Restructuring of operational processes at KNMI 2007 update Kees Lemcke EGOWS 2007.

Restructuring of operational processes at KNMI

2007 update

Kees LemckeEGOWS 2007

Content

• Part IReorganization of KNMI

• Part IIRestructuring of operational processes

• Part IIIPlanned Visualization experiments

Reorganization KNMI

• From 4 to 3 departments:

– Weather– Climate & Seismology– Infrastructure

• 50 employees of 57+ early retired

• No forced dismissals• Less management functions• All employees had to sign in for new job

Content

Part I: Reorganization

4 -> 3 departments

core values

my place

more budget cuts

Part II: Restructuring

Part III: Experiments

Reorganization KNMI

• New “core values” :

– Professional– Entreprising– Reliable– Co-operative

• November 8th 2006

Content


4 -> 3 departments

core values

my place

more budget cuts



Reorganization KNMI

• For me this means:

– same job : project leader

– new group : Product & Process Innovation

– new name : department Weather

Content


4 -> 3 departments

core values

my place

more budget cuts



Reorganization KNMI

• Feb 2007: New Government

in total 10% budget cuts in 2011

DO MOREWITH LESS MONEY & LESS PEOPLE will be continued

Content


4 -> 3 departments

core values

my place

more budget cuts



Restructuring of operational processes

• Conditions Meteorological Production Process:

– Routine production as much as possible automated

– Better use of existing products

– Forecasters job: • less routine production• more advisory function• weather dependent deployment

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

5 Points Program

• Restructuring started with 5 projects:

The “5 Points Program” (5PP):

– Model Switch– Nowcasting– Monitoring & Alerting tools– Product generation– Replacement Meteorological WorkStation (MWS)

• 1) New MWS• 2) New Interface to existing web-products


Original plan : Model Switch

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch 1234 Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Model A

post

processing

products

Model B

Model ..

Model ..

Model Z

Current ‘Model Switch’ work:Statistical Weighting Models

• Framework for the optimal combination of available deterministic forecasts

• These forecasts may come

– from a single model at different lead times

– from single model ensemble forecasts

– from multi-model ensemble forecasts

– from any collection of model forecasts.

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch 12ab34 Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• Purpose of combining available forecasts:

– providing a calibrated model spread as a measure of predictability

– data reduction through a statistical interpretation

– derive calibrated reliable probabilistic forecasts

– derive a single best deterministic field forecast

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch 123abcd4 Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


– Experiments are encouraging

– End 2007 : pilot product available for forecasters

– 2009 : range of products available

Results: next EGOWS

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch 1234 Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evalauation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Choosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Nowcasting tools

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar 1234 MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

• 1) Development new RADAR-display

Current Webbased SVG Display:

Nowcasting tools

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar 12abc34 MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

• 1) Development new RADAR-display

– New requirements (e.g. detailed background) too complex to implement

– Adding road temperature, more lightning facilities, precipitation type, cumulative precip, higher resolution images etc.

• The new application is under construction, finished this year.

• Results: next EGOWS

• In the mean time: Google Earth presentation as extra.

Nowcasting tools

• 2) Intensify the use of MSG satellite data & derived products,

more Cinesat display systems.

• 3) EumetrainDevelopment Conceptual models,development training modules

• 4) Operational use of downscaling products.


Nowcasting tools

• 2) Intensify the use of MSG satellite data & derived products,

more Cinesat display systems.

• 3) EumetrainDevelopment Conceptual models,development training modules

• 4) Operational use of downscaling products.

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling 12 Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Nowcasting tools

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling 12 Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Wind at Amsterdam Airport

Monitoring & Alerting tools

• Monitoring Production:– Automatic Check:

are products available on time?Current status project: waiting for manpower.

• Monitoring Meteo:– Applications fire triggers for pre-defined

events to DASHBOARD– model based triggers– observation based triggers

See next presentation and demo


Monitoring & Alerting tools

• Monitoring Results:

– Verification• Long but interrupted history of verification• Independent performed by several

departments• No uniform presentation of results

• Data available through 1 portal on Intranet

• 4 target groups:– Forecasters– External users– Internal management– External management (Government)

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification 1ab Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Product Generation

• KNMI has no commercial activities

• All products are for govermental users and Internet

• What we are allowed to distribute is arranged by law

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current 12 IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Product Generation

• Currently several dedicated applications

– Home made– External company, disappeared– Different application for

aviation, shipping and general

• Development of 1 new application• Automated production as much as possible

• Pilot with commercial application:

– IBM Workplace Forms• Web based, online and offline• Uses standards as XML and Xforms

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current 12 IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Product Generation








Product Generation







Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms 12 Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Product Generation

• 3-week pilot current running, ends this week

– 2 products:• TAF-editor• General weather bulletin

– Targets:• How much non-standard work has to be

done to fulfill the specs• Estimate amount of work for each product• Impact on work forecasters• Consequences for input• Consequences for output• Possibilities timeseries presentation &

adaptation

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms 12 Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Choosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Product Generation

• 3-week pilot current running, ends this week

– 2 products:• TAF• General weather bulletin

– Targets:• How much non-standard work has to be

done to fulfill the specs• Estimate amount of work for each product• Impact on work forecasters• Consequences for input• Consequences for output• Possibilities timeseries presentation &

adaptation

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms 12 Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Choosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Replacement Meteorological WorkStation (MWS)

• 1) New MWS

• Problems current system:

– Migration of Metlab Classic to Metlab-SmartWindows not smoothly and expensive

– Adaptions expensive

– Vendor is very small company = potential risk



• KNMI started with evaluation of NinJo 0.8 and continued with versions up to 1.2 in January 2007 with live data

• Evaluation of DIANA with canned data in 2006

• Summer 2006:KNMI and Military Meteorological Service agreed to work together as much as possible.



• The Military service has its own MWS: Metis2000 and also plans for replacement.

Order to write specifications together for Invitation To Tender (ITT).

Specs delivered tosteering group KNMI/Military Service:March 2007

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications 12 DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• Steering group decided to investigate the state of the art possibilities for a “Web based MWS”.

• This research is done by the Military service, next meeting steering group: this week.

Currently unknown how we will proceed.

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications 12 DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• Evaluation NinJo & DIANA

– First of all:

• Great Job done by both developer teams!!

Congratulations NinJo teamCongratulations DIANA team

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo 12 DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• Evaluation NinJo & DIANA

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo 12 DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links

Possibilities

DIANA NinJo

Current MWS/

METIS2000


• Evaluation DIANA

– Both KNMI and Military Service requireat least same possibilities for new MWS as the current systems have.

for the time being no further evaluation of DIANA.



• Evaluation NinJo

– Separate NinJo server & client

– Actual obs,sats,radar,models

– Training course in Germany:• Heleen ter Pelkwijk : forecasters training• Ernst de Vreede: configuration training

– Commercial technical assistance by Swiss/German company EBP

– Early 2007: evaluation by 4 forecasters

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo abc Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• Evaluation NinJo

Conclusions

– Meteorology• Large amount of functionality• Requires substantial amount of time to

learn to use the all possibilities

– Configuration• Complex system• Difficult if you are not part of the

developers team.

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo ab 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution Example db structure Direct links


• 2) New Interface to existing Web based products

• Current situation:

– Some operational and a large amount of experimental products

– Available on 13 separated internal webservers– Menu/links on 1 non-operational webserver



• First ideas

– 1 site for OPERational products– 1 site for EXPERimental products

– Both same style menu but mutually exclusive

– Maintenance by manual creating directories and menus.



• Chosen solution

– MySQL database with all the info for the:

• hiarchial structure of the site• Creation of the pulldown menu• Creation of the XML-files for the local

menus• Product state OPER/EXPER• Unique number for each product• Help (meteo & technical) information per

product• Links to local and external servers• List with forecast periods per model

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evalauation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution 12 Example db structure Direct links


– Off-line generation of site, copy to webserver.

– Commercial package for pulldown menu– Use of Simple AJAX Toolkit (SAJAX) to improve

response– Some special tricks to store & retrieve session

history

Rich Intranet Application

Part II: RestructuringConditions5 Point Program Model switch Nowcasting tools Radar MSG2 Eumetrain Downscaling Monitoring & Alerting Process Meteo Verification Product Generation Current IBM Workplace Forms Replacement MWS 1 New MWS Problems Start evaluation KNMI & Military service Specifications DIANA & NinJo DIANA NinJo Conclusions NinJo 2 New Interface web Current First ideas Chosen solution 12 Example db structure Direct links

Restructuring of operational processes at KNMI 2007 update Kees Lemcke EGOWS 2007.

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Transcript of Restructuring of operational processes at KNMI 2007 update Kees Lemcke EGOWS 2007.