Requirements for Geospatial Agent Simulation to Strengthen the 'Property-Powered Rail' Open...

Two New Uses for Payments Data inApplied Geographical Economics

Micro and Macro Examples

Joseph PotvinChair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI)

Founding Editor, The FLOW SyllabusPresident, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.)

Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc.Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group

Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART)Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management)

[email protected]

Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.

Open SourceGeospatial Foundation

OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau

A Quick Introduction

● Joseph Potvin● Doctoral Candidate, U Québec (DBA, Project Management) ● M.Phil., Cambridge UK (Geographical Economics)● Hon BA, McGill (Economics);● Chair, Management Education Working Group,

Open Source Initiative (Editor: “The FLOW Syllabus”);● Private sector work in 20 countries;● Six years on staff at Treasury Board Secretariat (expenditure

analysis, strategic business design & cost control);● Previously contracted to various parts of The World Bank, and

of sections of the International Development Research Centre;● Economist on drafting team for “Canada's Green Plan” (1990),

(new fiscal instruments for ecological economics; extension of national accounts on ecosystem integrity, resource availability.

A Quick Introduction

The Free/Libre/Open Way (FLOW)

A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model

Dual Purpose:– Return on investment optimization in strategically

located commercial and residential property;

– Self-financing development of metropolitan transit systems and services based on unconstrained demand for metropolitan-scale mobility, and the market value of naturally constrained supply of property within walking distance of stations.

A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais:Systems & Enterprises Inc.

● A federally-incorporated commercial firm (est. 2011);● Mission: To organize a consortium to bring about and operate a

region-wide private-sector passenger railway service on 400 km of existing railway in the Greater National Capital Region, based on the Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model.

Project 125 ● Identify property within walking distance of operational railway

lines throughout Canada's Greater National Capital Region with potential for sustainable increases in revenue/asset value of at least 25 per cent as a verifiable result of direct access to integrated metropolitan-scale passenger railway services.

A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

“Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to use multiple payment instruments”

A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects;

● A project-centric agent-based computational economics research model to explore the potential for resolving some systemic problems by enabling choice in the six essential attributes of contractual payment.

● Value-in-Exchange Benchmark Choices– Spot Currency Exchange Index (WM Reuters);– World Price Index (W. Coats);– Primary Commodities Index (B. Graham, N. Kaldor, L. Ussher, et.al.);– Global Equities Index (W. Engels, R. Pringle); – Earth Reserve Index (J. Potvin).

Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet

Real Property Value OptimizationAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model

ConsortiumAgreement

Supplier(e.g. fuel,

Internet, etc.)

Operatingsupplies

Rail Access

Leases

Equipment& operation

Fees

Advice analysis & assistance

Fees

Train operators

Rail access rights holders

Professionalservice firms

Marketing

Expenses

EngineeringTransitanalysis

Cost-Effectiveness(Operational Expenses)

The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model

CC-BY 4.0

ConsortiumAgreement

Investmentsand loans

Being partof the

solution

Negotiatedobligations

Municipal &Regional

governments

Memberfees

Privateinvestors& lenders

Affinity club

members

Return on Investment(Public/Private/Community Capital)

Achievement ofdevelopment

objectives

Loan Guaranteesand Grants

Aligneddecisions


CC-BY 4.0

AlignedDecisions

Fed-Prov/State

governments

ConsortiumAgreement

Investmentsand loans

Being partof the

solution

Negotiatedobligations

Municipal &Regional

governments

Memberfees

Privateinvestors& lenders

Affinity club

members

Return on Investment(Public/Private/Community Capital)

Achievement ofdevelopment

objectives

Loan Guaranteesand Grants

Aligneddecisions


CC-BY 4.0

AlignedDecisions

Fed-Prov/State

governments

Required from Government:Aligned Decisions, Not Money

ConsortiumAgreement

Negotiated revenue

Comfortablesafe, practicaltransportationStatistical

increasein market

value

Negotiatedrevenue

Businessopportunity

Station

owners

Travellers

Day trippers

Frequent travellers

Land/Propertyowners &

developers

Kiosk/Site provider

Partnerentities

Passengerexperience

services

Services

Packagetransport

links

Ancillaryservice

providers

Marketable information

services

Food & beverage

i

Service sales

Value-for-Money(Operating Revenue)

License &Validation

Businessopportunity

Negotiated revenue

Negotiatedrevenue

Research& planning

clients

FeesInsight

Pay what you want

Enhanced travelexperience


CC-BY 4.0

ConsortiumAgreement

Negotiated revenue

Comfortablesafe, practicaltransportationStatistical

increasein market

value

Negotiatedrevenue

Businessopportunity

Station

owners

Travellers

Day trippers

Frequent travellers

Land/Propertyowners &

developers

Kiosk/Site provider

Partnerentities

Passengerexperience

services

Services

Packagetransport

links

Ancillaryservice

providers

Marketable information

services

Food & beverage

i

Service sales

Value-for-Money(Operating Revenue)

License &Validation

Businessopportunity

Negotiated revenue

Negotiatedrevenue

Research& planning

clients

FeesInsight

Pay what you want

Enhanced travelexperience


CC-BY 4.0

25% + increasein market

value

Source: Robert Dorion, P.Eng., MBAPresident, Knowledge ManagementResearch, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group Limited

Placement of StationsAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

● Demand for mobility relatively high;● Supply of property “within walking distance”

of a limited number of railway stations relatively low;● Data show value effect between –10% and +35%; ● Both commercial and residential properties; ● Stations can be located where income & asset values

would likely increase by at least +25%;− Based on market analysis;− Assuming normal business risk;− Contingent on all usual governance rules, processes.

Placement of StationsAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

● Value linkage greatest when railway development and property development are fully integrated;

● Price competition begins with announcement that a station will be developed, in anticipation of service;

● Owners earn more, even if they never use the train; ● Percentage of value increase allocated to a

“train-stopping fee” in the consortium agreement;● The consortium of property owners run their own

railway business: THEY determine the optimal fee;● Requires optimization modeling.

REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent SimulationFREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION

SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE

● Multi-Agent Transport Simulationhttp://www.matsim.org/

http://www.matsim.org/

REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent SimulationFREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION

SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE

● Multi-Agent Transport Simulationhttp://www.matsim.org/

● New Requirement: Add extensions for propertyvalue effects and optimization analysis based on empirical data from the regional market and from comparison markets.

http://www.matsim.org/

REQ: Geospatial Mobility DataFREE/LIBRE/OPEN DATA + STRUCTURED MANAGEMENT

● Whole-region anonymous travel data from mobile devices– Live data streaming via the WAZE platform

http://www.waze.com/livemap/

– Historical data on main transportation arteries purchased from participating telecom companies (?)

– Disclosure Control Resource Centre, Statistics Canadahttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/12-539-x/2009001/control-controle-eng.htm

– TravelR for ad hoc travel demand modelinghttps://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/travelr/

● Polarsys for Long-Term Life-Cycle Managementhttp://polarsys.org/

Lieu de l'événement :Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO), Pavillon C, Salle C0072283, boul Alexandre-Taché, Gatineau, Québec

http://openrailproperty.org

GREENING TRANSIT

Real Trains, Real Tracks, Real PropertyAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS

Montebello, QC

Arnprior ON

La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)

Bristol, QC

Montebello, QC

Arnprior ON

Smiths Falls, ON


Alexandria, ON

The Greater National Capital Region400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE

Montebello, QC

Arnprior ON


Bristol, QC

Montebello, QC

Arnprior ON

Smiths Falls, ON


Alexandria, ON

The Greater National Capital Region400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY + OTTAWA LRT (STAGES 1&2)

Montebello, QC

Arnprior ONCasselman

Smiths Falls, ON


UQO/TachéLac Leamy Gréber

Lorrain

Navan

March Rd.

TerryFox

Freeman

Urban Ottawa-Gatineau

Rural & Semi-Rural

ChelseaMasson

ThursoPlaisance

PapineauvilleFarm Point

VarsLimoges

Kinburn

FitzroyQuyon

Blair

Maxville

Alexandria, ON

BellsCorners

BarrhavenRichmond

Bristol, QC

Tunney's GreenboroMerivale

TremblayCarletonBayview

The Greater National Capital RegionWHERE DO YOU LIVE? WORK? PLAY?

PAYMENTS DATAFrom Geographical MicroeconomicsTo Geographical Macroeconomics

Tweaking the Global Payments SystemAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

“Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to use multiple payment instruments”

Est. October 2014

Tweaking the Global Payments SystemAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

“Discuss, research, prototype, create working systems... that allow people on the Web to send each other money

as easily as they exchange instant messages and email today”

Choice in All Attributes of PaymentAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects;

● Algorithmic pricing withchoice of value benchmark

● Earth Reserve benchmark● Free/libre/open software: ERA-ART

– Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA)

– l'Archétype d'une réserve de la terre (ART)

Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet“work in progress”

We're accustomed to perceiving country boundaries this way

The geography of each country is reallydefined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone”

The geospatial boundaries of countries extend 200 nautical miles beyond their shorelines.

The geography of each country is reallydefined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone”

Source: http://td-architects.eu/projects/show/exclusive-economic-zone/

We're accustomed to perceiving national currencies this way

Source: http://i.imgur.com/LIRDh.jpg

Example: Italy 2010 Imports

Darker shade means greaterproportion ofIntermediary'scurrency in trade

The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships.

43.4% Intermediary's currency36.6% Importer's currency (€)20.0% Exporter's currency

Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade"https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70

Example: Italy 2010 Exports



19.6% Intermediary's currency7.7% Importer's currency72.2% Exporter's currency (€)





Let's use the geospatial density of currencyas a meaningful weighting factor for...

Attribution for Frequency & Severity ofSurface Temperature Anomalies

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/

Attribution for Positive & NegativeTrends in Major Pollutants

Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/

ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Changewith Global Economic Activity, By Currency

The Earth Reserve System uses currency composition of trade as a weighting factor to proportionately attribute biophysical changes in global ecosystem integrity, in a particular way, to the economic activity paid in each currency.

Example: Near Infrared Reflectivity. Changes to remote sensing data on surface thermal reflectivity in Band 4 (Near Infrared 0.77-0.90 µm) reveal changes to biomass content.




Challenge: How might we representthe distributional density of multiplecurrencies at the same time? $ €

¥

C.M.Y.K0.30.80.0

Sou

rce:

http

://co

mm

ons.

wik

imed

ia.o

rg/w

iki/F

ile:F

arbk

reis

_mit_

CM

YK

-Wer

ten.

svg

ERA-ARTsoftware will use BIS or IMF data on global payments (currency of invoicing) density tomaintain EEZ-bounded frequencydistributions as relative weights 0-100.

Also, visuallyillustrate up to three currencies at a time: Assign C,M,YK ≡ all others

0.30.80.0

0 30

080

ERA-ARTHypothetical

4-Currency ModelC, M, Y and

K≡All Others)(Note: This map's colourswere assigned randomly.)

€ ¥ $ ¤

Exclusive Economic Zones

Scientifically Verifiable DataOn Ecosystems & Resources

Currency Weighting System for the Earth Reserve Value Benchmark

Auditable Data on theCurrency of Payments


Choice in All Attributes of PaymentAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS

● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization toMacroeconomic Emergent Effects;

● Relative resource/ecosystemdegradation in a given currency's region of use, compared with the base year, will cause prices in that currency to become moreexpensive against prices in other currencies.

● In general, jobs and export-oriented investment will be attracted towards currency zones where ecosystem integrity and resource availability are relatively improved from a base year.

Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet“work in progress”

CONNECTINGGeographical Macroeconomics

&Geographical Microeconomics

Adapted from land-use map

supplied by the National Capital Commission (NCC)

Adapté d'une carte fournis par la Commission de lacapitale nationale (CCN)

Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO

One Double-Deck Railway Coach:● 75 cars reduced from the roads (100 seated people)● 60 km return semi-rural terminus to downtown● 120 grams of carbon emission per km car traveller

(× 1/1,000,000 because 1 metric tonne is a million grams)● 60 grams of carbon emission per km per diesel train traveller (× 1/1,000,000)


75×60×(120-60)× 1/1,000,000 = 0.27 tonnes

● More than a quarter tonne of net carbon emission reduction per coach, per trip between each semi-rural terminus and downtown Ottawa/Gatineau.


18 return trips per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm)

● 0.27×18 = 5 tonnes carbon emission reduction.

...that's per coach, per day!


3 coaches minimum per train18 trains per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm)

● 5×3 = 15 tonnes carbon reduction.

...that's per line, per day!


6 lines radiate from downtown Ottawa/Gatineau

● 15×6 = 90 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per day for a 30 km radius from downtown.

That's more than theweight capacity of three 20' shipping containers.


250 working days per year, 25 km radius

90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.

... not counting weekends & holidays.



90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.

The largest Canadian containership can carry up to 19,500 tonnes, by comparison.

The Oceanex Connaigra


Suppose these trains are running half empty...


22,500×(1/2) = 11,250 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.

... still, not counting weekends & holidays.


Suppose these trains are running full capacity...


22,500×(1.5) = 33,750 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.

$20 per tonne carbon offset price gives: $675,000


Two New Uses for Payments Data inApplied Geographical Economics

Micro and Macro Examples

Joseph PotvinChair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI)

Founding Editor, The FLOW SyllabusPresident, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.)

Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc.Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group

Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART)Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management)

[email protected]

Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.

Open SourceGeospatial Foundation

OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau

Requirements for Geospatial Agent Simulation to Strengthen the 'Property-Powered Rail' Open...

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