Retail in Scotland 2015: Scottish Towns and Cities Presentation

Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns & Ci6es 2015

Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC

Sco;sh Town Centres 2015

By The Local Data Company Presented 21st October 2015

#LDCInsight

Keynote presenta=ons Leigh Sparks University of S=rling MaChew Hopkinson Local Data Company

#LDCInsight

Chair Jane Bradley The Scotsman

The panel Phil Pren6ce Scotland’s Town Partnership

Margaret McCulloch Member Of The ScoGsh Parliament

Audrey Michie Aberdeenshire Council



Today’s agenda

Introduc6on and Research methodology

Research ques6ons and findings

Pu;ng Scotland in context

Panel discussion and Q&A

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Quality of life is not only about what you find in shops; it’s about the landscape. ”

“ Donald Tusk, President of the European Council

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What do we do?

Gap Analysis Impar=al

Evidence based research

PorTolio Analysis

Openings & Closures

Persistent vacancy

Retail Parks

Shopping Centres

Health Scores

Diversity Indices FooTall

Catchment Profiles

Analy=cs Na=onwide

Vacancy rates

Insight Knowledge

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How we do it?

Tweet using #LDCInsights

65,000 updates a month



Evidence based analysis

Ci6es & Towns (50+ units)

850

Shopping Centres (10+ units)

675

Retail Parks (3+ units)

1,075




Scotland Coverage

141 LOCATIONS TRACKED

46,599 BUSINESSES TRACKED

#LDCInsight

Retail Parks

87

67 Shopping centres



Retailing in Scotland’s Largest Towns and Ci6es 2015

Professor Leigh Sparks, Ins6tute for Retail Studies,

University of S6rling



Background •  The crisis of the high street

and the crisis of the town centre

•  From Portas to Fraser •  ScoGsh Government’s

Town Centre Ac=on Plan •  Change will not be swia



Town Centers •  Retailing is important •  Retailing is not the sole driver but vital nonetheless



Data •  Local Data Company/University of S=rling •  Third ScoGsh Summit •  101 places (towns and ci=es) •  Using given boundaries and data from 2012



Na6onal Vacancy Rates 2013-‐15



Na=onal vacancy rates H1 2013 – H1 2015


England ScotlandWales

Vaca

ncy r

ate (

%) 16.0

17.0

15.0

14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 201410.0

Source: LDC



Average retail vacancy rates by town

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Vacancy rates by loca=on type 2015

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What is the Retail Scale of Sco;sh Towns and Ci6es?

•  Glasgow and Edinburgh dominate the retail scene •  There is a complicated mix of larger towns and smaller ci=es

and considerable scale overlap •  Only 27 towns have seen the number of retail premises since

2012 •  Ci=es and larger towns seem to be on a different trajectory to

the smaller towns in our subset, where retail premise numbers have edged up slightly



What is the Vacancy rate and How is it Changing?

•  The number of retail premises vacant in ci=es has reduced notably since 2012

•  The vacancy rates in towns and ci=es has fallen since 2012 and now stands at an average of 13% (cf 14% in 2013)

•  The varia=on in vacancy rates has reduced sugges=ng that towns with the worst situa=ons have begun to tackle them successfully



What is the Vacancy rate and How is it Changing? -‐ 2

•  Biggar has the lowest vacancy rate and Banff the highest •  Towns have very different trajectories with half the towns

seeing falling vacancy rates and half seeing increasing rates •  Persistent vacancy is highest in Banff and lowest in Alness and

Inverurie •  22 towns and 1 city (Dundee) have perisitent vacancy rates

above 10% i.e. 1 in 10 premises have been vacant for three years



What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es?

•  Retailing is the major component of the premises in the towns and ci=es, with ci=es being more leisure oriented than most towns

•  Gourock is the most independent retail town and Gretna the least •  The least independent towns tend to be dominated by planned centres •  There is no discernible pajern in terms of towns becoming more or less

independent in their make up



What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es? -‐2

•  Towns and ci=es are becoming more service premise focused

•  There has been a reduc=on in the propor=on of comparison retailing units in many towns, perhaps reflec=ng the impact of the internet



What is the Retail Structure of our Towns and Ci6es? -‐ 3

•  Penicuik has the highest propor=on of charity retailers and Burn=sland the lowest

•  Ardrossan has the highest BMG Index and Callendar the lowest •  55% of towns saw an increase in the charity shop propor=on since 23012,

compared to 40% for BMG •  29 towns saw increases in both charity shop and BMG Index measures,

compared to 34 towns which saw decreases in both



Conclusions •  Vacancy rate con=nues to fall –  Economy –  Restructuring –  Adjustment

•  Towns have differing trajectories •  Dis=nc=veness and adjustment are being driven from the

ground up



Web: www.s=rlingretail.com Email: Leigh.sparks@s=r.ac.uk Telephone: 01786 467384 Twijer: sparks_s=rling

Contact Points



What is happening GB wide?



Retail sales – 2010-‐2015

#LDCInsights Source: BDO High Street Tracker

-‐5

-‐10 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Overall Lifestyle Fashion Homeware

15

10

5

0



UK Consumer Confidence 2010-‐2015

#LDCInsights Source: HM Treasury

10

5

0

-‐5

-‐10

-‐15

-‐20

-‐25

-‐30

-‐35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015



Shopper Behaviour

#LDCInsights

90%

80%

70%

60%

100%

50%

40%

18-24 35-4425-34 45-54 55+

30%

20%

10%

0%

33.6 32.9

46.4

20.7

54.6

30.4

37.6

37.833.1

25.7

14.818.0

19.520.3

17.6

3.56.34.0

6.1 3.83.13.9

3.9 5.2 4.0

Shop mostly in storeResearch online - buy in store Shop mostly online

Shop online - collect in storeOtherResearch in store - buy online

Source: ONS



GB Shop vacancy rates 2008 -‐ 2015


Source: LDC

Shop

vaca

ncy r

ate (

%)

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

2008-122009-06

2009-122010-06

2010-122011-06

2011-122012-06

2012-122013-06

2013-122014-06

2014-122015-06

0.0



Shopping centre vacancy rates H1 2013 – H1 2015



Vaca

ncy r

ate (

%)

19.020.0

18.017.0

14.0

16.0

13.0

15.0

12.0

8.09.0

10.011.0

H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 20147.0

Source: LDC



Vacancy in retail parks H1 2013 – H1 2015



Vaca

ncy r

ate (

%)

12.013.0

11.0

10.09.08.0

5.06.07.0

H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H1 2015H2 20144.0

Source: LDC



Persistent vacancy by % of total units H1 2015


Source: LDC

Less than 1 year 2-3 years 3+ years1-2 years

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

SmallHigh

Street

LargeHigh

Street

Shopping Centre

Retail Park

MediumHigh

Street

3.7%

4.3%

5.0%

5.6%

2.1%

1.6%

2.3%

2.2%

3.0%

1.4%

1.1%

1.4%

1.4%

2.1%

1.3%

2.9%

3.6%

3.9%

4.2%

1.9%



GB Openings & Closures H1 2015

#LDCInsights

Num

ber o

f uni

ts

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

-10,000

-15,000

10,112

-10,693

Openings Closures

Source: Local Data Company



GB Openings & Closures by independent/mul=ple

#LDCInsights

Num

ber o

f uni

ts

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

8,000

10,000

6,000

-4,000

-6,000

-8,000

-10,000

Independents Multiples

Openings Closures

7,915

2,197

-8,059

-2,634




GB Openings & Closures by business type

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Multiples Independents

Net

cha

nge

in u

nit n

umbe

rs

-1,000

0

2,000

1,000

6,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

-2,000

-30002009 (H2)

2010(H1)

2010(H2)

2011(H1)

2011 (H2)

2012 (H1)

2012 (H2)

2013 (H1)

2013 (H2)

2014 (H1)

2014(H2)

2015(H1)




Convenience stores growth since 2012

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Num

ber o

f uni

ts

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,500

22,000

20,000

19,500

19,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

Convenience stores




The essence of retail is theatre. ” “

Tom Peters

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Openings & Closures by region/na=on

#LDCInsights

West Midlands

Scotland

Yorks & The Humber

Wales

North West

South West

South East

North East

Greater London

East of England

East Midlands

Number of outlets

1,000 4,0003,000 6,000 7,0000 2,000 5,000

Openings Closures




Churn rates across GB by region/na=on

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Scotland

West Midlands

Greater London

Wales

South East

North West

GB

South West

East Midlands

East of England

Yorks & The Humber

Churn rate (%)2.0% 8.0%6.0% 12.0% 14.0%0.0%

11.7%

11.5%

10.5%

10.3%

9.9%

9.7%

9.4%

9.0%

8.9%

8.5%

8.2%

4.0% 10.0%



Sharing knowledge tocreate a better place to be.LDC #LDCInsights

Source Wallpaper22.com



Foofall: Are outlets achieving their poten6al?

London Retail park: lower fooTall higher conversion & ATV, weekend peaks. Food outlets extend dwell =me on Sundays – impact from opening hours legisla=on?

Central London: high volumes, several peaks, longer evening tail = opportuni=es •  Understand peak

shopping =mes •  Should opening

hours be extended?

•  Benchmark loca6on types

•  Op=mise staff accordingly

•  Impact of weather and events



Foofall: How important are daily varia6ons? •  ‘High street’ fooTall typically increases from Monday to Saturday

–  Market Harborough, Reading, Basingstoke all have peaks on Saturday –  London profiles vary according to micro-‐loca=on factors. Impacts store opera=ons.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Average<External<Footfall<by<Town</<Day

Market<Harborough Reading Basingstoke London

Holborn – low weekend traffic. Understand value of local worker popula=on to maximise weekday sales



LDC / MS Health Index version 3.0

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Summary

•  Vacancy rates are improving but not everywhere •  Wales is well behind England and Scotland •  The ‘North’ con=nues to have above average rates •  Worst centres at >25% and best at <2% •  Shopping centres whilst improving have highest average rate •  The number of long term vacant units is rising (+24.4%) •  5 year change ranges from -‐12.5% to +7.5% with 57% improving




Key findings on openings and closures •  Independents have gone nega=ve for first =me in 3 years

•  Chains con=nue to exit high street in favour for out of town

•  Comparison goods decline has accelerated

•  Leisure bubble?

•  Service retail polarisa=on between banks and ‘beauty/grooming’

•  Greater London highly compe==ve and thus churning

•  Mix between Independents (65%) and chains (35%) has changed by 1% towards chains in last 12 months

•  Change of use and development star=ng to happen in stock profile #LDCInsights



I can’t change the direc=on of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to reach my des=na=on. ”

“ Jimmy Dean




Sco;sh Town Centres 2015

By The Local Data Company Presented 21st October 2015

#LDCInsight

Keynote presenta=ons Leigh Sparks University of S=rling MaChew Hopkinson Local Data Company

#LDCInsight

Chair Jane Bradley The Scotsman

The panel Phil Pren6ce Scotland’s Town Partnership

Margaret McCulloch Member Of The ScoGsh Parliament

Audrey Michie Aberdeenshire Council



Number of retail premises by town

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Number of retail premises by city

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Retail vacancy change by town

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Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Number of vacant retail units by town

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Number of vacant retail units by city

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Average retail vacant units by town

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Vacancy rates across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Change in vacancy rate across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Convenience stores growth since 2012

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Persistent vacancy across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Change in retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Retail mix across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Independent retailers across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Number of Charity Shops across ScoGsh towns and ci=es

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Dingwall 6.8

Burntisland 0.0 Fort William 6.9

Gretna 0.0

Forres 7.5Livingston 0.3

Haddington 7.5Broxburn 1.1

Penicuik 9.3Auchterarder 1.6



BMG Score by town

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Booze, Money and Gambling 2015 (as % of total stock)

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Quality of life is not only about what you find in shops; it’s about the landscape. ”

“ Donald Tusk, President of the European Council

#LDCInsight



Download your free copy of the 22 page report here: www.localdatacompany.com/reports

Retail in Scotland 2015: Scottish Towns and Cities Presentation

Retail

Transcript of Retail in Scotland 2015: Scottish Towns and Cities Presentation