RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH Dabur India Ltd. BUY -...

22nd September, 2016

Poised to gain disproportionately from herbal wave Dabur, a 132 years old brand, has been the pioneer in Ayurveda based health & personal care products in India. Dabur has a strong portfolio of powerful brands including Real, Dabur Chyawanprash with the focus primarily on ANH offerings. We believe that Dabur is set to gain from the emerging preference for ANH products. Notably, the promotion of herbal products (contributes ~85% to domestic sales of Dabur) by several of its peers will help in expanding the market.

Bouquet of powerful brands

Currently, Dabur has 16 brands with a turnover of over Rs1bn, and three brands with turnover of more than Rs10bn. Importantly, to enhance brand presence, Dabur spends about 13-16% of its sales on ads every year. Dabur’s diverse product portfolio (health supplements, hair care, home care etc) & presence in niche categories has resulted in sales CAGR of robust ~16% over FY11-16. Further, we expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of ~9% over FY16-18E due to three key factors: 1) new products in its innovation pipeline, 2) expansion of distribution network and 3) revival in rural demand from H2FY17 onwards.

Premiumisation strategy to play out well In order to enhance usage of its products, Dabur is launching premium differentiated offerings across product categories. For instance, in Chyawanprash category, Ratnaprash is available at 2x the price of base variant. Going forward, we believe premium portfolio would help in expanding the margins.

Normal monsoons this year to improve prospects

Through ‘Project Double’, Dabur has almost tripled its rural penetration from 14,865 villages in FY11 to 44,128 villages in FY15. While rural economy has been in slow lane in the past few years owing to poor monsoons, the rural demand is expected to improve from H2FY17 onwards on account of better monsoons coupled with government’s focus on farm sector. Moreover, the implementation of seventh pay commission & GST would bode well for the company.

Valuations – Dabur is better placed than peers given its differentiated offerings, leadership position & distribution reach. We expect revenue & PAT to grow at a CAGR of 9% & 14% respectively over FY16-18E. Further, EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 130bps to 19.3% on account of new product launches & continued focus on premium products. We initiate Dabur with a BUY rating with a TP of Rs322 at 35x FY18E EPS.

RETAIL EQUITY RESEARCH

Dabur India Ltd. Rating as per Largecap 12months investment period FMCG

BSE CODE:500096 NSE CODE: DABUR CMP Rs286 TARGET Rs322 RETURN 13%

Bloomberg CODE: DABUR IN SENSEX: 28,773

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 50,319

Enterprise Value (cr) 49,780

Outstanding Shares (cr) 176.1

Free Float 32.0

Dividend Yield (%) 0.8

52 week high 320

52 week low 231

6m average volume (lakh) 15.1

Beta 0.3

Face value 1.0

Shareholding % Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17

Promoters 68.1 68.1 68.0

FII’s 20.4 19.6 19.9

MFs/Insti 4.7 5.5 5.5

Public& Others 6.8 6.8 6.7

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Price Performance 3mth 6mth 1Year

Absolute Return (8%) 15% 3%

Absolute Sensex 8% 14% 12%

Relative Return* (15%) 1% (9%)

*over or under performance to benchmark index

Y.E Mar (Rs cr) FY16 FY17E FY18E

Sales 8,454 8,876 9,967

Growth (%) 8.0 5.0 12.3

EBITDA 1,520 1,637 1,922

EBITDA Margins% 18.0 18.4 19.3

PAT Adj. 1,253 1,361 1,620

Growth (%) 17.5 8.6 19.1

Adj. EPS 7.1 7.7 9.2

Growth (%) 17.4 8.6 19.1

P/E 40.2 37.0 31.1

P/B 12.0 10.0 8.4

EV/EBITDA 33.0 30.4 25.4

ROE (%) 33.2 29.6 29.4

D/E 0.0 0.0 0.0

220

270

320

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

DABUR Sensex (Rebased)

Set to ride the herbal wave Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), the leading Indian FMCG company, is also a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. It operates in key consumer product categories like hair care, oral care, health care, skin care, home care and foods.

Dabur has carved a niche through focused product differentiation brought about by ANH (ayurvedic, natural & herbal) products.

Dabur has a wide distribution network, covering 5.3mn retail outlets, one of the highest among FMCG companies.

Dabur is poised to benefit from revival in rural growth (contributing ~45% to sales) led by better monsoon.

We are factoring 130bps increase in overall EBITDA margin to 19.3% by FY18E driven by new premium offerings & prudent cost management.

We initiate Dabur with a “Buy” rating valuing the stock at 35x FY18E EPS arriving at a target price (TP) of Rs322.

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS Research COMPANY INITIATING REPORT

BUY

Valuations Our target price of Rs322 is based on 35x FY18E EPS. Over the past two years, the stock has traded between 28-40x one-year forward earnings, whilst its two-year average is 34x. Our target multiple (35x) is in line with consensus multiple, given the acceleration in growth trajectory from FY18 onwards primarily driven by full impact of better monsoons coupled with enhanced distribution reach & constant innovation. We forecast a 13.7% EPS growth CAGR for FY16-18E for Dabur.

P/E one year forward

Source: Company, Geojit BNP Paribas Research; *SD-Standard Deviation

Financial Analysis

Volume growth continued to outperform peers Dabur’s revenue grew at a robust CAGR of ~19% over FY09-15 on account of three factors: a) its diverse & niche product portfolio, b) new product launches and c) synergies derived from the acquisitions made in domestic (Fem in FY09) & international markets (Namaste in FY11, Hobi in FY11). While the past few years have been difficult for most of the consumer companies owing to deficient monsoons (affected rural demand), Dabur managed to maintain its healthy revenue growth of 11-16% led by volume growth of 7-12%. However, FY16 was a tough year for the company (posted sales growth of just 8%) as there was intense competition in health supplements (Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey) mainly due to entry of Patanjali. Likewise, foods business reported growth of mere 2.6% YoY in FY16 led by supply disruptions from Nepal.

FY17 to remain soft, revenue to pick up momentum from FY18 onwards With a sales growth of just 1.2% YoY in Q1, Dabur started the current fiscal (FY17) on a sluggish note. Overall slowdown in consumption space, lack of pricing growth & heightened competitive intensity is expected to keep revenue momentum soft in FY17. However, in FY18, we believe sales to grow by robust 12% on YoY basis on account of better consumption demand in both rural (full impact of better monsoons in 2016) and urban India (implementation of 7th pay commission). Notably, the revenue growth would be largely driven by volumes. Moreover, increasing focus of Dabur on innovative brand offerings would augur well for the company. Thereby, we expect the top-line of the company to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% over FY16-18E.

Revenue to pick up momentum from FY18 onwards

Note – FY17E is not exactly comparable to earlier periods due to adoption of Ind-AS accounting norms; Source: Company, Geojit BNP Paribas Research

Steady margin improvement on lower input costs During FY12-16, EBITDA margin has remained at

elevated levels of 16-18% led by the company’s strong

brand equity in the FMCG healthcare portfolio

coupled with benign input cost environment.

Notably, during the period under review, Dabur

reported highest margin of 18% in FY16.

EBITDA margin to improve by 130bps over

FY16-18E

We expect EBITDA margin to further improve to

19.3% by FY18E on account of Dabur’s continued

focus on the healthcare portfolio. Moreover, Dabur’s

plan to launch multiple premium offerings (which

enjoy higher realisations) across categories (especially

in the healthcare & skin care) would augur well for

the company. Importantly, Dabur has consistently

shown strength in efficiently managing its input costs

and ad spends in order to sustain the margins.

6,169 7,075 7,827 8,454 8,876 9,967

16.3%14.7%

10.6%

8.0%

5.0%

12.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

Revenue (Rs.Crore) Revenue growth YoY (%)

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16

P/E 1 yr Fwd Avg 1yr Fwd P/E

Avg + 1 SD Avg - 1SD

EBITDA margins to improve to 19.3% by FY18E

Source: Company, Geojit BNP Paribas Research

PAT margins to improve by 144bps In FY16, Adj. PAT stood at Rs1,253cr, reporting a growth of ~18% CAGR over FY12-16. PAT margin improved by 120bps to 14.8% in FY16. We expect Adj. PAT to grow at a CAGR of 13.7% with 144bps improvement in PAT margin over FY16-18E.

PAT margin to expand by 144bps during FY16-18E


Healthy balance sheet

Dabur has been generating strong operating cash flows (OCF) over the years. During FY12-16, OCF has grown at a CAGR of ~15%. As of March’16, Dabur is a net debt free company, with cash & cash equivalents of Rs2,744crores. Dabur plans to invest Rs500crores in FY17E mainly towards a new unit being planned in the north-east (at an outlay of Rs250crores), which would provide tax benefits. Notably, working capital is just 3.9% of sales ensuring strong free cash flow generation. Moreover, Dabur has track record of steady profit growth, ROE of over 30% (in last 5 years) and dividend payout in mid-thirties.

Return ratios trend


Investment Rationale… A well-diversified portfolio

The product portfolio of Dabur is spread across three main verticals namely Healthcare comprising health supplements, digestives and over the counter (OTC) products, HPC (Home & Personal Care) comprising skin care, oral care, home care & hair care and Foods. In FY16, the healthcare, HPC and foods segments contributed 33%, 49% and ~18% to overall domestic FMCG revenues, respectively. Given, the diversified portfolio we believe Dabur would continue to deliver consistent and profitable performance.

Breakdown of Domestic FMCG business by vertical


Category-wise sales of Domestic FMCG business


988 1,160 1,316 1,520 1,637 1,922

16.0 16.4 16.818.0 18.4 19.3

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000


RsC

r

EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%)

768 915

1,066

1,253 1,361

1,620

12.4 12.913.6

14.815.3

16.3

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700


RsC

r

Adj. PAT Adj. PAT Margin (%)

40.1

38.3

35.3

33.2

29.6 29.4

33.434.6 34.2 34.5

32.2 32.6

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

37.0

39.0

41.0


ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Domestic FMCG

Healthcare

(33%)

HPC (49%)

Foods (18%)

Hair Care, 23%

Health Supplements,

18%

Foods, 18%

Oral Care, 15%

OTC & Ethicals, 9%

Digestives, 6%

Home Care, 6%

Skin Care, 5%

Robust portfolio of brands The company has a strong portfolio of brands (Dabur Chyawanprash, Real, Hajmola, Vatika, Amla, Honey, Dabur Red, Meswak, Fem) with the focus largely on ayurvedic & healthcare offerings. Currently, Dabur has 16 brands with a turnover of over Rs1bn, and three brands with turnover of more than Rs10bn. Importantly, to enhance brand presence, Dabur spends about 13-16% of its sales on ads every year. Dabur’s diverse product portfolio & presence in niche categories has resulted in sales CAGR of robust ~16% over FY11-16. Further, we expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9% over FY16-18E due to three key factors: 1) new products in its innovation pipeline, 2) expansion of distribution network and 3) revival in rural demand from H2FY17 onwards.

Continue to build bigger brands


Maintaining leadership position Owing to its broad-based product portfolio, well-entrenched distribution network & strong brand equity, Dabur has consistently demonstrated strong leadership across various categories including digestives & juices. Dabur has recently launched Dabur Honey Fruit Spreads in four healthy fruit

variants to grow market share of its honey products. Dabur has successfully positioned honey as a food product, thus leading to a market share of over 70% in the branded honey market. Apart from this, its products Dabur Chyawanprash and Hajmola are the largest selling Ayurvedic medicine and digestive tablets with about 65% market share in both categories. Notably, Dabur has recently gained market share in the oral care category with Dabur’s Red toothpaste moving from the sixth to the third slot. In Q1FY17, oral care grew by 11.6%

YoY, led by double-digit growth in the toothpaste portfolio where Red toothpaste and Meswak continued the strong momentum driven by consumer advocacy & focused marketing activities.

Commanding leadership position across most categories

# - Relative Competitive Position; Source: Company, Geojit BNP Paribas Research

Innovative product offerings to fortify brand positioning Over the years, Dabur has launched several innovative products in the domestic & international markets. Since its inception, the company has efficiently leveraged ayurveda & herbal product offerings to its advantage. On the domestic front, Dabur introduced seven variants in Chyawanprash category including Ratnaprash (a premium health supplement). It also extended the Hajmola brand to the beverage market with the launch of Hajmola Yoodley. Similarly, Dabur recently launched Dabur Honey Fruit Spreads (extension of brand Honey) in four healthy fruit variants. Interestingly, Real fruit juices were launched in 1998 and now the company offers more than 30 variants in the portfolio. Likewise, in international markets, Dabur introduced new products such as Dermoviva face care range, Dermoviva baby wipes, Amla men hair tonic, Vatika cactus & coconut hair mask.

10bn+ 1bn+

Thrust on innovations


Premiumisation strategy to play out well In order to enhance usage of its products, Dabur is launching premium differentiated offerings across beverages, health supplements, air care, hair care etc. For instance, in Chyawanprash category, Ratnaprash is available at 2x the price of base variant. Likewise, the newly launched Keratex hair oil is priced at 3x when compared to Dabur Amla. Similarly, Dabur has launched new delivery formats in Odonil fresheners including gel, floral bouquet, spray & pluggy. The realisation for a pluggy is ~3.5x when compared to Odonil block. Going forward, we believe premium portfolio augurs well for the company and it would help in expanding the margins.

Premiumisation across product categories


Enhancing the rural connect The company has efficiently expanded its distribution network in rural India through ‘Project Double’. With the help of this project (rolled out in FY13), Dabur has almost tripled its rural penetration from 14,865 villages in FY11 to 44,128 villages in FY15. As a result, the revenue contribution from the rural areas has increased from 30% earlier to 45%. Further, the management is looking forward to extend its rural reach to ~60,000 villages by FY17.

Beneficiary of normal monsoon While rural sales have been in a slow lane in the past few years owing to weak monsoons, the rural demand is expected to improve, going forward on account of better monsoons coupled with government’s focus on farm sector. The government has recently taken several initiatives (crop insurance, enhanced allocation for NREGA in Union Budget) to revive rural demand. Hence, we expect Dabur to capitalise on a recovery in rural consumption as a result of strong presence in rural India (contribution from rural segment is nearly 45%). Moreover, the implementation of seventh pay commission (would boost urban demand) & GST (gains from supply chain efficiency and improving competitiveness with unorganized players) would bode well for the company.

Expanding reach in urban areas In FY15, Dabur launched ‘Project 50-50’ wherein it has strived to focus on top 130 cities in India which together represent 50% of urban consumption This project involves segregating the grocery channel teams between wholesale & retail and focussing marketing activities and distribution expansion. Similarly, ‘Project CORE’ (Chemist Outlets and Range Expansion) was launched in FY14 to enhance effective coverage of chemist outlets in 150 focus towns which has further provided impetus to OTC portfolio. During FY15, the direct reach in chemist channel rose from 1.72 lakhs to 2.12 lakhs.

Project LEAD to lead the way forward In FY16, Dabur added another leg to its distribution enhancement programme with the launch of ‘Project LEAD’ (Leveraging through Empowered Anchoring and Detailing). This is an initiative focused towards creating a separate front end team for Healthcare (OTC & Ethicals portfolio) & FMCG and is expected to enhance the reach of healthcare division of the company. Under this initiative, Dabur is building advocacy for its portfolio of OTC & ethical products by

Odonil (Rs) Toothpaste (Rs/200

gm)

Hair Oils (Rs/100

ml)

Chyawanprash

(Rs/kg)

Odonil

Block

40 Babool 42 Dabur

Amla

46 Special

(Immunity

etc.)

295

Gel 80 Dabur Red 88 Vatika

Enriched

56 Fruit

Variants

300

Floral

Bouquet

99 Meswak 90 Dabur

Almond

60 Sugarfree 350

Spray 140 Vatika

Olive

60 Ratnaprash 600

Pluggy 135 Keratex 136

Premium

over base

variant

3.4x Premium

over base

variant

2x Premium

over base

variant

3x Premium

over base

variant

2x

1. Honey Fruit Spreads

2. Juices

3. Chyawanprash

4. Hair Oil

5. Hajmola

engaging with more than 30,000 healthcare professionals, both Ayurvedic & Allopathic. About 170 medical representatives (MRs) have already been hired for detailing the products to doctors and this number is expected to beef up to 250 by FY17E.

Expansion in distribution


Patanjali to help in expanding the herbal market

Dabur, a 132 years old ‘young’ brand, has efficiently leveraged ayurveda & herbal product offerings to its advantage. But, the recent rise of Patanjali Ayurveda has the potential to impact sales of Dabur, which competes with Patanjali for nearly 55% of its domestic revenues. Like Dabur, Patanjali has presence in similar categories such as Hair Oils, Toothpaste, Chyawanprash, Shampoo and Honey. Importantly, the price of Patanjali’s products is 15-30% lower when compared to products of Dabur. However, we believe the overall impact on Dabur would be limited as the promotion of herbal products by Patanjali will expand the overall market for ayurvedic products. Moreover, Dabur is well equipped with its array of brands with high consumer recall to counter Patanjali. Importantly, Dabur has a wide distribution network as against Patanjali, covering over 5.3 million retail outlets with a high penetration in both urban and rural markets.

To ride the herbal wave Dabur plans to enhance its range of ayurvedic products to address emerging healthcare issues. It has partnered with government body Central Council of Research in Ayurvedic Sciences (CCRAS) to collaborate with, develop and commercialise

ayurveda. During FY16, Dabur entered into a license agreement with CCRAS to commercially produce two ayurvedic drugs.

International business - 32% of sales International business division (IBD) includes Dabur’s organic overseas business (contributes ~22% to sales) as well as the acquired entities of Hobi Group (contributes ~4% to sales) and Namaste Laboratories (~6% to sales). In FY16, the international business contributed 32% to the consolidated revenues. While Asia, US and Africa each contribute ~17-22% to its international revenues, Middle East accounts for 33% of its overseas business.

IBD growth to turn favourable During FY12-16, the international business grew at a CAGR of 15%. However, geo-political issues continue to hurt growth in the Middle East and North African (MENA) markets. In Q1FY17, SAARC business recorded healthy 22% YoY growth on the back of robust show in Nepal (up 27.4%) and Sri Lanka. Likewise, Hobi reported sales growth of 15% YoY. However, Namaste’s sales stood flat YoY impacted by currency headwinds (now stabilized).While the company is completing the process of localizing the supply chain in its Namaste geographies in Africa, management plans to improve margins to high-single digits. We expect IBD to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% over FY16-18E.

Breakdown of International business


Dabur International (FY16)

Organic Business (70%) Inorganic Business (30%)

Project Double

Project 50-50

Project CORE

Aimed at leveraging the potential of Top 130 towns which contribute to

50% of urban consumption

Segregating the grocery channel teams for wholesale & retail

Initiative is in line with renewed focus on urban markets

To enhance chemist coverage and provide further impetus to our

Health Care portfolio

Direct Chemist Coverage is currently 213,000

Strategy is to increase coverage and range for better throughput

Rolled out in FY13 to expand direct coverage in rural markets

Direct Village coverage has increased from 14000 villages in FY11 to

44,000 villages in FY15

Focus on increasing efficiency and productivity of the channel

Dabur India Ltd: Business overview

Established in 1884, Dabur India Ltd (Dabur) is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. It operates in key consumer products categories viz; hair care, oral care, health care, skin care, home care and foods. It has 16 brands with a turnover of over Rs1bn. Its products have a global presence and are today available in over 120 countries. Notably, its brands are highly popular in the Middle East, SAARC countries, Africa, US, Europe and Russia. Dabur's overseas revenue accounts for 32% of the total turnover. Moreover, Dabur has a wide distribution network, covering over 5.3 million retail outlets with a high penetration in both urban and rural markets.

Business Structure


Product portfolio across various categories


Key Risks: Weak rural demand

Heightened competitive intensity in some of its categories.

Steep rise in input costs

Dabur

India Ltd.

Domestic

(68%)

International

(32%)

Domestic FMCG (65%)

Others (3%)

Organic International

(22%)

Namaste Labs (6%)

Hobi Group (4%)

Oral Care Dabur Red, Meswak, Babool

Hair Care Dabur Amla Hair Oil, Dabur Almond Shampoo

Skin Care Dabur Gulabari, Fem, Oxy Life

Home Care Odonil, Odomos, Sanifresh

Health

Supplements

Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey, Dabur

Glucose

Digestives Hajmola, Pudin Hara, Nature Care

OTC &

Ethicals

Dabur Lal Tail, Honitus, Dashmularishta

Foods Real Activ, Real Wellnezz

Consolidated Financials Profit & Loss Account

Y.E March (Rs cr.)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

Sales 7,075 7,827 8,454 8,876 9,967

% change 14.7% 10.6% 8.0% 5.0% 12.3%

EBITDA 1,160 1,316 1,520 1,637 1,922

% change 17.4% 13.5% 15.4% 7.7% 17.5%

Depreciation 97 115 134 151 170

EBIT 1,062 1,201 1,386 1,486 1,752

Interest 54 40 48 44 44

Other Income 128 158 219 251 307

PBT 1,136 1,319 1,557 1,694 2,016

% change 19.2% 16.1% 18.0% 8.8% 19.0%

Tax 219 251 302 330 393

Tax Rate (%) 19.3% 19.0% 19.4% 19.5% 19.5%

Reported PAT 914 1,066 1,253 1,361 1,620

Adj. (1) - - - -

Adj. PAT 915 1,066 1,253 1,361 1,620

% change 19.1% 16.5% 17.5% 8.6% 19.1%

No. of shares (cr.) 174.4 175.7 175.9 175.9 175.9

Adj EPS (Rs) 5.2 6.1 7.1 7.7 9.2

% change 7.2% 15.7% 17.4% 8.6% 19.1%

DPS (Rs) 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0

Cash flow

Y.E March (Rs cr.)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

Pre-tax profit. 1,136 1,319 1,557 1,694 2,016

Depreciation 5 (2) 134 151 170

Changes in W.C 82 (118) (242) (22) (74)

Others 61 78 (89) (208) (264)

Tax paid (186) (230) (278) (330) (393)

C.F.O 1,098 1,047 1,083 1,285 1,456

Capital exp. (215) (267) (217) (500) (200)

Change in inv. 10 (721) (563) (400) (800)

Other invest.CF 98 112 161 251 307

C.F - investing (107) (876) (618) (649) (693)

Issue of equity 0 46 17 - -

Issue/repay debt (491) (42) 58 - -

Dividends paid (279) (395) (422) (529) (625)

Other finance.CF (34) (26) (47) (44) (44)

C.F - Financing (804) (417) (395) (573) (668)

Chg. in cash 187 (246) 69 63 95

Closing cash 519 276 220 283 378

Balance Sheet

Y.E March (Rs cr.)

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

Cash 519 276 220 283 378

Accounts Receivable 675 711 810 850 955

Inventories 973 973 1,097 1,158 1,277

Other Cur. Assets 237 364 428 444 486

Investments 1,076 1,813 2,524 2,924 3,724

Gross Fixed Assets 2,413 2,541 2,780 3,275 3,475

Net Fixed Assets 1,767 1,877 1,950 2,294 2,324

CWIP 22 50 45 50 50

Intangible Assets - - - - -

Def. Tax (Net) (45) (59) (77) (77) (77)

Other Assets 43 41 48 48 48

Total Assets 5,267 6,048 7,044 7,974 9,164

Current Liabilities 1,603 1,668 2,007 2,101 2,290

Provisions - - - - -

Debt Funds 951 961 804 804 804

Other Liabilities 41 46 51 53 56

Equity Capital 174 176 176 176 176

Reserves & Surplus 2,482 3,178 3,984 4,815 5,811

Shareholder’s Fund 2,656 3,354 4,160 4,991 5,987

Minority Interest 16 18 22 24 27

Total Liabilities 5,267 6,048 7,044 7,974 9,164

BVPS (Rs) 15.3 19.2 23.8 28.5 34.2

Ratios

Y.E March

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

FY18E

Profitab. & Return

EBITDA margin (%) 16.4 16.8 18.0 18.4 19.3

EBIT margin (%) 16.8 17.4 19.0 19.6 20.7

Net profit mgn.(%) 12.9 13.6 14.8 15.3 16.3

ROE (%) 38.3 35.3 33.2 29.6 29.4

ROCE (%) 34.6 34.2 34.5 32.2 32.6

W.C & Liquidity

Receivables (days) 34.7 32.9 34.7 34.7 34.7

Inventory (days) 81.9 74.7 80.5 81.0 79.9

Payables (days) 67.7 61.4 70.0 70.4 69.6

Current ratio (x) 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2

Quick ratio (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6

Turnover &Levg.

Gross asset T.O (x) 3.1 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9

Total asset T.O (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2

Int. covge. ratio (x) 19.6 29.9 28.9 34.0 40.0

Adj. debt/equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Valuation ratios

EV/Sales (x) 7.1 6.5 5.9 5.6 4.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 42.9 38.4 33.0 30.4 25.4

P/E (x) 54.5 47.1 40.2 37.0 31.1

P/BV (x) 18.7 14.9 12.0 10.0 8.4

Recommendation Summary (last 3 years)


Large Cap Stocks; Mid Cap and Small Cap;

Buy - Upside is 10% or more. Hold - Upside or downside is less than 10%. Reduce - Downside is 10% or more.

Buy - Upside is 15% or more. Accumulate* - Upside between 10% - 15%. Hold - Absolute returns between 0% - 10%. Reduce/Sell - Absolute returns less than 0%. To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute ‘Accumulate’ as Buy and ‘Reduce’ as Sell.

The recommendations are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. * For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. Please note that the stock always carries the risk of being upgraded to BUY or downgraded to a HOLD, REDUCE or SELL.

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited has outsourced the preparation of this research report to DION Global Solutions Limited whose relevant

disclosures are available hereunder. However, Geojit BNP Paribas's research desk have reviewed this report for any untrue statement of material fact or any

false or misleading information.

General Disclosures and Disclaimers

CERTIFICATION

I, Rohit Joshi, employee of Dion Global Solutions Limited (Dion) is engaged in preparation of this report and hereby certify that all the views expressed in this

research report (report) reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject issuer or securities.

Disclaimer

This report has been prepared by Dion and the report & its contents are the exclusive property of the Dion and the client cannot tamper with the report or

its contents in any manner and the said report, shall in no case, be further distributed to any third party for commercial use, with or without consideration.

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Limited has outsourced the assignment of preparation of this report to Dion.

Recipient shall not further distribute the report to a third party for a commercial consideration as this report is being furnished to the recipient solely for the

purpose of information.

Dion has taken steps to ensure that facts in this report are based on reliable information but cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express

or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this report. It is hereby confirmed that wherever Dion has employed a rating system in this

report, the rating system has been clearly defined including the time horizon and benchmarks on which the rating is based.

Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this report is not, and should not be

construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Dion has not taken any steps to ensure that the

securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent

judgment. Opinions or estimates expressed are current opinions as of the original publication date appearing on this report and the information, including

the opinions and estimates contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Dion is under no duty to update this report from time to time.

Dion or its associates including employees engaged in preparation of this report and its directors do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of

the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the

prices of securities, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.

The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for all equally and it is recommended that an independent investment

advisor be consulted. In addition, nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or

strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation of Dion.

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Dates Rating Target 22-Sep-16 BUY 322

Geojit BNP Paribas, 34/659-P, Civil Lane Road, Padivattom, Kochi – 682024 Toll Free Number: 1800-425-5501 / 1800-103-5501, Paid Number: 91 – 0484 – 3911777, Email id: [email protected] Research Entity SEBI Registration Number: INH200000345

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES:

Dion is engaged in the business of developing software solutions for the global financial services industry across the entire transaction lifecycle and inter-

alia provides research and information services essential for business intelligence to global companies and financial institutions. Dion is listed on BSE

Limited (BSE) and is also registered under the SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 (SEBI Regulations) as a Research Analyst vide Registration No.

INH100002771. Dion’s activities were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with requirements under the Listing Agreement and / or SEBI (Listing

Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015 with the BSE in the last five years. Dion has not been debarred from doing business by BSE /

SEBI or any other authority.

In the context of the SEBI Regulations, we affirm that we are a SEBI registered Research Analyst and in the course of our business, we issue research reports

/research analysis etc that are prepared by our Research Analysts. We also affirm and undertake that no disciplinary action has been taken against us or our

Analysts in connection with our business activities.

In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also provided which may be considered by the reader

before making an investment decision:

1. Disclosures regarding Ownership

Dion confirms that:

(i) It/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject company (ies) covered herein at the time of

publication of this report.

(ii) It/its associates have no actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (ies) covered herein at the end of the

month immediately preceding the date of publication of this report.

Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:

(i) He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject company (ies) covered herein, and they have no other material conflict

in the subject company at the time of publication of this report.

(ii) He, his associates and his relatives have no actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (ies) covered herein at the

end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this report.

2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:

During the past 12 months, Dion or its Associates:

(a) Have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company (b) Have not received any compensation for investment banking

or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company (c) Have not received any compensation for products or services other than

investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject. (d) Have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject

company or third party in connection with this report

3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the subject company:

It is affirmed that I, Rohit Joshi employed as Research Analyst by Dion and engaged in the preparation of this report have not served as an officer, director

or employee of the subject company

4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:

Neither Dion /its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject company.

Copyright in this report vests exclusively with Dion.

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