Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw...
Transcript of Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw...
![Page 1: Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw bsc cba cfa cgo chl chr cmo coi cpt carve cri crz cvo cya dem 5 egb eic esp etl](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081409/6078832beee7616c8f6c0c43/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Requirements for monitoring methane from space:
What would we need to separate processes?
Julia Marshall, Tonatiuh Nuñez Ramirez The Climate Needs Space, Toulouse, 10-11 October, 2017
Max Planck Institutefor Biogeochemistry
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The importance of methane
• second-most important greenhouse gas that is modified by human activities
IPCC, AR5, 2013
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The importance of methane
• second-most important greenhouse gas that is modified by human activities
IPCC, AR5, 2013
![Page 4: Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw bsc cba cfa cgo chl chr cmo coi cpt carve cri crz cvo cya dem 5 egb eic esp etl](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081409/6078832beee7616c8f6c0c43/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Similar to the problem of CO2 in some ways…
• also tackled by top-down or inverse modelling
• also involves combined signals of anthropogenic and biogenic fluxes
• also requires a challengingly high measurement precision and accuracy
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GHG-CCI URD v2.1, Buchwitz et al., 2016
Current measurement requirements
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GHG-CCI URD v2.1, Buchwitz et al., 2016
Current measurement requirements
1 ppm/~400 ppm = .25%
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GHG-CCI URD v2.1, Buchwitz et al., 2016
Current measurement requirements
1 ppm/~400 ppm = .25%
9 ppb/~1800 ppb = .5%
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GHG-CCI URD v2.1, Buchwitz et al., 2016
Current measurement requirements
1 ppm/~400 ppm = .25%
9 ppb/~1800 ppb = .5%
0.2 ppm/~400 ppm = .05%
![Page 9: Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw bsc cba cfa cgo chl chr cmo coi cpt carve cri crz cvo cya dem 5 egb eic esp etl](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081409/6078832beee7616c8f6c0c43/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
GHG-CCI URD v2.1, Buchwitz et al., 2016
Current measurement requirements
1 ppm/~400 ppm = .25%
9 ppb/~1800 ppb = .5%
0.2 ppm/~400 ppm = .05%
1 ppb/~1800 ppb ≈ .05%
![Page 10: Requirements for monitoring methane from space: What would ...€¦ · bhd bik bkt bmw bme brz brw bsc cba cfa cgo chl chr cmo coi cpt carve cri crz cvo cya dem 5 egb eic esp etl](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081409/6078832beee7616c8f6c0c43/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Current measurement requirements
• 10 ppb “required measurement uncertainty” (2-σ value)
• 7 ppb/decade stability requirement
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High precision requirements are a function of the small gradients we are after
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In all cases:
• truly random error (noise) can be dealt with
• systematic errors (bias) result in erroneous flux estimation
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In all cases:
• truly random error (noise) can be dealt with
• systematic errors (bias) result in erroneous flux estimation
Requirement: Very low bias, reasonable precision
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Difference to CO2: Significant uncertainties in all contributing processes
• generally easier to solve for the total CH4 budget, and divide into processes based on bottom-up share per pixel
• separating the processes directly introduces more unknowns, and requires more constraints
from synthesis of Saunois et al., ESSD, 2016
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Another difference to CO2: Enigmatic recent changes in the growth rate
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Another difference to CO2: Enigmatic recent changes in the growth rate
??
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Another difference to CO2: Enigmatic recent changes in the growth rate
??
???
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Another difference to CO2: Enigmatic recent changes in the growth rate
??
???
!!!
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Separation of processes• we have information on the spatial distribution of
processes based on our bottom-up inventories and process models
Saunois et al., 2016
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The (somewhat) current observation network●
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CPT
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The (somewhat) current observation network
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ASC
ASK
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BRZ
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−180 −120 −60 0 60 120 180Longitude
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●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●Aircraft CARIBIC CONTRAIL GOSAT Ground station Ship transect Total Column UCI network
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The (somewhat) current observation network
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ABP
ALT
AMS
AMT
ARH
ASC
ASK
ATTO
AVI
AZV
AZR
BAL
BGU
BHD
BIK
BKT
BMEBMW
BRZ
BRW
BSC
CBAC
CFA
CGO
CHL
CHR
CMO COI
CPT
CARVE
CRI
CRZ
CVO
CYA
DEM
D
EGB
EIC
ESPETL
FIK
FSD
GLH
GMI
GOZ
GPA
GSN
HAT
HBA
H
HLE
HUN
ICE IGR
I
ITN
IZO
J
K34/TT34
KAS
KEY
KRS
KUM
KZD KZM
LAU
LEF
LLB
LLN
LMP
LPOL/K
MAA
MBC
MEX
MHD
MID
MKN
MLOMNM
MQA
NAT
N
NMB/NAM
NMY
NWR
NZL
OPW X
PAL
PBL
PDM
PON
PRS
PSA
PTA
P
RPB
RYOSDZ
SEY
SGI
SGP
SHM
SISSIS
SMO
A
SPO
S
STMSUM
SUV
SYO
TAP
TDF
TER
THD
TIK
TKB
TLL
T
TTA
USH
UTAUUM
VGNVKV
WISWKTWLG
WSA
YAK
YON
ZEP
ZOTTO
Z
ASC
BIK
DWN
IZOJPLJPL
K
SGP
LAULAU
OLEF
CAL
RUN
SAG
SKY
WLG
ARH
B
EUK
IZO
J
KIR
LAU
MLO
RUN
THU
TOT Z
BSL
BSLBSL
POC
POC
POC
POCSCS
WPC
WPC
AIA
AOA
AFL
FTLMAN
PIP
RBASAN
SRG
TAB
DRP
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
90
−180 −120 −60 0 60 120 180Longitude
Latit
ude
●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●●Aircraft CARIBIC CONTRAIL GOSAT Ground station Ship transect Total Column UCI network
Requirement: Well-calibrated long-term surface measurements of methane
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Satellite measurements of methane with sensitivity in the lower troposphere up to now:
• SCIAMACHY on Envisat (2002-2012, sensor degradation after 2005)
• TANSO-FTS on GOSAT (2009-present
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A note about thermal infrared sounders:
• AIRS, IASI, and TES offer long records with good spatial coverage
• the sensitivity of the thermal infrared sounders to the upper troposphere limits their application in flux inversion
Worden et al., AMT, 2015
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SCIAMACHY: SCanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric CHartographY
• despite poor precision, systematic errors, and sensor degradation, it provided new insight into methane fluxes (e.g. Bergamaschi et al., 2009 and 2013; Bousquet et al., 2011; Houweling et al., 2014)
• could detect hotspot emission regions with sufficient averaging…
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data from 2004, 0.5˚ binning, Buchwitz et al., ACP, 2017
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GOSAT offers better precision, but poorer coverage
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GOSAT offers better precision, but poorer coverage
“full physics” retrieval has lots of gaps in regions with
high cloud cover, aerosol load, andsolar zenith angles
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GOSAT offers better precision, but poorer coverage
so-called “proxy” retrieval solves for the ratio of XCH4:XCO2, and
multiplies it by a (better known) modelled XCO2 value
“full physics” retrieval has lots of gaps in regions with
high cloud cover, aerosol load, andsolar zenith angles
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Sentinel-5P (launching on Friday!) will provide a huge increase in coverage
being encapsulated into its fairings on October 3, 2017(Credits: ESA–Stephane Corvaja, 2017)
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Sentinel-5P
• 7 km x 7 km spatial resolution (compare to 30 km x 60 km for SCIAMACHY, 10 km diameter for GOSAT)
• 2600 km swath
• daily global coverage (minus the clouds…)
• also measuring CO, O3, NO2, SO2 (but not CO2)
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What this means for a simulated 500 kTCH4 point source:
courtesy H. Bovensmann, IUP-Bremen
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What this means for a simulated 500 kTCH4 point source:
courtesy H. Bovensmann, IUP-Bremen
Requirement: High spatial resolution for detection of spatial patterns of fluxes
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Difficulties can still arise when fluxes are co-located
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Other tracers provide us with information about these processes:
Ethane, C2H6
• most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon after methane
• primary sources are fossil fuels, biomass burning, and biofuels
Simpson et al., Nature, 2012
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What ethane tells us• comparison of
short-lived ethane to methane growth rate suggests at least 30-70% of the slow-down was due to reduced fugitive emissions
Simpson et al., Nature, 2012
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What ethane tells us
• ground-based total- column measurements from northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere suggest increase after 2007 was largely due to fossil fuel emissions increase
Hausmann et al., ACP, 2016
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Other tracers provide us with further information about these processes:
stable isotopologue δ13CH4
• expresses ratio of 13C/12C-ratio in atmospheric CH4 in δ-notation relative to VPDB-standard
• different source types have distinct signatures
• there is significant uncertainty on these signatures, however
Schwietzke et al., Nature, 2016
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Other tracers provide us with further information about these processes:
stable isotopologue δ13CH4
• expresses ratio of 13C/12C-ratio in atmospheric CH4 in δ-notation relative to VPDB-standard
• different source types have distinct signatures
• there is significant uncertainty on these signatures, however
Schwietzke et al., Nature, 2016
very depleted microbial signature
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• one interpretation of these data (in a one-box model) suggests that the recent increase is driven by (depleted) microbial sources
• this is attributed to agriculture
Schaefer et al., Science, 2016
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Nisbet et al., GBC, 2016
• the same data were simultaneously published as being indicative of climate-related increases in tropical wetland emissions
• a cow’s stomach is a bit like a wetland, isotopically speaking
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• while others argue for a redistribution of the budget, and a decrease in fossil sources along with a microbial increase, contrary to the ethane data
Schwietzke et al., Nature, 2016
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Ideally these pieces of information could be combined to provide a consistent answer…
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Why is this so unclear?
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AMT
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ASC
ASK
AZR
BAL
BHD
BKT
BMW
BRW
BSC
CBA
CGOCRZ
CVO
EGB
EIC
GMI
HBA
HPB/ZUG
ICE
IZO
JFJ/RIG
KEYKUM
LEF
LLB
MEX
MHD
MID
MKN
MLO
NAT
OXK
PAL
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MLO
NAM
NMY
NWR
OPW OXK
RMI
SIS
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• these supporting measurements are sparse, especially in the tropics
• uncertainties on the regional distribution of source signatures remains
δ13CH4
C2H6
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Why is this so unclear?
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AMT
ARH
ASC
ASK
AZR
BAL
BHD
BKT
BMW
BRW
BSC
CBA
CGOCRZ
CVO
EGB
EIC
GMI
HBA
HPB/ZUG
ICE
IZO
JFJ/RIG
KEYKUM
LEF
LLB
MEX
MHD
MID
MKN
MLO
NAT
OXK
PAL
PCO
BSL
BSLBSL
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BRW
CBA
CGO
CVO
FSD
IZO
KUM
LLB
MDO
MEX
MHD
MLO
NAM
NMY
NWR
OPW OXK
RMI
SIS
SMO
SPO
SUM
SUV
TAPWLG
ZEP
ZOTTO301
BSL
BSLBSL
WPC
WPC
SRG
−90
−60
−30
0
30
60
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−180 −120 −60 0 60 120 180Longitude
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• these supporting measurements are sparse, especially in the tropics
• uncertainties on the regional distribution of source signatures remains
δ13CH4
C2H6
Requirement: globally distributed sampling of related tracers
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But also methane measurements are sparse in some regions
• persistent tropical clouds make satellite measurements difficult during much of the year
• requirement of sunlight limits high latitude measurements seasonally
• here an active lidar sensor (like MERLIN) with a footprint of only ~100 m and its own radiation source can provide much-needed low-bias data
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Unknowns in the Arctic: wetland emissions during the zero curtain (and beyond)
Mastepanov et al., Nature, 2008
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MERLIN: Polar-orbiting active sensor will offer data at all latitudes over the whole year
Ehret et al., Remote Sensing, 2017 (accepted)
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Satellite/Instrument XCO2 XCH4 IFOV ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Envisat/SCIAMACHY ✓ ✓ 30 km x 60 km
GOSAT/TANSO-FTS ✓ ✓ 10.5 km (D)
OCO-2 ✓ 1.25 km x 2.26 km
TanSat ✓ 1 km x 2 km
Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI ✓ 7 km x 7 km
Gao Fen-5 ✓ ✓ 10 km (D)
GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS ✓ ✓ 9.7 km (D)
FengYun-3D ✓ ✓ 10 km (D)
OCO-3 ✓ ~2 km x 2 km
MicroCarb ✓ 4.5 km x 9 km
MERLIN ✓ 100 m x ~50 km
Sentinel-5 (a, b, c) ✓ ✓ 7 km x 7 km
GeoCARB ✓ ✓ ~10 km x 10 km
Sentinel-7 ✓ ✓ ~2 km x 2 km
year
The future from space looks promising…
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Satellite/Instrument XCO2 XCH4 IFOV ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Envisat/SCIAMACHY ✓ ✓ 30 km x 60 km
GOSAT/TANSO-FTS ✓ ✓ 10.5 km (D)
OCO-2 ✓ 1.25 km x 2.26 km
TanSat ✓ 1 km x 2 km
Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI ✓ 7 km x 7 km
Gao Fen-5 ✓ ✓ 10 km (D)
GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS ✓ ✓ 9.7 km (D)
FengYun-3D ✓ ✓ 10 km (D)
OCO-3 ✓ ~2 km x 2 km
MicroCarb ✓ 4.5 km x 9 km
MERLIN ✓ 100 m x ~50 km
Sentinel-5 (a, b, c) ✓ ✓ 7 km x 7 km
GeoCARB ✓ ✓ ~10 km x 10 km
Sentinel-7 ✓ ✓ ~2 km x 2 km
year
The future from space looks promising…
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Provided the following requirements are met:
• satellite data with low bias and reasonable precision
• maintenance of well-calibrated surface measurements
• high spatial resolution for imaging/separation of flux patterns
• active sensors for low bias coverage at high latitudes and in cloudy regions
• expansion of supplemental tracer measurements (ethane, isotopes)
• improvement of stratospheric representation in models
• a proxy for the hydroxy radical sink going forward( )