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Transcript of Returns to Public Investments in ECEC Oslo, Norway Implementing Policies for High Quality Early...
Returns to Public Investments in ECEC Oslo, Norway Implementing Policies for High Quality Early
Childhood Education and Care (ECEC)
January 24, 2012
Steve Barnett, PhD
Why invest in ECEC?
First 5 years lay foundations for language, academic abilities, habits & socio-emotional development
The window for change does not close after age 5, but “catch up” is costly
Worldwide more than 200 million children under 5 are failing to reach their developmental potential
Preschool interventions can enhance development and yield high economic returns
ECEC programs 0-5 in the US produce
long-term gains: 123 studies since 1960
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Treatment End Ages 5-10 Age >10
Eff
ects
(sd
)
Age at Follow-Up
All Designs HQ Designs HQ Programs
What determines cognitive gains?
Time of Follow-Up Negative
Research Design Quality Positive
Intentional Teaching Positive
Individualization Positive (small groups and 1 on 1)
Comprehensive Services Negative
n= 123 Studies
Nores and Barnett, 2009.
Effects of ECD Programs for 4 Outcomes by
Type of Program: Global Research
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Cognitive Social Schooling Health
Nutrition Cash Education
Key Lessons
Immediate impact should be twice the
size of the desired long-term impact
Multiple approaches effective
Education is a key component
Comprehensive services negative in
the US, positive elsewhere—results
depend on context/need
Potential Gains from ECEC Investments
Educational Success and Economic Productivity
Achievement test scores
Special education and grade repetition
High school graduation
Behavior problems, delinquency, and crime
Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency
Smoking, drug use, depression
Decreased Costs to Government
Schooling costs
Social services costs
Crime costs
Health care costs (teen pregnancy and smoking)
Economic Returns to Pre-K
for Disadvantaged Children
(In 2006 dollars, 3% discount rate) Cost Benefits B/C
Perry Pre-K $17,599 $284,086 16
Abecedarian $70,697 $176,284 2.5
Chicago $ 8,224 $ 83,511 10
Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of the Abecedarian program and
policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125; Belfield, C., Nores, M., Barnett, W.S., & Schweinhart, L.J. (2006). The High/Scope Perry
Preschool Program. Journal of Human Resources, 41(1), 162-190; Temple, J. A., & Reynolds, A. J. (2007). Benefits and costs of investments in preschool
education: Evidence from the Child-Parent Centers and related programs. Economics of Education Review, 26(1), 126-144.
Perry Preschool Economic Effects
50%
60%
13%
62%
40%
7%
76%
82%
36%
76%
60%
29%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Had savings Account at 40
Own Car at 40
Own Home at 27
Employeed at 40
Earned >$20K at 40
Earned >$20K at 27
Program No Program
Perry Preschool Crime Effects
34%
48%
55%
29%
27%
14%
33%
36%
7%
14%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Drug Crime by 40
Violent Crime by 40
Arrested >5X by 40
Arrested >5X by 27
Discipline Problems ages 6-12
Program No Program
Key Lessons
Economic returns can be extremely high
Returns generalize across different kinds of programs but vary with effectiveness
Soft skills matter as much as hard skills
Enhanced Pre-K in Mauritius:
Results of a Randomized Trial
Intervention: Nutrition, Education, &Exercise
Ages 3-5, teacher-child ratio 1:5.5 v. 1:30
Outcomes: Decreased behavior problems,
conduct disorder, crime and mental illness at
ages 17-23
Malnourished children gained more
ECEC Investments Around the Globe
Argentina: Preschool increased achievement & self-control
(e.g., attention and behavior) in 3rd grade
Colombia: Nutrition, preschool education & health care
increased school age cognitive ability.
Germany: Preschool increased school success of migrants.
UK: High-quality preschool increased achievement.
Uruguay: Preschool increased educational attainment and
decreased dropout.
Economic Returns Globally
Estimated returns for middle- and low-income
countries are 6:1 to 18:1 from increased earnings alone.
A 25% increase in preschool education would yield an estimated return of US $10.6 billion globally.
The Lancet, Volume 378 (9799), p. 1276, 8 October 2011
Why Universal Public ECEC?
All children gain from better ECEC
Disadvantaged gain more
Peer effects for disadvantaged substantial
Best coverage of disadvantaged
Higher cost, but a larger net benefit
Effects of Universal ECEC
OECD test scores higher and more equal as
access approaches 100%
France: Ecole Maternelle increased income
Norway: universal child care increased earnings
and employment
Arg. Uru. and UK: universal preschool raised
long-term achievement
US states: universal Pre-K improved test scores
and executive function for all children
Denmark, Quebec: universal child care null or
negative effects on children--quality matters
Universal ECEC Returns Depend on
Policy and Practice
Returns to public ECEC investments depend on intensity and quality
Quality depends on teachers, class size, and classroom composition (peers)
Quality depends on leadership and a continuous improvement cycle with reflection & planning
Proven designs, high standards, adequate funding, and evaluation all help
3.9
19.9
34.6
27.7
12.1
1.70.0 0.24.2
32.2
47.4
16.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1.00-1.99 2.00-2.99 3.00-3.99 4.00-4.99 5.00-5.99 6.00-7.00
ECERS-R Score (1=minimal, 3=poor 5= good 7=excellent)
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Cla
ssro
om
s
00 Total (N = 232) 08 Total (N = 407)
NJ Raised Quality in Public and Private
Conclusions
ECEC can be a strong public investment
Increased achievement
Job and GDP growth
Decreased economic and educational inequality and fewer social problems
Universal ECEC can yield a higher return and greater equality than targeted ECEC
Intensity and quality are the keys to high returns
Continuous improvement cycles can assure quality
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2. Barnett, W. S., & Masse, L. N. (2007). Early childhood program design and economic returns: Comparative benefit-cost analysis of
the Abecedarian program and policy implications, Economics of Education Review, 26, 113-125.
3. Behrman, J. R., Cheng, Y., & Todd, P. E. (2004). Evaluating preschool programs when length of exposure to the program varies: A
nonparametric approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(1), 108-132
4. Berlinski, S., Galiani, S., & Gertler, P. (2009). The effect of pre-primary education on primary school performance. Journal of
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5. Berlinski, S. Galiani, S., & Manacorda, M. (2008). Giving children a better start: preschool attendance and schoolage profiles.
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