Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47...
-
Upload
dwight-wilkerson -
Category
Documents
-
view
212 -
download
0
Transcript of Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47...
Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
From Black Spots to Grey Road Sections
- What is the Right Way?
Michael SørensenResearch Engineer, PhD
Institute of Transport Economics
2Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Background for presentation
PhD project: Hazardous road sections in rural areasEU project: Black Spot Management and Network Safety Management (RIPCORD)
3Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Background for project
1) What do we mean with NSM and RSI? 2) Where do NSM and RSI differ and overlap?
3) Do we need both NSM and RSI?
BSM: Long tradition and is now considered as ineffectiveNSM: Supplement to BSM in the last 5-10 years
(Identification, analysis and treatment of hazardous (grey) road sections)
RSI: Supplement to BSM and RSA in the last 5-10 yearsRSA: Adopted in more and more countries
4Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Objective, focus and methodObjective
– Clarify the basis philosophy for NSM– Evaluate how NSM differ from BSM and RSI– Evaluate if NSM is needed or if focus should be on RSI
Focus NSM in Denmark (main roads in rural areas)
Method Literature survey of exiting method and scientific articles Interview with 18 Danish key persons Development of a Danish method for NSM Analysis of treatment suggestions for 9 grey road sections
5Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
A new Danish method for NSM - Category and severity based identification
RPI:RWACD:AWACD: 4:
Reduction potential indexRecorded accident cost weighted accident densityAverage accident cost weighted accident densityEstimered identification criterion for Denmark
)ACD(W)ACD(W)ACD(W WACD proppropminminserser
Definition: Uniform road sections (2-10 km), where RPI > 4 (Largest potential for “saving” the most serious accidents)
RPI = RWACD – AWARD > 4
ACD:W:
Accident density for accidents with different severityWeight for accidents with different severity
6Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Weights
Accident costsAC ser = (CPkilled ∙ xkilled) + (CPser ∙ xser) + (CPmin ∙ xmin) + CPracc
ACmin = (ACmin ∙ xmin) + CPracc
ACprop = CPracc
Costs related to people and property damageCPkilled = 10,404,000 DkkCPser = 1,085,000 DkkCPmin = 295,000 DkkCPracc = 100,000 Dkk
Number of injured road usersxKilled: Killed per accidentxser: Serious injured per accidentxmin: Minor injured per accident
prop
serser AC
ACW
prop
minmin AC
ACW 1
AC
ACW
prop
propprop
7Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Identification - an exampleRingkøbing County and
Viborg County1.561 km290 sectionsAverage length: 5,4 km18 grey road sectionGrey road sections
comprise 4-8 % of the road network
# #
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
Tarm
Ikast
Kibæk
BrandeSkjern
Struer
Lemvig
Herning
Videbæk
Ulfborg
Vinderup
Harboøre
Thyborøn
Holstebro
Hvidbjerg
Ringkøbing
Hvide Sande
Sønder Felding
Ringkøbing.shpKommuneveje.shpStatsveje.shp
Arp.shpOver 43 - 42 - 30 - 2Under 0
# Byer.shp
Ringkøbing County
# #
#
#
###
#
#
#
#
#
##
#
#
#
#
Tarm
Ikast
Kibæk
BrandeSkjern
Struer
Lemvig
Herning
Videbæk
Ulfborg
Vinderup
Harboøre
Thyborøn
Holstebro
Hvidbjerg
Ringkøbing
Hvide Sande
Sønder Felding
Ringkøbing.shpKommuneveje.shpStatsveje.shp
Arp.shpOver 43 - 42 - 30 - 2Under 0
# Byer.shp
8Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Different identification methods
Reference to population of site
Section length
Reference to normal safety level
Recorded or expected number
Accident severity considered
Accident period
Denmark Yes 2-10 kmYes, Category analysis
RecordedYes, Weights for 4 different categories of accident
5 years
Germany Yes 3-10 kmYes, Category analysis
RecordedYes, Weights for 3 different categories of accident
3 years
Norway Yes1 km (more)
Yes, Accident prediction models
ExpectedYes, Weights for 4 different categories of injured
8 years
USA YesSeveral miles
Yes, Accident prediction models
ExpectedYes, Possible to select the most severe accident
Optionally
9Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
NSM compared with RSA, RSI, and BSM
Philo-sophy
Identifi-cation Analysis Severity Length
Frequ-ency When
RSA Proactive New roadsNot accident based
-All new roads
Once0-1 year after opening
RSI ProactiveNot accident based
Not accident based
- 2-10 kmEvery 2-4 year
Over 3-4 years after opening
NSMPro- and reactive
Accident based
Accident based and general problems
Included 2-10 kmEvery 2-4 year
Over 5 years after opening
BSM ReactiveAccident based
Only accident based
Not included
Under0.5 km
Every 1-2 year
Over 5 years after opening
10Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Assessment of method and philosophyAn systematic evaluation of 108 measures proposed on 9
grey road sections
71 % are only proactive (relate only to problems identified in the road inspection)
Only 29 % of the measures have both a reactive and proactive nature (relate both to problems identified in the accident analysis and in the road inspection)
Road section A B C D E F G H I Total
Remedial and preventive 7 3 1 3 3 5 2 3 4 31Only preventive 9 11 7 13 5 9 6 5 12 77The nature of measures proposed on 9 grey road sections
11Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
Conclusion – NSM is not the wayThe category and severity based method for identification is
better than the options, which the Danish road authorities have at the present moment
However, it is difficult to identify site-specific local accident and injury factors on the grey road sections
The analysis gets the nature of being a general road inspection (RSI) with attention on standard improvements
Discrepancy between philosophy and actual work: accident based identification and not accident based analysis and treatment
Road inspections and standard improvements contribute to traffic safety improvements, but the ranking may be done in a better way by an not accident based method (RSI)
Research Engineer, PhD Michael Sørensen · Institute of Transport Economics · [email protected] · + 47 22 57 39 10 · 23/4-2008
From Black Spots to Grey Road Sections
- What is the Right Way?
…Questions and comments