Report No. 6 - Turkey Israel and NATO
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Transcript of Report No. 6 - Turkey Israel and NATO
www.mediterraneanaffairs.com
The Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement
and the Role of NATO
Written By Hasan Aygun
June 2016
Report No
06
Copyright© 2016 by Mediterranean Affairs
This Paper must not be reproduced in any form without permission in
writing form the publisher.
Updated at June 1, 2016
All statements of fact, opinion, or analyses expressed are those of the
authors and do not reflect the opinion of Mediterranean Affairs
Mediterranean Affairs is a non-profit think tank that covers a variety of
international issues of the Mediterranean area. By carrying out extensive
researches, the staff studies various issues of international policy focused
on defense and security, regional stability, and transnational challenges such
as economic integration.
The main objective is to provide information to the public on the website
drafting detailed and updated analyses, reports and dossiers. Mediterranean
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such as conferences and workshops, as well as on consultancies and
interviews with the media.
Summary
Introduction ................................................................................ 5
Israeli perspective ...................................................................... 7
Turkish perspective .................................................................... 8
History of the Turkish-Jewish relations ..................................... 8
Elements that brought the two countries back to negotiating
table .......................................................................................... 14
Consequences for third parties ................................................ 18
Russia ....................................................................................... 18
Cyprus ...................................................................................... 20
Egypt ........................................................................................ 20
Iran ........................................................................................... 21
NATO and the repercussions ................................................... 22
Conclusions .............................................................................. 24
References ................................................................................... 26
About the Authors ...................................................................... 29
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
4
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5
The Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement
and the Role of NATO
Hasan Aygun
Introduction
On May 4th, 2016, the news on the NATO's official website read
that, along with Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, the North
Atlantic Council "has agreed to accept the request that an official
Israeli Mission be established at NATO headquarters." The news
continued to add that Israel had been a very active partner of the
Alliance as a member of NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue, established
in December 1994.1
The short statement may look insignificant to some, as it is a routine
step for partners to have representation within NATO, but in reality it
is the tip of an iceberg of often emotional and sensitive developments
involving the Eastern Mediterranean affairs.
As early as October 2007, Israel's Vice PM and Foreign Minister at
the time Tzipi Livni stated that Israel was committed to the NATO
Mediterranean Dialogue and that it was time to upgrade and formalize
1 NATO agrees Israel Mission to NATO. (May 04, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/4TgeRH
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
6
the relations between Israel and NATO, broaden the scope of
cooperation and promote joint activity.2
Israel applied NATO for opening an office in its Headquarters back
in September 2011, and then Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu declared that his country blocked the attempt by veto
threat and the issue was never in the agenda of the Council.3
The timing of that application was ill-chosen, when tension between
Jerusalem and Ankara was still very high because of the Mavi Marmara
incident that happened the previous year. Turkey, initially also vetoed
Israel's participation in various NATO meetings and exercises, but
later in 2012 relaxed its position, allowing limited presence in selected
events. Nevertheless, the cooperation between NATO and Israel did
continue, particularly in areas of counter-terrorism. Turkey and Israel
used to be close allies in the Middle East and it is very important to
remember this when
considering the more recent
developments.
After five years of
objections, Turkey finally
agreed to lift its veto on
Israeli representation in
NATO. With a moderately
optimistic look, this could be
2 Livni address at Israel NATO Symposium. (October 22, 2007). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/DrmmJI 3 Turkiye'den Israil'e NATO Vetosu. (September 19, 2011). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/CQEsXx
Source: Global Research
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7
the beginning of a new set of relationships and new balance of power
in that region. For NATO, it will make business in the area easier,
forging cooperation to increase the potential of the Alliance to have
better access to partner's means and understanding of the region.
Israeli perspective
On May 4, 2016, at his weekly cabinet meeting, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would "accept an
invitation from the NATO to open a permanent office at its Brussels
headquarters," a slight variation to NATO's version of the
development, but the noteworthy point was that he saw the move as a
significant upgrade for Israel's ties to NATO. Netanyahu said Israeli
diplomatic efforts paid off after many years and the move will enhance
Israel's security, and it was important to Israel's standing in the world.
He claimed that the countries of the world want to cooperate with
Israel because of his country's determined struggle against terrorism,
technological knowledge and intelligence deployment.4
Israel is not new to NATO partnership and has excellent relations
with most of NATO nations and armed forces. The only exception
was Turkey, with which the relations have followed a roller-coaster
ride, due to major disagreements on Palestinian issues, but also due to
strong personalities of leaders of both countries, passionate about
their views and opinions of each other.
4 Keinon, H. (May 4, 2016). Israel to open permanent office at NATO HQ, five years after Turkey blocked move. Jerusalem Post. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/a7ERt5
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
8
However, on almost all occasions, also with the encouragement of
mutual friendly third parties, reason somewhat prevails and the two
countries turn back from the brink of confrontation to more normal
relations.
Turkish perspective
Turkish response to the development was much muted. The
Government did not make any official announcement, but unofficial
statements acknowledging it as part of confidence building measures
for normalization.5 Only some extreme religious groups and the
Felicity Party, which is not represented in the parliament, reacted
negatively, and blamed the Government for paving the way to "Israel's
membership to NATO"6 and its President Mustafa Kamalak warned
that Turks and Jews would fight against Muslims.7
History of the Turkish-Jewish relations
It is important to understand that Turks and Jews had historically
close relationship going as early to the establishment of the Ottoman
Empire. Apart from the presence of Krymchak – the Turkic speaking
Crimean Jews,8 who also survive today in Lithuania,9 the territory of
5 Yildiz, M. (May 9, 2016). Müyesser Yıldız yazdı: İsrail'in NATO'da ne işi var. ODA tv. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/b6NgAu 6 Gross, G. A. (May 4, 2016). Ya’alon: Turkey reset impossible while it hosts Hamas. Times of Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/nDvBcI 7 Ozbay, A. (May 7, 2016). Mustafa Kamalak: Türk askeri ile İsrail bir olup Müslümanlara karşı savaşacak. Milli Gazete. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/rRVJ4B 8 Orientation-Krymcaks – Countries and Their Cultures. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/IjHjFq 9 The Karaims. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/9mmKdt
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9
the Empire hosted Jewish communities from Jerusalem to Bursa,
where the Etz ha-Hayyim Synagogue has been in use since 1324.10
Starting in the 14th
century, Jews fleeing
oppression from
Hungary, France, and
Sicily began to settle in
the Empire. In 1453,
Sultan Mehmet II
actively encouraged Jews
to settle in Ottoman
lands. After he conquered Constantinople, he issued a proclamation to
all Jews stating, "Who among you that is with me, may his God be
with him, let him ascend to Istanbul, the site of my imperial throne.
Let him dwell in the best of the land, each beneath his vine and
beneath his fig tree, with silver and with gold, with wealth and with
cattle. Let him dwell in the land, trade in it, and take possession of
it."11 Jews soon made up 10 per cent of Istanbul's population.
During the Spanish Inquisition, Ottoman Sultan Bayezid II sent an
armada to save the Sephardic Jews of Spain, as well as those from
Portugal, South Italy and Sicily. In 1492 he granted them permission
to seek refuge in the Ottoman Empire. Eventually, more than 100,000
10 Etz ha-Hayyim Synagogue. Center for Jewish History. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/xpsLS3 11 Ottoman Empire: A Safe Haven for Jewish Refugees (June 11, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/zOEtYC
Benjamin Netanyahu, Iraeli PM, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,
Turkish President
Source: Haaretz
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
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Jews settled in Istanbul, Thessaloniki, western cities of Anatolia and
other cities of the Balkans.12
The Jews brought many skills in enterprising and trade and became
an integral part of the society. Jews were preferred over the distrusted
Orthodox subjects of conquered lands and enjoyed more privileges
than the locals of the Balkans, practically until the decline and final
collapse of the Empire and had no problems with the establishment of
the Republic of Turkey.
Turkey remained mostly neutral during the World War II, but
through the efforts of some diplomats and deals, saved about 35,000
Jews from the Holocaust. With the establishment of Israel, about sixty
per cent of Jews chose to move there on a voluntary basis,
maintaining ties with Turkey. Today, Turkish Jews number around
77,000 in Israel.
Turkey became the first Muslim majority country to recognize Israel
in March 1949. Military, strategic, economic and diplomatic
cooperation between the two countries blossomed, the Israeli Air
Force was allowed to exercise in Turkish airspace and Israeli
companies were involved in modernizing projects of Turkish combat
jets and tanks. Major projects for selling Turkish water to Israel, "The
Peace Water Pipeline" of 1986 through offshore pipelines and high-
12 Avraham, R. (February 26, 2013). Jewish History: Medieval Jews Fleeing Persecution Take Refuge in Ottoman Turkish Empire. United with Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/39I4cZ
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11
tech cooperation came to agenda several times, but mostly failed to be
realized for one reason or another.13
Relations were still smooth during the first years of Justice and
Development Party (AKP) majority and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as
Turkish Prime Minister, between 2002 and 2008. In fact, trade,
military cooperation and tourism flourished even further. Islamist Al-
Qaeda terrorist attacks in 2003 against two Jewish Synagogues in
Istanbul that killed 24 and injured 300 united the two people more in
their condemning all sorts of terrorism.14
Just after that incident, PM Erdoğan was awarded the Medal of
Courage by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) during his visit to
the US in January 2004.15 Erdoğan went on to pay an official visit to
Israel in 2005 and offered to serve as a peace mediator between Israel
13 Yildiz, D. (June 6, 2014). International Water Transfer Projects of Turkey. Hidropolitic Accademy. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/50WUDI 14 Barkat, A., Stern, Y. and Melman, Y. (November 16, 2003). Attacks on Istanbul Synagogues Kill 24. Haaretz. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/mCFwuQ 15 Erdogan honored with medal of courage by AJC. (Jenuary 28, 2004). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gUUn8J
Source: Gate Stone Institute
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
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and Syria, as well as Israel and Palestine.16
In early 2006, relations with Turkey were termed as "perfect" by the
Israeli Foreign Ministry, as a joint Israeli-Palestinian industrial park
was being developed under Turkey's aegis and in November 2007, the
Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas addressed the Turkish Parliament a day apart. Syrian
Foreign Ministry said that Turkey was also serving as a "channel of
communication" between Syria and Israel.17
Relations took a downturn during the second term of AKP and
ascend of Benjamin Netanyahu to Prime Ministry in Israel, particularly
with the 2008–2009 Gaza War; when the Turkish Government
strongly criticized Israel over heavy civilian sufferings and Israeli
Government accused Turkey for its support to Hamas.
At the World Economic Forum conference in Davos, Switzerland
in January 2009, Prime Minister Erdoğan criticized Israel's conduct in
Gaza and deaths of civilians in raids with very strong words.18
On 5 March 2009, the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz reported that
secret talks were held to get the Israeli-Turkish relations back on track,
but without any success. On 11 October 2009, Turkey barred Israel
from the Anatolian Eagle military exercise and Israeli Prime Minister
16 Myre, G. (May 2, 2005). Turkish Leader Visits Israel, Restoring Friendly Ties. New York Times. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gUUn8J 17 Israeli-turkish relations – World Heritage Encyclopedia. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gAq19w 18 Bennhold, K. (January 29, 2009). Leaders of Turkey and Israel clash at Davos panel.
The New York Times. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gHoa2Y. cited in Özerdem, A., and Özerdem, F. (2013). Human Security in Turkey: Challenges for the 21st Century. New York, NY: Routledge.
Jume 2016
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Benjamin Netanyahu objected to Turkish mediation, accusing Turkey
for "not being an honest broker," between Israel and Syria.19
After Hamas leader Khaled Mashal paid a visit to Turkey in March
2010, Israel accused Turkey of cooperating with Hamas and Iran,
alleging that Hamas established a command post in Turkey and has
used it to oversee operations in the Middle East.20
The relations dipped further below when Israeli troops killed nine
Turkish civilian unarmed activists and wounded many more on 31
May 2010, during the raid on the ship Mavi Marmara, part of the
"Gaza Freedom Flotilla," a convoy of six ships carrying activists from
37 nations, along with food and materials of aid for Gaza with the aim
to break the Israeli embargo. Mavi Marmara was flying a Turkish flag
and the raid took place in the international waters of the
Mediterranean Sea. Very strong mutual accusations mounted the
tensions. and Prime Minister Erdoğan described the raid as "Israeli
state terrorism."21
Turkey demanded an apology, compensation and that embargo to
Gaza be lifted. Ambassadors were withdrawn, trade became static and
tourism dwindled. In September 2011, military agreements were
suspended and 16 defense contracts worth about 10 billion dollars
were frozen.
19 Israeli-Turkish Relations - Diplomatic and Political Relations. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/anWjCM 20 Gross, Y. A. (February 11, 2016).Ya’alon: Turkey reset impossible while it hosts Hamas. Times of Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/x2hzF0 21 Booth, R. (May 31, 2010). Israeli attack on Gaza flotilla sparks international outrage. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/owgmnP
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
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Hillary Clinton wrote in her memoir "Hard Choices," that the then
Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu told her that Turkey came to the
brink of declaring war on Israel "After '9/11'-scale Attack."22
In March 2013 Israel officially apologized for Gaza Flotilla killings,
and promised to resolve the compensation issue, but refused to take a
step back in her Gaza policies.
In December 2015, due to necessity of cooperating against the ills
of the region, but also for economic and political mutual benefits,
Turkey and Israel began secret talks to restore diplomatic relations.23
Elements that brought the two countries back to
negotiating table
From the Turkish side, the main motivation is that the Government
needs allies for political, security and economic reasons.
Turkey is not content with how the Syrian crisis evolved and is
facing at home both ISIS and PKK terrorism. Turkish supported Free
Syrian Army is on the losing side and ISIS is lobbing missiles to Kilis,
a town only a few kilometers from the Syrian border. PKK terrorists
are finding refuge and supplies in Syria and Iraq, and disrupt life in
southeast Turkey, while PKK's kin PYD in Syria is recognized by the
US and other allies as a friendly force fighting ISIS.
Over 2.7 million Syrian refugees roam the country and many
terrorist elements hide among them.
22 Hillary Clinton: Turkish FM Considered War on Israel After '9/11'-scale Attack. (June 16, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/pVy4TU 23 Eichner, I. (December 17, 2015). Secret talks hint at Israeli-Turkish thaw. Y-Net News. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/G9l0OT
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The confrontation with Russia over the shooting of a Russian plane
over the Turkish airspace has not been resolved. Russia has deployed
S-300 and S-400 missiles to Syria and has hinted that any Turkish
plane crossing the border will be shot down, thus undermining
Turkish fight against mainly the ISIS.24
Furthermore, Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian gas (55% of
all imports); faced with ever growing demand; is desperate to diversify
suppliers, and Israeli gas is a fresh breeze in the region. Although still
a remote possibility, an Egyptian-Israeli-Cypriot-Greek gas pipeline,
bypassing Turkey would also be strategically unpleasant for Turkish
leadership. Turkey has been following the Israel, Cyprus and Greece
discussions on energy cooperation and will not wish to be left out.
Trade, tourism and technological cooperation are only a few of
numerous other benefits.25
Due to crisis in Iraq and Syria and now problems with Egypt,
Turkey needs land/sea access for exports to the Gulf countries and
Israel offers an alternative. Israel can offer weapons and UAV's
Turkey can use in its new urban terrorism challenge. Friendship with
Israel also wins friends in Washington, D.C.
So, Turkish President Recep T. Erdoğan's words, "Israel is in need
of a country like Turkey in the region. We have to admit that we also
need Israel"26 should not come as a surprise.
24 Alix Culbertson and Tom Batchelor. (November 25, 2015). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/CQ71z3 25 Ellinas, C. (February 28, 2016). Israel-Turkey rapprochement. In-Cyprus .Retrieved from http://goo.gl/nmt31I 26 Merkezi, H. (February 2, 2016). Erdoğan: Türkiye ile İsrail'in birbirine ihtiyacı var. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/X7VIHk
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
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On the Israeli side, Syrian regime-Iran-Hezbollah triangle and ISIS
presence in the region is too close for comfort. Given the threats of
Hezbollah and ISIS, Israel is determined to hold on to Golan Heights
and needs allies in the region. Turkish influence over Hamas may help.
To counter the Shia
threat from Iran, Syrian
regime, Hezbollah and
potentially Iraqi
extremists Israel needs
to reach to new
elements in its foreign
policy. Columnist Ben
Caspit from Al-Monitor claims that "promoting the emerging Israeli-
Sunni understandings are becoming a strategic cornerstone in Israel's
national security" and Turkish contribution to a new image of Israel
among Sunni front cannot be overlooked.27
Israel would therefore benefit from restoring ties with one of its few
Middle Eastern partners, particularly to balance Iran's grip over Syrian
regime and its big influence in Lebanon. Turkish friendship will also
make access to NATO cooperation for enhanced security options.
Economy is the other main motivation. Since 2012, Israel is trying
to develop the Leviathan gas field and export its new found gas, where
27 Caspit, B. (April 13, 2016). Is Israel forming an alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/5nVkDB
Source: Turkish Policy
Jume 2016
17
Turkey is the geographically nearest and most viable customer who
requires less investment in pipelines.28
A deal with Turkey would create interdependence and anchor the
two countries as allies and the first steps are already there to note.
Israeli company Edeltech and Turkish Zorlu Holding have signed a
$1.3 billion deal with Leviathan partners to build two new power
plants in Israel.29
In an interview Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz said that
the two countries are very close to signing an agreement and resuming
diplomatic relationship, adding that up to 90% percent of the gaps
have been bridged. He added that "Turkey needs Israeli gas and Israel
needs Turkish market."30
Ankara would be consuming half of Leviathan's estimated reserves
of 29bn m3 from 2020, via a proposed pipeline to Turkey. As a second
phase, the gas can be shipped to Europe via Turkey.31
Also, Turkish energy company Turcas is setting up a buyer
consortium to ship Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey when the gas
reaches Turkey in the next four-five years.32
According to Israel's Consul General in Istanbul, the highest
ranking Israeli diplomat in Turkey, the Normalization Agreement
28 Caspit, B. (March 7, 2016). Why Israel needs Putin more than it needs Erdoğan. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/X9PtxL 29 Basboga, M. (May 5, 2016). Zorlu eyes jv in Israel. Natural Gas Europe. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/RiyIRQ 30 Wainer, D. and Benmeleh, Y. (May 5, 2016). Israel Minister Sees Solutions to Gas Impasse, Turkey Rift. Bloomberg. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/JpJv10 31 Basboga, M. (May 10, 2016). Turkey and Israel 'close to gas deal'. .Natural Gas Europe. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/qfcWGf 32 Erdil, M. (April 5, 2016). Dev Sirketler Israil Gazi icin el ele Verdi. Turkish daily Hurriyet. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/rhtzpm
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
18
signature is very close. In an interview, he reiterated the determination
of his Government to move ahead and it was only a matter of some
weeks or a few months at most. Once the agreement is signed, Israel
will pay around $20 million as compensation to families of victims of
Gaza Flotilla incident and would allow Turkey to send humanitarian
assistance to Gaza via Ashdod Port, with the condition that Turkey
should use the Palestinian Authority and not Hamas as official
counterpart.33
Consequences for third parties
In the region Russia, Egypt, Iran and perhaps Cyprus would be
most interested in new Turkish-Israeli friendship.
Russia
The relations between Ankara and Moscow are all time low and
Putin would not be very happy if Turkey assures Israeli friendship at
this point and he has some cards up his sleeve. Israel feels like walking
on eggshells in its rapport with Russia as the latter provides Iran and
Syrian regime with arms, which have occasionally landed in the hands
of Hezbollah, such as S-22 missiles. Russia can also limit Israel's air
force freedom of action by enabling Syria with better weapon systems.
Israeli message to Putin is that there must be no "Syrian arrangement"
33 Ozer, V. (May 11, 2016). İsrail Başkonsolosu Cohen: Türkiye ile birlikte Suriye'ye operasyon yapabiliriz!. Turkish daily Milli Gazete. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/eprFo5
Jume 2016
19
that strengthens Iran and
Hezbollah. "Shiite terror
endangers the world,
including Russia, no
less than Sunni jihad
does."34
On the other hand,
Russia has no special
liking of Hezbollah and will tread carefully about Iran. While
maintaining Iran as a client, Russia would not like to see another
dominant power in the Middle East.35
For Russians, Israeli natural gas being exported to Turkey is also not
good news, as they are currently the main supplier for Turks and this
brings some leverage over relations with Ankara. Russia would prefer
that Israel's gas does not compete with Gazprom, not only for sales to
Europe but more critically to Turkey.
In fact, Russian President Putin has been attempting to involve
Gazprom in developing the Leviathan field. On 19 October 2015,
Putin and Netanyahu agreed for participation of Gazprom in
developing the Leviathan gas reserves.36
34 Caspit, B. (March 16, 2016). Can Israel influence the 'day after' in Syria? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/iIrVWO 35 Caspit, B. (March 7, 2016). Why Israel needs Putin more than it needs Erdoğan. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/TWM3Cw 36 Ellinas, C. (February 28, 2016). Israel-Turkey rapprochement. In-Cyprus. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/h9qTtp
Valdimir Putin, Russian President, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,
Turkish President
Source: Sputnik News
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
20
Cyprus
A gas deal between Israel and Turkey would require an offshore-
pipeline through Cyprus' EEZ and the incentives may help hasten a
political settlement to Cyprus problem. It should, therefore, be an
incentive to promote such a solution proactively.
However, currently, Cyprus, Israel and Greece have agreed to the
establishment of a gas pipeline from the Aphrodite, Leviathan and
Tamar gas fields to a liquefied natural gas plant in the Vasilikos Power
Station by 2019 and how the two initiatives will develop is unclear.
The Turkish Cypriots would also not like to miss the opportunity to
get their share from gas dollars. The leader of the Turkish Cypriots
(Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as Turkey recognize it)
President Mustafa Akinci said Cypriot and Israeli gas could flow to
Turkish and European markets through a pipeline linking a reunified
island with Turkey, about 70 kilometers away. A planned Turkey-
Cyprus electricity cable link would further boost energy ties. "This will
not only be an energy corridor, but a corridor for peace also," Akinci
said.37
Egypt
Michael Kaplan from International Business Times reports that the
Egyptians don't want to see the Turks in the Gaza Strip, and are
strongly opposed to a rapprochement between Jerusalem and
37 Some see gas as boon to Israel, Turkey, Cyprus cooperation. (April 5, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/fDcHaN
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21
Ankara.38 Relations between Turkish President Erdoğan and Egyptian
President Al-Sisi are at an all-time low, over different perspectives of
Muslim Brotherhood era. The rivalry between the two Sunni countries
over leadership in the region has a long history and Israel's
rapprochement with Turkey can change the game for Egypt. On the
other hand, Israeli-Egyptian relations are normalized and this time,
Israel can help bridge the gap between Ankara and Cairo.
Iran
Islamic Republic has so far played its card very well in Iraq and
Syria, establishing its influence with both regimes. With its nuclear
deal the country is coming out of decades of embargo and is an
attraction point for Western companies and investment. Turkish-
Israeli rapprochement will influence Iran both in political, military and
economic terms. Iran's gas export to Turkey is an important export
income for that country and rivalry will hurt its price bargaining
chances. Furthermore, a wider Sunni-Israel relationship is something
Tehran will not appreciate. Probably Iranian regime will tread
carefully, in order to avoid Western reactions, but how it will use
proxies is to be followed closely.
38 Kaplan, M. (January 09, 2016). With Turkey-Israel Reconciliation Looming, Egypt Fears Turkish Influence In Gaza Strip. International Business Time. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/k6x3U4
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
22
NATO and the repercussions
As expressed in Wales Summit Declaration of 2014, the growing
instability in NATO's southern neighborhood, from the Middle East
to North Africa is defined as one of the two immediate challenges to
the member states, along with the threats against Eastern Europe.
NATO Leadership is more and more concerned about the challenge
posed by the terrorist organization ISIL as well as violent extremism
and sectarianism across the Middle East and North Africa. ISIL's
advances in Iraq and the Levant risk exporting terrorism to NATO
and Europe.39
At Security and Counter Terror Conference in London, on 19 – 20
April 2016 NATO's
Deputy Assistant
Secretary General for
Emerging Security
Challenges Dr. Jamie
Shea said there is 'justified
concern' that Islamic
State militants are actively
working to obtain
nuclear, radiological and
39 NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow at the conference on NATO-Israel cooperation, La Hulpe, Belgium. (November 17, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/ML9Qlr
Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, and
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkish President
Source: Presidency of the Republic of Turkey
Jume 2016
23
biological materials to carry out attacks on Europe. It is also feared
that ISIS has obtained a stockpile of Iraqi short range missiles.40
To better deal with the magnitude of problems and their spillover
potential to its member states, NATO is transforming the Active
Endeavour in the Mediterranean, into a broader security operation,
which can deal with counterterrorism, help dealing with migrant crisis
and ensure freedom of navigation. NATO will increase military
presence in the eastern part of the Alliance and at Warsaw Summit in
July 2016 will make the final decisions about the scale and the scope
this presence.41
Basic rationale for NATO's engagement with Israel is grounded in
sharing same concerns in region's explosive security environment as
source of radicalism, fanaticism and terrorism. Developing closer
cooperation with like-minded nations is an integral part of tackling the
challenges.
Among all these countries, Israel occupies a special place as one of
the most active participants in the Mediterranean Dialogue process
and the first to have concluded an Individual Cooperation Program
with NATO in 2008.
One priority area of the Cooperation Program is the fight against
terrorism, sharing experiences and intelligence. Others include
armaments cooperation, defense research and technology, airspace
40 Perper, R. (April 21, 2016). NATO Security Chiefs Warn of ISIS Plan for Nuclear Attack on Europe. Jerusalem Post. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/s7m3py 41 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at joint press point with incoming SACEUR General Curtis Scaparrotti. (May 4, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/mRKZWq
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
24
management and logistics cooperation. Another promising area for
closer cooperation is in training and education.42
Israel's official representation in NATO and regular attendance to
consultations on security issues is one positive development; but the
more important point is resolution of differences among
members/partners and other consensual governments of the Middle
East and establishment of a wider and abler coalition.
Conclusions
What you have, what you need and what can you do in the absence
of what. This is inventory control. Both Turkey and Israel need the
same thing, that is security and know that they cannot achieve it
without cooperation.
100 years from Sykes-Picot the Middle East is in a chaos. Iraq. Syria,
Yemen and Libya have collapsed. Future of Lebanon is not clear;
Jordan is squeezed under an immense refugee wave. Egypt is trying to
get out of turmoil, but most of the ills of that society are still a threat
to stability, and Sinai Peninsula is a war zone. ISIL is a menace to all
humanity, threatening Turkey from south and Israel from north and a
big Coalition is in operation to neutralize it.
Iran is fighting a proxy war in Yemen and Syria against the Sunni
world. Yet, it is emerging out of "terrorist state" status and even
becoming an "ally" of the West in its campaign against the ISIS. Both
42 NATO Deputy Secretary General Bisogniero opening speech at NATO Public Diplomacy Symposium in Herzliya-Israel. (October 22, 2007). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/FTpRHz
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Turkey and Israel are following how relations between Washington
and Tehran will develop. In Iraq and Syria Sunni-Shia animosities are
rekindled; weapons of ex-Libya are in the hands of radical/terrorist
groups and Europe is facing the biggest refugee wave of the century.
Low oil prices are hurting the Gulf monarchies, when their defense
expenses are skyrocketing. Russia has a naval base and a brand new
airbase in Syria and S-400 missiles are there to stay.
In such a dire environment, NATO and the West in general need
friends and better cooperation between friends. Turkish-Israeli
rapprochement is one-modest good news in the region.
And it is not only Turkey and Israel in this equation. In a region
divided into two fronts along the Shia-Sunni lines, it is imperative for
both countries to develop closer ties with the members of the front
where they feel better and that brings Egypt and Saudi Arabia in to the
epicenter of a potential coalition and also to better cooperation with
NATO.
Lately, Turkey is acting in unison with Qatar and Saudi Arabia and
although not pronounced loudly, Israel and Saudi Arabia are also
closing gaps, as both have Iran as their main rival/opponent.
Israel-Egypt-Saudi Arabia trio will be more complete with Turkey,
which shares the same concerns. It is not wrong to predict that the ice
between Turkey and Egypt could melt in these months.
Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO
26
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About the Author
Hasan AYGUN
Former NATO Chief Political Advisor, he has joined the Turkish
Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1983 and served as diplomat abroad at
various ranks: Vice-Consul in Iraq (1985-1987); First Secretary in Italy
(1987-1990); Charged d'Affairs in Yugoslavia (1992-1994); Counselor
at OSCE (1994-1996); Consul General in Azerbaijan (1997-1998),
Georgia (2000), and Saudi Arabia (2001-2002). During the period
2005-2012, he has been POLAD to the Commander, Allied Joint
Force Command Lisbon, and contributed to NATO’s humanitarian
operations in Pakistan (Kashmir Earthquake) and the U.S. (Hurricane
Katrina). He participated also actively in Operations in
Sudan/Somalia, counter-piracy Operations and support to the African
Union. From August 2012, he is Chief POLAD to the Commander,
Allied Joint Force Command Naples (Italy), and represents the
Command at international events, meetings, NATO's Parliamentary
Assembly, member and partner countries, IO's, NGO’s, think-
tanks/academic-research institutions. Finally, he also gives lectures
and conferences at the AU/UN events, NATO’s education facilities,
academic venues. He authored many classified papers within NATO
on global security, cultural, religion, ethnicity awareness, country case
and conflict resolution studies.
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Ed. Mediterranean Affairs©
www.mediterraneanaffairs.com
Cover image source: Mediterranean Affairs
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