Rethinking Development - Duke University

17
Rethinking Development Conference on International Development Duke University 16 November 2018 Kaushik Basu Cornell University

Transcript of Rethinking Development - Duke University

Page 1: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Rethinking Development Conference on International Development

Duke University

16 November 2018

Kaushik BasuCornell University

Page 2: Rethinking Development - Duke University

The origins

• Development economics was part and parcel of mainstream economics in 1776.

• The great divergence of development economics from the mainstream occurred with the rise of neoclassical economics and the marginalistrevolution of the late 19th century.

• 19 February 1860 may be treated as the birthday of modern economics.

Page 3: Rethinking Development - Duke University

19th February 1860

Stanley Jevons to his brother, 1 June 1860: He had recently stumbled upon “the true Theory of Economy.” So novel his thinking was that “I cannot now read other books on the subject without indignation.”

Diary entry on 19 February 1860: “At home all day and working chiefly at Economy, arriving I suppose at a true comprehension of Value.”

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 4: Rethinking Development - Duke University

The marginalist school rises, andinterest in development wanes.Development economics, as an independent discipline, emerges in the mid-20th century, with the writings of Ragnar Nurkse, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, Albert Hirschman and Arthur Lewis.

The immediate impetus was the end of colonialism.

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 5: Rethinking Development - Duke University

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 6: Rethinking Development - Duke University

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 7: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Learning development in the field

• Village conversations

• Policymaking in Delhi and Washington

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 8: Rethinking Development - Duke University

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 9: Rethinking Development - Duke University

The power of theory:India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000Re

serv

es ($

mill

ion)

Page 10: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Inte

rest

rate

, Per

cent

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Q1

1993

Q4

1993

Q3

1994

Q2

1995

Q1

1996

Q4

1996

Q3

1997

Q2

1998

Q1

1999

Q4

1999

Q3

2000

Q2

2001

Q1

2002

Q4

2002

Q3

2003

Q2

2004

Q1

2005

Q4

2005

Q3

2006

Q2

2007

Q1

2008

Q4

2008

Q3

2009

Q2

2010

Q1

2011

Q4

2011

Q3

2012

Q2

2013

Q1

2014

Q4

2014

Q3

2015

10 year bonds, quarterly average, in percent

Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Other Eurozone

10 year bonds, quarterly average, in percent

Globalization illustrated: Eurozone Bond Yields

Note: “Other Eurozone” is a simple average of the bond yields of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. Data for Estonia and Latvia are not available.

Source: International Financial Statistics.

Page 11: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Here is one example of a frame.

Social Norms and Development

Page 12: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Here is one example of a frame.

Social Norms and Development

Page 13: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Organ Donation: The Importance of the Default Option

Effective consent rates, by country. Explicit consent (opt-in, gold) and presumed consent (opt-out, blue)

Source: Johnson & Goldstein (2003)

Page 14: Rethinking Development - Duke University

Corruption control

• Fines and punishment as game changers• But who enforces the law and why?

• Pervasive corruption and corruption control as political instrument

• Modeling The Republic of Beliefs

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 15: Rethinking Development - Duke University

IIT Bombay Institute Lecture 2018

Page 16: Rethinking Development - Duke University

The Squares Game

Page 17: Rethinking Development - Duke University

The Squares Game