RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index€¦ · RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index MOOD BAROMETER FOR THE...
Transcript of RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index€¦ · RESULTS WINDENERGY trend:index MOOD BAROMETER FOR THE...
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RESULTS
WINDENERGY trend:indexMOOD BAROMETER FOR THE
ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND INDUSTRY
SPRING 2020
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INTRODUCTIONOVERVIEW & PARTICIPATION
Representativeness was determined based on the following categories: Regional distribution, activities across the value chain, coverage of different
production areas, onshore and offshore segments, position of respondent. The distribution of response rates (based on IP addresses) across countries and
regions corresponds to the market volume of the respective country or region while accounting for the onshore and offshore segments. This ensures a high
level of representativeness. The only exception is China which, due to its relatively isolated market and low response rate, is proportionally
underrepresented compared to the rest of the Asia region. This statement relates to existing onshore and offshore capacities as well as the importance, or
market share, of the wind industry (turbines, towers, foundations, projects, development, etc.).
The fifth edition of the industry’s mood barometer once again enjoyed strong participation. The
proportion of fully answered questionnaires remains at a high level although one question was
added (addressing hydrogen). Representativeness therefore continues to be high.
Survey period Total respondents Surveys completedPercenta
ge
1st survey – Q2 2018 (16 March to 19 April 2018) 1,187 674 57%
2nd survey – Q4 2018 (25 September to 9 November 2018) 1,655 958 58%
3rd survey Q2 2019 (2 April to 13 May 2019) 1,254 817 65%
4th survey Q4 2019 (23 October to 30 November 2019) 1,026 712 70%
5th survey Q2 2020 (17 March to 29 April 2020) 1,156 782 68%
Total 6,278 3,943 63%
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INTRODUCTIONOBJECTIVES, METHOD, PARTICIPANTS (1 OF 2)
• The distribution of response rates (based on IP addresses) across countries and regions largely corresponds to the relevant market volume. This ensures a high level of representativeness. The only exception is China which, due to its relatively isolated market and low response rate, is proportionally underrepresented compared to the rest of the Asia region. This also applies to current onshore and offshore wind capacities as well as the importance, or market share, of the individual stages of the industry’s value chain (turbines, towers, foundations, projects, development, etc.).
• The survey includes all onshore and offshore regions globally. The pre-defined market regions were: Germany, Europe (including Germany), North America, Asia, and Rest of World (ROW), including Africa, Australia as well as Central & South America.
• In the following diagrams, Germany is represented separately; however, the results for all of Europe include Germany.
WindEnergy trend:index (WEtix) is a semi-annual survey first launched in 2018 by WindEnergy Hamburg, the leading global trade fair for onshore and offshore wind energy, in collaboration
with wind:research, the leading market research institute for the wind energy industry, to gauge the mood in the industry.
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INTRODUCTIONOBJECTIVES, METHOD, PARTICIPANTS (2 OF 2)
• As before, the respondents’ activities are primarily concentrated on the onshore segment, which delivered roughly three times as many responses as offshore. About 40% of respondents are active in both market segments, which is consistent with the distribution identified by recent research.
• Nearly half of responding companies engage in operation and maintenance business activities. Furthermore, around 40% participate in project development activities; more than one third are manufacturers, and about one fourth perform installation work. Main activities within manufacturing are mostly focused on making turbines, rotor blades and other components.
• Around 30% of respondents focus on the German market and the European market, respectively. About 15% of respondents are also active in the Asian and the North American markets.
• More than one third of respondents hold a managerial position, followed by respondents from sales, ‘other’, R&D and design as well as maintenance and service.
Furthermore, the distribution of the market participants’ activities and those of their respective
companies as reflected by the WindEnergy trend:index (WEtix) mood barometer is representative of the market structures.
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SUMMARYKEY INSIGHTS – COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH
AND 5TH SURVEYS
• The distribution of respondents across industry segments is similar to that of the autumn 2019 survey: 45% of
respondents are active in the onshore market segment, 15% in offshore, and 40% in both segments.
• The assessments of the current business environment for onshore wind energy in North America and Asia are stagnant
at a high level. There are some improvements to be reported for Europe and Germany: respondents are now giving
more positive assessments of the business climate in Europe, and opinions about the conditions for wind energy in
Germany are not as negative as before.
• The current business environment for offshore wind energy is judged differently region by region: while the conditions
in Asia continue to be seen in an increasingly positive light, the views about conditions in Europe are stagnant. Survey
results for Germany are returning to the positive side while North America is in decline but remains in the positive
range.
• The market situation for onshore wind energy in North America, Asia and RoW continues to receive positive
assessments, despite a marked decline of some metrics. The results for Europe are slightly in the negative range for the
first time, while the mood in Germany is slowly recovering but remains on the negative side overall.
• While expectations for the onshore wind industry in the next two years are gently trending in a positive direction for
Europe and North America, the future prospects for onshore wind energy in Asia and RoW are weakening without
leaving the positive range. In Germany the future of onshore wind energy is viewed much more positively than before
but remains on the negative side for the time being.
The fifth online survey, conducted in spring 2020, again saw a high response rate. All in all more
than 6,000 individuals have taken part, assessing the prospects of the global onshore and
offshore wind energy industry. The key findings are as follows:
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SUMMARYKEY INSIGHTS – COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH
AND 5TH SURVEYS
• The global market situation in the offshore wind segment has once again received positive assessments for Europe,
North America and Asia, but the trend is clearly pointing downwards. The metrics for RoW have dropped into the
negative range for the first time. Assessments in Germany are trending slightly upwards and are not as negative as
before.
• The trend in the North American, Asian and RoW offshore wind segments is on a slight decline but remains generally
positive. The markets in Europe are receiving positive marks for the coming two years in a trend that is gaining
momentum. The values for Germany are increasing vigorously into the positive range.
• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Germany continues to be viewed as negative, the
values are improving slightly, with the future prospects showing a strong increase, resulting in a more positive overall
picture. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are negative with a slight downward trend, but a strong
positive development is expected in two years.
• Today's onshore wind energy market situation for Europe is slightly down in the negative range whereas the future is
seen in a more positive light, with values trending upwards again. Assessments for offshore wind energy this year have
declined somewhat, but a positive development is anticipated in two years.
• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in North America continuous to be viewed as positive,
values are trending strongly downwards, whereas the future prospects are seen more optimistically. The overall
picture remains positive with values slightly increasing. Current assessments for offshore wind energy remain positive
but are declining significantly. A positive development is expected in two years.
A slightly bleaker mood in the international wind energy market: while the general spirit remains
largely positive, the current results reveal declining values. In Germany both the current and the
long-term mood in the market have turned, making way for a bit more optimism.
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SUMMARYKEY INSIGHTS – COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH
AND 5TH SURVEYS
• While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Asia continuous to be viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards. Expectations for the future are generally positive, remaining at a level similar to the previous survey. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are declining slightly but remain positive; the general development is expected to continue at today's positive levels.
• The current market situation for onshore wind energy in ‘Rest of World’ countries continuous to receive positive marks but the results are trending slightly downwards. Expectations for the future remain clearly positive, if with slight losses. By contrast, the current assessments for offshore wind energy are slightly negative but a positive development is expected in two years.
Expectations for the coming years are significantly more optimistic: the market development is
receiving positive marks, in most cases trending upwards.
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SUMMARYKEY INSIGHTS – COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, 3RD, 4TH
AND 5TH SURVEYS
• As in the past years, respondents expect consolidation processes in the onshore and offshore segments to continue at high intensity with a slight weakening trend.
• Expectations regarding the optimisation potential driven by digitalisation remain nearly unchanged at a high level for both onshore and offshore wind energy.
• In terms of the saving potential of new technologies, the mood is again in the medium to high range, with the potential for offshore wind energy receiving better ratings than for onshore.
• More than half of respondents believe it is likely or very likely that the production of green hydrogen will play a key role for wind energy.
* Note:
Since the implementation, and in particular, the design of the spring 2020 survey occurred prior to the comprehensive restrictions and lockdown measures imposed in response to the coronavirus crisis, and since it was deemed important to avoid compromising the comparability of this survey with its predecessors while acknowledging the fact that the ‘corona’ effect is probably unique (even if it persists for a while), this WEtix purposely contains no questions specifically referring to the coronavirus. Depending on the development of the situation, this issue will be re-evaluated before the autumn survey.
In addition to the traditional catalogue of questions, the fifth online survey (Spring 2020) for the
first time included an additional question to address the hydrogen topic. Questions addressing
the corona crisis where purposely avoided.*
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OVERVIEW OF COUNTRIES STUDIED
The survey covers all onshore and offshore wind energy regions globally. The pre-defined
market regions included: Germany, Europe (including Germany), North America, Asia and Rest
of World (RoW), including Africa, Australia as well as Central and South America.
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MARKET SEGMENTS
The survey respondents’ activities primarily centre on the onshore segment, which delivered
roughly three times as many responses as offshore. About 40% of respondents are active in both
market segments.
38,8% 42,7%48,1% 50,7%
44,8%
18,1%17,1%
14,8% 12,9%14,9%
43,1% 40,2% 37,1% 36,4% 40,3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
In which segment of the wind industry is your company’s focus?
Onshore Offshore Both/Don´t know
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ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT FOR ONSHORE WIND
The assessments of the current business environment for onshore wind energy in North America
and Asia are stagnant at a high level. There are some improvements to be reported for Europe
and Germany: respondents are now giving more positive assessments of the business climate in
Europe, and opinions about the conditions for wind energy in Germany are not as negative as
before.
-0,06
0,21
0,04
0,370,27
-0,25
0,20,12
0,43
0,26
-0,42
0,230,29
0,73
0,57
-0,91
0,01
0,28
0,71
0,49
-0,7
0,11
0,29
0,71
0,51
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the current development of the framework conditions for onshore wind energy
(overall: legal, political and social)?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT FOR OFFSHORE WIND
The current business environment for offshore wind energy is judged differently depending on the
region: while the conditions in Asia continue to be seen in an increasingly positive light, the views
about conditions in Europe are stagnant. Survey results for Germany are returning to the positive side
while North America is in decline but remains in the positive range.
0,24
0,47
0,08
0,39
0
0,2
0,51
0,24
0,51
0,040,04
0,53
0,37
0,74
0,27
-0,09
0,50,42
0,77
0,050,04
0,52
0,3
0,8
0,1
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the current development of the framework conditions for offshore wind energy
(overall: legal, political and social)?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL ONSHORE
WIND MARKET – CURRENT
The market situation for onshore wind energy in North America, Asia and RoW continues to
receive positive assessments, despite a marked decline of some metrics. The results for Europe
are slightly in the negative range for the first time, while the mood in Germany is slowly
recovering but remains on the negative side overall.
-0,06
0,180,11
0,350,27
-0,06
0,25 0,22
0,41
0,29
-0,26
0,28
0,39
0,74
0,58
-0,99
0,01
0,4
0,620,53
-0,72
-0,08
0,2
0,31
0,51
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the global market for the onshore wind industry in the current year?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL ONSHORE
WIND MARKET – NEXT TWO YEARS
While expectations for the onshore wind industry in the next two years are gently trending in a
positive direction for Europe and North America, the future prospects for onshore wind energy
in Asia and RoW are weakening, without leaving the positive range. In Germany the future of
onshore wind energy is viewed much more positively than before but remains on the negative
side for the time being.
0,18
0,37
0,22
0,520,45
0,11
0,37
0,26
0,5
0,37
0,06
0,45
0,57
0,840,75
-0,45
0,24
0,44
0,77 0,74
-0,05
0,39
0,5
0,730,66
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the global market for the onshore wind industry in two years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL ONSHORE
WIND MARKET – CURRENT
The global market situation in the offshore wind segment has once again received positive
assessments for Europe, North America and Asia, but the trend is clearly pointing downwards.
The metrics for RoW have dropped into the negative range for the first time. Assessments in
Germany are trending slightly upwards and are not as negative as before.
0,28
0,47
0,13
0,42
0,04
0,23
0,49
0,23
0,49
0,080,11
0,52
0,37
0,71
0,3
-0,2
0,45 0,43
0,77
0,1
-0,14
0,33
0,16
0,64
-0,03
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the global market for the offshore wind industry in the current year?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL OFFSHORE
WIND MARKET – NEXT TWO YEARS
The trend in the North American, Asian and RoW offshore wind segment is on a slight decline
but remains generally positive. Similarly, markets in Europe are receiving positive marks for the
coming two years in a trend that is gaining momentum. The values for Germany are increasing
vigorously into the positive range.
0,37
0,59
0,3
0,59
0,180,28
0,54
0,38
0,6
0,210,29
0,680,58
0,86
0,46
0,04
0,58
0,7
0,9
0,350,27
0,650,6
0,87
0,34
Germany Europe (incl. GER) North America Asia Rest of the world
Ind
ex
How do you assess the global market for the offshore wind industry in two years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN GERMANYCOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS
While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Germany continues to be viewed as
negative, the values are improving slightly, with the future prospects showing a strong increase,
resulting in a more positive overall picture. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are
negative with a slight downward trend, but a strong positive development is expected in two years.
-0,06
0,180,28
0,37
-0,06
0,11
0,230,28
-0,26
0,060,11
0,29
-0,99
-0,45
-0,2
-0,04
-0,72
-0,05-0,14
0,27
Onshore
current year
Onshore
in tow years
Offshore
current year
Offshore
in two years
Ind
ex
How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Germany in the current year and in two years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN EUROPE (INCL. D)COMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS
Today's onshore wind energy market situation for Europe is slightly down in the negative range
whereas the future is seen in a more positive light, with values trending upwards again.
Assessments for offshore wind energy this year have declined somewhat, but a positive
development is anticipated in two years.
0,18
0,370,47
0,59
0,25
0,37
0,490,54
0,28
0,450,52
0,68
0,01
0,24
0,45
0,58
-0,08
0,390,33
0,65
Onshore
current year
Onshore
in tow years
Offshore
current year
Offshore
in two years
Ind
ex
How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Europe (incl. GER) in the current year and in two
years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN NORTH AMERICA COMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS
While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in North America continuous to be
viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards, whereas the future prospects are
seen more optimistically. The overall picture remains positive with values slightly increasing.
Current assessments for offshore wind energy remain positive but are declining significantly. A
positive development is expected in two years.
0,110,22
0,13
0,30,22 0,26 0,23
0,380,39
0,57
0,37
0,58
0,4 0,44 0,43
0,7
0,2
0,5
0,16
0,6
Onshore
current year
Onshore
in tow years
Offshore
current year
Offshore
in two years
Ind
ex
How do you assess the market for the wind industry in North America in the current year and in two
years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN ASIACOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS
While the current market situation for onshore wind energy in Asia continuous to be viewed as positive, values are trending strongly downwards. Expectations for the future are generally positive, remaining at a level similar to the previous survey. The current assessments for offshore wind energy are declining slightly but remain positive; the general development is expected to continue at today's positive levels.
0,35
0,520,42
0,59
0,410,5 0,49
0,6
0,740,84
0,71
0,86
0,62
0,77 0,77
0,9
0,31
0,730,64
0,87
Onshore
current year
Onshore
in tow years
Offshore
current year
Offshore
in two years
Ind
ex
How do you assess the market for the wind industry in Asia in the current year and in two years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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ASSESSMENT OF THE ONSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WIND MARKET IN ROW COUNTRIESCOMPARISON CURRENT VS. IN TWO YEARS
The current market situation for onshore wind energy in ‘Rest of World’ countries continuous to receive
positive marks but the results are trending slightly downwards. Expectations for the future remain
clearly positive, if with slight losses. By contrast, the current assessments for offshore wind energy are
slightly negative but a positive development is expected in two years.
0,27
0,45
0,04
0,180,29
0,37
0,08
0,21
0,58
0,75
0,3
0,460,53
0,74
0,1
0,35
0,51
0,66
-0,03
0,34
Onshore
current year
Onshore
in tow years
Offshore
current year
Offshore
in two years
Ind
ex
How do you assess the market for the wind industry in the rest of the world in the current year and in
two years?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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INTENSITY OF CONSOLIDATION PROCESSES
As in the past years, respondents expect consolidation processes in the onshore segment to
continue at high intensity with a slight weakening trend. In the offshore segment, however, the
intensity of consolidation processes is clearly believed to be declining, returning to a level
similar to 2018.
0,30,360,36 0,34
0,39 0,380,370,43
0,35 0,32
Onshore Offshore
Ind
ex
In your opinion, what intensity will consolidation processes have in 2020/2021 (e.g. due to zero bids,
lower political goals, lack of projects)?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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OPTIMISATION THROUGH DIGITALISATION
Expectations regarding the optimisation potential driven by digitalisation have risen at equal
rates for the onshore and offshore wind energy segments, with offshore continuing to play a
much more significant role for digitalisation than onshore.
0,6 0,620,62 0,620,67
0,8
0,56
0,680,63
0,75
Onshore Offshore
Ind
ex
How do you assess further optimization potentials through digitalization (e.g. automation of wind farms,
sector coupling, smart grids)?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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COST REDUCTION THROUGH NEW
TECHNOLOGIES
The mood regarding the saving potential of new technologies is again in the medium to high
range, with the potential for offshore wind energy continuing to receive much higher ratings
than for onshore.
0,46
0,75
0,38
0,73
0,42
0,86
0,35
0,77
0,39
0,81
Onshore Offshore
Ind
ex
How do you assess further cost efficiency potentials through technology (e.g. bigger turbines, floating)?
Q2/18 Q4/18 Q2/19 Q4/19 Q2/20
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GREEN HYDROGEN
More than half of respondents believe it is likely or very likely that the production of green
hydrogen will play a key role for wind energy over the next three years.
Very low
9,2%
Low
20,9%
Medium
15,5%
High
35,3%
Very high
19,1%
How high do you estimate the probability that the production of green hydrogen will play a major role
for wind energy in the next 3 years?
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11,2%
18,1%
23,3%
29,9%
36,4%
39,2%
45,6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Financing and insurance
Energy supply / grid operation
Installation
Others
Production
Project development
Operation and maintenance
On which level of the value chain is your company’s activity
in the wind energy industry? (Multiple answers possible)
14,7%
15,0%
24,8%
33,9%
38,5%
48,3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Substations
Foundations / transition pieces (TPs)
Towers
Blades
Turbines
Others
Breakdown of answer "Production"
ACTIVITIES WITHIN THE VALUE CHAIN
Nearly half of responding companies engage in operation and maintenance business activities.
Furthermore, around 40% participate in project development; more than one third are manufacturers,
and about one fourth perform installation work. Activities within manufacturing are mostly focused on
making turbines, rotor blades and other components.
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REGIONAL FOCUS
Around 30% of respondents focus on the German or the European market, respectively. About
15% of respondents are also active in the Asian and the North American markets.
67,6% 67,3% 33,7% 33,1% 24,4%
69,1%
85,0%
32,8%34,9%
28,0%
0,0%
25,0%
50,0%
75,0%
100,0%
Deutschland Europa (inkl. D) Nordamerika Asien Rest der Welt
On which countries is your company’s focus? (Multiple answers possible)
Average of prior results
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RESPONDENT POSITIONS
Similar to the previous surveys, more than one third of participants hold managerial positions,
followed by respondents from sales, ‘other’, R&D and design as well as maintenance and
service functions.
0,0%
1,6%
1,7%
2,2%
2,5%
2,9%
3,0%
6,2%
11,2%
16,5%
17,3%
34,7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Marketing, advertising, PR
Information and communication technology
Human resources, administration
Buying, procurement
Logistics, material management, storage, transport
Manufacturing, production, quality control
Finance, accounting, controlling
Maintenance, repairs
Research and development, design
Others
Sales
Management
What is your area of responsibility?
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WETIX – WINDENERGY trend:index
We look forward to seeing you at
WindEnergy Hamburg – The global on & offshore expo
http://www.windenergyhamburg.com
1 – 4 December 2020 | Hamburg
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