ResAssure - The World’s Fastest Reservoir Simulator | A Revolution in Reserves Assurance and...

ResAssure

A Revolution in Reservoir Simulation and Uncertainty Modelling

www.StochasticSimulation.com

Presentation outline

• ResAssure – An introduction

• Philosophy

• Where ResAssure fits into Reservoir Simulation

• Driving ResAssure from Eclipse

• Some Examples

Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2013 2

What is ResAssure?

ResAssure is a revolutionary reservoir simulator integrated

closely to the latest MCMC techniques providing rigorous

subsurface quantification


Why ResAssure is a revolution?

• It achieves incredible reservoir simulation speeds (~1000 times) compared to any conventional reservoir simulator

• It’s based on a significant innovation in numerical solution techniques

• It is not a proxy solution

• It provides fully implicit solutions for every geological realization


• Evaluating very large numbers of simulation outcomes and obtaining probabilistic forecast distribution in the presence of uncertainty

• Stochastic simulation of hydrocarbon reserves:

– Narrows the range of uncertainty in reserves estimation

– Better information for production and financing decisions

– Reduces the potential for over- or under-investment

• Learn about Stochastic Reservoir Engineering

What is Stochastic Simulation?


http://youtu.be/1wa0wN5EXyI


• Philosophy



• Some Examples

Outline of Presentation


Key Insights

• Consistency between volumetric, material balance and fractional flow places very strong constraints on feasible reservoir models



Consistency: Material Balance Constraints

VolumetricGRV, Structure,

Porosity, Net-sand,Sw, GOC, OWC

Material BalancePVT, Aquifer Influx

Compressibility,Pressure Response

Well ProductionFractional FlowWater-Cut, GOR

Key Insights


• Consistency between volumetric, material balance and fractional flow places very strong constraints on feasible reservoir models.

• The mathematics of reservoir simulation is NOT complex – it is the geology which is complex.

Complexity

Percussionists at the Beijing Olympics – impressive but not complex


Complexity

Geological complexity is the main driver of reserves uncertainty


Key Insights


• Consistency between volumetric, material balance and fractional flow places very strong constraints on feasible reservoir models.

• The mathematics of reservoir simulation is NOT complex – it is the geology which is complex.

• Reserves uncertainty is not quantified, but estimated from current ‘best’ estimates in an ad hoc unsystematic way.

Wormhole of Reality

Reserves evolution with time



Zone of Consistency

Production

Volume Pressure

Low Consistency

Low Certainty

Medium Consistency

Medium Certainty

High Consistency

High Certainty

Most Likely Outcome

ResAssure finds the “Zone of Consistency”


• Philosophy



• Some Examples




The Wheel of Reservoir Simulation

Data

Model Application (reserves estimation and production forecasting)

Implementation

Spatial & temporal upscaling

Validation

Independent data & analogue studies

Model FormulationDefinition of

model structure

Model Characterisation

Consistency checks, parameter estimation

& data constraints

Fit-for-purpose Assessment

Plausibility & evaluation of uncertainty


ResAssure Workflow Position

E

X

I

S

T

I

N

G

Seismic Interpretation

Geological Modelling

(Petrel, RMS)

Production Data

Reservoir Simulation Model

(Eclipse, Tempest)

History Matching Experimental Design

(Cougar, EnABLE)

Single Reservoir Model

“P90”

Lo

“P50”

Mid

“P10”

Hi

Reserves

Stochastic Simulation (ResAssure)

Full Distribution of Reservoir Models

Reserves

Pro

bab

ility

• ResAssure leverages existing systems

Geophysics, Geology & Petrophysics

• Depositional environment

- Geo Statistical property interpolation

- Facies and rock types

• Structure, seismic picks, layer thickness

• Fault position

• Net-gross, porosity, permeability, fluid saturation

Fluid System

• Matrix-fracture transmissibility

• Fault transmissibility

• Fluid / rock compressibility

• Aquifer recharge

• Fluid Contacts

• PVT properties

• Relative permeability end-points

Well Production Matching

• Fractional flow

• Decline curves

• Oil, gas and water production

• Region and Well Pressure

What Parameters Can Be Included?


ResAssure

• 100,000’s realisations

• full 3D simulation for every realisation

• ~1000 times faster than conventional simulators

• 100’s of perturbation modifiers can be simultaneously analysed

• Any reservoir property can be included as all perturbations built into simulation engine

• Multiple methodologies for exploring space of realisations

Experimental Design/Proxy Surface

• Limited number of full 3D realisations

• Accuracy limited to resolution of proxy surface

• Workflow time constrained by that of conventional simulator run time

• Proxy surface resolution and exploration of parameter space limited by ‘curse of dimensionality’

• Modifications limited by model building work-flows

Comparison



• Philosophy



• Some Examples



ResAssure Workflow


Launch ResAssure (using Amazon Web

Services)Select Perturbations

Convert to ResAssureformat

Review Model/Geology View Results

Eclipse DataDeck(or other format)

Run Multiple Realisations

Parameters are assigned to reservoir regions:

Equilibration

PVT

Fluid in Place

Saturation

Boolean combinations (intersection/union) of these

Each parameter is assigned:

Minimum

Maximum

Perturbation / Step Size

Probability Distribution (MCMC)

etc

Perturbation Selection


• ResAssure – A Practical Solution– Currently, small to medium simulations running on a single

thread generate approximately 500 ~ 2500 realisations / hour

– Parallelisation on an 4 core high performance CPU realises almost linear speed-up to ~ 10000 realisations / hour

– 24 hours of computing can generate > 100,000 realisations, each of which is a valid history-match or reservoir forecast

This simulation speed is sufficiently fast to enable the working

reservoir engineer efficient turnaround of stochastic simulation

solutions within the working day.


Cloud Computing (Amazon Web Services)


How is this speed achieved?

• ResAssure provides fully implicit simulation realisations without using proxy or approximation techniques

• The speed breakthrough is achieved by:

– proprietary algorithms

– polygonal gridding

– aggressive spatial coarsening and time stepping

• Fast history matching is achieved when the mismatch function (the difference between observed and calculated well rates and pressures) is accepted within error tolerance


• Philosophy



• Examples



Mismatch function calculated for > 90,000 realisations using

trajectory sampling showing > 15 distinct minima (history-matches)


Higher dimensional sampling

Each trend-line represents different history-match


History matching

Cross plots of kvkh, porosity and depth versus permeability for

best 800 history-matches

Conventional History-Match cannot distinguish between downside

and upside cases

Downside Case Upside Case


Geological sensitivities

Section showing upside and downside top structure

“Flex” between upside and downside structure maps



Stochastic Simulation showing degree of flexing between

Upside Case (-1.2) and Downside Case (0.4)



Most likely top structure is biased towards upside case


Geological sensitivities - Results

This project has been supported with assistance from the Australia Government through Commercialisation Australia.

To register your interest in ResAssure click here

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+61 (08) 9446 2099

[email protected]

www.stochasticsimulation.com


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ResAssure - The World’s Fastest Reservoir Simulator | A Revolution in Reserves Assurance and...

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Transcript of ResAssure - The World’s Fastest Reservoir Simulator | A Revolution in Reserves Assurance and...