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REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - ujd.gov.rs presentation June 2018.… · Serbia at a Glance Key Facts...
Transcript of REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - ujd.gov.rs presentation June 2018.… · Serbia at a Glance Key Facts...
Ministry of Finance
INVESTOR PRESENTATION JUNE 2018
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
1. Republic of Serbia – Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Serbia at a Glance
Key Facts
Resilient economy on the path to full integration with Europe
Form of Government: Parliamentary Republic
Territory: 88,361 sq. km
Capital: Belgrade
Population: 7.0 million(1,2)
GDP per capita: EUR 5.386 (1,2)
Nominal GDP: EUR 37.7bn (1,2,3)
Credit ratings: BB/BB/Ba3
Currency: Serbian Dinar (RSD)
Current exchange rate: EUR/RSD = 118.1476 (3)
USD/RSD = 102.2126 (3)
Vilnius
EU Non-EU
SERBIA
Nis
Kragujevac
Novi Sad
Belgrade
1 National Statistics Office as of 2017, Minstry of finance as of 2017, 2 Excluding Kosovo and Metohija, 3 NBS as of 26 June 2018
Recent Milestones and Progress to EU accession
20082006 2009 20112012
EU candidate
status awarded
3
Jan
2014
Dec
2015
Serbia opened
chapters 32 and 35
in the process of
EU accession
July
2016
Serbia opened
chapters 23 and 24 in
the process of EU
accession
Dec
2016
Serbia opened
chapters 5 and 25
in the process of
EU accession
Feb
2017June
2017
Serbia opened
chapters 20 and 26
in the process of EU
accession
Serbia opened
chapters 7 and 29 in
the process of EU
accession
Dec
2017
Serbia opened
chapters 6 and
30 in the
process of EU
accession
Serbia started EU
accession
negotiations
June
2018
Serbia opened
chapters 13 and 33
in the process of EU
accession
June-18 June-17 Change June-18 June-17 Change June-18 Change
Serbia BB BB- BB BB- Ba3
Bulgaria BBB- BB+ BBB BBB- Baa2 no change
Croatia BB+ BB+ no change BB+ BB+ no change Ba2 no change
Hungary BBB- BBB- no change BBB- BBB- no change Baa3 no change
Romania BBB- BBB- no change BBB- BBB- no change Baa3 no change
Latvia A- A- no change A- A- no change A3 no change
Lithuania A A- A- A- no change A3 no change
Serbia’s Rating In Comparative Perspective
Credit Rating History
Standard and Poor's – In June 2018, Standard and Poor's kept the credit rating of the Republic of Serbia at the level of BB, with the positive outlook for
improving the credit rating. According to the Standard and Poor's the Serbian economy is likely to expand in 2018-2019 with average rates of 3% or
higher, driven by stronger private sector consumption supported by expanding employment, wage growth, and a stable inflow of worker remittances. In
the light of macroeconomic stabilization and higher investor confidence, higher inflow of FDI is also expected to boost economic growth.
Fitch Ratings – In June 2018, Fitch Ratings has left unchanged the Republic of Serbia long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings at level 'BB'. The outlook is stable. Serbia's ratings are supported by strong governance, human development and ease of doing business
indicators, as well as a strengthened economic policy framework that has increased confidence that macroeconomic fundamentals have improved.
According to Fitch, Serbia is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019. Investment and household consumption, supported by positive
developments in the labour market, are expected to be the main drivers of growth for 2018-2019.
Moody's – In March 2017, Moody’s rating agency has upgraded Serbia’s credit rating to Ba3. The outlook has been revised to stable. Moody’s decision
to raise Serbia’s credit rating reflects primarily the successful implementation of the fiscal consolidation program and structural reforms, as well as
improved economic growth prospects, recovery in exports, the price stability and further opening of EU accession chapters.
4
1. Republic of Serbia – Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Exports Have Been A Major Driver Of Economic Growth
Source: National Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance
Source: Eurostat
Real GDP Growth (Y-o-Y)
Real GDP Growth 2011 – 2017 (Y-o-Y)
• In 2016 and 2017 the Republic of Serbia marked 2.8% and 1.9% GDP
growth, respectively, while estimated growth for 2018 is 3.5%.
• GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% y-o-y in Q1 2018, on the back of robust
investment activity - both private and government.
• In the first four months of 2018 exports of goods increased by 7.5% in
value terms over the corresponding 2017 period, while imports of goods
increased by 13.5%.
• Exports of reproduction products in the first four months of 2018 had the
leading 58.2% share followed by consumer goods 31.1%, and equipment
10.7% share.
• In the first four months of 2018 the export-import ratio was on the level of
75.1%, while in 2017 was 79.3%.
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia
Exports of Goods – Nominal Growth (Y-o-Y)
6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Serbia
Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Hungary
*Preliminary Data
3.8%
26.0%
1.4%
7.8%
11.5%13.1%
7.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18
33.4
31.7
34.3
33.3
32.9
34.137.7
1.4%
-1.0%
2.6%
-1.8% 0,7%
2.8%1.9%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP, EUR bn GDP growth rate
External Position
Exchange Rate USD/RSD (May 2017 – May 2018)Exchange rate EUR/RSD (May 2017 – May 2018)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Bank of Serbia
• At the end of May 2018 Serbia had a level of FX reserves at EUR
10.8bn (about 6 months of imports coverage) and net reserves at EUR
9.1bn which provide a good cushion for the Serbian external position
• At the end of December 2017 external debt stood at EUR 25.7bn,
including private sector external debt of EUR 11.8bn
• During 2016 and 2017 EUR/RSD exchange rate showed limited
volatility. In 2016 and 2017 the average exchange rate EUR/RSD was
123.1 and 121.3 respectively, while in the first five months of 2018 the
average exchange rate EUR/RSD was 118.3
Foreign Exchange Reserves (mln EUR)
7
10.9
11.2
9.9
10.4
10.8
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 May-18
110.0
112.0
114.0
116.0
118.0
120.0
122.0
124.0
126.0
85.0
88.0
91.0
94.0
97.0
100.0
103.0
106.0
109.0
112.0
115.0
118.0
121.0
Trade Balance
Balance of Payments (% of GDP)
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Statistics Office
Trade Deficit (% of GDP)
Source: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia
*Estimated
External Trade as (% of GDP)
• Current account deficit in 2017 reached 5.7% of GDP, due to imports
of capital and intermediate goods related to investment activity, as well
as due to supply-side shocks in energy sector and agriculture. In 2018
it is expected CAD share in GDP to remain on the same level as in
2017
• In the medium term, it is expected the CAD deficit to be around 4-5%
of GDP and to be fully covered by the FDIs
• Strong FDI inflows in export-oriented sectors, will stay more than
sufficient to cover the CAD. In the first four months of 2018 net FDI
inflow amounted EUR 870mn (+12.7% y-o-y). Inflows were mostly
concentrated in export industries.
8
5.9
4.5 4.3 4.4 4.0
3.8
1.7
18.8%
13.0% 13.0% 13.3%11.6% 11.1% 13.5%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18
Trade deficit (EUR bn) Trade deficit (% of GDP)
-6.0%
-3.7% -3.1%-5.7%
-5.7%
3.7%5.4% 5.5% 6.6% 6.2%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Net FDI Current Account
32.1% 33.6%36.6%
39.4% 40.1% 40.8%
45.1% 46.8%49.8% 51.0% 51.2%
54.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18
Export Import
Serbia’s Exports and Imports in Jan-April 2018
Import of Goods
Import of GoodsExport of Goods
Source: National Statistics OfficeSource: National Statistics Office
Export of Goods
Source: National Statistics Office
*Western Balkan countries + Moldova = parties to CEFTA
**Mediterranean countries in the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership
Source: National Statistics Office
*Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation,
**Commonwealth of Independent States.
9
54%
13%
12%
21% EU
WBCs*
MEDA**
Other
49%
18%
9%
24% EU
APEC*
CIS**
Other
14%
15%
8%
6%
5%5%
48%
Italy
Germany
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Russian Federation
Romania
Montenegro
Others
14%
11%
10%
9%
6%4%
46%
Germany
Italy
Russian Federation
China
Hungary
Turkey, Republic of
Others
…And By Types Of Products
Source: National Statistics Office
Export Jan-April 2018 (FOB) Import Jan-April 2018 (CIF)
Source: National Statistics Office
External Trade as % GDP
• Serbia’s exports are reasonably diversified, covering the full range of
products from intermediate inputs, to consumer and capital goods
• This confirms that Serbia is already being integrated into the
European trade system and is able to export goods to multinational
companies operating in the global supply chain
• Intermediate and capital goods have been the fastest growing export
product categories in period 2011-2017, one of the positive results of
the direct foreign investment that Serbia has attracted in recent years
due to the Government of Serbia subsidy program
Source: National Statistics Office
10
2%
40%
25%
6%
21%
6%
Energy
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Durable consumer goods
Non durable consumer goods
Unclassified by MIG destination
10%
36%
21%
2%
15%
16%Energy
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Durable consumer goods
Non durable consumer goods
Unclassified by MIG destination
32.1% 33.6%36.6%
39.4% 40.1% 40.8%
45.1% 46.8%49.8% 51.0% 51.2%
54.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18
Export Import
Foreign Direct Investments
Net FDI Diversification by Geography (2017)
Net FDI Diversification by Sector (2017)Net Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn)
• NFDI’s in 2017 reached the level of EUR 2.4bn. The FDI/CAD
coverage for 2016 stood at 135.8%. The biggest FDIs were in
manufacturing sector (motor vehicles, base metals, rubber and
plastic, pharmaceuticals and chemicals), financial sector,
construction, retail trade sector, telecommunication and IT sector
• Estimated level of NFDI’s for 2018 is revised up and stands at EUR
2.6bn. FDI projection for the coming years also envisages full
coverage of CAD
• Serbia improved the position on the World Bank’s Doing Business
List 2018 and ranked at the 43rd position in comparison to previous
47th in 2017 (among the ten most improved countries)
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Statistics Office; National Bank of SerbiaSource: National Statistics Office, National Bank of Serbia
*2012 data affected by Telekom Srbija’s buyback of its Treasury shares from OTE (EUR 380m)
**Estimated
11
22.7%
10.8%
14.1%
10.7%
18.6%
2.9%
6.4%
13.8%
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Construction
Real estate activities
Financial intermediation
Professional, scientific andtechnical activities
Information andcommunication
Other
0.7
1.31.2
1.81.9
2.42.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2012* 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018**
491
251209 196 184
134 132 130 126 108 103
410
100
200
300
400
500
600
mil EUR
Inflation in the Target Band from the begining of 2018
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
• Inflation has been moving below the target tolerance band since March
2014 mainly due to movements in food and oil prices
• From the begining of the 2017 inflation has moved within the target
tolerance band, and it is expected to stay in the period ahead. Core
inflation is low, amounting 2.1% in May 2018
• During 2015, the NBS gradually reduced its key policy rate (KPR) by
350 bps and at the end of December 2015 KPR was at the level of
4.50%, during 2016 NBS reduced KPR for additional 50 bps to the level
of 4.00% in July 2016, meanwhile in 2017 NBS reduced KPR for
additional 50 bps in September and October to the level of 3.50%. In
2018 NBS reduced KPR to the level of 3.00%, in March and April 2018
• NBS reduced inflation target to the level of 3.00%±1.50% (starting from
January 2017)
Y-o-Y Inflation eop Key Policy Rate and Money Supply
Contribution of CPI Components to Y-o-Y Inflation (%)
12
-5
0
5
Services Energy
Industrial goods excluding food and energy Processed food
Unprocessed Food
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0% Key Policy Rate (left axis) M2 (YoY) (right axis)
7.0%
12.2%
2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6%3.0%
2.1%0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18
1. Republic of Serbia - Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Banking Sector Overview
Source: National Bank of Serbia
*latest available comparable data, Q4 2017
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Asset Structure
Liabilities and Capital Structure
Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Banking Sector
14
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
*latest available comparable data, Q4 2017
57%
17%
13%
6%2%
5%
Loans and receivables fromclients
Financial assets available forsale
Currency and deposits withthe central bank
Loans and receivables frombanks and other financialorganisationsFixed assets
11%
66%
1%
12%
6%
3%
1%
Deposits to banks, OFO and thecentral bank
Deposits to other customers
Subordinated liabilities
Share capital and other capital
Reserves and unrealised losses
Profit
Other
Liabilities 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18
I. Foreign Liabilities 14.7% 10.5% 9.1% 7.8% 8.60% 9.28%
II. Government depostis 7.3% 8.0% 7.3% 6.6% 7.40% 8.00%
III. Currency in circulation 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.20% 3.28%
IV. RSD deposits 10.8% 11.6% 13.0% 14.2% 15.00% 15.83%
V. FX deposits 29.7% 29.9% 29.9% 30.4% 31.40% 30.93%
VI. Other Liabilities 34.4% 37.0% 37.5% 37.5% 34.40% 32.68%
Total Liabilities (EUR bn) 34.4 34.6 35.7 37.2 38.1 39.3
Assets 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18
I. Foreign Assets 36.2% 35.2% 34.1% 33.1% 31.80% 32.38%
Of which NBS 32.8% 28.9% 29.3% 27.8% 26.90% 27.96%
II. Domestic credit 56.% 56.9% 58.1% 58.5% 60.00% 59.65%
of which Government 8.6% 10.9% 12.4% 14.0% 14.00% 14.25%
of which Companies 25.7% 23.2% 22.9% 22.1% 22.30% 21.82%
of which Households 17.1% 17.3% 17.5% 18.4% 20.10% 20.52%
Others 4.6% 5.5% 5.3% 4.0% 3.60% 3.07%
III. Other Assets 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.4% 8.20% 7.97%
Total Assets (EUR bn) 34.4 34.6 35.7 37.2 38.1 39.3
A Strong Capital Cushion Offsets Relatively High NPLs
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Source: National Bank of Serbia
Credit Growth Y-o-Y
Capital Adequacy Ratio and NPL’s (%)
Banking Sector Ownership by Assets (Q3, 2017)
15
• At the end of April 2018 CAR stands at high level of 22.7%
• NPLs are fully covered by balance sheet loan loss reserves. IFRS
provision (61.4% in April 2018) cover more than half of NPLs. Among
others, NBS regulatory measures allow the sale of NPLs to non
financial entities and better tax treatment on restructured debt
• The share of NPLs has a downward trend - at February 2018 it stood
at 8.8%, 13.4% pp lower since NPL Resolution Strategy was adopted
• Liquidity ratio of the banking system is higher than the regulatory limit
(2.2 in April 2018) and liquid assets represent 36.8% of total assets
at the end of April 2018
• The loan to deposit ratio for the banking sector remains on a
conservative low level 0.9 in April 2018
21.4% 21.5% 21.6%
17.0%
11.9%
8.8%
20.9%20.0%
20.9%21.8% 22.5% 22.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18
NPL's CAR
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%Loans to households
Loans to enterprises
Total loans12.5%
27.9%
9.9%10.6%
14.9%
24.2% Austria
Italy
Greece
France
Other foreign banks
Domesticaly owned banks
1. Republic of Serbia - Overview
4. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management Strategy
3. Banking Sector
2. Macroeconomic Background
Fiscal Policy Measures
Fiscal consolidation measures and structural changes for 2018:
– Reform of tax administration and public revenue system
– Reform of public enterprises
– Public administration reform and rightsizing
– Improvement of capital expenditure planning and realization
– Business environment improvement
• Eight successful IMF program reviews during period 2015 – 2017
• General Government budget surplus 1.2% GDP in 2017 and 0.4% GDP
in Q1 2018 Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
* estimated
Source: Ministry of Finance
Consolidated Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
Central Government Budget (RSD bn)Tax Revenues (as % of GDP)
17
-1.5%-1.9%
-2.6%
-4.4%-4.6% -4.8%
-6.8%
-5.5%
-6.6%
-3.7%
-1.3%
1.2%
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other tax revenues Duties Profit tax Personal income tax Excises VAT
788 812881
9481042
1119
1178
980 986
11281063 1037
1085
1206
-192 -174-247
-115
5 34
-28
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*
Revenues Expenses Balance
The IMF completed the first review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on June 26, 2015
– The economy has stabilized, inflationary pressures remained subdued, the external position has strenghtened and credit growth remained slow
The IMF completed the second review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on October 23, 2015
– The economic growth has remained positive despite the significant fiscal tightening, the current account deficit has narrowed to a sustainable level,
confidence has improved and gradual easing of monetary policy by the NBS has been appropriate in view of still low inflation
The IMF completed the third review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on December 18, 2015
– The economy has continued to recover on the back of efforts to strengthen public finances, address structural weaknesses and improve the business climate
The IMF completed the fourth and fifth reviews of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on August 31, 2016
– Serbia’s economic recovery has exceeded expectations, supported by efforts to strengthen public finances, advance structural reforms and boost investment
confidence, while authorities indicated their intention to continue treating the arrangement as precautionary
The IMF completed the sixth review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on December 16 , 2016
– Serbia’s economy continues to strengthen, supported by the efforts to improve public finances and address structural weaknesses. Employment is rising,
inflation remains firmly under control, and public debt has started to decline. Significant progress has been made on fiscal consolidation, on account of strong
revenue and on-going expenditure control
The IMF completed the seventh review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on August 30, 2017
– Serbia’s economy has strengthened with strong revenue performance, monetary policy has succeeded in keeping inflation under firm control, as well as
business environment has strengthened.
The IMF completed the eight and final review of Serbia’s economic performance under the SBA on December 20, 2018
– Serbia has made significant progress under the Fund-supported economic program. Confidence in the economy has improved, public debt is declining
rapidly, external position is robust, and investment and growth are stronger. Labor market conditions continue to improve. Significant progress has also been
made in implementing the structural reform agenda.
– During the arrangement that expired on February 22, 2018 the Republic of Serbia did not use the available funds.
Serbia Reiterates the Importance of Cooperation with the IMF
18
Completed first review of
Serbia’s Stand-By Arrangement
Completed second review of
Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
20082006 2009 2011June 2015 Oct 2015 Dec 2015
Completed third review of
Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Completed fourth and fifth
reviews of Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Aug 2016 Dec 2016
Completed sixth review of
Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Aug 2017
Completed seventh review
of Serbia’s Stand-By
Arrangement
Dec 2018Completed eight
review of Serbia’s
Stand-By Arrangement
Active Debt Management Has Produced Stable Funding Base
Total foreign debt
59%
Total domestic debt
41%
Other
15%
IMF, 2%
IDA, 1%
Paris Club, 5%
IBRD, 9%
Other
1 %
T-bills and
T-bonds
38%
Frozen
FX bonds
2%
Guaranteed external debt
7%
Eurobond, 16%
EIB, 4%
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Public Debt
Public Debt Service (RSD bn)
Description of the Debt Structure(As of 31 May 2018)
Development of the Currency Structure
19
2014.8 2309.0
2753.2 3018.6 3064.6 2751.1 2851.0
56.2% 59.6%
70.4%74.7% 71.9%
61.6%59.9%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
55.0%
65.0%
75.0%
85.0%
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18
Public debt (in RSD bn)
Public debt (% of GDP)
20.3% 21.4% 22.2% 20.9% 23.0% 24.7%
45.9% 41.7% 39.8% 39.7% 41.6% 40.2%
27.7% 31.5% 32.9% 33.9% 29.5% 28.6%
4.6% 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2%
1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 2.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18
Other SDR USD EUR RSD
3.3%
125 127 119 106
515 537 554453
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2015 2016 2017 2018
Interest Principal(RSD bn)
Debt Mix and Currency Structure
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2018 Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2018
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2018
*Internal Debt – All currencies Debt on the Domestic market
** External Debt – All currencies Debt on the International market
0,5% 2,7%
Source: Ministry of Finance, as of 31 May 2018
*Internal vs **External Debt
Interest Rate Mix
Currency Breakdown
Public Debt Residual Maturity Structure
20
58.9%
41.1%Total foreign debt
Total domestic debt
80.8%
19.2%
Fixed interest rate
Variable interest rate
24.7%
40.2%
28.6%
3.2%
RSD
EUR
USD
CHF
SDR
Others
6.9%
7.7%
12.6%
24.3%5.7%
13.8%
14.1%
5.9%
9.0%
Up to 6 months
Between 6 months and 1 year
Between 1 and 2 years
Between 2 and 5 years
Between 5 and 7 years
Between 7 and 10 years
Between 10 and 15 years
Between 15 and 20 years
Over 20 years
Government Financing Needs 2018
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
• The improvement in fiscal position of the Government decreased the
level of gross financing needs in the last three years
• Total financing needs in 2018 are EUR 5.6bn of which EUR 1.5bn for
buy-back operations
• Financing plan for 2018:
√ EUR 3.5bn government securities domestic market, of which:
* EUR 2.0bn denominated in dinars
* EUR 1.0bn denominated in euros
* EUR 0.5bn denominated in dinars (buy-back operation)
√ EUR 1.0bn Eurobond (buy-back operation)
√ EUR 0.25bn IBRD
√ EUR 0.30bn Abu Dhabi Emirate concessional loan
√ EUR 0.55bn other sources (IFIs and bilateral loans)
• 5Y RSD and 10Y RSD benchmark size dinar bonds are issued in 2018
• Improved secondary market trading of government dinar securities due
to benchmark size issues
Maturity Distribution of Local Currency Government Securities (As of 31 May2018)
Maturity Distribution of EUR Denominated Government Securities (As of 31 May 2018)
21
9%
31%
16%
29%
15% 2Y 3Y
5Y 7Y
10Y
5%13%
26%
32%
16%
8%
53W
2Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
15Y
Government Securities – Domestic Market
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
22
RSD securities-domestic market (Jan-May 2018)
EUR securities-domestic market (Jan-May 2018) ATM of Government securities
RSD weighted average accepted rate on primary auctions
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
3M 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y
RS
D B
illio
ns
Redemptions
New Issuance
-
50
100
150
200
250
53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
EU
R M
illio
ns
Redemptions
New Issuance3.6
3.8
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
In y
ears
ATM RSD Securities
ATM EUR Securities
3.83% 4.19%5.21%
2.64%
3.48%4.56%
4.83%
5.12%
2.78% 3.13%3.93%
4.78%
5.38% 5.68% 5.83%4.96% 4.42%
5.94%
7.06%
8.62%
6.50%7.35%
7.54%8.49%
9.21%10.16%
10.93%
11.99% 12.99%
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
3М 6M 53W 2Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y2018 2017 2016 2015 2014