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Retail Equity Research

Bata India Ltd FMCG

BSE CODE : 500043 NSE CODE: BATAINDIA

BLOOMBERG CODE: BATA:IN SENSEX : 29,916

Accumulate

12M Investment Period Rating as per Mid Cap

CMP Rs1,250 TARGET Rs1,400 RETURN 12%

(Closing: 20-03-20)

20th March, 2020

COMPANY UPDATE

Covid-19 impact volumes…valuation at 10Yr average Bata India Ltd (BIL) is the largest retailer and leading manufacturer of footwear in India with ~1400 retail stores as on Dec 2019.

We revise our Target to Rs.1,400 (earlier Rs1,850) factoring the demand weakness due to COVID-19 epidemic, but upgrade to Accu-mulate rating considering the recent sharp fall in stock price.

Q3FY20 revenue growth moderates to 6.5%YoY, while PAT growth was healthy at 14%YoY.

EBITDA margin (ex Ind-AS 116 impact) improved by 30bps YoY to 21.3% due to expansion in gross margin which improved 210bps on account of improving premium mix and reduction in RM cost.

BIL’s cost reduction initiatives continue to give results as EBITDA margin improves consistently and has reached all time high of 21.3%. Rent expense as % of sales improved by 70bps YoY.

BIL’s strong focus to increase footfalls along with acceleration in store additions via franchisee will support revenue growth.

We have cut down our volume estimates to factor the impact on Corona virus spread. Expect BIL’s revenue/earnings to grow at 9%/15% CAGR over FY20-22E .

BIL’s strong focus on cost control measures will support earnings growth. Currently, BIL is trading at 38x 1Yr Fwd P/E. We value BIL at 37x (10Yr Avg) on FY22 EPS, upgrade to Accumulate.

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) Rs.16,065

Enterprise Value (cr) Rs.15,810 Outstanding Shares (cr) 12.9

Free Float 47%

Dividend Yield 0.5% 52 week high Rs.1,897 52 week low Rs.1,017

6m average volume (cr) 0.1

Beta 1.09

Face value Rs5

Shareholding (%) Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20

Promoters 53.0 53.0 53.0

FII’s 12.3 11.3 11.1

MFs/Insti 20.4 21.7 21.3

Public 11.7 11.3 11.8

Others 2.63 2.74 2.8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Promoter pledge NIL NIL NIL

Price Performance 3 month 6 Month 1 Year

Absolute Return -26.2% -23.1% -7.5%

Absolute Sensex -28.2% -21.3% -22.1%

Relative Return* 2.1% -1.8% 14.6%

over or under performance to benchmark index

Standalone (cr) FY20E FY21E FY22E

Sales 3,127 3,314 3,727

Growth (%) 6.8 6.0 12.5

EBITDA 534 577 658

EBITDA Margin(%) 17.1 17.4 17.7

PAT Adj. 368 429 489

Growth (%) 11.5 16.7 13.9

Adj.EPS 28.6 33.4 38.0

Growth (%) 11.5 16.7 13.9

P/E 43.7 37.4 32.9

P/B 7.8 6.6 5.6

EV/EBITDA 28.5 25.8 22.2

ROE (%) 19.3 19.1 18.4 D/E 0.0 0.0 0.0

Vincent Andrews

Research Analyst

KEY CHANGES: TARGET RATING EARNINGS

Healthy revenue growth… Q3FY20 revenue growth was healthy at 7%YoY amid industry slow down. BIL’s continuous investment in areas of product-innovation, store renovation, cus-tomer experience and marketing campaigns over the past few years supported steady growth. BIL’s strong focus on improving footfalls along with higher ad spend and scaling-up of premium products in the revenue mix will continue to support revenue growth. The company strengthened its channel focus by rolling out Omni-channel home delivery offerings in more than 60% of ts stores result-ing into improved conversions. “Stay Camera Ready’ with new collections every Friday was the new campaign rolled out during the quarter to attract customers. BIL expects to add ~100 new stores in FY20 and also plans to open ~500 fran-chisee stores over 5 years. In FY19, the company has added 71 new stores, 51 franchisee stores and has renovated 47 outlets. We expect BIL’s strong focus on improving footfalls along with store additions will improve revenue growth. The company is aggressively increasing the ad- spend also (2.25% of sales in FY19 Vs 1.5% in FY18). Expect revenue to grow at 11%CAGR over FY20-22E.

Strong operating performance continues... BIL reported healthy growth in earnings at 16%YoY supported by 30bps im-provement in EBITDA margins (ex Ind-AS 116 impact). EBITDA margin im-provement was largely due to expansion in gross margins (220bpsYoY) partially offset by increase in staff cost. BIL has been on the path of premiumisation by adopting technologies like memory cusion & insolia and with several new launches such as Hush Puppies, Naturalizer, European collection etc, resulted in improved average selling price. Moreover the company’s cost control measures is also giving results. Rent as a % of sales has declined by 70bps YoY in Q3FY20 (+80bps YoY in FY19). Store additions via franchisee will continue to control fixed costs. We expect ~18% CAGR in earnings over FY20-22E.

Covid-19 impact volumes…valuation at 10Yr average The slowdown in economic activities due to spread of Corona virus is likely to impact demand while disruption in supply chain will affect sourcing & distribu-tion. We have cut down our volume estimates to factor the impact. However, the sharp decline in crude will benefit the industry with reduction in costs. BIL’s strong focus on increasing footfalls through improving customer experience and higher advertisement expenditure along with accelerated store additions will boost revenue growth. Currently, BIL is trading at 38x 1yr Fwd P/E. We value BIL at 37x (10Yr Avg) to arrive at a new Target of Rs1,400 (earlier Rs1,850), and upgrade to Accumulate rating.

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Quarterly Financials (Standalone)

Profit & Loss

Change in Estimates

Old estimates New estimates Change %

Year / Rs cr FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E

Revenue 3,216 3,577 3,127 3,314 -2.8% -7.4%

EBITDA 880 989 534 577 -39.3% -41.6%

Margins (%) 27.4% 27.6% 17.1% 17.4% 1070bps 1030bps

Adj. PAT 396 498 368 429 -7.2% -13.8%

EPS 30.8 38.7 28.6 33.4 -7.1% -13.7%

Rs cr) Q3FY20 Q3FY19

YoY

Growth % Q2FY19

QoQ

Growth % 9MFY20 9MFY19

YoY

Growth %

Sales 829.6 778.7 6.5% 722.0 15% 2433.7 2249.0 8.2%

EBITDA 177.0 163.6 8% 97.8 81% 433.1 382.7 13%

EBITDA margins 21.3% 21.0% 30bps 13.5% 780bps 17.8% 17.0% 1,140bps

Depreciation 16.0 17.0 -6% 17.6 -9% 49.4 47.4 4%

EBIT 161.0 146.6 10% 80.2 101% 383.7 335.3 14%

Interest 0.5 0.9 -47% 0.8 -42% 2.1 3.0 -27%

Other Income 17.1 13.7 24% 17.7 -4% 51.7 40.6 27%

Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA 0.0 0.0 NA

PBT 177.6 159.4 11% 97.1 83% 433.3 373.0 16%

Tax 58.2 56.2 4% 26.0 124% 140.1 131.7 6%

Reported PAT 119.4 103.2 16% 71.1 68% 293.2 241.3 21%

Adjustments 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA 0.0 0.0 NA

Adj PAT 119.4 103.2 16% 71.1 68% 293.2 241.3 21%

No. of Shares 12.9 12.9 0% 12.9 0% 12.9 12.9 0%

EPS (Rs) 9.3 8.0 16% 5.5 68% 22.8 18.8 21%

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27th December 2018

Standalone Financials

PROFIT & LOSS BALANCE SHEET

RATIOS CASH FLOW

Y.E March (Rs Cr) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Sales 2629 2928 3127 3314 3727

% change 6.6 11.4 6.8 6.0 12.5

EBITDA 354 477 534 577 658

% change 27.4 34.9 12.0 8.1 14.0

Depreciation 60 64 70 71 81

EBIT 293 413 465 506 577

Interest 4 4 3 2 2

Other Income 51 69 72 76 86

PBT 340 478 534 580 660

% change 45.5 40.6 11.6 8.6 13.9

Tax 116 149 166 151 172

Tax Rate (%) 34% 31% 31% 26% 26%

Reported PAT 224 330 368 429 489

Adj.* 0 0 0 0 0

Adj. PAT 224 330 368 429 489

% change 23.9 47.4 11.5 16.7 13.9

No. of shares (cr) 13 13 13 13 13

Adj EPS (Rs) 17.4 25.6 28.6 33.4 38.0

% change 23.9 47.4 11.5 16.7 13.9

DPS (Rs) 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

Y.E March (Rs Cr) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Net inc. + Depn. 284 394 437 500 570

Non-cash adj. -1 -1 -32 -2 -3

Changes in W.C -54 37 -243 -24 -61

C.F. Operation 229 430 162 474 506

Capital exp. -71 -87 -88 -100 -100

Change in inv. 0 0 0 0 0

Other invest.CF -16 -25 -15 -15 -34

C.F - Investment -87 -112 -102 -115 -134

Issue of equity 0 0 0 0 0

Issue/repay debt 0 0 0 0 0

Dividends paid -52 -52 -52 -52 -52

Other finance.CF -4 -4 -3 -2 -2

C.F - Finance -75 -68 -55 -55 -54

Chg. in cash 68 250 5 304 318

Closing cash 589 839 844 1148 1466

Y.E March FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Profitab & Return

EBITDA margin (%) 13.5 16.3 17.1 17.4 17.7

EBIT margin (%) 11.2 14.1 14.9 15.3 15.5

Net profit mgn.(%) 8.5 11.3 11.8 12.9 13.1

ROE (%) 15.9 20.4 19.3 19.1 18.4

ROCE (%) 10.3% 13.0% 13.3% 13.9% 13.4%

W.C & Liquidity Receivables (days) 10.8 9.6 9.3 10.7 10.4

Inventory (days) 224.0 227.5 232.0 228.2 221.9

Payables (days) 187.5 186.7 162.6 135.9 132.2

Current ratio (x) 2.6 2.8 3.9 4.3 4.6

Quick ratio (x) 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.6

Turnover &Leverage Gross asset T.O (x) 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.6

Total asset T.O (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1

Int. covge. ratio (x) 69.9 116.5 162.4 214.3 266.9

Adj. debt/equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Valuation EV/Sales (x) 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.5 3.9

EV/EBITDA (x) 43.7 31.9 28.5 25.8 22.2

P/E (x) 71.9 48.7 43.7 37.4 32.9

P/BV (x) 10.9 9.2 7.8 6.6 5.6

Y.E March (Rs Cr) FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Cash 589 839 844 1148 1466

Accounts Receivable 89 65 94 100 112

Inventories 762 839 861 914 1029

Other Cur. Assets 289 289 300 322 362

Investments 5 5 5 5 5

Gross Fixed Assets 491 573 663 763 863

Net Fixed Assets 293 311 331 360 379

CWIP 12 17 15 15 15

Intangible Assets 2 4 4 4 4

Def. Tax (Net) 105 110 145 149 155

Other Assets 0 0 0 0 0

Total Assets 2145 2479 2599 3018 3527

Current Liabilities 636 678 513 544 613

Provisions 30 54 24 34 39

Debt Funds 0 0 0 0 0

Other Liabilities 0 0 0 0 0

Equity Capital 64 64 64 64 64

Reserves & Surplus 1414 1682 1997 2374 2810

Shareholder’s Fund 1479 1747 2062 2438 2874

Total Liabilities 2145 2479 2599 3018 3527

BVPS 115 136 160 190 224

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Source: Bloomberg, Geojit Research.

27th December 2018

Dates Rating Target 8th March 2016 Accumulate 556

06th June 2016 Accumulate 619

10th August 2016 Reduce 516

30th November 2016 Hold 432

14th February 2017 Buy 584

05th August 2017 Hold 665

28th November 2017 Hold 768

06th March 2018 Hold 772

28th May 2018 Buy 900

23rd July 2018 Hold 900

05th November 2018 Hold 1,068

20th February 2019 Accumulate 1,404

03rd June 2019 Hold 1,390

19th November 2019 Hold 1,850

20th March 2019 Accumulate 1,400

General Disclosures and Disclaimers

CERTIFICATION

We, Vincent K A and Vinod Nair, authors of this Report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report reflect our personal views about any or all of the

subject issuer or securities. This report has been prepared by the Research Team of Geojit Financial Services Limited, hereinafter referred to as Geojit.

COMPANY OVERVIEW

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We have prepared this report based on information believed to be reliable. The recommendations herein are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The invest-

ment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch

to rating. For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. The stocks always carry the risk of being upgraded to buy or down-

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which is contrary to those contained in this report.

Definition:

Buy: Acquire at Current Market Price (CMP), with the target mentioned in the research note.

Accumulate: Partial buying or to accumulate as CMP dips in the future.

Hold: Hold the stock with the expected target mentioned in the note.

Reduce: Reduce your exposure to the stock due to limited upside.

Sell: Exit from the stock.

Not rated : The analyst has no investment opinion on the stock.

Investment Criteria Ratings Large caps Midcaps Small caps

Buy Upside is above 10% Upside is above 15% Upside is above 20%

Accumulate - Upside is between 10% - 15% Upside is between 10% - 20%

Hold Upside is between 0% - 10% Upside is between 0% - 10% Upside is between 0% - 10%

Reduce/sell Downside is more than 0% Downside is more than 0% Downside is more than 0%

Not rated -

To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute ‘Accumulate’ as Buy and ‘Reduce’ as Sell.

The recommendations are based on 12 month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute positive/negative return basis. It

is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a temporary mismatch to rating. For reasons of valuations/

return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. Please note that the stock always carries the risk of being upgraded to BUY or down-

graded to a HOLD, REDUCE or SELL.

Neutral- The analyst has no investment opinion on the stock under review

Recommendation summary

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27th December 2018

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