Reported emissions for models

Reported emissions for models

Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model

Jeroen Kuenen,Hugo Denier van der Gon,Magdalena Jozwicka,Antoon Visschedijk

Total NMVOC, 2009

Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models

What do emission inventories offer?

Procedural processFollow the GuidelinesSpecifically set number of sourcesAim to use the best science

Annually we report again emissions for all years from the start of the period

Methods change over timeNew numbers every year for all years in the past

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What do modellers need?

Modellers need emissions, but more than just “inventories”They need (high resolution) spatially distributed emissionsThey need temporally distributed emissionsThey need all sources, so not only the sources covered by reporting requirements (including non-anthropogenic sources)

Biogenic and soil emissionsResuspension, road dust

But above all, they need a fully consistent dataset accross the whole domain!

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Officially reported emissions of PM10 (kt)

May 13, 2013Jeroen Kuenen

Reported emissions for models

Thanks to CEIP for making all this available!!!


Reported emission trendsA consistent emission inventory in space and time is key to modellers, as they aim to understand the spatial/temporal patterns

Trends in reported emissions are not always understandable

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Country-to-country variations for NOX

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Similar discrepancies for PM

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Also spatial consistency is very important

In some cases, the average “emission density” at the border changes quite a lot

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Source: reported emissions to CLRTAP (EEA website)


But there is more where we have work to do...

Work together between inventory people and modellers to identify missing or wrong sources

Sources are not covered by EIs can be very important for modellers (e.g. resuspension; road dust)VOC/PM composition; condensable organics are a candidate to add additional PM emissions (more in Expert Panel on Tuesday)International shippingOpen discussion of unknowns (e.g. NMVOCs from agriculture)

Bring in new pollutants where relevant, especially the composition of PM as there is a strong connection to climate change

Black carbon now being introduced

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Elemental carbon emission map for 2005

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But there is more where we have work to do...

Ensuring a consistent spatial distribution accross countriesCovering major point sources in all countries (connection to E-PRTR?)Using proxies to distribute area sources, in a consistent way

Work together with the modelling community to improve time profilesImprove the default profiles, more sectoral or region specific issuesUse actual data instead of default profiles, e.g. meteorology

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Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for modelsMay 13, 2013

Time profiles applied to anthropogenic emissions

NH3 Monthly

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

jan

feb

mar apr

may jun jul

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

Month

Emis

sion

(kt) Agriculture

Waste treatment and disposal

Other mobile sources

Road transport

Solvent use

Extraction distribution of fossil fuels

Industrial processes

Industrial combustion

Residential, commercial and other combustion

Power generation

PM2.5 Monthly

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

jan

feb

mar apr

may jun jul

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

Month

Emis

sion

(kt)

Agriculture



Road transport

Solvent use





Power generation

NOx Monthly

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

jan

feb

mar apr

may jun jul

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

Month

Emis

sion

(kt) Agriculture



Road transport

Solvent use





Power generation


Example of time profiles for power plants

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Conclusions and recommendations

Both modellers and inventory compilers need to understand each other

Challenges ahead in terms of:Consistency of emission estimates in both space and timeImproving the spatial and temporal emission patternsNew sources and new pollutants

A good dialogue between inventory compilers and modellers is key to make progress

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TNO-MACC_II inventory

Gridded emission inventory for 2003-2009 for UNECE Europe, used by many modelling groups in Europe for main air pollutants

Inventory is based on:Reported data where possibleAlternative data (e.g. GAINS emissions or own bottom-up estimates) where needed

All emissions (dis-)aggregated to 77 different source categories

Spatially distributed using general methodology for all countriesUse of annual E-PRTR data for distribution of PS emissions for selected sources, countries and pollutants

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Example: NOx total for 2009

Thank you!

Reported emissions for models

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