Responding to Climate Change in Moldova’s Agricultural...
Transcript of Responding to Climate Change in Moldova’s Agricultural...
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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
Responding to Climate Change in
Moldova’s Agricultural Sector:
Impact Assessment
on CropsAna Iglesias
April 2011
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED
18 sites
12 scenarios
10 years / scenario
6 crops
4 variables / crop
8 management strategies
35 people
1 country, Moldova
2
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Acknowledgements: 4 stakeholder groups + Institutions
1 Research field cropsBoris Boincean, FC Inst “Selectia”
Anatol Meleca, I Phyto“Porumbeni”
Sandu Tatiana, Nat C Plant Varieties
Vladimir Rosca, Nat C Plant
Varieties
Vladimir Todiras, Inst PP & Org Farm
2 Research horticulture
and viticultureGrigore Marian, Moldovan Agr Univ
Maria Pintea, Inst of Horticulture
Tudor Cazac, Inst of Wine and Vine
Victor Bucarciuc, Inst Horticulure
3 Policy Ion Sula, M. Agr &Food
Leonid Volosciuc, Inst Plant
Protection and Organic Farming
Silvia Mistret, Inst Phy “Porumbeni”
Tamara Roznerita, M Agr &Food
Veronica Matenco, M Agr &Food
4 Technical aspects Dorian Pasat, FC Inst “Selectia”
Elena Zbank, , FC Inst “Selectia”
Ivan Sicora, , FC Inst “Selectia”
Marin Cebotari, , FC Inst “Selectia”
Sergiu Gavrilas, , FC Inst “Selectia”
Vadim Cuzeac, , FC Inst “Selectia”
5
M. Agr & Food, Hydromet
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Summary
OverallSome aspects of climate
change such as longer growing
seasons and warmer
temperatures may bring
benefits, …..
…..but there will also be a
range of adverse impacts,
including reduced water
availability, more variability
and more drought
Potentially strong
distributional effects
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Possible
effect
Confidence
level
Optimal location of
crops (zones)change high
Crop productivity change high
Irrigation
requirementsincrease high
Damage by
extremesincrease medium
Env and soil
degradation, pest &
diseases damage
increase medium
Summary
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Summary
9
NorthIncreased potential for
spring wheat and maize
for fodder
Potential pasture
decrease due to reduced
precipitation in summer
Marginal areas may
become very vulnerable
due to lack of adaptive
capacity0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Brisceni
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Soroca
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Camenca
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Ribnita
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Balti
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Falesti
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Summary
CentralPotential increase of crop
suitability for all field
crops, given adequate
water supply
Decrease productivity in
some high quality crops
Need for supplemental
irrigation for all crops
irrigation
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Bravicea
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Cornesti
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Dubasari
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Codrii
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Baltata
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Chisinau
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Summary
SouthIncreased risk of drought
Potential increase of crop
productivity for all field
crops, vegetables and
grapes, given adequate
water supply
Decrease productivity in
some high quality crops
Need for supplemental
irrigation for all crops
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Tirastopol
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Leova
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Stefan Voda
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Comrat
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Ceadir-Lunga
0
25
50
75
100
125
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910
11
12
mmC Cahul
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The choice of crops
Wheat most widespread
Maize silage, grain, 3rd area
Alfalfa & pasture livestock
feed (important sector)
Grapes high value
Apples the most important
fruit product
Walnuts important for
mitigation
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atmosphere
soil
crop
management
crop models
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Limitations, uncertainty, complexity
16
uncert
ain
ty
complexity
model theory
(architecture)
model
parameter
(calibration)
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450
550
650
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Bricen
i
Soro
ca
Cam
enca
Rib
nita
Balti
Falesti
Bravicea
Co
rnesti
Du
basari
Co
drii
Baltata
Ch
isinau
Tiraspo
l
Leova
Stefan V
od
a
Co
mrat
Cead
ir-Lun
ga
Cah
ul
Monthly Total Precip (mm)Avg Mean Temp (C)Avg Max Temp (C)Avg Min Temp (C)Avg Solar Duration (h)
Tem
per
atu
re (C
)So
lar
du
rati
on
(h)
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(mm
)
Northern Central Southern
Current climate
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Changes in growing season precipitation
18
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
BASE
SC01
SC02
SC03
SC04
SC05
SC06
SC07
SC08
SC09
SC10
SC11
SC12
Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)mm
ScenariosScenarios
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
BASE
SC01
SC02
SC03
SC04
SC05
SC06
SC07
SC08
SC09
SC10
SC11
SC12
Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)mm
ScenariosScenarios
maize
wheat
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Variability of maize yield: high impact 2040s scenario
0 - 25 Perc.
25 - 75 Perc.
75-100 Perc.
50th Perc.
Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha)
Treatment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Mat yie
ld k
g/h
a
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 - 25 Perc.
25 - 75 Perc.
75-100 Perc.
50th Perc.
Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha)
Treatment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Mat yie
ld k
g/h
a8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
rainfed
irrigated
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Changes in rainfed crop productivity
20
maize
wheat
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
BASE
SC01
SC02
SC03
SC04
SC05
SC06
SC07
SC08
SC09
SC10
SC11
SC12
Dryland: Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)kg/ha
ScenariosScenarios
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
BASE
SC01
SC02
SC03
SC04
SC05
SC06
SC07
SC08
SC09
SC10
SC11
SC12
Dryland: Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)kg/ha
ScenariosScenarios
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Yield changes (summary, medium scenario)
In all zones,
the crops in the Reut
basin are
more at risk (up to -30%)
Irrigated/ Rainfed
Crop Northern Central Southern
Irrigated
Maize -8% -6% -9%
Wheat -14% -30% -34%
Alfalfa -7% -13% -18%
Grapes -4% -3% -5%
Apples 0% 0% -3%
Vegetables -5% -9% -13%
Rainfed
Maize -9% -3% -10%
Wheat -36% -38% -45%
Pasture -17% -22% -19%
Alfalfa -13% -18% -12%
Grapes -4% -3% -2%
Apples -2% -4% 3%
Vegetables -9% -13% -9%
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The final impacts depend on:
• Heat stress and drought in
summer
• Floods, water-logging
• Environmental degradation
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• Decline of high quality crops
• Regulations may limit opportunities
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Water demand for irrigation: Balti, 4 crops
24
maize wheat
pasture grapevine
0
100
200
300
400
500
1
s00
s01
s02
s03
s04
s05
s06
s07
s08
s09
s10
s11
s12
maize total irrgi damand(mm/yr)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1
s00
s01
s02
s03
s04
s05
s06
s07
s08
s09
s10
s11
s12
wheat total irrgi damand(mm/yr)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1
s00
s01
s02
s03
s04
s05
s06
s07
s08
s09
s10
s11
s12
pasture total irrgi damand(mm/yr)
0
100
200
300
400
500
1
s00
s01
s02
s03
s04
s05
s06
s07
s08
s09
s10
s11
s12
grapevine total irrgi damand(mm/yr)
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Irrigation water demand projections, total
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
base
low
medium
high
millions of cubic meters
larger demand, earlier in the season
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Can optimal management improve opportunities?
26
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
base
low
medium
high
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
base
low
medium
high
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
base
2010s
2030s
2040s
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
base
2010s
2030s
2040s
irrigatedSouth regionrainfed
management
level 0
management
level 4
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Role of RD
(CAP)
A flexible
framework
Axis 1
Farm modernization
Restoring & prevention
Farm advisory services
Training
Axis 2
Agri-env measures
Payments linked to WFD
Axis 3
Diversification into non-
agricultural activities
Leader
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• Water scarcity and drought
• Conflicts among water users
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The past is not a reliable indicator for the future
Reasons for concern when we think about
climate change and agriculture in Moldova
Consequences are unequal
Solutions: Agricultural technology,
cooperation, improved management, policy
Ahead: Deciding on the solutions that are
appropriate (the how issue)
29
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