Research meeting (09/04/ 2013)
17
Research meeting (09/04/2013) Jesse Bikman
-
Upload
raymond-hernandez -
Category
Documents
-
view
15 -
download
3
description
Research meeting (09/04/ 2013). Jesse Bikman. Progress since last Wednesday. Plotted 648 storms as a function of CPD value Storms appear evenly distributed, spatially and numerically Ran twelve new cross validation perturbation scenarios : - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Research meeting (09/04/ 2013)
Research meeting (09/04/2013)
Jesse Bikman
Progress since last Wednesday
• Plotted 648 storms as a function of CPD value• Storms appear evenly distributed, spatially and
numerically
• Ran twelve new cross validation perturbation scenarios:
• Compared DB_two to DB_three with 100 and 140 response points
• {Base, Base minus CPD, Base minus Vmax} scenarios• Recall that Base: {CPD, RMW, H_B, TS, Vmax, DB_latP*}
DB_two and DB_threeLongitude separation between track line intersection point and reference
longitudes on latitudes 33.5, 34.5, 35.25, 36, 37 N (DB_two, DB_three)
RMS Error metrics
Si = original model value at response point i
S*i = surrogate model value at response point i
Ei = error at response point i, S*i – Si
N = # values at a response point
M = # values where 0.5(Si + S*i) > threshold value
P with DB_two_100 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.96 0.12 0.25 0.21 0.62 0.14 0.332. base - CPD 0.97 0.10 0.19 0.17 0.49 0.11 0.243. base - Vmax 0.97 0.11 0.21 0.19 0.39 0.13 0.26
P with DB_three_100 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.97 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.29 0.12 0.192. base - CPD 0.98 0.09 0.14 0.15 0.25 0.11 0.183. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.18 0.37 0.13 0.26
Simulation Bulk Statistics (100)
Optimized Weights (100)
P with DB_two_100 Hurricane Parameters Optimization Parameters
Parameter Set CPD RMW Holland B
Forward Speed Vmax L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 c k Nd
1. base 3.08 3.09 0.20 5.05 47.62 22.51 38.11 0.21 1.32 1172. base - CPD 0.22 0.24 5.96 31.24 28.66 14.57 0.05 0.63 1023. base - Vmax 0.81 0.49 0.25 5.98 5.13 39.98 0.05 0.68 80
P with DB_three_100 Hurricane Parameters Optimization Parameters
Parameter Set CPD RMW Holland B
Forward Speed Vmax L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 c k Nd
1. base 7.35 3.04 2.39 5.74 40.26 11.46 14.08 36.64 0.26 1.68 1492. base - CPD 1.20 1.50 5.68 38.25 19.20 3.73 39.87 0.17 1.19 1423. base - Vmax 5.31 2.01 1.66 5.89 26.85 16.98 30.08 0.33 2.05 136
P with DB_two_140 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.96 0.13 0.24 0.22 0.44 0.16 0.302. base - CPD 0.96 0.12 0.19 0.20 0.44 0.14 0.243. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.22 0.46 0.14 0.24
P with DB_three_140 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.97 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.29 0.13 0.192. base - CPD 0.97 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.28 0.11 0.183. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.19 0.38 0.13 0.26
Simulation Bulk Statistics (140)
Optimized Weights (140)
P with DB_two_140 Hurricane Parameters Optimization Parameters
Parameter Set CPD RMW Holland B
Forward Speed Vmax L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 c k Nd
1. base 5.52 2.38 1.33 4.17 32.07 38.22 39.24 0.21 1.39 1092. base - CPD 3.53 1.27 3.92 29.15 33.89 19.25 0.28 1.28 843. base - Vmax 0.81 1.02 0.21 5.94 12.20 39.70 0.41 2.48 96
P with DB_three_140 Hurricane Parameters Optimization Parameters
Parameter Set CPD RMW Holland B
Forward Speed Vmax L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 c k Nd
1. base 7.35 4.04 2.33 5.99 40.38 15.46 12.33 32.64 0.26 1.68 1492. base - CPD 1.61 1.95 5.76 32.25 17.76 4.30 39.94 0.17 1.23 1463. base - Vmax 6.55 3.59 2.58 5.92 34.66 23.52 36.83 0.29 1.83 132
Comparing this week’s simulation bulk statistics to last week’s (100):
P with DB_five AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.95 0.15 0.26 0.26 0.63 0.17 0.322. base - CPD 0.96 0.13 0.24 0.23 0.55 0.15 0.303. base - Vmax 0.97 0.12 0.21 0.19 0.38 0.14 0.264. base - CPD, Vmax 0.33 0.56 0.89 1.82 4.13 0.65 0.98
P with DB_three_100 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.97 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.29 0.12 0.192. base - CPD 0.98 0.09 0.14 0.15 0.25 0.11 0.183. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.18 0.37 0.13 0.26
P with DB_two_100 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.96 0.12 0.25 0.21 0.62 0.14 0.332. base - CPD 0.97 0.10 0.19 0.17 0.49 0.11 0.243. base - Vmax 0.97 0.11 0.21 0.19 0.39 0.13 0.26
Comparing this week’s simulation bulk statistics to last week’s (140):
P with DB_five AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.95 0.15 0.26 0.26 0.63 0.17 0.322. base - CPD 0.96 0.13 0.24 0.23 0.55 0.15 0.303. base - Vmax 0.97 0.12 0.21 0.19 0.38 0.14 0.264. base - CPD, Vmax 0.33 0.56 0.89 1.82 4.13 0.65 0.98
P with DB_three_140 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.97 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.29 0.13 0.192. base - CPD 0.97 0.09 0.14 0.16 0.28 0.11 0.183. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.19 0.38 0.13 0.26
P with DB_two_140 AR2 RMSE Response Weighted RMSE Threshold RMSE
Parameter Set mean max mean max mean max
1. base 0.96 0.13 0.24 0.22 0.44 0.16 0.302. base - CPD 0.96 0.12 0.19 0.20 0.44 0.14 0.243. base - Vmax 0.96 0.12 0.20 0.22 0.46 0.14 0.24
Base: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
Base no {CPD}: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
Base no {Vmax}: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
Composite RMSE: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
Composite RW_RMSE: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
Composite T_RMSE: (DB_two) left, (DB_three) right
