Google: The Role of Internet Search in Elections in

Established and Challenged Democracies

 Research project hosted by the University of Glasgow’s Adam Smith Research Foundation

Funded by the ESRCwww.voterecology.com

Determining citizen agenda by identifying unexpected search terms (i.e. scandals/controversial policies/social media events)

Citizen-centric approach

Political actors (campaign agenda)

Mainstream media (agenda setting)

Citizen agenda (Search agenda)

Google Trends

Nexus analysis

From Established Democracies to transitional States: A Cross Country Case Study

ESTABLISHED DEMOCRACY

USA/UK

(UK 2010 / USA 2012 presidential elections)

Search trends & candidates’ gaffes on sensitive issues

(2013 ParliamentElections campaign)

Berlusconi & mass media

Search trends: scandal of Oscar Giannino

(2011 revolution – 2013 coup d’état)

Activism, protests and search agenda

CHALLENGED DEMOCRACY

ITALY

TRANSITIONAL STATE

EGYPT

2012 Presidential election

Leading candidates

Suffrage Affiliations Ideology

Amr Mussa 11.13% Independent Liberal

Abu al Futuh 17.47% Independent Moderate traditionalist

Hamdeen Sabahi 20.72% IndependentNasserist

(socialist/nationalist)

Mohammed Morsi 24.78%Freedom and Justice

PartyMuslim Brotherhood

Ahmad Shafik 23.66% Independent Military

2012 Presidential election: media event

Presidential TV debate (Candidates Abu al Futuh & Amr Mussa)

Election (round 1)

Egyptian public opinion (2011 revolution - 2013 coup d’état)

Constant: Political Issues

Variable: Political actors

Youth unemployment

Corruption

Relationship with Israel

Army’s involvement in

public affairs

Application of Islamic law

Post-revolutionary

Constitution

Liberal opposition leaders

Conservative parties

(Islamic bloc)

Youth movements

Protestors and activists

Militaries

Unexpected search: 3 categories of key actors

Traditional political figures

Activists, bloggers and opposition leaders

Individual citizens: revolutionaries and

martyrs

Members of Constituent Assembly

Wael Ghonim Mohammed Bou’zizi

Leaders of parties Tamarud youth organisation Khaled Said

Members of transitional government

 Alaa Abdel Fatah 2011 protests martyrs

2012 presidential candidates  Bassem Youssef 2012-2013 protests martyrs

Official political actors

Activists and alternative political agents

Martyrs of the revolution

Activists VS political officials

Martyrs of the revolution VS political officials

Controversial political officials reach higher SV

SV for Egyptian martyrs = SV minor political stakeholders

SV of famous activists ≥SV of major political stakeholders

The Egyptian Search Agenda

Political action rather than political ideology

Decreasing interest for traditional political structures

Emerging political leaders active online and likely to influence search agenda

Potential framework for fluid democarcy

Conclusion