Resilience of Complex Adaptive and Evolving Infrastructure Systems

Dr. Shima Beigi Faculty of Engineering

University of Bristol

Bifurcation of Thoughts: What Is Resilience And What It Is Not

Natural Systems

➢ Persistence of Relationships, Absorption of Shocks (Holling 1973)

➢ Qualitative property that changes throughout ecosystem dynamics (Holling 2001)

➢ Reorganization while undergoing change

➢ Retention of Structure, Function, Feedback and Identity

➢ Avoiding Critical Transitions, Probability of Extinction

➢ Adaptation (Walker et al 2004; Holling and Gunderson 2002)

➢ Transformability of Social and Ecological Systems (Walker et al 2004; 2006; Walker and Salt 2006; Walker and Salt 2012; Marten Scheffer 2009)

Infrastructure Systems

➢ Continuity of Function (MCEER Publications 2003-2011)

➢ Rapid Recovery (We have not built for recovery in first place!)

➢ Bouncing Back (Direction?)

➢ Tolerable Level of Loss (How to Measure?)

➢ Climate Proof Systems (Like Wearing a Jacket?)

➢ Adaptation (Are We Now in a Desirable State?)

➢ Evolution of Socio-Technical Systems and Their Transition (Pim and Kemp 1998, Smith and Stirling 2008, Bollinger et al 2012, Zhao et al 2012)

Change Seeks To Materialize Its Ingredients

Be Aware Of The Gap Between Extinction And Persistence

Haiti Earthquake 2010 Japan Earthquake 2011

1) LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ITS PHASE-SPACE MATTERS.

Disasters Can Teach Us About Our Distance To Critical Thresholds

FAILURE OF CONTROL MECHANISM EXHAUSTION OF DEGREE OF RESILIENCY OF COMMUNITIES

Resilience Is About Architecting “Order” In The Systems and “Extending Survival”

HAITI RESPONSE JAPAN

HAITI ONWARD PROJECT AND ARCHITECTURE FOR HUMANITY

UTILISING THE CREATIVE DESTRUCTION AND BOTTOM UP DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Haiti recovery map by Gene Thorp/The Washington. Source: http://www.mapmanusa.com/cci-twp-persp-3.htmlJapan recovery respond, Combined Image: Source: http://www.lidovky.cz

Social And Ecological Landscape And Adaptive Cycle Model

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ABSORPTION OF DISTURBANCE

Persistence of Key Relationships

(Robustness and Feedback Loops)

REORGANISE WHILE EXPERIENCING CHANGE

(Self-Organisation)

RETAINING OF THE SAME STRUCTURE, FUNCTION, IDENTITY AND FEEDBACK

Remember and Revolt

(Trade-Offs, Distance to Thresholds)

OBJECTIVEAvoiding Critical Transitions and Regime

Shifts

DESIRED PROPERTYMaintenance of Existence of Function

(E.g., Clear State in Lakes)

Transformation Adaptation

Shima Beigi (2015)

Resilience of Complex Critical Infrastructures Systems

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STRUCTURAL FAILURES

INTERDEPENDENCIES

FUNCTIONAL FAILURES

Physical Geographical

CyberLOGICAL

OBJECTIVEAvoiding Loss and Enhance Cope-Ability

of Communities With Change

DESIRED PROPERTY

Maintenance of Continuity of Function (E.g., Normal Mode of Service)

Shima Beigi (2015)

Historical Events and Nonlinear Dynamics of Technology and Infrastructure Systems

Examples of Nonlinear Effects

• Rethinking Nuclear Energy in Germany

• Magnet Effect in transition shelters and prolonged recovery time

• Order: Entrainment of Flashbulb Memories, Stimulating the Process of Emergence of “New Resilience in Old Bottle” or “Completely New Resilience”.

• WE DON’T WANT THE OLD STATE ANY MORE !

Examples of Triggers

• Failure of Absorptive Mechanism and Robustness in Fukushima Power Plant;

• Failure of Haitian Government to Utilize Resourcefulness of Haitian and Enhance Degree of Resiliency of System as a Whole;

• Disorder: Disruption of “Old Resilience”

• Haiti Earthquake Occurred After 108 Years!

Adger 2000: Resilience is the Ability of Groups or Communities to Cope with External Stresses and Disturbances As a Result of Social, Political and

Environmental Change.Adger 2006:

Resilience Is Broadly The Potential To Create Opportunities For Doing New Things For Innovation And Development.

How To Translate Resilience?

Shima Beigi (2015)

How To Translate Resilience?

Shima Beigi (2015)

How To Translate Resilience?

Emergent Sub-Scape of Flows

Space

(Animals)

(Human)

Resources

(Plants)

(Human)

Time

(Human)

Humans Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow and to Be Active in Space and to Be Active in Time

Animals Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow and to Be Active

in Space

Plants Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow

Stress

Humanity in order to live must produce creatively and therefore must be guided by applied sciences of ethics, jurisprudence, psychology, economics, sociology, politics, and government must be technologised: They must be made to progress and to function in the proper dimension.

Alfred Korzybski- 1921 Manhood of Humanity- Page 62.

4) Scale Matters.

Shima Beigi (2015)

Trade-offs, Feedbacks and The Tension Between Quantity And Quality

Natural Systems Infrastructure Systems

What Would We Like Our Transportation And Infrastructure Systems, Communities And World Look Like Over Decadal And Beyond Time Scales?

Shima Beigi (2015)

Model Linking Changes In Ecosystem Properties During Desertification To Changes In Global Biochemistry

A Generic Model of Resilience: Synthetic Resilience

Ecological Resilience Engineering Resilience and Disaster Resilience

➢Changes In The Dynamics Of River-bed And Flow After➢Emergence Of “Quake Lakes”! ➢Loss Of Economic Activity As A Result Of Changes In The

River ➢Increasing The Poverty In The Rural Areas ➢Prolonging Recovery And Increasing The Vulnerability Of

The Region ➢Triggering Change In Conservation Policies

1. The Impacts Of Disasters On Ecosystems Is An Emerging New Area Of Research. The Data Released After The Quake In Wenchuan Province In China 2008, 7.9 M, Show Intricate Links Between Resilience Of Communities, Robustness Of

Engineered Infrastructure Systems, Resilience Of Natural Systems, And Efficiency Of Disaster Management Processes. 2. Societies Has To Choose The Type Of Robustness In Which It Is Most Willing To Invest To Enhance Their Resourcefulness

To Cope With Surprise.

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Shima Beigi (2015)

Disasters Can Teach Us About The Role Of Inventory Of Resourcefulness In Rebuilding From Ruin

SUCCESS OF CONTROL MECHANISM CHINA EARTHQUAKE 2008

SUSTAINING DEGREE OF RESILIENCY OF COMMUNITIES

LARGE NATIONS WITH A RAPIDLY GROWING ECONOMY CAN DIVERT MORE RESOURCES FROM MORE PROSPEROUS AREAS TO AID ONE DEVASTATED REGION.

References 1. Allan Taylor, Sichuan Earthquake: Five Years Later, 2013, http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013/05/sichuan-earthquake-five-years-later/100513/

2. Alfred Korzybski (1921), Manhood of Humanity: The Science and Art of Human Engineering- New York- Pages 240

3. Austin Ramzy, Haiti and China: A Tale of Two Earthquakes, 2010, Time Magazine, www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1954644,00.html

4. Bellwood, D.R., et al., Confronting the coral reef crisis. Nature, 2004. 429(6994): p. 827-833.

5. Bruneau, M., S. E. Chang, et al. (2003). "A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities." Earthquake Spectra 19(4): 733-752.

6. Dai, L., D. Vorselen, et al. (2012). "Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse." Science 336(6085): 1175-1177.

7. Dai, L., K. S. Korolev, et al. (2013). "Slower recovery in space before collapse of connected populations." Nature 496(7445): 355-+.

8. Dienstbier, R.A., Arousal and Physiological Toughness - Implications for Mental and Physical Health. Psychological Review, 1989. 96(1): p. 84-100.

9. Grimm, V. and S. F. Railsback (2005). Why Individual-based Modelling and Ecology? Individual-based Modelling and Ecology Princeton University Press Princeton University Press 20.

10. Haiti recovery map by Gene Thorp/The Washington. http://www.mapmanusa.com/cci-twp-persp-3.html

11. Holling, C. S. (1973). "Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems " Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4: 1-23.

12. Japan recovery respond, Combined Image: http://www.lidovky.cz

13. Japan: Yomiuri Shimbun /AFP/Getty Images

14. Lance., H., Gunderson., et al. (2002). Sustainability and Panarchies. Panarchy: Understanding Transformations In Human And Natural Systems. Washington DC, Island Press: 63-100.

15. Mileti, D. S. (2001). "Disasters by design." Facing Our Future: Hurricane Floyd and Recovery in the Coastal Plain: 127-139.

16. Moberg, F. and C. Folke, Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems. Ecological Economics, 1999. 29(2): p. 215-233.

17. Ostrom, E. (2004). "Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems." Ecological Economics 49(4): 488-491.

18. Petak, W. J. (2002). "Earthquake resilience through mitigation: a system approach." International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

19. Peter J. Mumby, Alan Hastings & Helen J. Edwards (2007), Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs, Nature 450, 98-101- doi:10.1038/nature06252

20. Pimm, S. L. (1984). "The Complexity and Stability of Ecosystems." Nature 307(5949): 321-326.

21. Sheffi, Y. (2005). "Supply Chain Strategies: Building a Resilient Supply Chain " Harvard Business Review 1(8): 1-14.

22. Schrödinger, E. (1944). Order, Disorder and Entropy. What is Life? . Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies at Trinity College: 31.

23. The World Band, http://blogs.worldbank.org/latinamerica/haiti-top-five-wishes-for-2013

24. Thomas P. Hughes , The Evolution of Large Technological Systems - The Social Construction of Technology, MIT Press , 2012. Chapter 1

25. W. Neil Adger, Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress in Human Geography, 2000. 24(3):p. 347–364

26. Walker, B., C. S. Holling, et al. (2004). "Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems." Ecology and Society 9(2).

27. Walker, B., L. Gunderson, et al. (2006). "A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems." Ecology and Society 11(1).

28. Schluter, M. and C. Pahl-Wostl, Mechanisms of resilience in common-pool resource management systems: an agent-based model of water use in a river basin. Ecology and Society, 2007. 12(2).

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