Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1...
Transcript of Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1...
![Page 1: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1
Gary King2
Institute for Quantitative Social ScienceHarvard University
(Talk at ESRC Research Methods Festival, 8 July 2014)
1Based on joint work with Jennifer Pan and Margaret Roberts2GaryKing.org
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Papers
An Observational Study:
How Censorship in China Allows Government Criticism butSilences Collective Expression (American Political Science Review, May 2013)
Experimental and Participatory Studies:
Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship (Under review)
Copies at GaryKing.org
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Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
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![Page 4: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 5: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),
by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 6: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,
located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 7: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 8: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 9: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information
(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 10: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Chinese Censorship
The largest selective suppression of human expression in history:
implemented manually (within a few hours of posting),by ≈ 200, 000 workers,located in government and inside social media firms
A huge censorship organization:
(obviously) designed to suppress information(paradoxically) very revealing about the goals, intentions, and actionsof the Chinese leadership
3/29
![Page 11: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites
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Chinese Social Media: Fractured over 1,400+ sites
hi.baidu 12%
bbs.voc.com.cn 5%
bbs.m4.cn 4%tianya 3%bbs.beijingww.com 2%
Share of Posts in Our Analysis by Internet Content Provider (ICP)
(Plus 59% from Sina Blog)5/29
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The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
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![Page 14: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 15: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 16: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 17: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?
1 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 18: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state
2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 19: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 20: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action
Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 21: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
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![Page 22: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!
Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
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The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 24: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officials
censor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 25: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 26: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 27: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replaced
Policies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 28: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)
Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 29: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the Internet
Dissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 30: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandals
Disagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 31: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right
6/29
![Page 32: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
The Goals of Censorship make Social Media Actionable
Everyone knows the Goal:Stop criticism, protest, & collective action about the state,its leaders, and their policies Wrong
What Could be the Goal?1 Stop criticism of the state Wrong2 Stop collective action Right
Implications: Social Media is Actionable!Chinese leaders:
measure criticism: to judge local officialscensor: to stop events with collective action potential
Thus, we can use criticism & censorship to predict:
Officials in trouble, likely to be replacedPolicies that generate dissent (& interest of leaders)Government action outside the InternetDissidents to be arrested; peace treaties to sign; emerging scandalsDisagreements between central and local leaders
A big prize, but payable only if we have the goals right6/29
![Page 33: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 34: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 35: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 36: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 37: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 38: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Our Observational Research Design: 5 Steps
1 Monitor 85 content areas over 6 months
2 Download each social media post, the instant it appears
3 Revisit each later to check if it was censored(carefully, from computers all over the world)
4 Repeat 11,382,221 times
5 Analyze with new methods of computer-assisted text analysis
7/29
![Page 39: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Censorship is not Ambiguous: Example Error Page
8/29
![Page 40: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Censorship is not Ambiguous: BBS Error Page
9/29
![Page 41: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are Faster
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
![Page 42: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
![Page 43: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
The Censors are Fast; Our Automated Methods are FasterExample: Shanghai Subway Crash
Days Until Censorship, Shanghai Subway Analysis
Days After Post Was Written
Num
ber C
enso
red
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
050
100
150
200
250
10/29
![Page 44: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 45: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 46: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 47: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 48: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
100
Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 49: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
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Cou
nt
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 50: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
6080
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nt
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●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 51: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
2040
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 52: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Post Volume & Censorship are “Bursty”0
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Collective Support for Environmental Lottery
Found 87 volume burstsin our 85 topic areas
Identified real worldevent associated witheach burst
Our hypothesis: The government censors all posts in volume burstsassociated with events with collective action potential (regardless of howcritical or supportive of the state)
11/29
![Page 53: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 54: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 55: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 56: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 57: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 58: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 59: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Observational Test 1: Post Volume
Begin with our 87 volume bursts in 85 topics areas
For each burst, calculate change in % censorship inside to outsideeach volume burst within topic areas – censorship magnitude
If goal of censorship is to stop collective action, we expect:
1 On average, % censoredshould increase duringvolume bursts
2 Some bursts (associatedwith politically relevantevents) should havemuch higher censorship -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
01
23
45
Censorship Magnitude
Density
12/29
![Page 60: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 61: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 62: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 63: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internet
individuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 64: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;
topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 65: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.
(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 66: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 67: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 68: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 69: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 70: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 71: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 72: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 73: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 74: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 75: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Classification of Events Generating the Bursts
Event classification (each category can be +, −, or neutral commentsabout the state)
1 Collective Action Potential
protest or organized crowd formation outside the Internetindividuals who have organized or incited collective action on theground in the past;topics related to nationalism or nationalist sentiment that have incitedprotest or collective action in the past.(Inter-coder reliability: 98.9%)
2 Criticism of censors
3 Pornography
4 (Other) News
5 Government Policies
13/29
![Page 76: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
What Types of Events Are Censored?
Censorship Magnitude
Density
02
46
810
12
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography
PolicyNews
14/29
![Page 77: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
What Types of Events Are Censored?
Censorship Magnitude
Popular Book Published in Audio FormatDisney Announced Theme ParkEPA Issues New Rules on LeadChinese Solar Company Announces EarningsChina Puts Nuclear Program on HoldGov't Increases Power PricesJon Hunstman Steps Down as Ambassador to ChinaNews About Iran Nuclear ProgramIndoor Smoking Ban Takes EffectPopular Video Game ReleasedEducation Reform for Migrant ChildrenFood Prices RiseU.S. Military Intervention in Libya
Censorship Magnitude
New Laws on Fifty Cent PartyRush to Buy Salt After Earthquake
Students Throw Shoes at Fang BinXingFuzhou Bombing
Localized Advocacy for Environment LotteryGoogle is Hacked
Collective Anger At Lead Poisoning in JiangsuAi Weiwei Arrested
Pornography Mentioning Popular BookZengcheng Protests
Baidu Copyright LawsuitPornography Disguised as News
Protests in Inner Mongolia
PoliciesNews
Collective ActionCriticism of CensorsPornography
-0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7
14/29
![Page 78: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Censoring Collective Action: Riots in Zencheng
010
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Riots in Zengcheng
15/29
![Page 79: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Censoring Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’s Arrest
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Ai Weiwei arrested
16/29
![Page 80: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Low Censorship on Policy: One Child
010
2030
40
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Speculation of
Policy Reversal at NPC
17/29
![Page 81: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Low Censorship on News: Power Prices
010
2030
4050
6070
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
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Count PublishedCount Censored
Power shortages Gov't raises power prices
to curb demand
18/29
![Page 82: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 83: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 84: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 85: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 86: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 87: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 88: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation set
ReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 89: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each category
Quantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 90: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 91: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
Content of Posts
We adapted “ReadMe” (Hopkins-King) methodology to the content ofcensored posts in Chinese
Standardize encoding of Chinese text
Eliminate punctuation and stop words
Experiment with segmenting characters into words
Calculate the quantity of interest (% censored by category)
Code a validation setReadMe estimates: % of posts in each categoryQuantity of interest: % of posts censored in a category
P(Censored |Category) =P(Category |Censored)P(Censored)
P(Category)
19/29
![Page 92: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in Chinese
20/29
![Page 93: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
20/29
![Page 94: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented
Probability
Facts Supporting Employers
Facts Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant
20/29
![Page 95: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
“ReadMe” Algorithm Validated in ChineseExample: Labor Strikes, 2010 (Training set: 100; Test set: 900)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ReadMe Results for Chinese Sampled, Not Segmented
Probability
Facts Supporting Employers
Facts Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Workers
Opinions Supporting Employers or Irrelevant
ReadMeTrue
20/29
![Page 96: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action Posts
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
![Page 97: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
![Page 98: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
Uncensored: Non-Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
One Child Policy Corruption Policy Food Prices Rise
21/29
![Page 99: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
Censored: Collective Action Posts
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
![Page 100: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
![Page 101: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
Censored: Collective Action PostsRegardless of whether Supportive or Critical
Per
cent
Cen
sore
d
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Criticize Support Criticize Support Criticize Support
Ai Weiwei Inner MongoliaFuzhou Bombing
22/29
![Page 102: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
![Page 103: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
![Page 104: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
![Page 105: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)
Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)
Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)
Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to type
Checked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)
Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentives
Procedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in China
Bought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselves
To learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Additional Research Designs
1 Randomized Experiment (for causal inferences)
Selected 100 top social media sites (∼87% of blogs, >500M Users,geographically diverse)Created 2 accounts on each (from inside China all over the country)Wrote 1,200 unique social media posts (CA/not CA, Pro/Anti)Submitted posts randomly assigned to typeChecked on censorship (from computers in many countries)
2 Participatory Study (for descriptive inferences)
Current method of learning how they censor: ask (carefully!)Our goal: change our sources’ incentivesProcedure: create our own social media website in ChinaBought URL; contracted with firms for servers & software; posted andcensored ourselvesTo learn: we tried every software option, read the documentation, andcalled customer support(!)
23/29
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Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
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Mechanisms of Censorship
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Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
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Mechanisms of Censorship
24/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
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ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
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51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
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ce (
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nti)
PanxuProtest
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
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TibetanSelf−
Immolations
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Ai WeiweiAlbum
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
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PanxuProtest
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TibetanSelf−
Immolations
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Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
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PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
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Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
PanxuProtest
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
●
GenderImbalance
25/29
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Posts For v. Against Government: Zero Causal Effect
● ●
−0.
50.
00.
51.
0
Cen
sors
hip
Diff
eren
ce (
Pro
− A
nti)
●
TibetanSelf−
Immolations
●
PanxuProtest
●
Ai WeiweiAlbum
●
Protestsin
Xinjiang
●
CorruptionPolicy
●
EliminateGoldenWeek
●
RentalTax
●
YellowLightFines
●
StockMarketCrash
●
Investigationof Sichuan
ViceGovernor
●
GenderImbalance
●
Li TianyiScandal
25/29
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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Collective Action Events: Large Causal Effect
● ●0.0
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nt −
Non
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Immolations
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Ai WeiweiAlbum
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Protestsin
Xinjiang
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Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
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Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 143: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/143.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由
“Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 144: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/144.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”
目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 145: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/145.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”
目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 146: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/146.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田
“Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 147: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/147.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field”
(nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 148: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/148.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1:
Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 149: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/149.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 150: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/150.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 151: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/151.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 152: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/152.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐
“Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 153: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/153.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 154: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/154.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 155: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/155.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹
“River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 156: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/156.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab”
(irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 157: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/157.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2:
Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 158: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/158.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 159: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/159.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 160: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/160.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task:
(1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 161: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/161.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job,
(2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 162: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/162.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),
(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 163: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/163.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,
(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 164: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/164.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,
(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 165: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/165.jpg)
Evading Automated Review
Example Substitution 1: Homograph
自由 “Freedom”目田 “Eye field” (nonsensical)
Example Substitution 2: Homophone (both sound like “hexie”)
和谐 “Harmonious [Society]” (official slogan)
河蟹 “River crab” (irrelevant)
They can’t follow the conversation; our new keyword methods can!
The same task: (1) the analyst’s job, (2) language drift(#BostonBombings #BostonStrong),(3) People hiding in plain sight,(4) Look-alike modeling,(5) Starting point for sophisticated automatedtext analysis
27/29
![Page 166: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/166.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 167: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/167.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 168: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/168.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in Chains
Unambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 169: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/169.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experiments
Makes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 170: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/170.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 171: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/171.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.
Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 172: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/172.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silent
Applicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 173: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/173.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 174: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/174.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
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Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censors
Automated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
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Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analysts
Predicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
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Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorship
Understanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 178: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/178.jpg)
Conclusions
The Goals of Chinese Censorship:
For the Chinese people: Individually free, Collectively in ChainsUnambiguous evidence from: observational study, participantobservation, & randomized experimentsMakes Social Media Actionable for us:
Enables detailed, continuous, predictive monitoring of every Chinesegovernment, leader, policy, dissident, scandal, company, etc.Predicts state actions when other sources are silentApplicable to some other countries
New methods developed for:
Following conversations when people try to evade censorsAutomated keyword recommender for government analystsPredicting action on the ground from censorshipUnderstanding large volumes of unstructured text
28/29
![Page 179: Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship · 2014. 6. 27. · Reverse Engineering Chinese Censorship1 Gary King2 Institute for Quantitative Social Science Harvard University (Talk at](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051812/602c7d66d282c9347d1d69b0/html5/thumbnails/179.jpg)
For more information
GaryKing.org
j.mp/JenPan
j.mp/MollyRoberts
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Appendix
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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
31/29
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Censorship to Preempt Collective Action: Ai Weiwei’sArrest
Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 08 Apr 18
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 3/19−3/29 data
Mar. 29,5 days prior
Apr. 3,Ai Weiwei Arrested
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
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Predicting the South China Sea Peace Agreement
Jun 12 Jun 22 Jul 02
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2011
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Predicted % censortrend basedon 6/10−6/20 data
Actual %censorship
Jun. 20,5 days prior
Jun. 25,PeaceAgreement
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
33/29
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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test:
Mostextreme of all effects
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Censorship Pre-empting Collective Action: Wang Lijun’sDemotion
Jan 23 Jan 30 Feb 06 Feb 13
−0.
20.
00.
20.
40.
60.
81.
0
2012
% o
f Pos
ts C
enso
red
Jan. 28,5 days prior
Feb. 2,Wang Lijundemoted
Actual %censorship
Predicted %censor trend basedon 1/18−1/28 data
Placebo Test: Mostextreme of all effects
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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
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Uncensored Posts (w/o Collective Action Potential)Critical of the State
This is a city government [Yulin City,Shaanxi] that treats life with contempt, thisis government officials run amuck, a citygovernment without justice, a city govern-ment that delights in that which is vul-gar, a place where officials all have mis-tresses, a city government that is shamelesswith greed, a government that trades dig-nity for power, a government without hu-manity, a government that has no limits onimmorality, a government that goes back onits word, a government that treats kindnesswith ingratitude, a government that caresnothing for posterity. . .
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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
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Censored Post (with Collective Action Potential)Supporting the State
The bombing led not only to the tragedy ofhis death but the death of many governmentworkers. Even if we can verify what QianMingqi said on Weibo that the building de-molition caused a great deal of personal dam-age, we should still condemn his extreme actof retribution. . . . The government has con-tinually put forth measures and laws to pro-tect the interests of citizens in building de-molition. And the media has called attentionto the plight of those experiencing housingdemolition. The rate at which compensationfor housing demolition has increased exceedsinflation. In many places, this compensationcan change the fate of an entire family.
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