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RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY16 18 JAN 2016

LIC Housing FinanceBUY

Steady as everLIC Housing Finances (LICHF) 3Q core earnings beat

was driven by steady NIM and loan growth. With

higher competition, individual loan repayments were

at a multi-quarter high. Rising proportion of high-

yielding LAP and project finance, along with the

decline in CoF, supported steady spread/NIM. While

project loan disbursements continued their steady

run, the growth in individual loans was led by the

LAP segment. Asset quality, too, remained stable.

LICHFs focus on high-yielding LAP and project loans,

coupled with the fall in CoF, augur well for spreads.

However, given the rising competition (sharp base

rate reductions by banks), we have further

moderated our NIM expectations to ~2.4% vs. 2.5%

and book growth to ~16% CAGR vs. ~17%. Maintain

BUY with a revised TP of Rs 550 (2.4x 1-year forward

ABV of Rs 229).

Key takeaways

Slower Individual disbursements (12% YoY; ex LAP

at ~7% YoY) and higher repayments (4.4%) led to

individual loan growth of ~15% (vs. our estimate of

~16%). The high-yielding LAP portfolio grew ~17%

QoQ to form ~6.4%, and the project finance grew

~3% QoQ to ~2.6%. With rising competition, we

have lowered loan growth assumption to ~16%

CAGR vs. 17.5% over FY15-18E.

Decline in interest rates and shift in borrowing mixled to 11bps decline in CoF. Despite rising

proportion of high-yielding loans, yields declined

~12bps QoQ, led by ~30bps reduction in PLR. This

lead to stable spread/NIM of ~1.57/2.58%.

While the continued decline in interest rates and

focus towards high-yielding loans will benefit

LICHF, we believe the competition will keep

yields under pressure. We lower NIM estimates

to 2.4% vs. 2.5% (earlier) over FY15-18E.

Financial Summary

(Rs mn) 3QFY16 3QFY15 YoY (%) 2QFY16 QoQ (%) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Net Interest Income 7,469 5,486 36.2 7,169 4.2 22,364 29,254 33,018 37,121

PPOP 6,804 5,283 28.8 6,743 0.9 21,092 27,377 30,849 34,507

PAT 4,189 3,443 21.7 4,117 1.7 13,862 17,080 18,930 21,077

EPS (Rs) 8.3 6.8 21.7 8.2 1.7 27.5 33.8 37.5 41.7

ROAE (%) 18.1 20.1 19.1 18.3

ROAA (%) 1.43 1.52 1.46 1.40

Adj. BVPS (Rs) 150.2 176.1 205.8 236.9

P/ABV (x) 3.09 2.63 2.25 1.96

P/E (x) 16.9 13.7 12.4 11.1Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY NBFCs

CMP (as on 18 Jan 2016) Rs 464

Target Price Rs 550

Nifty 8,238

Sensex 27,215

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg/Reuters LICHF IN/LICH.BO

No. of Shares (mn) 505

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 250/3,848

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 1,130

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 526/320

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 6.8 9.7 51.0

Relative (%) 11.2 14.7 46.3

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 40.31

FIs & Local MFs 7.58

FIIs 35.01

Public & Others 17.10

Source : BSE

Darpin Shah

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7328

Siji [email protected]

+91-22-6171-7324

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also avai lable on Bloomberg HSLB & Thomson Reuters

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LIC HOUSING FINANCE : RESULTS REVIEW 3QFY16

Asset quality remained stable over the past three

quarters with G/NNPA at 0.58/0.32% to Rs 6.8bn.

Individual GNPAs (Rs 3.65bn) marginally declined

to 32bps vs. 33bps. Project loans GNPAs, too,

were flat QoQ at Rs 3.2bn (10.2% of projectloans). Provisions cost jumped ~15% QoQ to Rs

344mn led by higher std. assets provisions

(towards LAP and project loan segments) and

shift in NPL buckets.

We expect LICHFs NII to grow at 18% CAGR over

FY15-18E, driven by loan growth of ~16% CAGR

and avg. NIM of 2.4% (vs. 2.2% in FY15). With

rising provisions cost (std. assets related and

base effect), we expect PAT to grow at ~15%CAGR. LICHFs return ratios are expected to

remain stable with RoA of ~1.5% and RoE of

~19%.

PABV Band Chart

Source: Company

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Five Quarters At A Glance(Rs mn) 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 YoY Growth QoQ Growth

Net Interest Income 5,486 6,498 6,589 7,169 7,469 36.2% 4.2%

Non-interest Income 680 604 481 633 549 -19.2% -13.2%

Operating income 6,166 7,102 7,069 7,803 8,018 30.0% 2.8%

Operating expenses 882 1,246 835 1,060 1,214 37.6% 14.5%

Pre-provision profits 5,283 5,856 6,234 6,743 6,804 28.8% 0.9%Provisions and contingencies 68 103 443 301 344 406.0% 14.6%

PBT 5,215 5,753 5,790 6,442 6,460 23.9% 0.3%

Provision for Tax 1,772 1,971 1,969 2,325 2,271 28.2% -2.3%

PAT 3,443 3,782 3,821 4,117 4,189 21.7% 1.7%

Balance Sheet items

Disbursements (Rs bn) 76.3 99.4 61.2 82.7 84.2 10.3% 1.9%

Individual (Rs bn) 71.8 95.5 59.4 79.4 80.7 12.3% 1.5%

Projects (Rs bn) 4.5 3.9 1.8 3.2 3.5 -21.0% 9.9%

Loan Book (Rs bn) 1,019.4 1,083.6 1,104.1 1,140.7 1,174.0 15.2% 2.9%

Individual (Rs bn) 993.6 1,056.3 1,077.0 1,110.8 1,143.1 15.0% 2.9%Projects (Rs bn) 25.8 27.3 27.1 29.9 30.9 19.7% 3.3%

Borrowings (Rs bn) 906 965 977 1,016 1,038 14.6% 2.1%

Profitability

Yield on Advances (%) 10.70 10.65 10.84 10.87 10.75 5 bps -12 bps

Cost of Funds (%) 9.49 9.19 9.38 9.29 9.18 -31 bps -11 bps

Spreads 1.21 1.46 1.46 1.58 1.57 36 bps -1 bps

NIM (%) 2.20 2.47 2.41 2.56 2.58 38 bps 2 bps

Cost-Income ratio (%) 14.3 17.5 11.8 13.6 15.1 83 bps 155 bps

Tax rate (%) 34.0 34.3 34.0 36.1 35.2 119 bps -93 bps

Asset quality

Gross NPA (Rsmn) 5,795 4,947 6,591 6,830 6,820 17.7% -0.1%

Net NPA (Rsmn) 3,166 2,344 3,598 3,690 3,740 18.1% 1.4%

Gross NPAs (%) 0.57 0.46 0.60 0.60 0.58 1 bps -2 bps

Net NPAs (%) 0.31 0.22 0.33 0.32 0.32 1 bps 0 bps

Individual Gross NPAs (%) 0.33 0.24 0.36 0.33 0.32 -1 bps -1 bps

Coverage ratio (%) 45.4 52.6 45.4 46.0 45.2 -22 bps -81 bps

Change In Estimates

Rs mnFY16E FY17E

Old New Change Old New Change

NII 29,725 29,254 -1.6% 34,383 33,018 -4.0%

PPOP 28,164 27,377 -2.8% 32,514 30,849 -5.1%

PAT 17,431 17,080 -2.0% 20,154 18,930 -6.1%Adj. BVPS (Rs) 179.2 176.1 -1.8% 210.7 205.8 -2.3%

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Led by loan growth of 15% and NIM

improvement of ~38bps to 2.58%

Processing fees grew +16% YoY

Led by staff (19% YoY and QoQ) and

advertising expenses

LAP/project loan portfolio stood at

6.4/2.6%. Repayment ratio further

inched up to 4.4% vs. 3.1% YoY and

4.2% QoQ

Bank borrowings declined to 12.5%

Incremental spreads at 2.1% (led by

~43bps lower CoF (vs. the reported

nos) and yield s ~10bps higher vs.

the reported nos.

Project loans NPLs at Rs 3.2bn and

individual at Rs 3.7bn

Higher provisions led by Std assets

provisions on LAP and project loans

Individual GNPA at 32bps vs. 33bps

QoQ

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Individual Disbursements Led By LAP Overall Disbursals Grew 10/2% YoY/QoQ

Source: Company Source: Company

Loan Growth Book Driven By Individual Segment Project Loans (%) Stable QoQ At 2.6%


Disbursements for project loans

up 10% QoQ to Rs 3.2bn

LAP disbursements (~Rs 14bn)

drove the individualdisbursements (+12/1.5%

YoY/QoQ)

Ex. LAP, individual disbursements

grew ~7% YoY

Overall disbursement grew 10%

YoY and 2% QoQ

Loan growth remains driven byindividual loans (97.4% of book)

up 15% YoY and 3% QoQ

Share of project loans was stable

QoQ at2.6%

LAP book stood at ~6.4% vs. 5.6%

QoQ

The management is hinting at

increasing the share of high-

yielding segments to form ~10%

of loans

Floating loans ~40%; re-pricing of

Rs 80bn in 4QFY16 and Rs 150bn

each in FY17 and FY18.

0

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NIM Continues To Improve Sequentially Asset Quality Stable QoQ


Peer Valuations

NBFCMcap

(Rs bn)

CMP

(Rs)Reco

TP

(Rs)

ABV (Rs) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) ROAE (%) ROAA (%)

FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E

CIFC 93 599 BUY 718 187 220 259 17.9 14.5 12.1 3.21 2.73 2.31 16.6 16.6 17.3 2.05 2.18 2.21

LICHF 234 464 BUY 550 176 206 237 13.7 12.4 11.1 2.63 2.25 1.96 20.1 19.0 18.3 1.52 1.46 1.40

MMFS 122 216 NEU 261 87 97 105 15.1 12.0 11.2 2.40 2.14 1.98 13.1 14.9 14.4 2.09 2.32 2.17

SCUF 92 1,402 BUY 1,974 634 718 809 14.3 11.7 10.1 2.21 1.95 1.73 14.7 15.7 15.9 3.29 3.43 3.37

SHTF 174 767 BUY 1,034 397 449 480 14.2 11.9 10.3 1.93 1.71 1.60 12.5 13.4 13.8 2.02 2.18 2.27

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Led by rising proportion of high-

yielding LAP and project finance

book, coupled with decline in CoF,

spreads improved 36bpsYoY

NIM improved 38bps YoY and2bps QoQ to 2.56%

Stable asset quality with

GNPA/NNPA at 0.6%/0.32%

Individual GNPAs stood at 32bps

vs. 33bps in 2Q

Project loan NPAs were flat QoQat Rs 3.16bn (10.2% of loans).

0.80

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Income Statement

(Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Interest Earned 90,858 105,467 128,526 144,766 164,317

Interest Expended 71,744 83,102 99,272 111,748 127,196

Net Interest Income 19,114 22,364 29,254 33,018 37,121Other Income 2,488 2,520 2,907 3,344 3,836

Total Income 21,602 24,884 32,161 36,362 40,957

Total Operating Exp 3,133 3,792 4,783 5,513 6,450

Employee Expense 1,038 1,293 1,481 1,717 2,009

PPOP 18,470 21,092 27,377 30,849 34,507

Provisions & Contingencies 215 72 1,499 1,948 2,329

PBT 18,255 21,020 25,878 28,901 32,178

Provision for Tax 5,083 7,158 8,799 9,971 11,101

PAT 13,172 13,862 17,080 18,930 21,077

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share capital 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010 1,010

Reserves and surplus 74,319 77,174 90,640 105,564 122,180Shareholders Funds 75,329 78,184 91,650 106,573 123,190

Long-term debt 677,123 805,186 924,353 1,070,401 1,247,017

Current maturity of long term 119,902 141,104 161,988 187,582 218,533

Short term 37,381 26,980 30,973 35,867 41,785

Total debt 834,407 973,270 1,117,314 1,293,849 1,507,335

Long-term provisions 7,954 10,194 11,204 12,480 14,053

Total 917,690 1,061,648 1,220,168 1,412,903 1,644,578

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Fixed Assets & WIP 756 797 836 878 922

Non-current investments 1,991 2,371 2,371 2,371 2,371

Current investments 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash and cash equivalents 30,224 29,331 23,548 17,190 3,753

Advances 915,303 1,085,117 1,242,459 1,441,252 1,686,265

Other current assets 6,929 7,835 8,293 8,796 9,110

Total current assets (ex-cash) 6,931 7,835 8,293 8,796 9,110

Other current liabilities 40,081 57,112 57,340 57,583 57,844

Net Current Assets (33,149) (49,277) (49,047) (48,788) (48,733)

Net Deferred tax 2,566 (6,690) - - -

Total assets 917,690 1,061,648 1,220,168 1,412,903 1,644,578

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Key Ratios

FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

VALUATION RATIOS

EPS 26.1 27.5 33.8 37.5 41.7

Earnings Growth (%) 28.7 5.2 23.2 10.8 11.3BVPS 149.2 154.8 181.5 211.0 243.9

Adj. BVPS (100% cover) 142.2 150.2 176.1 205.8 236.9

ROAA (%) 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4

ROAE (%) 18.8 18.1 20.1 19.1 18.3

P/E (x) 17.8 16.9 13.7 12.4 11.1

P/ABV (x) 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.0

P/PPOP (x) 12.7 11.1 8.6 7.6 6.8

Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6

PROFITABILITY

Yield on Advances (%) 10.70 10.54 10.34 10.04 9.74Cost of Funds (%) 9.51 9.31 8.96 8.71 8.51

Core Spread (%) 1.19 1.24 1.39 1.34 1.24

NIM (%) 2.20 2.17 2.46 2.42 2.36

OPERATING EFFICIENCY

Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Cost-Income Ratio 14.5 15.2 14.9 15.2 15.7

BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE

RATIOS

Loan Growth (%) 17.4 18.6 14.5 16.0 17.0

Borrowing Growth (%) 19.3 17.7 14.8 15.8 16.5Equity/Assets (%) 8.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6

Equity/Loans (%) 9.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2

Total Capital Adequacy Ratio

(CAR)16.4 15.3 16.0 15.5 15.0

Tier I CAR 12.2 11.8 12.2 12.3 12.2

FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

ASSET QUALITY

Gross NPLs (Rsm) 6,090 4,947 6,834 7,206 8,431

Net NPLs (Rsm) 3,536 2,344 2,732 2,656 3,552Gross NPLs (%) 0.67 0.46 0.55 0.50 0.50

Net NPLs (%) 0.39 0.22 0.22 0.18 0.21

Coverage Ratio (%) 41.9 52.6 60.0 63.1 57.9

Provision/Avg. Loans (%) 0.03 0.01 0.13 0.15 0.15

RoAA TREE (%)

Net Interest Income 2.32 2.31 2.61 2.55 2.47

Non Interest Income 0.30 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26

Operating Cost 0.38 0.39 0.43 0.43 0.43

Provisions 0.03 0.01 0.13 0.15 0.15

Tax 0.62 0.74 0.78 0.77 0.74ROAA 1.60 1.43 1.52 1.46 1.40

Leverage (x) 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.1 13.1

ROAE 18.8 18.1 20.1 19.1 18.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Rating Definitions

BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period

SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target

15-Jan-15 465 BUY 520

20-Apr-15 442 BUY 528

21-Jul-15 465 BUY 528

16-Oct-15 495 BUY 56918-Jan-16 464 BUY 550

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

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LIC Housing Finance TP

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Disclosure:We, Darpin Shah, MBA & Siji Philip, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our viewsabout the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in thisreport.Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or itsAssociate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. FurtherResearch Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock No

Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled orarrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation ofwarranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for informationpurposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as anoffer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in anylocality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC SecuritiesLtd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may notbe reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd .Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived

from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for,any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies)mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of thecompany(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation andother related information and opinions.HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any actiontaken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend orincome, etc.HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, ormay make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any otherassignment in the past twelve months.

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HDFC securities

Institutional Equities

Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,

Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com

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