RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med...

35
RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE 11th August 2016

Transcript of RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med...

Page 1: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYSTTELECONFERENCE11th August 2016

Page 2: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

02 Operation

03Financials

01Market

Page 3: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

2016 Second Quarter Market Conditions

Deteriorating Refining Market

WTI / Brent Spread

1 $/v

Ural & Other Crude

Spreads

Widened

High Global Capacity

Utilisation

Fluctuation in currency

& prices

WeakenedDemand

due to LowIndustrialUsage &

WarmWeather

Additional Chinese

production from

Teapot Refineries

ExcessCrude Supply

Normalised

Low price Environment

Excess Product SupplyPoor Crack Margins

Growing Turkish Petroleum Market

3

Bearish Refining Environment

Page 4: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

5 Months 2016 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)

7,69 8,44

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

2015 2016

Diesel

0,52 0,57

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

2015 2016

Jet Fuel*

0,78 0,84

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

2015 2016

Gasoline

0,29 0,30

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

2015 2016

Fuel Oil*

Source: EMRA

*bunker excluded.

4

+7.1%

+9.8% +9.9%

+4.1%

Page 5: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Crude Price Differentials, $/Barrel

-4,0

-3,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

-4,0

-3,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2009-2012 Min/Max 2014 2013 2015 2016

-12,0

-10,0

-8,0

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

Price Differentials Trends

Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy Siberian Light CPC

Ural Crude Differentials $/Barrel

5

Page 6: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Quarterly Product Crack Margins, $/bbl

9,5

14,116,5

6,8

13,612,1 9,7

4,5

8,0

13,0

15,1

10,1

13,0

19,4 18,9

13,815,2 14,5

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Gasoline

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

16,7

18,0 20,918,9

17,0

15,8 16,416,4

15,313,6

16,1 16,315,7 15,2 14,6

10,7

7,99,2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Diesel

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

13,415,7

18,3 17,016,013,0

13,214,7

12,611,2

15,015,8

14,4

11,3 10,79,5

7,3 7,8

02468

101214161820

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Jet Fuel

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-14,4-11,8 -14,3

-20,2-18,8 -13,9 -18,9

-20,4-20,1-20,9

-15,7

-15,0

-11,6-12,1

-13,2

-15,7-13,2

-15,1

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Fuel Oil2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6

Page 7: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 2Q

Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was - 575,2 million TL

2nd Quarter

Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl

2016 2015Product Yield %

2016 2015

LPG 293,63 388,50 3,6% -19,42 -27,33

Gasoline 486,65 660,19 20,1% 14,40 19,42

Naptha 379,49 506,55 1,1% -2,73 -4,74

Jet Fuel 419,55 575,55 17,5% 7,80 11,28

Diesel 408,16 574,27 32,5% 9,27 15,23

Diesel 1000 399,00 561,47 0,7% 8,04 13,51

Fuel Oil 1% 213,86 335,09 0,2% -12,58 -10,25

Fuel Oil 3,5% 198,42 323,04 18,8% -14,96 -12,10

Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,76 7,59

Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 61,9 45,6 94,5%

Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,8

Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 51,94

Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ -198,8

Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL -575,2

7

FOB Italy Prices

Page 8: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in 1H

Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL

2nd Quarter

Product Price, $/ton Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl

2016 2015Product Yield %

2016 2015

LPG 289,75 386,58 3,6% -13,93 -23,53

Gasoline 441,58 602,31 20,1% 14,68 16,27

Naptha 339,58 470,78 1,1% -1,39 -4,80

Jet Fuel 371,69 556,16 17,5% 7,55 12,79

Diesel 359,51 546,14 32,5% 8,57 15,42

Diesel 1000 349,65 530,40 0,7% 7,25 13,31

Fuel Oil 1% 179,40 313,01 0,2% -12,06 -9,68

Fuel Oil 3,5% 166,24 298,88 18,8% -14,09 -11,85

Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 3,92 7,46

Dated Brent Avg. $/bbl 39,7 57,9 94,5%

Margin Differences, $/bbl -3,5

Total Raw Materials Charged, mn barrel 102,88

Total Effect of Product Prices, mn $ -364,5

Total Effect of Product Prices, mn TL -1.063,6

8

FOB Italy Prices

Page 9: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Inventory Effect* Analysis

*FX effect Included, hedging excluded

9

2015 2016

$ million Crude Product Total Crude Product Total

1st Quarter -35,1 -35,1 -70,2 -9,0 -13,4 -22,4

Apr 9,1 25,3 34,4 7,2 16,6 23,8

May 16,8 12,0 28,8 26,3 43,3 69,6

Jun 2,2 1,7 3,9 13,4 10,2 23,6

2nd Quarter 28,1 38,9 67,1 46,9 70,1 117,0

6 Months -7,0 3,9 -3,1 37,9 56,7 94,6

Page 10: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Med & Tüpraş Net Margins, $/bbl

6,1

3

2,6

2

4,8

9 4,3

4 3,6

5 2,6

3

-0,2

8

7,4

8

5,2

1

6,2

8

1,4

0

3,5

5

1,6

5

5,7

3

2,5

2

0,0

6

4,8

8

3,2

0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2nd Quarter

Tüpraş Net Med Complex

4,0

5

2,2

2

3,4

2

4,1

2

2,8

5 1,8

8 1,0

5

6,2

3

4,0

3

4,9

9

2,4

2

3,5

3

1,0

4

4,3

5

2,6

8

0,2

5

5,4

3

3,5

2

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

6 Month

Tüpraş Net Med Complex10

1,5

7

1,7

2

1,3

7

3,8

7

1,9

6 0,9

0

2,4

1

4,6

9

2,8

1

3,7

0

3,4

4

3,5

0

0,4

2

2,9

7

2,8

3

0,4

4

5,9

8

3,8

4

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1st Quarter

Tüpraş Net Med Complex

$ / bblGross

Margin

Inventory

Effect

Clean

Gross

Margin

Clean

NET

Margin

Med

Margin

2015 Q2 12,63 0,53 12,10 6,95 4,88

2016 Q2 10,58 0,90* 9,67 4,31 3,20

* Hedge Operations not included

Page 11: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Market Operations Financials

11

Page 12: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Capacity Utilisation (%)9

1,1

86

,1

60

,4

69

,6 74

,4 78

,7

76

,8

71

,3

98

,1

90

,1 95

,6

8,7

7,55,5

2,92,4

3,6

4,4

4,0

5,2

69,2

77,181,6

79,174,9

102,5

94,1

100,9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015/ 1H

2016/ 1H

Crude Oil Other

Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)

4,554,63 5,41

5,515,60

6,93

7,32 7,42

6,596,75

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Min / Max 2007/2014 2014 2015 2016

Production

12

+6,8%

Page 13: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Product Yields

17% 20% 19% 17% 18% 19% 21%18% 16%

19%

27%27% 27%

26%28% 27%

31%35%

30%

32%

43%47% 46%

43%46% 46%

53% 52%

45%

51%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Middle Distillate

Jet Diesel

21% 21%22% 23% 22%

20% 20% 21% 22% 21%

22% 21%22%

23% 23%

21% 21% 22%22% 23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Light Distillate

Gasoline Naphtha

19% 17%14%

20% 18% 17%

5%7%

15%

5%

9%9%

12%

8%7% 10%

13%11%

9%

13%

1%

3% 3%

1%

3%

28%26% 26%

29%

26%27%

21% 21%

26%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Black Product

Fuel Oil Asphalt Coke

32,532,9

31,8 31,9

33,1

32,2

30,3 30,3

31,130,8

27,5

28,5

29,5

30,5

31,5

32,5

33,5

34,5

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

Crude Oil API

2014 2015 2016

13

Page 14: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Tüpraş Sales, Thousand tons

3.5

80

3.9

17

5.0

68

4.1

02

5.3

74

6.4

03

4.9

11

6.7

56

4.2

67

6.1

99

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

1.1

28

1.7

26

1.8

07

92

5

1.9

25

1.2

52

1.4

59

1.1

79

1.8

22

1.6

63

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

4.7

08

5.6

43

6.8

75 5

.02

7

7.2

98

7.6

55 6.3

70

7.9

35 6

.08

9

7.8

62

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

14

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ExportDomestic Sales

Total Sales

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Page 15: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Domestic Sales, million tons

0,3

9

0,4

3

0,4

5

0,4

6

0,5

2

0,5

5

0,5

4

0,6

0

0,4

4

0,5

0

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

Gasoline

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

0,7

6

0,8

6

1,0

0

0,9

8

1,2

6

1,2

3

1,1

8

1,5

0

0,9

1

1,1

3

0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,6

Jet Fuel

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

1,4

8

1,7

3

2,2

7

1,6

6

2,2

3

2,7

5

1,8

3

2,6

2

1,7

3

2,5

9

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

2,4

2,8

Diesel

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

0,2

3

0,2

7

0,4

3

0,4

2

0,6

3

0,9

1 0,7

9

1,0

8

0,5

1

0,9

0

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2Asphalt

Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q2-14 Q2-15

Q2-16 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q4-14 Q4-15

15

Page 16: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Opet

798 830 885 915 938 966 1009 1044

526 394 394 410 418 427 435 343

1.3241.224 1.279 1.325 1.356 1.393 1.444 1.387

0

300

600

900

1.200

1.500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016July

Station Numbers

Opet Sunpet

– In June, White Product market share is 17,6 percent.

– Total market share, including white and black products is 17,06 percent.

16

Page 17: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Market Operations Financials

17

Page 18: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Income Statement

18

Q2 Q2% Diff. Million USD 6 M 2015 6 M 2016 % Diff.

2015 2016

4.024,3 2.914,7 -28 Net Sales 6.853,6 5.016,0 -27

431,2 221,3 -49 Gross Profit 634,3 387,9 -39

-72,0 -78,9 10 Operating Expenses -142,0 -155,8 10

-21,3 27,3 -228 Income/Loss from other operations -112,1 30,6 -127

337,9 169,7 -50 Operating Profit 380,2 262,6 -31

12,9 18,5 43 Income/Loss from equity investment 3,7 23,5 527

350,9 188,2 -46Operating Profit Before Fin.

Income/Loss383,9 286,1 -25

12,2 -16,6 -235 Financial Income 192,9 45,1 -77

-85,5 -34,8 -59 Finance Expenses -311,2 -161,8 -48

277,6 136,8 -51 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 265,7 169,4 -36

272,7 113,5 -58 Net Profit 384,8 140,2 -64

380,6 216,6 -43 EBITDA (mn.$) 452,7 355,1 -22313,6 99,5 -68 EBITDA (mn.$)- CCS 455,9 260,5 -43

Page 19: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Tüpraş Balance Sheet

19

Million USD 30.06.2016 31.12.2015 Difference % Difference

Current Assets 3.598 2.984 615 21

Cash & C. Equivalents 1.590 1.041 549 53

Receivables 915 882 32 4

Derivatives 7 6 0 2

Inventories 892 723 169 23

Pre-paid expenses 50 45 5 11

Other Current Assets 144 285 -141 -49

Long Term Assets 5.829 5.776 53 1

Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 274 264 10 4

Fixed Assets 3.984 3.950 34 1

Derivatives 69 86

Pre-paid expenses 79 62 18 29

Deferred Tax 1.071 1.101 -30 -3

Other Long Term Assets 352 314 38 12

Total Assets 9.427 8.760 668 8

Short Term Liabilities 4.035 3.036 998 33

Financial Loans 1.202 644 559 87

Payables 1.689 1.363 327 24

Derivatives 73 14 60 429

Deferred Incomes 2 8 -6 -72

Provisions 37 24 12 51

Other ST Liabilities 1.030 984 46 5

Long Term Liabilities 2.868 2.845 23 1

Financial Loans 2.778 2.768 10 0

Payables & Provisions 70 67 3 4

Derivatives 19 9 10 103

Other LT Liabilities 1 1 0 1

Equity 2.500 2.856 -357 -12

Minority Interests 25 22 3 14

Total Liabilities 9.427 8.760 668 8

Page 20: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Financial Highlights (mn $)

134262

95 79150 150 114

256

328

15378

-27

415237

271

468

361315

226

410169

272

106

89

-11

422

830

1.329

715

560

338

1.397

351

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

2010 2011 2012R 2013 2014 2015 2016

67194 161

72231

112 27

145

16575

75

171273

113

230

206309 435

175 26847

174 27147 91

285

490

740817

629 667

938

140

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

9001000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-1.9

55

57

8

55

1

1.3

40 1.9

94

1.8

69

1.5

98

1.6

63 2

.45

2

2.5

77

2.7

48

2.3

70

2.2

58

2.3

91

-3.000

-2.000

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

0,2

2 0,2

50

,34

0,1

10

,22

0,1

90

,30

0,3

20

,24

0,1

00

,40

0,3

30

,30

0,2

60

,18

0,3

0 0,3

50

,35

0,0

40

,11

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

13 Q

1

20

14 Q

1

20

14 1

H

20

14 9

M

20

14

20

15 Q

1

20

15 Q

2

20

15 9

M

20

15

20

16 Q

1

20

16 1

H

EBITDA Net Income

Net Debt Return on Average Equity

20

Page 21: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Balance Sheet Analysis

1,41

2,16

1,721,69

1,30

1,641,68

1,211,04

0,821,04

1,641,59

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)

1,451,33

0,930,71

0,520,51

0,090,20

0,66

1,070,88

0,700,91

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

Receivables (Billion $)

2,3 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8

0,81,0 0,5

0,9 0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6

1,0 1,23,1

3,43,1

3,73,2 3,2 3,3

3,7 3,6 3,6 3,43,9 4,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0Financial Loans (Billion $)

LT Loans ST Loans

2,94

3,463,223,103,28

3,04

2,46

1,741,701,591,361,23

1,69

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

Payables (Billion $)

21

Page 22: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

FX Risk Exposure (30 June 2016)

ConsolidatedAssets

ConsolidatedLiabilities

LT Financials: 2,657

RUP Loans: 1,407

Eurobond: 700

Other credits 550

ST Financials 374

• RUP 306

Payables

1.174

Forward & CFH*

2,509

Stock

842

Receivables & otherassets

42

Cash

900

Million $

+74 million $

*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,568 mn $ 22

Page 23: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Future Expectations

Brent Price Estimation

• The average Brent price in 2016 is expected to be 45-55 dollars per barrel band.

Med Complex Margin

• We expect Med Complex margins to be 3.5 – 4.0 dollars per barrel band in 2016.

Tüpraş Net Margin

• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 4.5 – 5.0 dollars per barrel

Capacity Utilisation

• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2016 will be around 100 %.

• Production will therefore be approximately 28 million tons

• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production

• Total sales volume will be 30.0 million tons

Investment

• Total investments for 2016 will be about 270 Million dollars

23

Page 24: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company

management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is

believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may

be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could

cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person

shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

24

Page 25: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Extras

25

Page 26: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

2nd Quarter Product Yields

White Product 71.83%

Production 6.8 mn ton

API:32.21

White Product 78.20%

Production 6.6 mn ton

API:30.83

Gasoline20,6%

Naphtha1,9%

Jet19,0%

Diesel32,4%

Other1,5%

LPG3,8%

Coke2,7%

Fuel Oil5,4%

Bitumen12,6%

Light Distil.22,5%

Mid. Distil.51,4%

Other5,4%

Black Prod.20,7%

2015 2016

26

Gasoline19,5%

Naphtha1,4%

Jet19,0%

Diesel27,1%

Other2,3%

LPG3,2%

Coke0,6%

Fuel Oil16,9%

Bitumen10,0%

Light Distil.20,9%

Mid. Distil.46,1%

Other5,5%

Black Prod.27,4%

Page 27: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

1 H Product Yields

White Product 72.7%

Production 12.3 mn ton

API:32.63

White Product 75.59%

Production 13.1 mn ton

API:30.98

Gasoline21,1%

Naphtha1,4%

Jet17,2%

Diesel31,2%

Other2,1%

LPG3,6%

Coke2,1%

Fuel Oil10,3%

Bitumen11,0%

Light Distil.22,5%

Mid. Distil.48,4%

Other5,7%

Black Prod.23,4%

2015 2016

27

Gasoline20,6%

Naphtha1,2%

Jet18,5%

Diesel27,5%

Other2,4%

LPG3,2%

Coke0,3%

Fuel Oil17,5%

Bitumen8,8%

Light Distil.21,8%

Mid. Distil.45,9%

Other5,7%

Black Prod.26,6%

Page 28: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Production (million tons)

0,7 0,9 1,0 0,9 1,0 1,3 1,6 1,3 1,0 1,3

1,2 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,61,8

2,3 2,5

2,02,11,9 2,2

2,5 2,3 2,53,1

3,8 3,8

3,03,4

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Middle Distillate

Jet Diesel

0,9 1,01,2 1,3 1,2 1,3 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,4

1,0 1,01,2 1,3 1,3

1,41,6 1,6

1,5 1,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Light Distillate

Gasoline Naphtha

0,8 0,8 0,81,1 1,0 1,1

0,3 0,5

1,0

0,4

0,4 0,40,6

0,50,4

0,7

0,90,8

0,6

0,8

1,3 1,21,4

1,61,4

1,9

1,5 1,61,7

1,4

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

14 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 16 Q1 16 Q2

Black Product

Fuel Oil Bitumen Coke

32

,5

32

,9

31

,8

31

,9

33

,1 32

,2

30

,3

30

,3

31

,1

30

,8

27,5

28,5

29,5

30,5

31,5

32,5

33,5

34,5

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4

Crude Oil API

2014 2015 2016

28

Page 29: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Domestic Sales4

52

137

943

2.1

45

53

3.9

11

58

1 89

5

17

0

5

54

8

14

0

99

5

2.2

44

39

4.9

76

67

4

1.3

35

21

4

30

7

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2015 H1

2016 H1

Export Volumes

1.597

158

1.851

45

1.731

157

1.155

150

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

Gasoline MiddleDist.

Fuel Oil Other

2015 H1

2016 H1

1H Sales (Thousand Tons)

29

2015/H1 : 9.3 mn tons

2016/H1: 11.5 mn tons

2015/H1: 3.7 mn tons

2016/H1: 3.1 mn tons

Page 30: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Profitability Indicators , 2015-2016 6 Month & 2Q-2015-2016

* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas CMB calculation method includes these in operationg

profit

30

2nd Q(%)

6M(%)

2015 2016 2015 2016

61,92 45,57 -26 Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 57,95 39,73 -31,4432,21 30,83 -4,3 Processed Crude API 32,63 30,98 -5,0671,83 78,20 6,4 White Product Yield, (%) 72,70 75,59 2,89

4,88 3,20 -34,4 Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5,43 3,52 -35,27,48 5,21 -30,3 Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 6,23 4,03 -35,3

337,95 169,7 -50 Operating Profit, (mn. $) 380,2 262,6 -31

372,9 189,9 -49 Operating Profit for EBITDA, (mn. $) 492,6 258,1 -48

380,6 216,6 -43 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 452,7 355,1 -22313,6 99,5 -68 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 455,9 260,5 -43415,6 236,8 -43 EBITDA *(mn. $) 565,1 350,6 -38348,5 119,7 -66 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 568,2 256,0 -55

Page 31: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Fluctuation in Oil Price & Exchange Rate for H1 2016

36,5

26,0

38,7

48,4

2,95

3,06

2,83

2,80

2,99

2,89

2,77

2,82

2,87

2,92

2,97

3,02

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

Brent Crude Price

TL/Dollar

31

Page 32: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

1H Trading Activities

0

454 465

44

279

610

160

588

0

978

203

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

Product Imports, Ton*000

2015 H1

2016 H1 311

0

406

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

HVGO + LCGO ASR F.Oil

Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

2015 H1

2016 H1

Finished Products

Because of low desulfurisation

margin in High Sulfur Diesel imports,

ULSD imports were increased in

paralel to the sales volume rise.

Intermediates

HVGO + LCGO imports increased

for the conversion units.

32

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Monthly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/Crude $/bbl)

2016-BBL/BBL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Avg.

LPG 0,93 0,74 0,62 0,61 0,57 0,55 0,67

Naptha 1,08 0,95 0,98 0,97 0,92 0,93 0,97

Gasoline 1,61 1,36 1,38 1,39 1,31 1,27 1,38

Jet Fuel 1,22 1,23 1,20 1,16 1,16 1,19 1,19

Diesel 10ppm 1,24 1,24 1,22 1,18 1,21 1,22 1,22

Diesel 1000ppm 1,19 1,21 1,17 1,14 1,18 1,20 1,18

Fuel Oil %3,5 0,59 0,64 0,60 0,63 0,68 0,71 0,64

2015-BBL/BBL Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Avg.

LPG 0,68 0,51 0,72 0,62 0,56 0,50 0,60

Naptha 0,85 0,92 0,95 0,93 0,92 0,92 0,92

Gasoline 1,20 1,21 1,31 1,28 1,28 1,38 1,28

Jet Fuel 1,32 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,18 1,19 1,22

Diesel 10ppm 1,31 1,29 1,28 1,24 1,25 1,24 1,27

Diesel 1000ppm 1,26 1,24 1,22 1,19 1,24 1,22 1,23

Fuel Oil %3,5 0,77 0,78 0,80 0,81 0,80 0,81 0,79

33

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Quarterly Price Ratios (product $/bbl/Crude $/bbl)

1,081,13 1,15

1,061,12 1,12 1,09 1,04

1,07

1,121,15 1,13

1,24

1,31

1,38

1,32

1,45

1,32

1,001,051,101,151,201,251,301,351,401,451,50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Gasoline

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1,141,17

1,19 1,171,15 1,15 1,15 1,15

1,141,12

1,16

1,21

1,29

1,25

1,29

1,251,231,20

1,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Diesel

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1,111,15 1,17 1,151,14 1,13 1,12 1,13

1,121,10

1,15

1,21

1,27

1,18

1,21 1,221,22

1,17

1,00

1,05

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Jet Fuel

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0,88 0,89 0,87 0,820,83 0,860,83

0,81

0,81 0,810,85

0,800,78

0,800,74

0,640,610,67

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Fuel Oil

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

34

Page 35: RESULTS FOR 2Q 2016 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in1H Impact of Med FOB Prices on Tüpraş Operations was –1.063,6 million TL 2nd Quarter Product Price,

Thank You