0 (0.9) 3.8 0.0Rental Tax 35.1 34.0 (1.1) 3.2 2.7Aviation Fuels Tax 2.1 2.0 (0.1) 5.0 0.0Miscellaneous 16.1 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total State Taxes and Fees $ 3,280.0 $ 3,243.4 $ (36.6) 5.9 % 6.8 %

Transfers per the Appropriations ActRetail Sales Tax - AST (TTF) 16.2 24.1 7.9 (13.8) 3.4Total Transfers $ 16.2 $ 24.1 $ 7.9 (13.8) % 3.4 %

Total Transportation Fund $ 3,296.2 $ 3,267.5 $ (28.7) 5.8 % 6.8 %

The Official forecast is based on the November 2013 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation.The August forecast is based on the JABE Pessimistic outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation for retail sales and recordation taxes. Other sources are updates based on FY14 actuals.This forecast assumes that federal legislation implementing the Marketplace Fairness Act (MFA) is not passed through the forecast horizon.

Therefore, this forecast does not includes revenues attributable to the MFA. In addition, according to provisions of HB2313 (2013), if federallegislation implementing the MFA is not passed, the motor fuels sales tax rate on gasoline increases by 1.6% on Janaury 1, 2015 and the incremental sales tax commitment remains at the fiscal year 2015 rate of 0.1%.

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues

Fiscal Year 1961 - Fiscal Year 2016

(Nominal - Actual Dollars)

FY Total Revenues Growth FY Total Revenues Growth

61 230,998,887 - 89 5,478,912,000 8.4%

62 242,144,567 4.8% 90 5,494,884,000 0.3%

63 286,304,265 18.2% 91 5,471,879,000 -0.4%

64 298,033,919 4.1% 92 5,623,213,000 2.8%

65 323,213,412 8.4% 93 6,133,637,000 9.1%

66 365,129,776 13.0% 94 6,503,368,000 6.0%

67 414,755,644 13.6% 95 6,881,145,000 5.8%

68 533,597,744 28.7% 96 7,356,110,000 6.9%

69 706,254,374 32.4% 97 7,949,327,000 8.1%

70 743,721,322 5.3% 98 8,773,520,000 10.4%

71 807,954,651 8.6% 99 9,702,747,000 10.6%

72 922,653,686 14.2% 00 10,788,482,000 11.2%

73 1,054,469,443 14.3% 01 11,105,275,000 2.9%

74 1,168,562,871 10.8% 02 10,678,954,000 -3.8%

75 1,303,178,893 11.5% 03 10,867,149,000 1.8%

76 1,428,421,157 9.6% 04 11,917,867,000 9.7%

77 1,636,301,819 14.6% 05 13,687,252,000 14.8%

78 1,923,085,084 17.5% 06 14,834,298,000 8.4%

79 2,115,211,522 10.0% 07 15,565,827,000 4.9%

80 2,344,928,934 10.9% 08 15,766,951,000 1.3%

81 2,579,663,941 10.0% 09 14,315,060,000 -9.2%

82 2,796,458,741 8.4% 10 14,219,477,000 -0.7%

83 2,975,687,935 6.4% 11 15,040,200,000 5.8%

84 3,397,710,261 14.2% 12 15,846,665,000 5.4%

85 3,790,816,000 11.6% 13 16,684,600,000 5.3%

86 4,131,778,000 9.0% 14 16,411,415,000 -1.6%

87 4,590,434,000 11.1% 15* 16,862,400,000 2.7%

88 5,054,382,000 10.1% 16* 17,313,300,000 2.7%

* August 15, 2014 Interim Forecast (Excludes Transfers)

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$439

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l pro

fit t

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the

fin

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it is

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plet

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d th

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ansf

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mad

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port

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re a

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est

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unau

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g).

(c)

The

cur

rent

yea

r fig

ures

on

this

cha

rt,

incl

udin

g gr

owth

per

cent

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, ar

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indi

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the

pro

babl

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up

and

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Fu

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(P

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909,

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21.4

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64,5

8623

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29,2

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0

200

400

600

800

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1400

1600

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JUL

A

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P O

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-10-

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