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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource Assessment Resource Assessment using using GeoXGeoX

Coco Sta. AnaDepartment of Energy

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

OUTLINEOUTLINEGeoXData requirementsResource assessment basicsIntro to GeoXgProspectRgPlayR

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

OUTLINEOUTLINEBackground of GeoX in DOEGeoXData requirementsResource assessment basicsgProspectRgPlayRgPortfolio

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Background of GeoX in DOEBackground of GeoX in DOE

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

v4.6

v5.01v4.7

v5.03v5.2*

PhilPRA PhilPRO

PPM

~1998

v4.6

Upgrade history

Client/server version

* For uploading

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

DOE License3 simultaneous user licenses

MaintenanceLocal system administratorTechnical support from Geoknowledge

Background of GeoX in DOEBackground of GeoX in DOE

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

GeoXGeoXRisk, Resource and economic Value (RRV) assessment workbench

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

GeoXGeoX

gPlayR gProspectR gFullCycle

DBgPortfolio

Excel, Spotfire etc.

Analysis Exportand Import

gField

gDiscovery

gProfile

Source: Geoknowledge

GeoXTools

gScenariogAggregate

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Data requirements in resource Data requirements in resource assessment (using GeoX)assessment (using GeoX)

Cultural and geological data Resource classification systemRisk modelOther cultural data (e.g., lithology, environment)

Volume parameters (e.g. GRV, NTG)Reservoir parameters (e.g. FVF, GOR)

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basics

GeoX Reservoir Parameters

GeoX Volume Parameters

Calculated

Areal closure x Reservoir thickness x Geometric

factor

Net to gross ratio

Gross rock volume*

Net rock volume*

Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x

Gas fraction

In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:OilNon-associated Gas(Associated Gas)(Condensate)

1/Formation Volume Factor Oil1/Formation Volume Factor GasGORCGR

Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas

Recoverable volumes

x

xx

x

*Can also be input directly

From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge

Equation: Example of prospect analysis (unrisked)

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basics

Calculations are based on random choices of known values

StochasticExpected value (mean), P90 (low estimate),

P10 (high estimate)

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstimates and resources are given with a range of uncertainty

Cumulative probability distribution

Frequency distribution

There is 50% chance that the volume is equal to or

larger than this.

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsResource classification system

Establish a national resource inventoryOverview of the resource baseBasis for resource management

Reserves

Unmappedresources

Potentialresources

Mappedresources

2 1 3Portfolio management

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstablish a national resource classification system prior to assessment

Resource Class

Total ResourcesDiscovered Resources

Reserves Proved reserves

Developed reservesProducing Non-producing

Undeveloped reserves Unproved reserves

Probable reserves Possible reserves

Potential Recoverable ResourcesMay be developed in long termDevelopment not very likely

Undiscovered Resources Hypothetical (Mapped) Resources

Prospects Leads

Speculative (Unmapped) Resources Resources in Confirmed PlaysResources in Unconfirmed Plays

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsRisk model

Estimate the probability of making a discoveryMake the volume estimates less wrong (White, 1993)

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsEstablish risking guidelines prior to assessment

Split into prospect level and play levelExample

Factors taken from the CCOP Guidelines on Risk Assessment

PLAY FACTORS PROSPECT

Existence of reservoir faciesEffective porosityPresence of trap

Effective sealEffective source

Effective migrationRetention after accumulation

x

xx

x

x

x

x

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Resource assessment basicsResource assessment basicsPlay probability

P (Play) is 1,When the play has a technical discovery.The play is confirmed.

P (Play) lies between 0 and 1,When there is no discovery or the play

has not been tested thru drilling.The play is unconfirmed.

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Intro to Intro to GeoXGeoX

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Creating models in GeoXCreating models in GeoX• Log on to GeoX• Click System menu• Select Resource class editor• Select File• Create New resource class editor• Click System menu• Select Risk model editor• Select File• Create New risk model• Set as default

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

GeoX Risk ModelGeoX Risk ModelMarginal play probability (MPP)Conditional prospect probability (CPP)Probability of success = MPP * CPPDry hole risk = 1 – probability of success

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Creating analysisCreating analysisUse GeoXplorer to access and create analyses

Use the tool notebook to enter estimates

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play• Create Prospect • Create Prospect

analysis

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Tool notebookTool notebookProspect descriptionResource classificationHC phase selectionVolume, reservoir and

risk inputResults

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Data entryData entry

Parameter input panel

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

gProspectRgProspectR

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Input dataInput data--gProspectRgProspectRVolumetric model

closurethickness

geometric factor(gross rock volume*)

net to gross ratioporositytrap fill

fraction gas of HCPVoil/gas saturation

recovery factorformation volume factor

gas-oil ratiocondensate yield

Risk modelreservoirsourcemigrationtimingtrapsealretention

HC resources

Dry hole risk

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Volumetric equationVolumetric equation

GeoX Reservoir Parameters

GeoX Volume Parameters

Calculated

Areal closure x Reservoir thickness x Geometric

factor

Net to gross ratio

Gross rock volume*

Net rock volume*

Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x

Gas fraction

In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:OilNon-associated Gas(Associated Gas)(Condensate)

1/Formation Volume Factor Oil1/Formation Volume Factor GasGORCGR

Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas

Recoverable volumes

x

xx

x

*Can also be input directly

From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk modelRisk model• Set the risk model as default• New analyses created will

carry the new risk model• Old analyses retain the old

model

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play• Create Prospect • Create Prospect analysis• Enter estimates• Save• Calculate

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Group Exercise 1Group Exercise 1• Perform prospect analysis using GeoX gProspectR.

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults--risk summaryrisk summary

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults--Recoverable resourcesRecoverable resources

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults--Resources diagramResources diagram

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults--Variance diagramVariance diagram

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

gProspectRgProspectR--multiple segmentsmultiple segments

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MULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMultiple components can be due to

multiple layers or faulting.

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

MULTIPLE RESERVOIRSMULTIPLE RESERVOIRSFrom NPF, Special publication no. 6

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Applies to gProspectRProspect level prospectivity and risk analysis

Similar mechanics as for the standard, single segment model

Calculates resources in prospects with multiple components

More than one reservoir layerDifferent but dependent HC risks and volume

uncertainties

GEOX MULTIGEOX MULTISEGMENT SEGMENT OPTIONOPTION

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

For accurate and effective evaluation of complex, multiple zone and multiple compartment prospectsFor better assessment of the prospect economics

ApplicationsApplications

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk tables in GeoXRisk tables in GeoXSingle segment prospect

Risk factor P (play) P (prospect | play)Existence of reservoir facies(decim 1.000Effective source (decimal) 1.000Effective porosity (decimal) 1.000Presence of trap (decimal) 1.000Effective seal (decimal) 1.000Effective migration (decimal) 1.000Retention after accumulation (dec 1.000> Marginal play probability (decim (calc.)> Conditional prospect probability (calc.)> Unconditional probability (decim (calc.)> Dry hole risk (decimal) (calc.)

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk levels in GeoXRisk levels in GeoX

Multiple segment prospectProspectReservoirSegment

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk levels in GeoXRisk levels in GeoX

Segment levelThe simplest multiple segment case is

a prospect with a single reservoir level and two (2) segments.

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsProspect level

FactorP(common prospect)

max P(common prospect)

P(effective porosity) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(presence of trap) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(effective seal) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(effective migration) [decimal] 1.000 1.000P(retention after accumulation) [dec 1.000 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) [dec 1.000P(effective source) [decimal] 1.000 P(Total) [decimal] (calc.) 1.000

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsReservoir level

Factor P(play)P(common res level | play)

P(common res level)

max P( common res level | play)

P(effective porosity) decimal 1.000P(presence of trap) decimal 1.000P(effective seal) decimal 1.000P(effective migration) decimal 1.000P(retention after accumulation) dec 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) dec 1.000 1.000P(effective source) decimal 1.000 1.000 P(Total) decimal 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Risk tables for multisegmentsRisk tables for multisegmentsSegment level

FactorP(segment | play) P(play)

P(segment | res level) P(segment)

P(effective porosity) decimal 1.000P(presence of trap) decimal 1.000P(effective seal) decimal 1.000P(effective migration) decimal 1.000P(retention after accumulation) dec 1.000P(existence of reservoir facies) dec 1.000 1.000P(effective source) decimal 1.000 1.000 P(Total) decimal 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

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Enter each individual probabilities

When risking,When risking,

Risk factor P (play) P (prospect | play)Existence of reservoir facies(decim 1.000Effective source (decimal) 1.000Effective porosity (decimal) 1.000Presence of trap (decimal) 1.000Effective seal (decimal) 1.000Effective migration (decimal) 1.000Retention after accumulation (dec 1.000> Marginal play probability (decim (calc.)> Conditional prospect probability (calc.)> Unconditional probability (decim (calc.)> Dry hole risk (decimal) (calc.)

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

RESULTS OF ANALYSISRESULTS OF ANALYSISSegments

Segment Recoverable Resources (unrisked)

[R1]Ss1 (1.000)Low (90) Mean High (10)

Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]

[R1]Ss2 (1.000)Low (90) Mean High (10)

Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

RESULTS OF ANALYSISRESULTS OF ANALYSIS

Total resources

RiskRisk Summary

P(Oil): P(Gas): P(Oil&Gas) Dry Hole Risk:

Resource Summary (unrisked prospect)-all segmentsIn place RecoverableLow (90) Mean High (10) Low (90) Mean High (10)

Oil [million STB]Non Associated Gas [billion SCF]Associated Gas [billion SCFl]Condensate [million STB]

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

gPlayRgPlayR

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Input dataInput data--gPlayRgPlayRVolumetric model

closureclosurethicknessthickness

geometric factorgeometric factor(gross rock volume*)(gross rock volume*)

net to gross ratioporositytrap fill

hydrocarbon saturationreservoir depthreservoir depth

number of prospectsoil/gas recovery rate

hydrocarbon probability gasoil formation volume factor

gas-oil ratiocondensate yield

Risk modelreservoirreservoirsourcesourcemigrationmigrationtimingtimingtraptrapsealsealretentionretention

HC resources

Dry hole risk

# of accumulations

Size-by-rank

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Input dataInput data--gPlayRgPlayRVolumetric model

closureclosurethicknessthickness

geometric factorgeometric factor(gross rock volume*)(gross rock volume*)

reservoir depthreservoir depthnet to gross ratio

porositytrap fill

hydrocarbon saturationnumber of prospects

oil/gas recovery ratehydrocarbon probability gasoil formation volume factor

gas-oil ratiocondensate yield

Risk modelreservoirreservoirsourcesourcemigrationmigrationtimingtimingtraptrapsealsealretentionretention

Values are taken from the

mapped prospects

From CCRS maps

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Volumetric equationVolumetric equationUnrisked play volume calculationGeoX Reservoir

ParametersGeoX Volume Parameters

Calculated

Net rock volume – as for Prospects

Porosity x Trap fill x Hydrocarbon saturation x

Gas fraction

In Place Volumes: Accumulation size:Oil,Gas, Asso.Gas,Condensate

1/FVFactor oilGORCGR

Recovery Rate OilRecovery Rate Gas

Recoverable volumes

x

x

x

From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge

Functions of Depth

PressureTemperatureZ-factorDepth floor

Reservoir depth

Number of prospects

Gas Probability

All hydrocarbon liquidsAll gasNumber of accumulations

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Volumetric equationVolumetric equationTotal Recoverable Oil in Play =

Total Recoverable Oil in Accumulation •Number of Oil Accumulations

Total Recoverable Oil in Accumulation= Closure • Thickness •Geometric Factor • Net/Gross • Ø • HS • Fill • 1/FVF oil •Recovery factor

Number of Oil Accumulations = Number of prospects •Probability of Success • Probability of Oil

From 2000 PhilPRA seminar by Exploration Options AS and Geoknowledge

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play

– Highlight Play in GeoXplorer• Create Play analysis• Create Prospect

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

WorkflowWorkflow• Create Basin• Create Play

– Highlight Play in GeoXplorer

• Create Play analysis• Create Prospect• Enter play and risk

estimates• Calculate• Save

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Group Exercise 2Group Exercise 2• Perform play analysis using GeoX gPlayR.

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults--risk summaryrisk summary

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ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rankrank

Number of Oil Accumulations =Number of prospects • Probability of Success • Probability of Oil

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ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rank diagramrank diagram

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

ResultsResults-- sizesize--byby--rank diagramrank diagram

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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

CCOP-PPMGeoknowledgeDOE

maraming salamat po

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22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

gPortfoliogPortfolio

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Creating portfolio analysisCreating portfolio analysis• Select Portfolio in

GeoXplorer• Click File and

select New Folder• Select the folder• Right-click mouse• Select New

portfolio analysis

22-27 January 2004, 2nd Philippine PPM Case Study Workshop

Performing portfolio analysisPerforming portfolio analysis

Click Add to select the analyses for aggregation

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Performing portfolio analysisPerforming portfolio analysis

• After the selection, calculate the portfolio analysis to estimate the resources of the assets.

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Result Result -- Portfolio analysisPortfolio analysis