Responding to Climate Change - Driving Ohio Forward

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Responding to climate change in

Northeast Ohio

November 2009

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Who we are

• Sustainability center at the Cleveland Museum of Natural History

• Connecting cities and nature

• Climate change planning for Northeast Ohio

• Services tocommunity – website,speakers, projectsponsorship, technicalassistance

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• Event calendar

• Sustainability news and project updates

• Climate change plans and actions

www.gcbl.orgOnline home for sustainability

in Northeast Ohio

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Climate change 101

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What we know

• The Earth is warming and the climate is changing

• Scientific consensus that climate change is caused by unprecedented, human generated emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation

• Melting glaciers and ice caps, acidifying oceans, more extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heat waves), changing growing seasons, rising sea levels, more widespread disease

Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report

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Projected local impacts

• Continued changes in growing seasons

• Lower lake levels due to increased evaporation results from the decrease in lake ice

• More frequent, severe, and longer heat waves

• Disease carrying insects will survive and thrive easier in a warmer climate (ticks and mosquitoes)

• Wetter winters and springs, with more heavy downpours

• Longer periods between rainfalls

Sources: U.S. Global Change Research Program and Union of Concerned Scientists

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GCBL climate change activities

• Regional CO2

emissions inventory

• Detailed transition plans– Energy Generation

– Transportation

– Buildings

• Toolkits for taking action– Individuals

– Schools

– Business

– Communities

Resource link

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CMNH climate change research• Ohio long-term butterfly monitoring project

– CMNH Invertebrate Zoology, ODNR and Ohio

Lepidopterists

• Ohio bird migration tracking project

• Ohio natural areas preservation and monitoring– 4600+ acres

Resource link

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Carbon budgeting

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Qatar

(55.5)Kuwait

(30.7)Texas

(29.5)Ohio

(24.7)U.S.

(19.9)

Metric tons CO2e per person in 2005

Mic

higa

n (1

9.4)

Cal

iforn

ia (1

1.0)

New

Yor

k (1

1.0)

Japa

n (9

.8)

UK (8.

9)EU

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(8.4

)C

hina

(5.

5)B

razi

l (1.

9)In

dia

(1.1

)

Source: CAIT (WRI)

Global perspective

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Average Clevelander

2009 TOTAL

29 MT CO2

Housing12 MT CO2

2030 TOTAL

14.5 MT CO2

(50% reduction)

2050 TOTAL

2.9 MT CO2

(90% reduction)

Transport8 MT CO2 Food

3 MT CO2

Goods3 MT CO2

Services3 MT CO2

Source: Cleveland Carbon Fund

A local perspective

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ExplorerOutback

2030 TARGET

Large home (2,500-4,000 SF)

Medium home

(1,500-2,499 SF)

Apartment(<1,000 SF)

Sydney

Avg. energy use in a...

Roundtrip flight from CLE to...

Hong Kong

London

Los Angeles

New York City

Hummer

Civic

Prius

15,000 miles in a...

Carbon budgeting

Mad meat

eater

Avg. American

VegetarianVegan

2050 TARGET

Resource link

Resource link for flight, home, auto

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, ,

Transportation Transportation

BuildingsBuildings

Electricity

Electricity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005 2050 2050

Mil

lio

n T

on

s C

O2

7-County CO2 emissions

Business as usual (BAU) assumptions: flat population growth rate, no growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), does not include CAFE standards,

.8% y-o-y growth in electricity demand

Business as usual

Energy

generation transitionplan

Transportation transition plan

Buildingstransition plan

90% reduction

CO2 reductions in Northeast Ohio

Baseline

Resource link

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Transportation Sector Transition

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Transportation SectorHow do we accomplish reductions?

-16,142,64690%-8,968,13750%Total CO2 Reductions

896,814

896,814

5,380,882

1,793,627

Tons CO2

Reduced

5%

10%

50%

25%

Potential CO2

Reductions

20502030

896,8145%Align costs of externalities with end users

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3

2

1

1,793,6275%Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources

8,968,13730%Increase efficiency of vehicles

4,484,06810%Reduce number of vehicles and need to travel

Tons CO2

Reduced

Potential CO2

Reductions

Transportation Strategies

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1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products

Buildings Scenario 4.1

2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions

• “Green” suburban home uses more energy on average than non-green urban home

• Significantly less transportation energy required for urban homes on average

3. Educate and

4.1.2 LEED 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.2 Energy Star4.3

4. Efficient Land Use Planning

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• Population 1.4 million and rising

• Grid development pattern

3. Educate and



Developed LandCuyahoga County (1948)

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• Population 1.4 million and declining

• Disconnected development pattern

3. Educate and



Developed LandCuyahoga County (2002)

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Transportation Scenario 1.2

2. Increase Efficiency3. Reduce CO2 in Fu

1.1 Land Use

4. Extern1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel

• NOACA and AMATS MPOs have adopted climate change language in LRTPs

• ODOT 21st Century Priorities Task Force

• Plans are largely done, challenge exists to set, trackand implement meaningful metrics (VMT reduction, CO2 reduction, mode splits)

• Complete Streets policies one “easy” solution to start with

1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4

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1.1 Land Use 1.4


U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled, 1982-2006

Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection

between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation

and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008,

www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_

use.pdf

• VMT rate of growth is slowing, and declined in 2008

• Many regional and state plans use VMT growth rate of 1 to 2% per year in planning vs. a flat or declining VMT

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%

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1.5



1.1 Land Use


• Transit is more efficient mode in most situations

• Won’t work for everyone, but small percentage increases in ridership and trip share have significant impacts on CO2 emissions, congestion

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%1.4 Improve Access, Availability and Efficiency of Public Transit

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1.1 Land Use


• Single Occupancy Vehicle travel is increasing

• Public transit and carpooling % decreasing

• What does 2010, 2020 mode split look like?

• What do we need/want it to be?

1.2 Align Long Range1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift to Bikes, Walking, Transit

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Distance to Work

3%

20%

20%

29%

10%

6%

1%

3%

8%

3%

24%

23%

30%

8%

3%

0%

2%

6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than 1 mile

1 to 4 miles

5 to 9 miles

10 to 19 miles

20 to 29 miles

30 to 49 miles

50 miles or more

Works at home

No f ixed place of w ork

City of Cleveland

Cleveland PMSA


1.1 Land Use



Time to Work

29%

37%

15%

5%

2%

0%

3%

8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Less than 15 minutes

15 to 29 minutes

30 to 44 minutes

45 to 59 minutes

1 hour to 1 hour and 29 minutes

1 hour 30 minutes or more

Works at home

No fixed place of work

• Travel time and distance play key roles in shifting modes

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1.1 Land Use



Cleveland PMSA Principal Means of Transportation to Work

84%

7%

4%

0%

0%

2%

0%

3%

60%

14%

10%

0%

5%

5%

0%

6%

36%

18%

15%

0%

8%

8%

0%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Drives self

Carpool

Mass Transportation

Taxicab

Bicycle or motorcycle

Walks only

Other means

Works at home 205020302004

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1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel


2.1 National Efficiency Standards

2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles 3. Reduce CO2 Inten

2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids

2005 MPG Emissions Factors

Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Avg.

MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2

(1=2000lbs)Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172

Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065

Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972

Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972

Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0

Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606

TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470

UtlizationUnits

2030 MPG Emissions Factors

Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Avg.

MPG

ANNUAL VMT

Total

Gasonline

Consumption

(Gallons)

Gasoline CO2

Emissions Factor

(lbs/CO2 per Gal)

Lbs/CO2

Short Tons

CO2

(1=2000lbs)Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317

Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332

Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 35 7,950,389,735 227,153,992 20.71 4,704,132,029 2,352,066Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752

Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752

Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0

Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 23 13,641,812,645 593,122,289 20.71 12,282,969,481 6,141,485Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606

TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520

34.73%

UtlizationUnits

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What you can do

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What you can do at home

• Calculate your carbon footprint – set priorities

• Change light bulbs

• Drive less

• Reduce, reuse, recycle (and compost)

• Use less water

• Eat lower on the food chain

• Adjust your thermostat

First steps to a low-carbon lifestyle…

Resource link

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What you can do in your community

• Encourage mayor to sign Mayors Climate

Protection Agreement

• Support

– Renewable energy use and energy efficiency

– Walkable neighborhoods

– Transportation choices –transit, bikes

– “First steps” – recycling, composting

Resource link

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Support complete streets

• What do we want the Innerbelt Bridge to look like?

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• Calculate your impact

• Learn how to reduce

• Donate to local projects

http://www.ClevelandCarbonFund.org

Cleveland Carbon Fund

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• Save money and become more efficient

• Innovate and become more competitive

• Create thousands of jobs in Ohio

• Improve health

• Rebuild our cities

• Protect natural areas and wildlife

Benefits of a clean energy future

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GreenCityBlueLake InstituteThe Cleveland Museum of Natural Historyhttp://www.gcbl.org/climatechange

Brad [email protected]

© 2009 Cleveland Museum of Natural History

Responding to Climate Change - Driving Ohio Forward

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