Resilience Thinking and the Sustainability of Agricultural Systems

Christo Fabricius & Brian Walker

Structure of our presentation

1. Our numbers and global Co2

“We can no longer assume that our collective actions will not trigger tipping points as environmental thresholds are breached, risking irreversible damage to both ecosystems and human communities”. Ban Ki-moon High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability

400 ppm?

219 000 new people every day

2. Uneven distribution of per capita food production

Changes in per capita food production, 1960-2010. From Pretty et al 2011 International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 9

The crisis of African food security

Changes in net per capita agricultural production in Africa (1960 = 100%) From Pretty et al 2011 International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 9

6. Population growth

Sub-Saharan Africa

Global Harvest Initiative 2012

Per capita GDP

Per capita GDP

Foo

d c

on

sum

pti

on

Fo

od

exp

end

itu

re s

har

e

The relation between GDP and a) food consumption and (b) food as a share of total expenditure

a

b

3. Uneven income distribution: a driver of food consumption and affordability

From Cirera & Masset 2010 Phil Trans Royal Soc 365

4. Global demand for meat & fuel

Foley 2013 in litt

* People are moving ‘up the food chain’ * Tug of war between car owners, meat eaters and the world’s poor

Biofuels: the big unknown

Herve et al. 2011 in Economic Effects of Biofuel Production. Intech

Land and water availability

From Rulli et al in press, PNAS

• Ground water and soil depletion in many ‘grabbing’ countries • Cheap land in Africa; failed states, weak land rights

• 66 countries are not self-sufficient - land or water constraints

From Fader et al. 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8

% of popln dependent on

imported food

“available [land] per capita has shrunk from 13.5 ha/person in 1950 to 3.2 ha/person in 2005, and is projected to diminish to 1.5 ha/person in 2050” United Nations Population Fund 2007

But evidence of bans on exports (Earth Policy Institute)

Extent and modification of hydrological flows have increased over the past centuries

Gordon et al. 2008

Identified regime shifts related to agriculture and the hydrological cycle

EVAPORATION & LEAF AREA

Wet savanna -> dry savanna

Cloud forests -> Woodland

Forest -> savanna

Monsoons -> No monsoon

Gordon, et al. 2008

RUN-OFF QUANT, QUAL

Eutrophication

Hypoxic zones

River channel change

INFILTRATION, MOISTURE

Salinisation

Vegetation patterns

Soil structure

Atmosphere

Aquatic

Soil

CO

NSU

MP

TIO

N -

me

at &

fu

el

(ric

h o

ld m

illio

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FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY (poor young billions)

High

High

Low

A safe operating space for the world’s food systems?

“the capacity to absorb disturbance and re-organise so as to retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks – to have the same identity”

involves three, intertwined concepts: 1. Thresholds (specified resilience) 2. Adaptability (general resilience) 3. Transformability (capacity to become a different system)

Resilience

resilience, per se, is neither ‘good’ nor ‘bad’ undesirable states of systems can be very resilient (dictatorships, saline landscapes) a system state that once was desirable can become ‘undesirable’ through changes in external conditions (context)

• most losses in resilience are unintended consequences of processes beyond the scale of focus

• in particular, failure to recognise cross-scale and cross-domain feedbacks

The shape and size of the basin can change – thresholds move, and so resilience changes

Alternate stable states of a rangeland in western NSW

Grassy state Shrubby state

critical feedback loop amount of shrubs amount of grass (fuel load) intensity of fire shrub mortality

Thresholds & tipping points

COSTS (Chemicals; fuel; labour; ecosystem services management)

YIEL

D p

er H

ecta

re

Droughts Fuel price

Overgrazing Infrequent fires

Meat demand

Thresholds & tipping points

COSTS (Chemicals; fuel; labour; ecosystem services management)

YIEL

D p

er H

ecta

re

Droughts

Cheap imports

Over-investment Ecosystem mismanagement

Demand for dairy products

Recession

Over-pumping

Transformability

• preparedness to change • getting beyond the state of denial

• options for change

• new ‘trajectories’ - emerge from support for experiments, novelty, continual learning

• capacity to change

• levels of capitals (including ‘social capital’), higher-scale support - governance

Capacity to make use of ‘windows of opportunity’

Folke et al. 2009 In: Principles of Ecosystem Stewardship: Springer

Just LOOKING at the problem will not solve it

Social-ecological systems framework

Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Plan, Australia http://www.gbcma.vic.gov.au

With participation and empowerment at every level and in every sphere

Innovation: no holy cows anymore

Global Harvest Initiative 2012

Investing in APPROPRIATE research & extension services

Global Harvest Initiative 2012

Returns to investment in research, and extension, respectively is 43% and 49% (Alston 2000; Global Harvest Initiative 2012)

Innovation

• The promise of cooperatives

– Milk production: Indian National Dairy Development Corporation

– Agri-cooperatives

• BUT require

– Governance

– Trust

– Leadership

The Fort Hare Agri-park, South Africa

Over time a range of economic activities and developments will occur, towards expanded and holistic enhancement of local livelihoods, led in the longer term by organized, capacitated, self-representing and flourishing communities

FEEDER PLOT co-owned by community members in collective/ cooperative structure

Independent local producers

AGRO-PROCESSING

FACILITY co-owned with community members-workers

NURSERY - Co-operatively owned supplying planting material to local producers

Public Sector

Markets

- Schools (SNP) - Hospitals & Clinics

- Other public establishments

Private

Sector

Markets

domestic and international

R&D, capacity-building and other development support by university, departments and other institutions

Depot

Depot

Courtesy of Prof Jan Raats

Working with farmers to incorporate local knowledge Is the perception that it is getting drier true?

Enfors and Gordon, 2007

Not for seasonal rainfall..

…but dryspells are increasing

What promotes resilience thinking and practice?

1. foster an understanding of SES as complex adaptive systems

2. maintain diversity and redundancy

3. manage connectivity

4. manage slow variables and feedbacks

5. encourage learning and experimentation

6. broaden participation

7. promote distributed systems for decision making at multiple levels

Biggs et al. 2012. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 37

Social transformation

• From only productivity-focused to using a resilience lens

• Diversification

• Looking across scales and knowledge systems. From policy reform to local use of technology

• Linking ecosystems, society, economic systems and governance

• “Novel social infrastructure” built on trust

• “Collaborative resilience”: private sector, governments, farmers

• Empowerment of women

– Farming is an excellent entry point

Resilience resources:

-www.resalliance.org -information and news - workbooks (free, downloadable)

-Ecology and Society -www.ecologyandsociety.org

-Twitter: @christofab @resilienceSci

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