Results for the year ended 31 December 1999. OUTLINE Stuart Morris Financial highlights ...
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Transcript of Results for the year ended 31 December 1999. OUTLINE Stuart Morris Financial highlights ...
Results for the year
ended 31 December 1999
OUTLINEOUTLINE
Stuart Morris
Financial highlights
Provisions
Richard Laubscher
Metric dashboard
Divisions
Positioning
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTSFINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Dec-99 Dec-98 ChangeMargin 3.64% 3.70%NIR to total income 44.4% 45.0%Efficiency ratio 51.7% 56.2%Attributable income 2 406 1 900 27%EPS 1 024 822 25%Shareholders' funds 10 066 9 131 10%ROE 25.3% 23.3%Capital ratio 12.0% 10.8%Deposits 118 225 106 900 11%Advances 103 783 96 483 8%Total assets 129 844 117 527 10%ROA 1.95% 1.74%
INCOME STATEMENTINCOME STATEMENT3 yr Rm Dec-99 Dec-98 Growth PF
12% Net interest income 4 359 3 925 11% 12%19% Non-interest revenue 3 486 3 211 9% 14%15% Total Income 7 845 7 136 10% 13%36% Provisions (869) (698) 24% 26%13% Net Income 6 976 6 438 8% 11%
9% Expenses (4 054) (4 008) 1% 4%21% Net Operating Income 2 922 2 430 20% 23%
Capital profits 717CBD properties write-down (225)General provision (492)Net income before taxation 2 922 2 430 20% 23%
7% Taxation (625) (589) 6% 10%26% Net income after taxation 2 297 1 841 25% 27%
Earnings of associates 130 59 120% 80%Income attributable to minorities (21)
28% Attributable income 2 406 1 900 27% 27%
EARNINGS PER SHARE - UP 25%EARNINGS PER SHARE - UP 25%EARNINGS PER SHARE - UP 25%EARNINGS PER SHARE - UP 25%
528
665
822
1024
217
224
231235
0100200300400500600700800900
10001100
96 97 98 99
190195200205210
215220225230235
EPS {lhs} WA No of Shares {rhs}
CAGR 3 Year 25%
PEER GROUPPEER GROUP
25.3%
12.0%
23.3%
10.8%
20.1%
10.5%
19.0%
10.6%
15.5%
10.5%
ROE Capital ratio
Nedcor 99 Nedcor 98 Firstrand Standard ABSA
PEER GROUPPEER GROUP
51.7%
56.2%
61.1% 61.4%
67.2%
Efficiency ratio
Nedcor 99
Nedcor 98
Firstrand
Standard
ABSA
OPERATING COMPANIESOPERATING COMPANIESOPERATING COMPANIESOPERATING COMPANIES
Rm Dec-99 Dec-98 Change % of Group
Nedcor Bank & group ops 1 862 1 447 29% 77%Nedcor Investment Bank * 479 400 20% 20%Cape of Good Hope 65 53 23% 3%TOTAL 2 406 1 900 27% 100%
* NIB reported earnings growth of 25% to R500 million, of which R21 million was attributable to NIB minorities
NET INTEREST MARGINNET INTEREST MARGIN
Dec-99 Dec-98 Change (bp)Pure margin 3.19% 3.20% (1)Interest reserve -0.19% -0.15% (4)Shareholders' funds 1.08% 1.06% 2Fixed assets -0.21% -0.22% 1Investments -0.23% -0.19% (4)Reported margin 3.64% 3.70% (6)
SHAREHOLDERS’SHAREHOLDERS’ FUNDS UP 10%FUNDS UP 10%
31-Dec-98 9 131Net income 2 406Dividends (552)Share capital & premium raised 265Goodwill written off (1 325)Didata International (542)
Edward Nathan & Friedland (400)
Other (383)
NIB minorities & other 14131-Dec-99 10 066
PROVISIONSRm avg advs Rm avg advs
INCOME STATEMENT
Provison charge 869 0.85% 698 0.77% - incl. interest reserve 1 099 1.07% 857 0.94%
BALANCE SHEET
Specific provisions 1 808 1.8% 1 449 1.6%General provisions 1 028 1.0% 419 0.5%
2 836 2.8% 1 868 2.0%Credit insurance 193 0.2% 0.0%TOTAL 3 028 3.0% 1 868 2.0%
Dec-99 Dec-98
Provisions were bolstered, not fed into earnings
NON-PERFORMING LOANSNON-PERFORMING LOANS
Rm of advs Rm of advs
Non-performing loans 3 513 3.3% 2 640 2.7%Expected recoveries (1 703) -1.6% (1 249) -1.3%Expected losses 1 810 1.7% 1 391 1.4%
Adequacy of provisions
Gross coverageNet coverage
Dec-99 Dec 98
86%
Dec-99 Dec-98
71%167% 134%
Metric dashboard
Beacons or markers
Multiple of revenue / earningsMultiple of revenue / earnings
• Marker = ROE– gearing level - financial leverage, financial risk
– benchmarks in low inflation economies
– proportion of NAV in hard currencies
– ROE required to self-service capital
– separate management of shareholders’ funds
– capital allocated to best ROE opportunities
RESULTS OF ROE FOCUSRESULTS OF ROE FOCUS
• Capital ratio grown to 12%– Gearing of 8.5 times is low
– Surplus capital held centrally and allocated to best ROE opportunities
• Exit inadequate ROE businesses– Travel, air-ticket processing, linked products
– Duplicate areas & international businesses
• Positioned to gear capital mix at low rates• Much less need for earnings retention
ROE PROSPECTSROE PROSPECTS
• >R6bn invested in hard currencies– plans to create currency for further acquisitions, for
example listing DDIL
• Capital held in cash during high rates– recent moves with Didata - R3bn invested
– market value surplus of >R3bn not booked
– high earnings growth, hard currency assets
– cellular & internet deals in pipeline
• Shareholders’ funds are working hard
ASSET PRODUCTIVITYASSET PRODUCTIVITY
• Marker = ROA– nearing 2%
– high return relative to low risk
– provisions nearly 3% of advances• Gross coverage 86%, net coverage 167%
• Ahead of indicated standardised provision regulations
– strong provisions enable improvements to flow through to bottom line
RETAIL DIVISIONRETAIL DIVISION
• Capital One JV for underserved through Peoples Bank– pilots show high upside– information based strategy - data analysis– empowerment deal under negotiation
• Right client, brand affinity & attitudinal pull– Nedbank & Permanent Bank– positioned to follow suburban drift
• Nedbank Private Bank– merged Nedbank, Syfrets & UAL, leading player
• New card system– big growth in electronic base
COMMERCIALCOMMERCIAL
• ROE per client capability– focused service (six-pack teams) on valued clients
– factored into all credit decisions
– manage client channel choices• 65% of commercial clients have electronic facilities
• 75 000 business clients use telecentre
• specialised service centres (outside branches)
• High ROE/low cost ratio division• Formative relationships, piggy-back growth
CORPORATECORPORATE
• Core credit analysis capability– clean sheet, small share of main failures
• Quality growth– running at 24%, 18-20% prospective
• Term lending = 40% (annuity component)• Rate competition has always been keen• Client profitability MIS capability• New electronic platform • NIB/ENF deal flow
INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONAL
• Do not do– High-street banking
– Investment banking
– Global treasury
– Take risk in unknown countries
• Do– go virtual
– minimise capital intensity
– share skills and risk with partners
– use armour-piercing strategies for barriers to entry
RESULTSRESULTS
• Only major bank gaining market share• Commercial market gains, doubled in 5yrs• High ROA, high asset quality, low risk
– high provisions/low NPLs
– economic upturn goes directly to bottom line
• CBD properties written down
NON-INTEREST REVENUENON-INTEREST REVENUE
• Marker = NIR/Total income– target 45%
– low capital intensity
– choice of channel, ability to analyse activity
– high inflation protection
– high intellectual capital
• Results– cost consequences of channel choice
– insurance sales platform, at least R150m upside
– private equity growing
EXPENSESEXPENSES
• Efficiency ratio (cost/income)– sustainable efficiency without compromising service
via process re-engineering culture
• Other beacons/markers– assets per employee up by 20% in 1999 to R7.5m
– profits per employee up by 37% in 1999 to R139 000
– fixed assets/income now inside 3 months
– transaction volumes, cycle times, error rates, unit costs
Efficiency curveEfficiency curveEfficiency curveEfficiency curve
PROCESSENGINEERING
IT BASED PROCESS
RE-ENGINEERING
VOLUME& SCALE
INTERNATIONALISE
Un
it C
ost
25%
50%
20%
ADD VOLUME 3rd Party/Stanbic Underbanked
PROJECT SYNERGYPROJECT ALPHA
REPLICATEINTERNATIONALLY
75%
EXPENSE FOCUS RESULTSEXPENSE FOCUS RESULTS• Cost ratio now under 52%
– lowest in SA
– international benchmarks within sight
– continuing momentum, eg R400m via projects
– ratio in Retail >60% under attack
• Branch closures & repositioning• Staff productivity way ahead of peers• Share options in lieu of bonuses• 3rd year of zero increase in processing costs• State of the art technology platform
– substantial volume headroom
PLATFORMSPLATFORMS
• Major spend on– new internet engine
– direct telecentre
– cell phone (view phone)
– electronic banking
– network “pipe”
• Client choice, pricing for functionality
PLATFORM RESULTSPLATFORM RESULTS
• 903 4th generation ATMs, top in Saswitch• 337 SSTs, user friendly touch screen• 90 000 business clients contracted at Nedtel
– first with WAP/MMM internet connectivity
• 45 000 internet clients– 770 000 transactions per month
• Lower costs/higher functionality
BUSINESS MODELBUSINESS MODEL
• Smaller units– co-operation, participation, ownership– performance driven, individual and team– invest in performers/exit non-performers
• Values based culture– fairness, development, integrity, performance– people management rewarded
• Concentration on– virtual form & ensuring convergence play– intellectual capacity– partnerships (share knowledge & risk)
• Didata , Capital One , Dresdner & BNP , HSBC , Old Mutual , State Street, American Express
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
• Less risk• More capital appreciation• Higher returns• Inch by inch sustainable performance
improvements• Pick-ups in GDP, volume & efficiency go
straight to the bottom line