Research institute for water, subsurface and infrastructure · 2018-07-05 · • max flood damage...
Transcript of Research institute for water, subsurface and infrastructure · 2018-07-05 · • max flood damage...
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Research institute
for water, subsurface and infrastructure
Jaap Kwadijk, Director of Science
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Deltares formed to avoid this in NL
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Characteristics of institute
Independent research institute on
water, soil and infrastructure
Legal form: foundation under Dutch
law (no shareholders, Not4Profit)
Doing applied research and
specialized consultancy
Our mission and motto: ‘enabling
delta life’
Working (inter)nationally for public
and private sector
Making use of unique in-house
research facilities and software
Strong links with the Academia
Campus in Delft
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Some more background….
Fact and Figures
Personnel: some 850 fte,
about15 % international from 25 –
30 countries
Annual turnover over 100 million
Euro (ca. 30 % abroad)
Located in Delft and Utrecht
Offices in Singapore, Washington
DC and Abu Dhabi
Deltares and academia
Some 20 (part-time) professors
Guidance (often in form of
internship) of some 60 PhD’s
Cooperation with most Dutch
universities
International relations +
exchange (Singapore, …)
Knowledge impact audits
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Research and consultancy on societal themes
See also http://worldofdeltares.deltares.nl/
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Research facilities
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• Deltares software used in more than 100 countries
• Open software establishes sharing community
Open software: dare to share
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5 juli 2018
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Deltares Forecasting system in more than 40
countries
> 33% global GDP (~177TEURO) under FEWS
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Some global water / flood assessments
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Courtesy to Prof.:
Marc
Bierkens
Marc Iliffe
Jeroen
Aerts
Nick van de
Giesen
Gennadii Donchyts
Daniël Tollenaar
Hessel
Winsemius;
Albrecht Weerts
Martin Verlaan
Nick Gorelick
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Use global data locally
Manzese ward, Dar es Salaam
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International research directions 2018-20121
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Some food for thought
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November 30 2011
Expected growth in risk (only rivers here)
Winsemius et al et al. (2016): Large growth in risk in S-E Asia due to climate
change but climate change impact is dwarfed by the disproportionate growth of
economy in flood prone zones.
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Risk = f(hazard, exposure, vulnerability)
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Cost-benefit analysis: minimising total costs
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Investment costs
Expected damage cost
Total costs
Costs
(dollar)
Levee height (cm)
(Marginal benefits = marginal costs)
Protection standard (1/year)Are there limits to meaningful
values here
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Risk beyond adaptation: SIDS as hotspots
Figure: Expected annual
damages (EAD) under SLR
(sea level rise) scenario RCP
8.5 (Representative
Concentration Pathway), for
different time horizons (current,
2030, 2050 and 2100). Sub-
areas define sectors
characterised by homogeneous
exposed assets. Values are
given per areal unit (USD/m2)
How do we address “buying time”??
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Legend
1/500
1/1.250
1/2.000
1/4.000
1/10.000
1/40.000
1/100.000
Efficient standards Existing standards
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(Dutch) Flood hazard vs some other natural
hazards (?)
P (NL hit by a massive
Volcanic eruption) >
1/60K (?)
P (Annihiliation of the US)
> 1/400K (?)
P (globe hit by a massive
tsunami ) > 1/ 1000K (?)
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Limits to meaningful predictions
Triggered by Bruno Merz
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Example forecasting model for the River Rhine
in NL
Flood standard 1: 100,000
If such a flood is forecasted : Evacuate
Suppose our forecasting model predicts floods correct in 98% of the
cases
Lets evaluate the system over 10 million year, 1 flood per year
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107 years
100 xfloods
999,999,900
no- xfloods
Reality Predicted
98 xfloods (hit)
2 no xfloods (miss)
199.998 xfloods (false)
9.799.902 no xfloods
(correct negative)
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And it is getting worse
So the probability that a forecast is correct ~ 0,05%
Some reasonable figures in this area:
• max flood damage = 100 billion
• 20% can be avoided by timely warning = 20 billion
• Costs of an evacuation 150 thousand people ~ 75 million.
Economic value of using this system = avoided damage –costs
evacuations (false and hits)
In this case the value amounts ~ - 1,3 million per year
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Enjoy your stay