Report: Champaign County, IL Transportation Needs by 2040

UP 430 Final Report: Champaign County/CUUATS Transportation Analysis

Scenario: Household Size Shift (Scenario 9)Justin Dierkes, Michael Halkias, Louis Pukelis, Maximillian Mahalek, Shuake Wuzhati

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Table of Contents:

Introduction/Project Overview:

Population and Employment Analysis: Page 3

Trip Generations by TAZ: Page 6

Trip Distribution: Page 13

Trip Modes: Page 20

Loaded Transit and Highway Network: Page 27

Conclusions: Page 33

Recommendations: Page 34

Appendix: Page 37

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.billburmaster.com%2Frmsandw%2Fillinois%2Fstate%2Fil47champaign.html&ei=2g9RVdeAFYrPsAXXjoHwDw&bvm=bv.92885102,d.aWw&psig=AFQjCNEhya-IGNHnWj0iEJr-UanuBmlVOg&ust=1431462230862669

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Introduction/Project Overview

The purpose of this project is to analyze trip generation within the transportation system of Champaign County, and in particular, the Champaign-Urbana Urbanized Area Transportation Study (CUAATS, as seen in Map 1), based on both analytical and descriptive points of view. The overall project is designed to present to CUUAT’s Long-Range Transportation Plan Steering Committee on how changes in land use systems will impact the local transportation system from the year 2010 through 2040. Scenario 9, which is assigned to our group, focuses on how changes in the number of households from 2010 to 2040 (based on demographic, economic, and cultural trends, and utilizing data from LRTP 2040) will impact transportation trends.

Map 1: CUUATS’ Communities

Source: http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040 -final/lrtp-2040-executive-summary/view

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Population and Employment Analysis

Our group has been assigned Scenario 9 by the steering committee, which is based on a hypothetical context of Champaign County having a population of 247,000 and an employment count of 150,000 by the year 2040. Furthermore, Scenario 9 calls for a situation in which one-person households make up 20% of the total household count, two-person households make up 44%, three-person households make up 20% , and four-or-more person households make up 16% of total households. In order to complete the scenario assigned, our group utilized projections offered by the Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040 (LRTP 2040), as authored by CUAATS in 2014.1 Furthermore, we utilized current 2010 counts (in terms of overall population, employment, and student population by Champaign County’s 307 traffic analysis zones, or TAZs, as originally gathered by CUUATS). Projections

Our group utilized several key portions of the LRTP 2040 to help determine growth projections in the areas of employment and population. Chapter 2 of the plan illustrated that, since the mid- 1940s, Champaign’s population, as well as its rate of population growth, have exceeded that of Urbana’s. Furthermore, most of the growth since the mid-20th century has taken place in southwest Champaign, in the Campustown community (along the border of Champaign and

Urbana), and in a portion of southeast Urbana.2 Chapter 3 of the plan takes a closer looks at the current and projected socioeconomics of the community. Currently, Champaign and Urbana have significantly high poverty rates and youth populations. This is due partially to the fact that the

University of Illinois’ flagship campus is located here, which has a large, technically impoverished student population (the university serves as the twin-cities’ main engine of growth). However, there is much poverty scattered throughout the northern portions of both Champaign and Urbana. This chapter also lists significant employers in the region (other than the university), including Kraft Foods, both cities’ school districts, local hospitals, and Parkland Community College. According to Chapter 3, as of 2010, 35% of total households are one person

households, 32% are two-person households, 14% are three-person households, and 17% are four-or-more person households.3 Chapter 4 of the plan also illustrates that the population density within Urbana and Champaign has been decreasing over the last 25 years, particularly as large residential subdivisions are developed on the periphery of both communities.4

1 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/ 2 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040: Chapter 2. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final/individualchapters/ chapter-2-historical-review/view 3 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040: Chapter 3. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final/individualchapters/ chapter-3-demographics/view 4 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040: Chapter 4. Web. Accessed at

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From the Appendices of the LRTP 2040 plan, we utilized Table E.1 and Table E.2. Table E.1 provides population projections for each of the 307 TAZs within Champaign County through

2040 (and reports data back to 1990). Similarly, Table E.2 provides employment projections for each of the TAZs through 2040, and reports current data as of 2010, as seen in Appendix Items 1and 2).5

Population

The difference between the counted 2010 and projected 2040 population is 42,874 persons (from 201,081 persons in 2010 to 243,955 persons in 2040). Note that the projected 2040 population is a 1.5% error from the 2040 goal population of 247,000 persons, as established by the Steering Committee for Scenario 9 (which is a minor error). This projection is based off of the following calculations (our group felt it was more essential to produce logical projections than to arbitrarily change them to meet the goal total of 247,000 persons):

1. It was determined that the raw household percentages for 2040 did not add up to the projected total household count for 2040. The population from the 2010 household percentages added up to only a total population of 203,024 persons.

2. We adjusted the percentage value in each household category to total 100%. This was done by multiplying raw household percentages by (100%/83.22%). This provides us with the adjusted household count for 2040 of 99,319 households.

3. We then confirmed that the adjusted household count for 2040 (99,319 households) is the same as the total amount of households projected by the rate of increase in population between 2010 and 2040.

4. The adjusted 2040 population for each TAZ was then calculated by assuming one person in a one-person household, two persons in two-person household, three persons in a three-person household, and an average of 4.509 persons in a four-plus person household (determined by the average number of persons living in four-plus person households in

2010- as listed in Table 3.8 in the LRTP).

Within Champaign-Urbana, population growth was projected to increase for those areas west of Champaign, southeast of Urbana, in a few select TAZs in Campustown (Image 1). Surprisingly, some portions of inner-city Champaign and Urbana may actually lose population, due to growth http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final/individualchapters/chapter-4-land-use/view6 5 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040: Appendix. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final/lrtp-2040-introindex- draft/view

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in periphery areas, as the housing stock in these neighborhoods deteriorate (as is occurring in the North End of Champaign) (Image 2). Only a few areas of Campustown grew, as this neighborhood is, for the most part, already built up (Image 3). Throughout the county, significant population growth is expected in the Mahomet area, as well as in Savoy and in St. Joseph. Meanwhile, populations were expected to remain stagnant for areas in and around such communities as Ogden, Thomasboro, and Philo.6

Image 1: Much of the growth in the region is taking place on the periphery of CUUAT’s communities, often in rural subdivisions.

Source: http://champaignexpertsblog.com/2010/12/14/cherry-hills-subdivision-champaign-market-info/

Image 2: The housing stock in some inner-city neighborhoods, such as Bristol Park in Champaign, is deteriorating heavily.

Source: http://www.cnuil.org/#!ca-best-neighborhood-district-corr-2014/c9u

6 (Dec 2014). Long Range Transportation Plan: Sustainable Choices 2040: Chapter 3. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-range-transportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final/individualchapters/ chapter-3-demographics/view

http://champaignexpertsblog.com/2010/12/14/cherry-hills-subdivision-champaign-market-info/

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Image 3: Much of the Campustown community is already built up. Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/25/e7/42/25e742c4ab02dcc4c38b4bf699320133.jpg

Employment

The calculated difference between the 2010 employment data and the target 2040 total employment is 48,403 jobs (from 101,597 jobs in 2010 to 150,000 jobs in 2040) (see Appendix Items 1 and 2). Furthermore, we increased employment by 50 jobs for the following TAZs:

1) The ten TAZs with biggest total employment in 2040, per the LRTP 2040 plan.

2) The ten TAZs with highest employment increase from 2010 through 2040, per the LRTP 2040 plan.

The reason we added additional employment to these TAZs is because those areas with high total employment and high employment increases tend to attract more jobs (in a cyclical pattern). The

TAZs with the highest total employment in 2040 were generally located in the vicinity of downtown Champaign, the University of Illinois campus (including its Research Park), and the industrial and commercial areas on the northern/western peripheries of Champaign. Those TAZs with the highest increases in employment by 2040 (as projected by the LRTP 2040) are scattered throughout the twin-city region. These areas include those TAZs to the south of Champaign, the east of Urbana, and to the far north of Champaign (along or near I-57). Through this process, we were able to achieve a total 2040 employment of 150,000.

Trip Generations by TAZ

Total trips in Champaign County’s TAZs are expected to increase from 907,903 to 976,684 between 2010 and 2040 (a 7.58% increase) (see Appendix Item 3). This is a difference of 68,781 trips. Attraction trips are expected to increase from 886,142 to 993,851 (a 5.38% increase) and productions are expected to increase from 817,185 to 885,967) (an 8.42% increase). Taking into consideration the projection of production and attraction trips in 2040 (as compared to 2010),

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there are some patterns that we are able to view amongst Champaign County’s 307 TAZs. even in economically stagnate Rantoul. A moderate growth in trips is also expected to take place inside Campustown (near the University of Illinois) and along the northern edge of the county. The TAZ with the highest projected increase in trips is TAZ 170, located near the northern periphery of Champaign, with a 54,912% increase.

Notably, several “inner-city” TAZs in west Champaign, east Urbana, and even in Campustown are projected to see a decrease in trips. Outside of Champaign-Urbana, TAZs that are expected to lose trips (per Maps 2, 3, and 4) include those in the southwest part of the county, as well as in the area east of Rantoul. The TAZ with the greatest decrease in trips by 2040 is projected to be TAZ 194, with a 75% decrease. Interestingly, this TAZ is located directly southwest of Champaign, clashing with our generalizations made here that TAZs on that city’s western periphery will grow.

Space Skipped Intentionally

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Map 2: Total A/P in 2010

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Map 3: Total A/P in 2040

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Map 4: Changes in Attractions and Productions, 2010-2040

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Productions

As of 2040 (as seen in Figure 1 below), “Home-Based Other Productions” are projected to be the main source of production trips, followed by “Non-Home Based Productions” and “Home-Based School Productions.” “Home-Based Shopping Productions” are projected to be the lowest contributor to production trips. However, as seen in in Figure 1 below, from 2010-2040 there is expected to be a 2.1% decrease in “Home-Based School Productions,” and a 13.9% increase in “Home-Based Shopping Productions. By 2040, the TAZs with the highest expected increase in “Home-Based Shopping Productions” will be TAZs 18, 133, 160, 170, 177, all with 100% increases (these TAZs are generally located on the peripheries of Champaign and Urbana), while the TAZ with the biggest decrease in “Home-Based School Productions” will be in TAZ 194, with a 100% decrease expected (this TAZ is located southwest of Champaign).

Figure 1: Changes in Trip Productions in Champaign County, 2010-2040

Attractions

Similar to productions, “Home-Based Other Attractions” will contribute the most to attraction trips, followed by “Non-Home Based Attractions” and “Home-Based School Attractions.” “Home-Based Shopping Attractions” are projected to contribute the least to attraction trips (as seen in Figure 2 below). Nonetheless (and similar to productions), “Home-Based Shopping Attractions” are expected to have the greatest increase from 2010-2040, a 14.1%, while a 2.1% decrease is expected for “Home-Based School Attractions.” By 2040, the TAZ with the highest expected increase in “Home-Based Shopping Attractions” will be in TAZ 138 (located in southwest Champaign), with a 582.4% increase, while the TAZ with the biggest expected decrease in “Home-Based School Attractions” will be in TAZ 214 (located in west Champaign) with a 45.8% fall.

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Figure 2: Changes in Attractions in Champaign County, 2010-2040

Trip Spatial Trends

There are many factors that have an impact on the increase or decrease in the number of trips produced between the years 2010 and 2040. These factors could include residential development, commercial development, or no more room for expansion within the TAZ. The majority of the TAZs within the limits of Champaign or Urbana saw little change in their total productions/attractions from 2010 to 2040. This is due to the fact that there is little room for further development within these communities. However, there are a few TAZs within Campustown (home to the University of Illinois) that are projected to have significant increases in numbers of trips. TAZ 7 is just one example, with an 8.52% increase in trips expected. Such tracts are witnessing the conversion of many commercial and/or vacant lots to high-density residential uses. Meanwhile, other TAZs near campus, such as TAZ 9, with a 3.5% decrease expected, will remain stagnant, as that area is already built-up.

Almost 22% of the current Champaign County population is aged 20-29, and a significant portion of those people are students at the University of Illinois.7 Assuming that the student body population remains at a similar level, we should not expect widespread significant changes in the TAZs around campus. However, the drop noted above in the proportion of trips that are “Home-Based School” trips by 2040 may be explained by the growth in the number of students taking online classes.

7 (2015). Long Range Transportation Plan. Web. Accessed at http://cuuats.org/lrtp/documents/long-rangetransportation-plan-sustainable-choices-2040-final

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On the peripheries of these two cities, construction is playing a major factor in the growth of these regions. These areas, including TAZ 137, on the southwestern edge of Champaign (with a 12.1% increase in trips projected) are changing from rural to being more commercial (and even residential) in nature. On the other hand, some TAZs on the periphery of communities, such as TAZ 290 near Rantoul, are projected to have a major decrease in the number of trips produced. In this case, a once active Air Force Base (Chanute Air Force Base) has been shut down, and every year there are fewer incentives for individuals to work or live near the decommissioned base (although, as noted previously, overall trips are projected to increase for Rantoul by 2040). Furthermore, land developers are avoiding this area possibly due to the existence of the 47 acre Advanced Transportation Research and Engineering Library (ATREL). This area is used by the University of Illinois and the Illinois Department of Transportation for full-scale testing and infrastructure evaluation of transportation and rail systems.8

Based on our scenario’s projections, the Mahomet area is expected to observe a significant increase in its population. Mahomet is expanding eastwards toward Champaign, with residences and commercial buildings being developed around the Lake of the Woods area. TAZ 271, which includes this area, is projected to have a 50% population increase, and the population of Mahomet’s TAZs 184 and 185 are expected to triple. This implies that land developers are trying to take advantage of the popular Lake of the Woods Forest Preserve, and are planning to intensify construction on Mahomet’s eastern periphery. These population increases correspond with expected trip increases of 44.9%, 195.2%, and 194.2%, respectively.

Trip Distribution

A trip distribution analysis links the trip production and trip attractions for each TAZ pair. Critical factors of trip distribution include trip length, travel orientation, and magnitude of traffic and passenger volumes.

After inputting the travel impedances data, estimated friction factors, CUBE produces the trip distribution matrices for our scenario.

Trip Distribution by Purpose, 2010 vs. 2040

The greatest percent increase in generated trips can be found in “Home-Based Shopping” trips (as seen in Table 1 below). This 13.0% increase can be accredited to the increased commercial development that is expected to occur in the area by 2040. The areas, immediately north of I-74 in Champaign, are expected to have some of the greatest increases in productions and attractions. Many restaurants, Marketplace Mall, and most of the region’s big box stores are located in this area, so it understandable that trip distribution would be skewed toward this district.

8 Illinois Center for Transportation. Web. Accessed at http://ict.illinois.edu/about/

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Table 1: Trips by Purpose, 2010 vs. 2040

Trips 2010 2040 Difference Percent Change

Home-Based Work 153,241 164,112 10,871 7.09%

Home-Based School 154,726 151,499 -3,227 -2.09%

Home-Based Shopping 96,447 108,986 12,539 13.00%

Home-Based Other 277,622 305,133 27,512 9.91%

Non Home-Based 225,822 246,908 21,086 9.34%

Total 907,858 976,639 68,781 7.58%

In addition to “Home-Based Shopping” trips, “Home-Based Work,” “Home-Based other,” and “Non-Home Based” trips are all expected to increase by 7-10%. Again, this can be credited to an increase in population, employment, and development. The only type of trip that appears to decrease by 2040 is “Home-Based School” trips. This is partially due to the fact that local school system and the university are doing what they can to promote students and faculty carpooling, using public transit, and encouraging biking. Such strategies have been represented in the efforts of the university, and the cities of Champaign and Urbana to promote new urbanism and active transportation solutions. Furthermore, more and more students may begin to take classes online, as shown in the figure below, removing the requirement for a trip to be made. With technology advancing at an exponential rate, it is difficult to accurately predict changes in higher education as well as student enrollment in universities. In fact, chief academic leaders have proposed a long-term strategy to reach a high of 69.1% of online classes offered at various universities.9

Figure 3: Actual and projected U of I students with online courses

Source: http://i1.wp.com/mfeldstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/JXF_CH03.png

9 http://onlinelearningconsortium.org/survey_report/changing-course-ten-years-tracking-online-education-united-states/

http://i1.wp.com/mfeldstein.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/JXF_CH03.png

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Case Study: TAZ 1

As a case study, we analyzed trips to and from TAZ 1, which is located just east of West Side Park in downtown Champaign. Map 5 and Map 6 display trips to TAZ 1 in 2010 and 2040, illustrating which zones produce the most trips that are destined for TAZ 1. Between 2010 and 2040, we expect to see a growth in trips from suburban/periphery communities to TAZ 1, which can be explained by residential growth in suburban areas and commercial/employment growth in TAZ 1.

Map 5 : Trips to Zone 1 in 2010 by zone Map 6: Trips to Zone 1 in 2040 by zone

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Map 7 and Map 8 display trips from TAZ 1 in 2010 and 2040, presenting which zones attract the most trips from TAZ 1. From 2010 to 2040, there is not expected to be a significant change in the destinations of trips produced in TAZ 1 (as many who live or work in TAZ 1 will continue to visit the university and north Champaign’s commercial district).

Map 7: Trips from Zone 1 in 2010 by zone Map 8: Trips from Zone 1 in 2040 by zone

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Average Duration of Trips by Purpose, 2010 vs. 2040

We calculated the average trip duration based on the cumulative frequency distribution for five minute travel ranges for both 2010 and 2040 (see Appendix Items 4 and 5). These distributions are shown in Figures 4-8 below.

To estimate the average of the trip time, we take the time midpoint of each five minute range (assuming that the trip durations are uniformly distributed within that 5 minute range) and multiply this midpoint by the percentage of total trips that each range takes up.

Figure 4: Time Distribution for Home-Based Work Trips in Champaign County

Figure 5: Time Distribution for Home-Based School Trips in Champaign County

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Figure 6: Time Distribution for Home-Based Shopping Trips in Champaign County

Figure 7: Time Distribution for Home-Based Other Trips in Champaign County

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Figure 8: Time Distribution for Non Home-Based Trips in Champaign County

Table 2, found below, shows the average trip duration by purpose for the base (2010) and horizon (2040) years. In 2040, trip duration for every trip purpose except “Home-Based School” trips averages 19.56 minutes, which is 70.73% higher than the 2010 average of 11.46 minutes. In addition, there is an increase in trip duration for every trip purpose from 2010 to 2040. “Home-Based School” and “Non Home-Based” trips have the biggest increase in trip duration from 2010 to 2040 (104.4%, and 104.03%), while “Home-Based Work” trips have the smallest increase in trip duration (45.96%).

Several factors contributed to the overall increase in trip duration from 2010 to 2040. The increase in population and household numbers leads to more trips. Therefore, it is reasonable to see longer trip duration as more vehicles on the roads in 2040 given the road capacity in 2010. However, it is worth noting that the significant increase in trip duration (70.73% on average) demonstrates the effect of increased traffic pressure on the lives of residents.

Table 2: Average Duration of Trips by Purpose for 2010 and 2040

2010 2040 Difference Percentage

Home-Based Work 13.89 20.27 6.38 45.96%

Home-Based School 8.60 17.58 8.98 104.40%

Home-Based Shopping 12.34 20.08 7.75 62.79%

Home-Based Other 12.71 19.98 7.27 57.17%

Non Home-Based 9.75 19.88 10.14 104.03%

Average 11.46 19.56 8.10 70.73%

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Trip Modes

Changes Amongst Trip Purposes

Between 2010 and 2040, our group was able to view the changes between each type of trip purpose, and we were also able to view certain patterns (these trips are seen in Table 3, found below).

Table 3: Trip Changes by Purpose, 2010 to 2040

Trip Purpose 2010 2040 Change Percent Change (%)

Home-Based Work 169,702 181,691 11,989 7.06

Home-Based University 122,656 117,261 -5,395 -4.40

Home-Based K-12 School 31,936 34,110 2,174 6.81

Home-Based Shopping 96,479 109,023 12,544 13.00

Home-Based Office 308,018 338,548 30,530 9.91

Non-Home Based 271,688 298,162 26,474 9.74

Our group saw the greatest increase in “Home-Based Shopping” trips (13.00%). This increase is most likely due to the increase in commercial development in the area that is expected by 2040 (particularly taking place north of I-74, where most of the region’s “big box” stores are located).

In addition to “Home-Based Shopping” trips, “Home-Based Work,” “Home-Based School (K-12),” “Home-Based Other,” and “Non-Home Based” trips are all expected to increase by roughly 6-10%. Again, this can be credited to an increase in population, employment, and development.

“Home-Based University” trips are expected to drop by 4.40%. This drop may be explained by an increase in online classes taken by students at Parkland Community College and the University of Illinois.

Changes Amongst Trip Modes

As with trip purposes, our group observed a change in trip modes from 2010 to 2040. By 2040, we observed an increase in trips made by bike or by walking (overall increases of 4.99 and 4.90% respectively). The greatest increase was in shared rides (9.86%), while a decrease was seen in transit trips (-2.89%). The increase in shared ride trips, and the decrease in transit trips, can be explained by the conditions of our scenario (Scenario 9), which requires variations in

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household sizes (which mainly take place in the suburban peripheries of the Champaign-Urbana that are less accessible to transit).

Table 4: Trip Changes by Mode, 2010 to 2040

Trip Mode 2010 2040 Change Percent of Trips in 2040 (%)

Percent Change (%)

Drive Alone 513,679 559,035 45,356 51.82 8.83

Share Ride 238,995 262,562 23,567 24.34 9.86

Transit 35,651 34,621 -1,029 3.21 -2.89

Bike 22,258 23,369 1,111 2.17 4.99

Walk 189,895 199,208 9,313 18.47 4.90

The following six tables (Tables 5-10) illustrate changes by modes by trip purposes.

Table 5: Trip Mode for Home-Based Work Trips

Trip Purpose Trip Mode 2010 2040 Percent Change

Home-Based Work

Drive Alone 122,285 130,646 6.84%

Share Ride 18,336 19,592 6.85%

Transit 5,694 5,980 5.02%

Bike 3,998 4,333 8.39%

Walk 19,390 21,140 9.03%

Total 169,702 181,691 7.06%

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Table 6: Trip Mode for Home-Based University Trips


Home-Based University

Drive Alone 16,687 16,663 -0.14%

Share Ride 1,949 1,954 0.26%

Transit 29,195 27,836 -4.66%

Bike 8,669 8,361 -3.55%

Walk 66,155 62,446 -5.61%

Total 122,656 117,261 -4.40%

Table 7: Trip Mode for Home-Based K12 School Trips


Home-Based K12 School

Drive Alone 10,276 11,059 7.62%

Share Ride 10,278 11,061 7.63%

Transit 400 410 2.47%

Bike 1,255 1,342 6.94%

Walk 9,727 10,238 5.25%

Total 31,936 34,110 6.81%

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Table 8: Trip Mode for Home-Based Shopping Trips


Home-Based Shopping

Drive Alone 68,044 76,850 12.94%

Share Ride 25,222 28,487 12.95%

Transit 57 66 15.36%

Bike 324 377 16.39%

Walk 2,832 3,243 14.51%

Total 96,479 109,023 13.00%

Table 9: Trip Mode for Home-Based Other Trips


Home-Based Other

Drive Alone 155,914 171,450 9.96%

Share Ride 108,545 119,377 9.98%

Transit 71 77 9.56%

Bike 4,195 4,674 11.43%

Walk 39,293 42,969 9.36%

Total 308,018 338,548 9.91%

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Table 10: Trip Mode for Non-Home Based Trips


Non-Home Based

Drive Alone 140,473 152,367 8.47%

Share Ride 74,666 82,090 9.94%

Transit 233 252 7.87%

Bike 3,817 4,280 12.13%

Walk 52,498 59,173 12.71%

Total 271,688 298,162 9.74%

As seen, in the tables above, in four of the categories of trip purposes, we expect to see a greater increase of trips by bike than by driving alone (in “Home-Based Work” trips, “Home-Based Shopping,” trips, “Home-Based Other” trips, and “Non-Home Based” trips). In three of the categories of trips, a greater increase of trips by walking than by driving alone was observed (in “Home-Based Work” trips, “Home-Based Shopping” trips, and “Non-Home Based” trips). Though numbers like these are positive to see, in terms of hoping for more “green” methods of transportation in the future, by 2040 the majority of trips will still be “drive-alone trips” (roughly 51.82%). Indeed, in all of the trip purpose categories other than the two “Home-Based School” trip categories (for the university and K-through-12 trips), more than 50% of travelers are still expected to make their trips by driving alone (while for “Home-Based University” trips, all modes will see decreases except for shared ride trips). Moreover, no trip mode for any trip purpose is expected to increase by 20%. The 2040 horizon year population modal choice based on our scenario is displayed in Figure 9 below.

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Figure 9: Population modal choice for 2040

This finding illustrates that, despite the infrastructure and facilities being installed to promote alternative modes of transportation, roughly the same percentages of people are expected to travel in 2040 by the same mode of transport as they used in 2010. With results like these, it gives planners and engineers the opportunity to ask “what can be done to reduce the percentage of drive alone trips and increase the percentages trips made through alternative modes of transport (particularly for “Home Based K-12” trips)?” This should be one of the top priorities of local planners and engineers in the years to come. By reducing the amount of trips taken by lone drivers, traffic congestion will be reduced, there will be a smaller overall carbon footprint for the area, and people would be encouraged to be more physically active through increased levels of walking and biking (or greater use of public transit).

Changes in Transit

From the year 2010 to 2040, it was viewed that the total amount of passenger-car person and vehicle trips increased by 9.01% and 8.93%, respectively. Meanwhile, as shown in Table 11, transit trips in the region will fall by 11.1% by 2040. As noted, this decrease can be explained by the growth of larger households in suburban areas that are not very accessible to public transit (and may also be explained by an increase in students taking online classes). Reviewing the data presented in Tables 5-10 above, transit trips are expected to increase for all purposes except for “Home-Based University” trips. Moreover, transit trips are expected to increase the most for “Home-Based Shopping” trips (a 15.36% increase). This may be explained by enhanced public transit access to the commercial areas of Champaign-Urbana.

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Table 11: Changes in Overall Transit Trips

2010 2040 Change

Total Trips 907,903 976,684 68,781

Transit Trips 32,685 31,253 -1,432

% Transit Trips 3.60% 3.20% -11.1%

Maps 9 and 10 illustrate the percentage of trips by transit by all of the TAZs in Champaign County in 2010 and 2040. As the Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit District provides a strong level of transit in Champaign-Urbana (and the county provides minimal public transit outside of Champaign-Urbana), our group is not surprised to see that, in 2010 and 2040, transit trips are strongest in Champaign-Urbana. Moreover, for both 2010 and 2040, the highest percentage of trips by transit is in the area of the University of Illinois, where many students commute daily without a car. Surprisingly, in both years, TAZs in far west Champaign are also strongly serviced by transit (where several companies are established). Furthermore, for both 2010 and 2040, TAZ 50, located on the campus of the University of Illinois, will have the highest percentage of trips by transit. Interestingly, from 2010 and 2040, it is projected in our model that a few TAZs in near-western Champaign and southeast Urbana will see drops in the percentage of trips by transit. These drops may be explained by an increase in the population of families with children that do not take public transit at a young age.


27

Map 10: Percentage of Trips by Transit Map 9: Percentage of Trips by Transit by TAZ in 2010 by TAZ in 2040

Loaded Transit and Highway Network

In 2040, our model projects a significant volume increase around I-74 and the connectors to local roadways (see Appendix Items 6 and 7). This is justified by the fact that we have a projected increase in trip generations at the TAZs North of I-74. More specifically, our scenario projects an expansion in residential development East of the I-57/I-74 junction and our expected increase in “Home-Based Shopping” trips will stress the roadways around the Market Place Mall area. Again, due to residential development, we project vehicular volume increase in the Lake of the Woods area in Mahomet. Due to tension added from the population and employment increase, the primary collectors such as Neil Street, Prospect Avenue, University Avenue, Springfield Avenue, and Cunningham Avenue. are also expected to display increase in vehicular volume. These vehicular volume changes can be seen in more detail in Maps 11 and 12.

28

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in 2010 were 4,803,679 and in 2040 they were 5,100,428 resulting to a 6.18% increase. VMT per household and VMT per capita for 2010 and 2040 were 48.4 miles and 51.4 miles, and 19.4 miles and 20.6 miles respectively.

Maps 11and 12: 2010 and 2040 Vehicular Volumes by Roadway

Our findings confirm our group’s suspicions that the most growth in employment would take place in the peripheries of both cities and the most population growth would take place on the edge of the communities (particularly west of Champaign), as well as in some TAZs located near campus. The map below shows the change in vehicular volume between 2010 and 2040.


29

Map 13: Vehicular Volume Percent Change (2010-2040) by Roadway in Vehicles

These volume increases effectively increase the congestion levels in our reference area. In comparison between the maps of congestion in 2010 and 2040, we are able to see a difference in congestion in a few locations. Most notably, we see spots of congestion in similar locations. In 2010, all corridors of congestion (with a Volume/Capacity ratio above 0.9), are located in Champaign. A few of these locations

30

are also located near I-74, Market Place Mall, and near many of the area’s restaurants and “big box” stores. More specifically, those are Prospect Avenue between Bloomington Road and Marketview Drive, as well as Neil Street and Convenience Center Road near Marketplace Mall. Other locations of interest involving congestion in 2010 include Springfield Avenue between Neil Street and Locust Street, as well as Stadium Drive between Neil Street and Oak Street. Compared to 2040, there are many more locations in the Champaign-Urbana area where we can expect increased levels of congestion. Some of these main corridors, in addition to those listed in 2010, include Mattis Avenue between I-74 and Interstate Drive, Springfield Avenue between Prospect Avenue and Russell Street, Lincoln Avenue between Fairview Avenue and University Avenue, as well as small pockets of congestion at the intersections of Lincoln Avenue & Nevada Street and at University Avenue and the I-74 feeder ramp.

We are able to view in the following maps, just how high the congestion is in a given location based on its volume to capacity ratio. Locations where the V/C ratio is 0.9 or above, we can assume a very high level of congestion, meaning typical traffic volumes (mainly during peak hours) at these locations are about 90% of the capacity that these roads were designed for. One step ahead of this are roads with a V/C ratio over one. In these cases, we can expect peak hour volumes over the capacity of which these roads and facilities were designed to hold.

Map 14: 2010 Congestion levels by V/C ratio (Red indicates V/C > 0.9)

31

Map 15: 2040 Congestion levels by V/C ratio (Red indicates V/C > 0.9)

Locations where we will see very large V/C ratios are at Market Place Drive and Prospect Avenue, which will have V/C ratios near 1.09 and 1.27. Consequently, extremely high volumes in these locations can most likely be the direct effects of an increase in “Home-Based Shopping” trips to this area. Since most of the area’s population lives south of I-74, and many of area’s stores and restaurants are north of I-74, high V/C ratios can be expected on corridors such as Prospect Avenue and Neil Street on both sides of I-74 that provide those connections between origin and destination. In the case of Market Place Drive, these sections provide access to parking lots from the primary collectors. Reasons for congestion on these access roads are due to large influxes of traffic at a given time. For example, when people are trying to leave the mall, they all use the same roads to get back to the primary collectors. When waiting to turn onto the primary collector, drivers encounter long queues, signals that have short green cycles, and even intersections without signals, such as at Convenience Center Road and Neil Street, where traffic waiting on Convenience Center Road must yield to cross traffic on Neil Street. With an increase in “Home-Based Shopping” trips, we can only expect problems like this to become more common. In addition to people making “Home-Based Shopping” trips to this area, also consider all of the people making the same trips to go to work. In Map 16 (on the next page), as expected, we observe a similar change in V/C ratio in relation to the change in vehicular volume on each one of the roadways. Since development is static in downtown Champaign and Campustown we expect little or no change in congestion. As we

32

move further out towards the peripheries, we have active residential and commercial development, as well as some of the largest projected increases in volume and congestion in these areas.

Map 16: 2010-2040 Percent Change in Congestion levels by V/C ratio

33

In order to relieve congestion and improve the flow of traffic in the area immediately north of I-74 near Prospect Ave. and Neil St., the infrastructure and transportation facilities need to be upgraded. The roadways with V/C ratio larger than 0.8 should be prioritized for infrastructure improvement. In some locations, traffic signals will most likely need to be added, where at others, signal timings may just need to be updated. At other locations where volume is greater than the capacity, an overall change in the infrastructure will have to be implemented. Such implementations can include adding turning lanes, increasing right of way for road widening, changing traffic patterns, expanding intersections, and updating traffic signal timings. With some or possibly all of these implementations to update the infrastructure and transportation facilities off Prospect, Neil, and near Marketplace Mall, we can reduce V/C ratios in this area, improve traffic flow, and accommodate the facilities as a whole for an increase in demand by 2040.

Conclusions

During the course of this study, a variety of growth patterns has been projected across Champaign County. Typically, the majority of the growth was expected to take place on the outskirts of the urbanized Champaign-Urbana community and in the Lake of the Woods area in Mahomet. This growth is deemed as a result of the availability of land. As there is more residential and commercial development, the number of households within the community will increase, while the amount of farmland available will be reduced. In effect, we notice the largest vehicle volume and congestion level increases in communities’ peripheral areas. On the other hand, since the TAZs within downtown Champaign and Campustown are almost completely saturated, growth remains stagnant in those areas. As seen from the data, there is a decrease in the amount of “Home-Based University” trips. This is partially due to the fact that the local school system and the university are trying to promote students and faculty carpooling, using public transit, and encouraging biking. Such strategies have been represented in the efforts of the university, and the cities of Champaign and Urbana, to promote new urbanism and active transportation solutions. Furthermore, more and more students may begin to take classes online, removing the requirement for a trip to be made. With technology advancing at an exponential rate, it is difficult to accurately predict changes in higher education as well as student enrollment in universities.

Overall, we find that our scenario is unsustainable. Growth in the suburban peripheries of CUUATS’ communities (particularly through the arrival of large households in those areas), as well as growth in car trips by single-persons, will contribute to increased congestion, more vehicle miles traveled per household, and longer travel times by 2040. These trends will results in greater levels of pollution, as well as greater amounts of money being spent on gasoline, automobile repair, and road infrastructure. Greater pollution and car usage can lead to increased medical risks for the community, including increased risks of asthma and obesity. Furthermore,

34

growth in congestion and vehicle miles traveled are typically associated with increases in traffic-related fatalities. The impacts of Scenario 9, as projected, will significantly impede the communities in the CUUATS region, as well as through Champaign County, from working towards the goals described in their various climate action and other environmental and public-health related plans.10 Fortunately, recommendations exist which can help to deter the unfortunate impacts of our scenario.

Recommendations

A range of recommendations can be forwarded to address the issues that are expected by 2040, based on the results of Scenario 9. These recommendations can be applicable to municipalities, the CUUATS area, the CU-MTD’s jurisdiction and even all of Champaign County. Furthermore, these recommendations can be the goals of planning departments, as well as other governmental bodies.

On the municipal level, providing financial incentives for families to purchase into core areas will greatly increase residential density in inner-city areas, and discourage residential sprawl on the urban fringe. In addition, providing direct transit routes to the commercial hubs in Champaign-Urbana, including Marketplace Mall and most of the big-box stores, will not only better serve these commercial areas, but also encourage more public transit usage. Such a step is necessary, as our analysis predicts a surge in “Home-Based Shopping” trips to Champaign's commercial fringes (Image 4).

Image 4: Bust transit must be improved to the commercial area north of I-74. Source: http://www.philipbrewer.net/2012/04/20/what-do-taxing-districts-do/

In order to take advantage of External-External trips passing through the county, which account for 4.2% of the 2010 total trips, we recommend improving signage along I-74 (directing motorists to central business districts, both in Champaign-Urbana and in other communities). In

10 Urbana Climate Action Plan Draft: City of Urbana, IL. Web. Accessed at http://urbanaillinois.us/sites/default/files/attachments/city-urbana-cap-phase-i-final.pdf

35

order to encourage more transit ridership on the regional level, we also recommend increasing regional transit connectivity through promoting C-CART services. C-CARTS refers to the Champaign County Area Rural Transit System, which provides general public transportation within rural areas or between rural and urbanized areas in Champaign County.11 In addition, expanded cooperation between CU-MTD and Parkland College will likely increase public transit ridership.12

We also recommend applying different strategies to limit growth on the edge of communities. These strategies include setting growth boundary for residences, particularly in the extra territorial jurisdiction of municipalities within CUUATS. A residential growth boundary may limit sprawl while avoiding negative impacts on the lucrative industries situated on many municipalities’ boundaries. Although many would still have to commute to the edge of communities for work, the concentration of residences in established areas will likely incentivize retail to establish itself in core neighborhoods, enhancing accessibility, mobility, and even possibly, walkability (Image 5). Strengthening zoning controls to, in addition to limiting annexation agreements, will also enhance sprawl control. Such controls could also be relied upon to increase density and mixed-use development patterns within our communities, patterns which are associated with increased walkability and reduced carbon footprints.

Image 5: Urban growth boundaries can be utilized to increase density in core areas. Source: http://plannersweb.com/2013/08/urban-growth-boundaries/

By improving transit, walking and biking infrastructure throughout C-U urbanized area, particularly north of I-74 and in the west of Champaign, as well as in established neighborhoods, residents will enjoy more active transportation solutions (particularly when seeking alternative ways to access commercial districts). Enhanced pedestrian infrastructure may take the shape of expanded sidewalks, improved streetscapes, and consistent curb cuts (Image 6). Meanwhile, 11

Champaign County Area Rural Transit System. Web. Accessed at http://c-carts.com/ 12

Lecture 4: UP 430. Web. Accessed at https://compass2g.illinois.edu

36

transit infrastructure could be improved through the continued construction of sheltered bus stops with bus timers, while biking infrastructure can be improved through greater delineation of bicycle lanes from traffic lanes (particularly on aged roads in inner-city Champaign and Urbana). Fortunately, several communities within CUUATS are working towards these goals through a variety of pedestrian, bicycle, and transit plans. These plans must be implemented as cost-efficiently as possible, while in a timely and comprehensive manner.13

Image 6: Enhanced streetscapes can protect the pedestrian from vehicles and enhance mobility and accessibility.

Source: http://smilepolitely.com/splog/green_street_streetscape_project_holding_open_house_january_22nd/

13 Lectures 1-9: UP 430. Web. Accessed at https://compass2g.illinois.edu

37

Appendix

Items in Appendix

2010 Economic and Demographic Projections for Champaign County- Item 1

2040 Economic and Dempographic Projections for Champaign County- Item 2

Trips by TAZ, 2010 vs 2040- Item 3

Average Trip Time in 2010- Item 4

Average Trip Time in 2040-Item 5

Loaded Network 2010 -Item 6

Loaded Network 2040-Item 7

38

Item 1- 2010 Economic and Demographic Projections for Champaign County

42

Item 2- 2040 Economic and Dempographic Projections for Champaign County

46

Item 3- Trips by TAZ, 2010 vs 2040

TAZ Number Attractions and Productions Totals (2010) Attractions and Productions Totals (2040) Change

1 6,170 8,692 40.88%

2 7,935 10,451 31.71%

3 6,128 6,616 7.96%

4 4,022 4,353 8.23%

5 2,866 3,130 9.21%

6 4,048 3,622 -10.52%

7 13,532 14,685 8.52%

8 9,522 9,702 1.89%

9 8,011 7,731 -3.50%

10 4,564 5,757 26.14%

11 7,259 7,249 -0.14%

12 5,208 5,607 7.66%

13 9,178 9,014 -1.79%

14 9,079 9,769 7.60%

15 27,815 30,499 9.65%

16 12,116 14,432 19.12%

17 19,784 23,447 18.51%

18 9,053 9,078 0.28%

19 6,963 7,619 9.42%

20 3,419 3,277 -4.15%

21 7,488 7,413 -1.00%

22 14,023 13,375 -4.62%

23 3,409 3,457 1.41%

24 10,814 12,481 15.42%

25 7,785 8,100 4.05%

26 3,641 3,875 6.43%

27 4,862 4,979 2.41%

28 14,151 14,692 3.82%

29 2,929 2,997 2.32%

30 1,952 2,134 9.32%

31 10,619 11,280 6.22%

32 11,876 13,191 11.07%

33 12,023 12,186 1.36%

34 8,085 7,683 -4.97%

35 12,118 12,980 7.11%

36 6,133 5,506 -10.22%

37 7,147 6,882 -3.71%

38 5,396 5,661 4.91%

39 29,621 45,954 55.14%

47

40 4,737 4,596 -2.98%

41 8,266 8,482 2.61%

42 16,276 18,998 16.72%

43 10,371 14,949 44.14%

44 1,633 1,535 -6.00%

45 11,264 11,109 -1.38%

46 14,332 13,469 -6.02%

47 14,815 18,761 26.64%

48 10,798 11,512 6.61%

49 10,672 10,736 0.60%

50 17,492 16,537 -5.46%

51 21,716 20,920 -3.67%

52 11,242 11,673 3.83%

53 2,659 2,317 -12.86%

54 15,636 16,449 5.20%

55 20,706 20,302 -1.95%

56 43,094 42,913 -0.42%

57 93,532 101,132 8.13%

58 6,449 6,327 -1.89%

59 9,412 10,964 16.49%

60 2,332 3,086 32.33%

61 9,319 11,707 25.63%

62 8,159 11,899 45.84%

63 6,317 5,663 -10.35%

64 8,713 9,482 8.83%

65 53,054 52,638 -0.78%

66 15,626 16,386 4.86%

67 4,225 4,454 5.42%

68 4,620 4,900 6.06%

69 12,477 13,433 7.66%

70 9,127 10,129 10.98%

71 3,388 3,768 11.22%

72 6,523 6,657 2.05%

73 2,684 2,830 5.44%

74 2,533 2,647 4.50%

75 4,151 4,935 18.89%

76 9,272 10,276 10.83%

77 8,662 9,759 12.66%

78 2,603 2,598 -0.19%

79 6,595 7,015 6.37%

80 4,480 5,271 17.66%

48

81 2,848 2,816 -1.12%

82 4,221 4,346 2.96%

83 2,406 2,343 -2.62%

84 3,021 3,288 8.84%

85 2,116 2,203 4.11%

86 4,387 4,413 0.59%

87 4,685 5,043 7.64%

88 3,263 3,565 9.26%

89 4,550 5,134 12.84%

90 4,518 5,204 15.18%

91 5,132 5,229 1.89%

92 10,053 11,508 14.47%

93 6,250 7,441 19.06%

94 4,034 4,030 -0.10%

95 7,197 6,944 -3.52%

96 7,610 8,178 7.46%

97 13,668 14,403 5.38%

98 5,204 5,205 0.02%

99 3,374 3,540 4.92%

100 1,413 1,425 0.85%

101 15,625 14,459 -7.46%

102 5,112 5,555 8.67%

103 9,140 9,589 4.91%

104 2,300 1,789 -22.22%

105 4,257 4,363 2.49%

106 1,953 2,726 39.58%

107 5,120 5,162 0.82%

108 3,932 4,233 7.66%

109 3,034 3,000 -1.12%

110 5,982 6,283 5.03%

111 5,209 5,106 -1.98%

112 4,478 4,580 2.28%

113 5,453 5,655 3.70%

114 4,847 4,416 -8.89%

115 5,842 6,105 4.50%

116 8,498 8,930 5.08%

117 14,562 15,126 3.87%

118 6,718 6,572 -2.17%

119 5,735 6,338 10.51%

120 2,369 2,567 8.36%

121 5,216 6,573 26.02%

49

122 763 773 1.31%

123 280 271 -3.21%

124 1,478 1,692 14.48%

125 386 371 -3.89%

126 2,449 2,297 -6.21%

127 7,075 7,489 5.85%

128 1,046 1,062 1.53%

129 907 1,045 15.21%

130 20,569 22,722 10.47%

131 14,988 16,402 9.43%

132 9,360 10,351 10.59%

133 10 13 30.00%

134 96 105 9.38%

135 609 608 -0.16%

136 242 340 40.50%

137 8,834 9,904 12.11%

138 1,440 4,184 190.56%

139 8,111 9,132 12.59%

140 22,948 22,678 -1.18%

141 18,429 17,201 -6.66%

142 364 416 14.29%

143 756 798 5.56%

144 382 363 -4.97%

145 6,270 9,272 47.88%

146 185 532 187.57%

147 144 175 21.53%

148 4,265 4,549 6.66%

149 3,020 3,379 11.89%

150 499 586 17.43%

151 396 413 4.29%

152 4,206 4,409 4.83%

153 1,972 2,140 8.52%

154 436 577 32.34%

155 137 158 15.33%

156 101 93 -7.92%

157 147 157 6.80%

158 146 175 19.86%

159 245 265 8.16%

160 77 89 15.58%

161 0 0 0.00%

162 1,099 1,088 -1.00%

50

163 50 60 20.00%

164 135 146 8.15%

165 149 168 12.75%

166 161 171 6.21%

167 99 122 23.23%

168 40 45 12.50%

169 52 59 13.46%

170 8 4,401 54912.50%

171 886 687 -22.46%

172 832 859 3.25%

173 27 31 14.81%

174 0 0 0.00%

175 3,541 3,857 8.92%

176 3,462 3,803 9.85%

177 5,633 5,051 -10.33%

178 99 137 38.38%

179 0 0 0.00%

180 50 65 30.00%

181 192 207 7.81%

182 1,072 1,387 29.38%

183 348 365 4.89%

184 1,015 2,996 195.17%

185 519 1,527 194.22%

186 24 25 4.17%

187 0 0 0.00%

188 37 41 10.81%

189 0 0 0.00%

190 15 16 6.67%

191 314 359 14.33%

192 39 38 -2.56%

193 0 0 0.00%

194 8 2 -75.00%

195 27 31 14.81%

196 2,899 3,453 19.11%

197 24 25 4.17%

198 8,228 8,342 1.39%

199 1,596 1,780 11.53%

200 250 671 168.40%

201 3,956 4,159 5.13%

202 5,150 4,900 -4.85%

203 265 948 257.74%

51

204 18 25 38.89%

205 3,436 3,645 6.08%

206 26 36 38.46%

207 3,360 3,399 1.16%

208 1,265 1,650 30.43%

209 2,422 2,078 -14.20%

210 2,551 2,493 -2.27%

211 3,007 2,959 -1.60%

212 3,032 2,451 -19.16%

213 8,793 9,834 11.84%

214 1,192 705 -40.86%

215 2,283 2,510 9.94%

216 1,016 938 -7.68%

217 2,543 2,597 2.12%

218 3,028 3,920 29.46%

219 1,123 3,576 218.43%

220 660 570 -13.64%

221 6,014 9,203 53.03%

222 12,409 13,372 7.76%

223 3,035 2,735 -9.88%

224 1,110 1,234 11.17%

225 936 1,005 7.37%

226 6,887 7,125 3.46%

227 128 138 7.81%

228 250 264 5.60%

229 1,186 1,078 -9.11%

230 1,417 1,751 23.57%

231 2,377 2,510 5.60%

232 3,480 3,681 5.78%

233 1,956 2,084 6.54%

234 2,398 2,313 -3.54%

235 1,883 1,872 -0.58%

236 42 49 16.67%

237 764 852 11.52%

238 1,390 1,065 -23.38%

239 33 37 12.12%

240 1,750 1,798 2.74%

241 4,353 4,791 10.06%

242 4,114 4,720 14.73%

243 1,811 1,917 5.85%

244 1,596 1,677 5.08%

52

245 377 373 -1.06%

246 1,328 1,360 2.41%

247 749 825 10.15%

248 1,652 1,858 12.47%

249 1,911 1,841 -3.66%

250 3,034 3,091 1.88%

251 8,703 9,896 13.71%

252 253 278 9.88%

253 1,864 1,840 -1.29%

254 10,180 10,814 6.23%

255 3,755 3,674 -2.16%

256 2,625 2,984 13.68%

257 7,300 8,219 12.59%

258 4,533 4,503 -0.66%

259 2,421 2,895 19.58%

260 1,999 2,162 8.15%

261 3,006 3,235 7.62%

262 2,035 2,253 10.71%

263 2,194 2,437 11.08%

264 6,324 7,736 22.33%

265 2,437 2,800 14.90%

266 3,464 3,638 5.02%

267 6,239 6,234 -0.08%

268 3,707 3,902 5.26%

269 6,142 6,763 10.11%

270 6,569 6,417 -2.31%

271 6,197 8,979 44.89%

272 7,144 8,134 13.86%

273 494 538 8.91%

274 1,520 1,768 16.32%

275 7,675 8,349 8.78%

276 1,692 1,844 8.98%

277 1,749 1,997 14.18%

278 5,099 5,228 2.53%

279 522 404 -22.61%

280 8,763 9,854 12.45%

281 1,644 1,444 -12.17%

282 7,121 7,490 5.18%

283 10,817 10,950 1.23%

284 1,085 1,170 7.83%

285 4,587 5,022 9.48%

53

286 2,500 2,549 1.96%

287 7,212 9,241 28.13%

288 7,733 8,190 5.91%

289 8,469 9,587 13.20%

290 3,875 2,594 -33.06%

291 2,294 2,481 8.15%

292 3,095 2,945 -4.85%

293 1,684 1,737 3.15%

294 12,291 12,865 4.67%

295 3,344 3,606 7.83%

296 4,333 4,845 11.82%

297 4,372 4,445 1.67%

298 11,885 12,020 1.14%

299 5,562 5,940 6.80%

300 3,813 3,955 3.72%

301 2,647 2,914 10.09%

302 31,496 34,527 9.62%

303 3,999 4,474 11.88%

304 1,607 1,648 2.55%

305 1,310 1,274 -2.75%

306 886 836 -5.64%

307 4,829 4,993 3.40%

Totals 1,683,327 1,820,885 8.17%

54

Item 4- Average Trip Time in 2010

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND WORK TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

BASEMW=11 VALUEMW=1 RANGE=0,80,5

MW[11] Accum

>= - < Obs Sum Pct Pct

----------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,642 8,591.17 5.2 5.2 |=====

5 - 10 15,956 62,388.38 38.0 43.2

|======================================

10 - 15 16,963 38,460.76 23.4 66.7 |=======================

15 - 20 12,389 17,845.77 10.9 77.6 |==========

20 - 25 11,943 16,563.78 10.1 87.6 |==========

25 - 30 10,235 10,695.47 6.5 94.2 |======

30 - 35 7,625 6,776.96 4.1 98.3 |====

35 - 40 4,831 1,876.21 1.1 99.4 |=

40 - 45 2,804 840.82 0.5 100.0 |

45 - 50 1,245 68.55 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 477 8.68 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 176 1.67 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 66 1.88 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 0.89 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.00 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

-------------------------------------

Total Obs = 86,372

Total Sum = 164,121

Mean = 13.9

@I=J = 2,962.05

Page 30 (VOYAGER DISTRIBUTION)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND SCHOOL TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


------------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,852 11,927.03 7.9 7.9 |=======

5 - 10 18,458 105,846.82 69.9 77.7

|==================================================================

===

10 - 15 20,074 25,979.67 17.1 94.9 |=================

15 - 20 14,071 3,383.98 2.2 97.1 |==

20 - 25 11,605 1,734.09 1.1 98.3 |=

25 - 30 9,096 1,208.77 0.8 99.1 |

30 - 35 5,571 1,266.58 0.8 99.9 |

55

35 - 40 2,721 122.40 0.1 100.0 |

40 - 45 1,030 34.77 0.0 100.0 |

45 - 50 329 6.02 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 100 0.78 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 49 0.76 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 9 0.01 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 5 0.34 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 -- -- -- 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 84,970

Total Sum = 151,512

Mean = 8.64

@I=J = 14,405.58



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND SHOPPING TRIPS FREQUENCY

DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


-------------------------------------------------------------------

-

0 - 5 1,833 15,471.32 14.2 14.2 |==============

5 - 10 18,085 44,299.10 40.6 54.8

|========================================

10 - 15 20,414 19,796.80 18.2 73.0 |==================

15 - 20 15,139 10,599.06 9.7 82.7 |=========

20 - 25 13,785 8,235.84 7.6 90.3 |=======

25 - 30 11,658 4,713.83 4.3 94.6 |====

30 - 35 8,558 3,217.82 3.0 97.6 |==

35 - 40 5,376 1,522.07 1.4 99.0 |=

40 - 45 3,069 707.24 0.6 99.6 |

45 - 50 1,382 264.77 0.2 99.8 |

50 - 55 511 90.89 0.1 99.9 |

55 - 60 191 39.79 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 67 21.63 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 12.68 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.16 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

-------------------------------------

Total Obs = 100,088

Total Sum = 108,993

Mean = 12.25

@I=J = 6,029.75

56



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND OTHER TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


-----------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,841 66,226.89 21.7 21.7 |=====================

5 - 10 18,249 112,015.39 36.7 58.4

|====================================

10 - 15 20,760 39,966.77 13.1 71.5 |=============

15 - 20 15,311 22,918.21 7.5 79.0 |=======

20 - 25 13,873 21,129.74 6.9 85.9 |======

25 - 30 11,734 14,684.89 4.8 90.8 |====

30 - 35 8,603 12,208.86 4.0 94.8 |====

35 - 40 5,406 7,078.20 2.3 97.1 |==

40 - 45 3,082 4,424.43 1.4 98.5 |=

45 - 50 1,387 2,654.56 0.9 99.4 |

50 - 55 512 806.27 0.3 99.7 |

55 - 60 191 613.90 0.2 99.9 |

60 - 65 67 221.49 0.1 99.9 |

65 - 70 19 186.73 0.1 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.67 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 101,036

Total Sum = 305,137

Mean = 12.72

@I=J = 30,272.85



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) NON HOME BOUND TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


---------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,936 43,747.46 17.7 17.7 |=================

5 - 10 19,606 115,908.69 46.9 64.7

|==============================================

10 - 15 21,975 56,744.72 23.0 87.6 |======================

15 - 20 15,818 12,957.96 5.2 92.9 |=====

20 - 25 14,366 7,541.58 3.1 95.9 |===

25 - 30 12,179 5,138.72 2.1 98.0 |==

30 - 35 8,836 3,367.09 1.4 99.4 |=

57

35 - 40 5,537 1,074.64 0.4 99.8 |

40 - 45 3,155 344.14 0.1 100.0 |

45 - 50 1,395 67.13 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 518 14.98 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 192 4.76 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 67 4.03 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 1.11 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.00 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 105,600

Total Sum = 246,917

Mean = 9.88

@I=J = 30,167.05

58

Item 5- Average Trip Time in 2040

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND WORK TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


----------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,642 8,591.17 5.2 5.2 |=====

5 - 10 15,956 62,388.38 38.0 43.2

|======================================

10 - 15 16,963 38,460.76 23.4 66.7 |=======================

15 - 20 12,389 17,845.77 10.9 77.6 |==========

20 - 25 11,943 16,563.78 10.1 87.6 |==========

25 - 30 10,235 10,695.47 6.5 94.2 |======

30 - 35 7,625 6,776.96 4.1 98.3 |====

35 - 40 4,831 1,876.21 1.1 99.4 |=

40 - 45 2,804 840.82 0.5 100.0 |

45 - 50 1,245 68.55 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 477 8.68 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 176 1.67 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 66 1.88 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 0.89 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.00 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

-------------------------------------

Total Obs = 86,372

Total Sum = 164,121

Mean = 13.9

@I=J = 2,962.05



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND SCHOOL TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


------------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,852 11,927.03 7.9 7.9 |=======

5 - 10 18,458 105,846.82 69.9 77.7

|==================================================================

===

10 - 15 20,074 25,979.67 17.1 94.9 |=================

15 - 20 14,071 3,383.98 2.2 97.1 |==

20 - 25 11,605 1,734.09 1.1 98.3 |=

25 - 30 9,096 1,208.77 0.8 99.1 |

30 - 35 5,571 1,266.58 0.8 99.9 |

59

35 - 40 2,721 122.40 0.1 100.0 |

40 - 45 1,030 34.77 0.0 100.0 |

45 - 50 329 6.02 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 100 0.78 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 49 0.76 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 9 0.01 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 5 0.34 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 -- -- -- 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 84,970

Total Sum = 151,512

Mean = 8.64

@I=J = 14,405.58



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND SHOPPING TRIPS FREQUENCY

DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


-------------------------------------------------------------------

-

0 - 5 1,833 15,471.32 14.2 14.2 |==============

5 - 10 18,085 44,299.10 40.6 54.8

|========================================

10 - 15 20,414 19,796.80 18.2 73.0 |==================

15 - 20 15,139 10,599.06 9.7 82.7 |=========

20 - 25 13,785 8,235.84 7.6 90.3 |=======

25 - 30 11,658 4,713.83 4.3 94.6 |====

30 - 35 8,558 3,217.82 3.0 97.6 |==

35 - 40 5,376 1,522.07 1.4 99.0 |=

40 - 45 3,069 707.24 0.6 99.6 |

45 - 50 1,382 264.77 0.2 99.8 |

50 - 55 511 90.89 0.1 99.9 |

55 - 60 191 39.79 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 67 21.63 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 12.68 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.16 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

-------------------------------------

Total Obs = 100,088

Total Sum = 108,993

Mean = 12.25

@I=J = 6,029.75

60



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) HOME BOUND OTHER TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


-----------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,841 66,226.89 21.7 21.7 |=====================

5 - 10 18,249 112,015.39 36.7 58.4

|====================================

10 - 15 20,760 39,966.77 13.1 71.5 |=============

15 - 20 15,311 22,918.21 7.5 79.0 |=======

20 - 25 13,873 21,129.74 6.9 85.9 |======

25 - 30 11,734 14,684.89 4.8 90.8 |====

30 - 35 8,603 12,208.86 4.0 94.8 |====

35 - 40 5,406 7,078.20 2.3 97.1 |==

40 - 45 3,082 4,424.43 1.4 98.5 |=

45 - 50 1,387 2,654.56 0.9 99.4 |

50 - 55 512 806.27 0.3 99.7 |

55 - 60 191 613.90 0.2 99.9 |

60 - 65 67 221.49 0.1 99.9 |

65 - 70 19 186.73 0.1 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.67 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 101,036

Total Sum = 305,137

Mean = 12.72

@I=J = 30,272.85



------------------------------------------

FREQUENCY (Iter=10) NON HOME BOUND TRIPS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION


MW[11] Accum


---------------------------------------------------------------

0 - 5 1,936 43,747.46 17.7 17.7 |=================

5 - 10 19,606 115,908.69 46.9 64.7

|==============================================

10 - 15 21,975 56,744.72 23.0 87.6 |======================

15 - 20 15,818 12,957.96 5.2 92.9 |=====

20 - 25 14,366 7,541.58 3.1 95.9 |===

25 - 30 12,179 5,138.72 2.1 98.0 |==

30 - 35 8,836 3,367.09 1.4 99.4 |=

61

35 - 40 5,537 1,074.64 0.4 99.8 |

40 - 45 3,155 344.14 0.1 100.0 |

45 - 50 1,395 67.13 0.0 100.0 |

50 - 55 518 14.98 0.0 100.0 |

55 - 60 192 4.76 0.0 100.0 |

60 - 65 67 4.03 0.0 100.0 |

65 - 70 19 1.11 0.0 100.0 |

70 - 75 1 0.00 0.0 100.0 |

75 - 80 -- -- -- 100.0 |

80+ -- -- -- 100.0 |

--------------------------------------

Total Obs = 105,600

Total Sum = 246,917

Mean = 9.88

@I=J = 30,167.05

62

Item 6- Loaded Network 2010

63

Item 7- Loaded Network 2040

Report: Champaign County, IL Transportation Needs by 2040

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Transcript of Report: Champaign County, IL Transportation Needs by 2040