Resource Planning & Analysis Update · 4/2/2018 · Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project...
17
Project Team Meeting #8 April 2, 2018 Ken Seasholes CAP:Sam Results
Transcript of Resource Planning & Analysis Update · 4/2/2018 · Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project...
Project Team Meeting #8
April 2, 2018
Ken Seasholes
CAP:Sam Results
“Driving Forces”
Some of the major factors that affect water supply, demand and reliability:
• Growth
• Shortage
• Climate
• Socioeconomics
• Sector Trends
• Policy Changes
• Behavioral Shifts
• ….
Supply, Demand & Uncertainty
Projected ►◄ Actual 30,000 to
60,000
Housing Units
Annually
Growth RateAZ Department of Administration (Low, Med, High Series)
Outward Growth
Infill
Redevelopment
2040 GrowthWater Providers
Growth Location
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Ac
re-F
ee
t p
er
pe
rso
n
Per Capita Use(Total Municipal Sector Use / Population)
• CAP:SAM differentiates
between new and existing
demand
• Rates of change can be
varied to reflect
conservation and climate
effects
Demand Factors
“Dry Climate”
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
“Historic Climate”
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
“Synthetic” shortage sequences were created to simulate
periods of reduced supply and to test system resilience
Colorado River Shortages
OverlayWater Providers
Groundwater Dependence
Housing Density
Water Providers OverlayHousing Density
Groundwater Dependence – Focus on Green Valley
• Scenarios compare three
primary dimensions of risk:
Growth, Climate &
Groundwater Dependence
• Additional factors are
varied in logically
consistent ways
– e.g., higher rates of
evapotranspiration in higher
emissions scenarios
Scenario Matrix
Tucson
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Tucson
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Tucson Water: Slow, Compact, Conserve
Tucson
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Tucson
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Tucson Water: Dry, Rapid Outward
Marana
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
Marana: Slow, Compact, Conserve
Marana
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
Marana: Dry, Rapid Outward
FarmersWC
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,00020
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FICO: Slow, Compact, Conserve
FarmersWC
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FarmersWC
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FICO: Dry, Rapid Outward
LagoDelOro
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Lago Del Oro: Slow, Compact, Conserve
LagoDelOro
Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
Total SRP Existing New SRP Non-SRP Direct ASR Storage Recovery Non-Repl. Replenished
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Housin
g U
nits
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
20
51
20
53
20
55
20
57
20
59
Acre
-Feet
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Lago Del Oro: Dry, Rapid Outward
