Rental Housing Journal Colorado March 2016

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Monthly Circulation To More Than 7,000 Apartment Owners, Property Managers, On-Site & Maintenance Personnel

Www.rentalhousingjournal.com • Professional Publishing, Inc

Advertise in Rental Housing Journal ColoradoCirculated to over 7,000 apartment owners, on-site and

maintenance personnel monthly.

Call 503-221-1260 for more information

2. Rents to Flatten in 2016

3. Fair Housing Facts & Tips

continued on page 7

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Rental Housing Journal Colorado March 2016 - Vol. 8 Issue 3

4. Ask the Secret Shopper – Ready Vacants

Payroll Job SummaryTotal Payrolls 1,396.7mAnnual Change 28.2m (2.9%)RCR 2016 Forecast 32.0m (2.3%)RCR 2017 Forecast 40.0m (2.8%)RCR 2018 Forecast 35.9m (2.5%)RCR 2019 Forecast 29.3m (2.0%)RCR 2020 Forecast 27.2m (1.8%)Unemployment (NSA) 3.1% (Dec.)

4Q15 Payroll Trends And ForecastDenver payroll employment growth

decelerated for the third consecutive quarter, slowing to a 28,200-job, 2.1% year-on-year pace, down from 1Q15’s 50,900-job, 3.9% cycle peak and the 3Q15’s 34,500-job, 2.5% performance. Weakness in the oil and gas sector is largely responsible, giving rise to so� er conditions in the manufacturing and non-high tech related components of the business services sector. In addi-tion, data indicate that conditions in industries driven by population and disposable income growth — retail trade, health care, government and leisure services — also weakened, sug-gesting that spot labor, housing and commercial real estate shortages and other resource constraints are develop-ing, fettering Denver’s unusually rapid economic expansion.

Indeed, home price in� ation accel-erated in the second half of the year,

Multifamily Housing Update

Denver, CO

4Q15 Market Overview

Commercial Real Estate ExpertsModerate Expansion, Easing Prices Expected in 2016

Despite various global and do-mestic hurdles hindering eco-nomic growth, steady job gains

and stable leasing demand should help keep commercial real estate activity expanding in 2016, according to the authors of an annual report published jointly by Situs Real Estate Research Corporation (RERC), Deloitte and the National Association of Realtors®.

According to the report, Expecta-tions & Market Realities in Real Estate 2016—Navigating through the Cross-currents, commercial real estate activi-ty is forecast to gradually grow this year with demand for space holding steady across all commercial sectors. While commercial property values and price gains are expected to � atten a� er sur-passing 2007 peaks in some major mar-kets, investors will still bene� t from the strong income � ows generated from new and existing leases.

� e � � h annual release of the joint report draws on the three organiza-tions’ respective research and expert

analysis and o� ers an objective outlook on commercial real estate through fore-casts and commentary on the current economy, capital markets and com-mercial real estate property markets. A research-based assessment of the o� ce, industrial, apartment, retail and hotel property sectors is also provided.

“Historically low interest rates, es-pecially in treasuries, combined with commercial real estate’s stable prices

and value make this asset an attractive investment,” says Ken Riggs, president of Situs RERC. “Looking into 2016, the commercial real estate market should moderate, which could stabilize prices.”

Vacancies are expected to contin-ue to decline slightly in 2016 for all property types, except in the apart-ment sector, where they are forecast

EPA Cracks Down OnLead Violations

By Jo BeckerEducation/Outreach Specialist, Fair Housing Council of Oregon

Late last year the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) an-nounced it took action against 75

renovation contractors and others to protect people from harmful lead dust and debris exposure, as required by fed-eral Lead-based Paint Renovation, Re-pair, and Painting (RRP) regulations.

� ese cases show EPA is cracking down on businesses and renovators who ignore federal requirements that have been in e� ect for several years now. � ese requirements apply to many repairs and renovations done to painted surfaces in homes and daycare facilities built prior to 1978. Pre-78 properties are of concern, as they are a major source of lead exposure that can

cause lead poisoning, especially in our nation’s young children.

� e RRP Rule, which is part of the federal Toxic Substances Control Act, is intended to ensure that owners and occupants of pre-1978 “target housing” and “child-occupied facilities” receive information on lead-based paint haz-ards before renovations begin, that in-dividuals performing such renovations

are properly trained and certi� ed, and that renovators follow speci� cally pre-scribed lead-safe work practices to re-duce the potential for exposure to lead for all, including workers.

Renovators are required to give the pamphlet to property owners and oc-cupants within 60 days before start-ing a renovation. Housing providers,

Advertise in Rental Housing Journal ColoradoCirculated to over 7,000 apartment owners, on-site and maintenance personnel monthly.

Call 503-221-1260 for more informationwww. re n t a l h o u s i n g j o u r n a l .co m

2

Rental Housing Journal Colorado

Rental Housing Journal Colorado · March 2016

Rents to Flatten in 2016A� er years of record rent appre-

ciation, Zillow’s rental forecast shows relief in sight for cash-

strapped renters.

• National median rent at the end of 2015 was $1,381, and is expected to increase slightly to $1,396 over the next 12 months.

• � e slowdown in rents means that, by the end of the year, they will be rising at a slower pace than incomes in many markets.

• In December, home values rose 4 percent to a Zillow Home Value In-dex of $183,500.

Rent appreciation will level o� over the next 12 months, slowing to an an-

2015. Zillow forecasts rent in San Fran-cisco will grow half as fast in 2016 -- 5.9 percent.

Even with the slowdown, rents will remain una� ordable in many of the major markets across the U.S., espe-cially on the West Coast. Renters in San Francisco and Los Angeles can expect to spend 40 percent of their income on a rental paymentiii.

“Hot markets are still going to be hot in 2016, but rents won’t rise as quickly as they have been,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “� e slowdown in rental appreciation will provide some relief for renters who’ve been seeing their rents rise dramatically every single year for the past few years. However, the situation remains tough

Metropolitan Area Dec. 2015 ZHVI Dec. 2015 ZRI ZRI Forecast for Dec. 2016 Forecasted Di� erence Between Dec. 2015 ZRI and Dec. 2016 ZRI

United States $183,500 $1,381 $1,396 1.1%New York/Northern New Jersey $381,200 $2,384 $2,400 0.7%

Los Angeles, CA $554,700 $2,491 $2,561 2.8%Chicago, IL $193,000 $1,633 $1,611 -1.4%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX $177,200 $1,500 $1,532 2.1%Philadelphia, PA $203,100 $1,558 $1,550 -0.5%

Houston, TX $170,100 $1,579 $1,619 2.5%Washington, DC $357,800 $2,107 $2,118 0.5%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL $225,700 $1,822 $1,886 3.5%Atlanta, GA $160,000 $1,274 $1,280 0.5%Boston, MA $382,900 $2,247 $2,309 2.7%

San Francisco, CA $785,800 $3,338 $3,536 5.9%Detroit, MI $121,800 $1,132 $1,128 -0.4%

Riverside, CA $298,200 $1,691 $1,723 1.9%Phoenix, AZ $216,000 $1,249 $1,266 1.4%Seattle, WA $368,700 $1,931 $2,018 4.5%

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN $214,300 $1,500 $1,511 0.8%San Diego, CA $499,900 $2,316 $2,348 1.4%St. Louis, MO $141,000 $1,123 $1,115 -0.7%

Tampa, FL $160,100 $1,296 $1,302 0.5%Baltimore, MD $242,300 $1,714 $1,702 -0.7%

Denver, CO $320,800 $1,952 $2,031 4.0%Pittsburgh, PA $126,700 $1,090 $1,079 -1.0%Portland, OR $310,200 $1,689 $1,753 3.8%Charlotte, NC $157,800 $1,221 $1,250 2.4%

Sacramento, CA $331,500 $1,599 $1,654 3.4%San Antonio, TX $148,000 $1,301 $1,306 0.4%

Orlando, FL $180,600 $1,343 $1,373 2.2%Cincinnati, OH $141,800 $1,225 $1,243 1.5%Cleveland, OH $124,300 $1,124 $1,117 -0.6%

Kansas City, MO $146,600 $1,199 $1,228 2.4%Las Vegas, NV $199,800 $1,212 $1,191 -1.8%Columbus, OH $150,900 $1,271 $1,289 1.4%

Indianapolis, IN $130,100 $1,181 $1,138 -3.6%San Jose, CA $933,000 $3,431 $3,699 7.8%Austin, TX $242,900 $1,683 $1,741 3.4%

Source Zillow

nual rate of 1.1 percent by December 2016, according to the new Zillow® Rent Forecasti. � e national Zillow Rent In-dexii at the end of 2016 is projected to be $1,396 -- compared to $1,381 in De-cember 2015.

Zillow is forecasting a decrease in the rate of rental appreciation amid a rent-al a� ordability crisis that has renters in some markets spending almost half of their income on rent. Some of the fast-est growing metros had double-digit annual rental appreciation at the end of 2015.

Zillow expects rental appreciation to slow down most signi� cantly in Nash-ville, Tenn., San Francisco, Portland, Ore. and Denver. Rents in San Fran-cisco saw 12.5 percent appreciation in

on the ground: rents are still rising and renters are struggling to keep up.”

� e slowdown in rental appreciation indicates that supply of new multi-fam-ily homes is catching up to demand. Substantial new housing supply is be-coming available in Atlanta, Denver, Portland, Seattle, and other markets.

� e Zillow Home Value Index rose 4 percent year-over-year in Decem-ber 2015, to $183,500, according to the Zillow® December Real Estate Mar-ket Reportsiv.

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CHECK-IN/CHECK-OUT CONDITION REPORTTENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________

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CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _________________ellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor

Rating Scale = (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor

Rating Scale = (E)Exc (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor

Rating Scale = (E)Exc (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor

Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor




Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor In Out

In OutBEDROOM 3

Walls

Windows

Blinds/Drapes

Rods

Floor

Light Fixtures

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Locks

Ceilings

Electric Outlets

Smoke Detectors

BATH ROOMFireplace

Towel BarsCleanliness

Sink & Vanity

ToiletBEDROOM 1

BEDROOM 2Tub/Shower

Walls

Walls

Fan (Exhaust)Windows

WindowsFloor

Blinds/DrapesBlinds/Drapes

Electric OutletsRods

Rods

Light FixturesFloor

FloorLight Fixtures

Light FixturesEssential ServicesEssential Services

Doors/WoodworkDoors/Woodwork

PlumbingLocks

Locks

HeatingCeilings

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Hot WaterSmoke Detectors

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WA-RTG-20 Washington

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TENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________

ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNIT: ______________

CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _________________ (G)Good (F)Fair ( (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor

Out

BEDROOM 3

Walls

Windows

Blinds/Drapes

Rods

Floor

Light Fixtures

Doors/Woodwork

Locks

Ceilings

Electric Outlets

Smoke Detectors

(G)Good (F)Fair (

48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DATE:________

ADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNIT: _________

CITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________ ZIP: _________48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRY

Pursuant to RCW 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your landlord or their agents will be

entering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)______________________________________________________________________________on between the hours of and . (Date) (Time) (Time)The entry will occur for the following purpose:______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

Landlord Phone

Method of Service: Personal Service: *

* Add one additional day for compliance if served by post and mail.



48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UCITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________

48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYPursuant to RCW 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your laentering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)______________________________________________________________________________ between the hours of (Date) (Time)

The entry will occur for the following purpose:______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________ Landlord Phone

Method of Service: Personal Service:

* Add one additional day for compliance if served by post and m

48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UCITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________

48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYPursuant to RCW 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your laentering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)______________________________________________________________________________ between the hours of (Date) (Time)

The entry will occur for the following purpose:______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________ Landlord Phone

Method of Service: Personal Service:

* Add one additional day for compliance if served by post and m

CHECK-IN/CHECK-OUT CONDITION REPORTTENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNIT: ______________CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _________________Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor IN Out In Out In OutLIVING AREAS

BEDROOM 3Walls

Windows

Blinds/Drapes

Rods

Floor

Light Fixtures

Doors/Woodwork

Locks

Ceilings

Electric Outlets

BATH ROOMTowel Bars

Sink & Vanity

ToiletBEDROOM 1 BEDROOM 2 Tub/ShowerWalls Walls Fan (Exhaust)Windows Windows FloorBlinds/Drapes Blinds/Drapes Electric OutletsRods Rods Light FixturesFloor FloorLight Fixtures Light Fixtures Essential ServicesEssential ServicesDoors/Woodwork Doors/Woodwork PlumbingLocks Locks HeatingCeilings Ceilings ElectricityElectrical Outlets Electric Outlets Hot Water

Smoke Detectors

OR-RTG-20 Oregon


CHECK-IN/CHECK-OUT CONDITION REPORTTENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNIT: ______________CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _____________Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (V(E)Excellent (V(E)Excellent (V(E)Excellent (V(E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)FG) Very Good (G)Good (F)FG) Very Good (G)Good (F)FG) Very Good (G)Good (F)F

IN OutLIVING AREAS

PET AGREEMENTTENANT INFORMATION

TENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DATE:________ADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNIT: _________CITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________ ZIP: _________

DESCRIPTION OF PET(S)

1) Type _______________ Breed _______________ Size ______ Age __ Weight ___ Color ____ Name ________ Vaccinations: Yes____ No____ License Number: ______________



Additional Security Deposit Required:$

AGREEMENTTenant(s) certify that the above pet(s) are the only pet(s) on the premises. Tenant(s) understands that the additional pet(s) are not permitted unless the landlord gives tenant(s) written permission. Tenant(s) agree to keep the above-listed pets in the premises subject to the following terms and conditions:

1) The pet(s) shall be on a leash or otherwise under tenant’s control when it is outside the tenant’s dwelling unit. 2) Tenant(s) shall promptly pick up all pet waste from the premises promptly. 3) Tenant(s) are responsible for the conduct of their pet(s) at all times. 4) Tenant(s) are liable for all damages caused by their pet(s). 5) Tenant(s) shall pay the additional security deposit listed above and/or their rental agreement as a condition to keeping the pet(s) listed above. 6) Tenant(s) shall not allow their pets to cause any sort of disturbance or injury to the other tenants, guests, landlord or any other persons lawfully on the premises. 7) Tenant(s) shall immediately report to landlord any type of damage or injury caused by their pet. 8) This agreement is incorporated into and shall become part of the rental agreement exe -cuted between the parties. Failure by tenant to comply with any part of this agreement shall constitute a material breach of the rental agreement.

_____________________________ ______________________________Landlord Tenant ______________________________ Tenant

OR-RTG-24 Oregon


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Fair Housing Facts & TipsThe Fair Housing Act protects

people from discrimination when they are renting, buying,

or securing � nancing for any housing transaction. � e Fair Housing Act spe-ci� cally cover’s discrimination because of race, color, national origin, religion, sex, disability and the presence of chil-dren. (Provided by HUD)

Fair housing laws prohibit illegal housing discrimination.

Discrimination is illegal in any hous-ing situation if it is based on, or ad-versely a� ects, a “protected class.” � at is, if someone is denied a home, is treat-ed di� erently, or is harassed because of one of the reasons listed below, it is illegal.

Consistency is Key!1. Remember to be consistent within

your daily job performance & In-teractions when dealing with res-idents, prospective residents and their guests

2. Never make assumptions regardinga. Disabilitiesb. If an animal is a companion or petc. Treat everyone the same!

Discrimination is sometimes deliber-ate or unintentional due to lack of Fair Housing knowledge toward residents, prospective residents & their guests that fall into any protected class category

More o� en than not discrimination occurs during the leasing process while dealing with prospective residents. BE CAREFUL!

� e information and purpose of leas-ing and Fair Housing is not to scare you out of the industry. It is an extremely important part of the job performance and expectation. Fair Housing classes will give you the understanding of pit-falls of falling into possible discrimina-tion in Fair Housing. It also prepares and gives the tools necessary to help avoid complaints.

Here are a few examples that oc-cur during leasing:

Example: Oh my, your children are beautiful! I have the perfect home for you on the ground � oor by the play-ground! I am so excited to show you this apartment

Intention: More than likely the leas-ing associate has the best intentions for the prospective residents, it is still DIS-CRIMATION.

Perception: � is is discrimination in the form of Steering, and could prompt a complaint.

Correct Action: Anyone applying for an apartment can live in any available unit and must be show the same apart-ments as anyone applying

Prevention: EDUCATE, EDUCATE, EDUCATE! It is necessary to make cer-tain that the associates working for you are knowledgeable and trained to mini-mize the risk to you and your company Discrimination is Discrimination!

Unfortunately, even the best of in-tentions of the leasing consultant can put them, the owner and Management Company at risk. Make no mistake, Fair Housing and discrimination is real and happens.

Ignorance Of � e Law Is No Excuse!

Learn about the Federal, State and Local protected class on � e Fair Hous-ing website http://� co.org

My best advice is Document, Document, and Document!

DocumentationHow does documentation have the

potential for a complaint?Example: You may have a star on

one guest card and not another or you may have written she is so sweet make a great resident!

Intention: You really liked that pros-pect and really thought they would make a great resident and noted as much on their guest card

Perception: � is could be construed as discrimination base on the fact that these types of doodles and or com-ments were not present on all guest cards. � ese guest cards would be brought into question should a com-plaint be � led

Remember not to doodle or make marks on applications, guest cards or any paperwork related to prospect or resident

Fair Housing Laws apply to:

• Owner / Agents

• Property Management Companies

• Maintenance, Leasing & Adminis-trative sta�

• Outside Vendors such as Landscap-ers, Painters,

• Exterminators, Insurers, etc.

• Real Estate Agents, Brokers, Lenders

• Homeowners & Condo Associa-tions

• Individuals, Corporate & Business Owners

• Architects, Builders, Developers, Engineers

• Responsibility is non-delegable

• Ignorance of the law is no excuse

A couple of thoughts, ask your as-sociates and how they would address these scenarios in the leasing process? (In red are common answers and or thoughts your will receive from the well intentioned leasing associates and are discriminatory, in my experience during training)

• Women with 2 young children? Do not make assumptions!

. � is women and children will be quite, I can put them upstairs

• Married couple with 2 teen aged boys?

. � ose boy are going to be trouble• Married couple with 1 teen aged

girl?

. Quite residents

Discrimination is real and can be prevented! by Dana Brown – EDGE Training – Full Spectrum Residential Services, LLC [email protected] or503-740-8432

Color

PublisherWill Johnson – [email protected]

Designer/EditorKristin Flores – [email protected]

Advertising SalesWill Johnson – [email protected]

Terry Hokenson – [email protected] Surratt – [email protected]

Rental Housing Journal Colorado is a monthly publication published by Professional Publishing Inc., publishers of Real Estate Opportunities in

Investing & Real Estate Investor Quarterly

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The statements and representations made in advertising and news articles contained in this publication are those of the advertiser and authors and as such do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Professional Publishing, Inc. The inclusion of advertising in this publications does not, in any way, comport an endorsement of or support for the products or services offered. To request a reprint or reprint rights contact Professional Publishing Inc. PO Box 6244 Beaverton, OR 97007. (503) 221-1260 - (800) 398-6751 © 2015 All rights reserved.

4



Ready Vacants

While market conditions re-main strong, there may be times when you � nd yourself

in a situation where you have no apart-ments to show. Maybe you don’t have a model or you’re in a make ready pro-cess with the vacant apartments that are available. Here is the question:

QI know I shouldn’t show an apart-

ment that isn’t ready, but I hate to ask someone to come back. Everyone is so busy I just don’t think they’ll make the time to come back for another visit. What can I do?

AFirst of all, you do not have to show

an apartment in order to rent one. While many people are “visual” and having a model or vacant apartment to show may seem like an advantage, it is not the only sales tool you have at your

disposal. Here is what can happen when there is no apartment available to show:

With a diagram of a 2 bedroom, the consultant “walked me through” the apartment as though we were inside. She used the terms “you” and “yours” during the entire “visual” tour. She pointed out the various storage areas, and also showed me the shelf and cabi-net over the washer and dryer. � e con-sultant used descriptive words like “oak cabinetry” and “spacious breakfast bar.” She mentioned the wood-burn-ing � replace and vaulted ceilings, and pointed out the � replace and indicated where the ceiling begins to get higher. � e consultant also helped me visual-ize what type of furniture would � t in each room.

When the apartment “presentation” was completed, the consultant walked me over to the location of the upcom-ing apartment. She pointed out and described the amenities we saw along

the way and discussed the proximity of each one to the apartment. She in-dicated where I and my guests could park. Standing outside the apartment, the consultant pointed out other ad-vantages to this location. She drew my attention to the private patio, nearby fountain and lush landscaping. She also mentioned the friendly neighbors up-stairs and next door.

Once the leasing consultant con-� rmed I was pleased with what I had learned about the apartment and com-munity, she asked if I would like to put a hold on the apartment until it was ready to view. When I declined, she told me she understood my hesitation since I had not actually seen the apart-ment. However, she reminded me it was the only one she had coming available; without a deposit she couldn’t hold it for me. As I continued to hesitate, she told me my deposit would be fully re-fundable if I did not like the apartment once I saw it.

As you can see, having no apartment to show did not hamper the leasing consultant’s ability to sell AND close the sale! In fact, it was quite the oppo-site: She became even more creative in selling her product! She had the oppor-tunity to go the extra mile and “create a visual,” and she took advantage of

it. � e prospective renter in this situ-ation got a more comprehensive tour when there was no apartment available to show!

Remember: You only get one chance to make a good � rst impression. Sell-ing what you have to o� er will increase your leasing ratio. Rather than demon-strating a dirty apartment or asking the client to come back, put your product knowledge to the test: Give a thorough presentation with whatever sales tools you have at your disposal, and then close the sale. Once you rent that last vacant apartment sight unseen, you will have the con� dence to prelease all those upcoming notices . . .

If you are interested in leasing train-ing or have a question or concern you would like to see addressed, please reach out to me via e-mail. Otherwise, please contact Jancyn for your employ-ee evaluation needs: www.jancyn.com

ASK THE SECRET SHOPPER

Provided by: Joyce (Kirby) Bica

Former owner of Shoptalk Service Evaluations

Consultant to Jancyn Evaluation Shops

E-mail: [email protected]

Copyright © Joyce (Kirby) Bica

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Color

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4Q15 Market Overview ...continued from page 1

and RED Research models project that this growth constraint will continue for a year or more. We expect the Denver FHLA and Case-Shiller home price in-dices to advance at double-digit rates through mid- 2017, with negative impli-cations for MFH rent growth..

As for job creation, our econometric model indicates that DEN is near the end of the slowing cycle. � e 98.5% adj- R2 (SE=0.3%) model employs two lags of the dependent variable, the rate of change of US job growth, metro person-al income, GDP and oil price growth as variables. � e model expects DEN to stabilize in 1H16; return to high -2% annual growth through 2017; slowing a� erward.

Occupancy Rate SummaryOccupancy Rate (Reis) 94.9%RED 50 Rank 35th

Annual Chg. (Reis) -0.8%RCR YE16 Forecast 94.5%RCR YE17 Forecast 94.4%RCR YE18 Forecast 93.8%RCR YE19 Forecast 93.5%RCR YE20 Forecast 93.0%

4Q15 Absorption And Occupancy Rate Trends

Rental demand was seasonally strong as tenants net leased 1,308 units during 4Q15, according to Reis, about 100 few-er than expected (by the RCR demand model) under the circumstances. But supply was overwhelming (2,671 units) —more than 1,000 units greater than our supply model in-sample forecast — causing metro occupancy to plunge -60 basis points to 94.9%, the largest sequential decline posted since 1Q09. Declines were concentrated in submar-kets experiencing heavy supply deliver-ies, most notably North (-450 bps) and South (-420 bps) Denver.

Axiometrics surveys of larger, stabi-lized assets recorded somewhat weaker results, suggesting that supply pressures are greater among large assets. Met-ro occupancy averaged 94.5% during 4Q15, down -120 bps y-o-y. Class-C units su� ered a rare decline (-130 bps to 95.1%), but maintained higher levels than classes-A (94.2%) and –B (94.4%).

RCR’s demand model uses the rate of change of inventory and job growth (+) and home prices (-) to achieve a 91.8% ARS (SE=0.4%). � e result is optimistic, projecting annual absorption between 4,500 and 5,400 units through 2020. But inventory is expected to grow about 25% faster than demand, resulting in further occupancy attrition.

E� ective Rent SummaryMean Rent (Reis) $1,054Annual Change 6.8%RED 50 Rent Change Rank 5th

RCR YE16 Forecast 5.0%RCR YE17 Forecast 4.5%RCR YE18 Forecast 3.8%RCR YE19 Forecast 3.2%RCR YE20 Forecast 2.7%

4Q15 E� ective Rent TrendsDenver rent trends maintained an

above historical average trajectory during 4Q15, rising $13 (1.2%) sequen-tially to $1,054, according to Reis. � e strong performance was recorded de-spite a 60 basis point increase in va-cancy, an outcome that typically would

have given rise to a much smaller ad-vance. Percent gains were evenly dis-tributed between the class-A and class-B&C segments, suggesting that heavy class-A supply has not yet placed sig-ni� cant downward pressure on luxury product revenues.

Axiometrics surveys of large, sta-bilized same-store properties told a somewhat di� erent story. In this case, rent trends decelerated materially as 4Q sequential trends fell -$30 in 2015 from +$11 in 2014; and year-on-year comparisons slowed from 10.9% in 3Q15 to 7.5%. In this sample, the class -A segment was weakest, rising only 4.4% y-o-y, while classes-B (7.1%) and –C (10.5%) outperformed. � e rate of growth in each class, however, fell one-third sequentially.

� e RCR rent model suggests that growth is likely to decelerate further, but will continue at a faster pace than a majority of primary and secondary markets. Robust job growth and slow-er occupancy attrition should keep rent trends at or above 4% through mid-2018. Five-year annual compound growth of 3.9% is expected, third fastest among the RED 46 markets a� er New York (4.6%) and Portland (4.3%).

Trade & Return Summary$5mm+ / 80-unit+ Sales 33Approximate Proceeds $1.5bnAverage Cap Rate (FNM) 5.2%Average Price / Unit $176,607Expected Total Return 7.5%RED 46 ETR Rank 11th

Risk-adjusted Index 3.24RED 46 RAI Rank 34th

4Q15 Property Markets and Total Returns

A � urry of year-end closings pushed Denver transaction velocity and sales proceeds to record levels during 4Q15 as managed funds, private equity in-vestors and private owner/managers went to great lengths to add Denver exposure, while a similarly distributed group of early entrants sought to take advantage of a “seller’s market” to se-cure attractive investment returns. A total of 33 sales were consummated during the period, equaling the previ-ous record set in 4Q14. Proceeds totaled over $1.53 billion, establishing a new quarterly high, topping the year earlier period’s $1.35 billion record.

Cap rates continued to drill lower. � e CoStar average declined to a 10-year low 5.26%, down about -40 bps year -on-year. Recent construction class-A properties traded in the low– to mid-4% range. Nineties vintage assets commanded prices equating to mid-4% to mid-5% yields. Value-add plays found buyers in the low– to high-5 area.

RCR trimmed -30 bps from the cap rate proxy to 5% to re� ect current con-ditions. At this level and model derived rent and occupancy point estimates, we calculate that a DEN investor would expect to earn a 7.5% annual IRR over 5-years, ranked #11 among the RED 46. Cap rate compression cut returns by-40 bps. High rent model standard error hindered risk-adjusted returns to peer group 34th rank.By Daniel J HoganDirector of [email protected] O� ce1-800-837-5100 Toll Free

continued on page 6

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4Q15 Market Overview ...continued from page 5

The information contained in this report was prepared for general information purposes only and is not intended as legal, tax, accounting or � nancial advice, or recommendations to buy or sell cur-rencies or securities or to engage in any speci� c transactions. Information has been gathered from third party sources and has not been independently veri� ed or accepted by RED Capital Group. RED makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the informa-tion, assumptions, analyses or conclusions presented in the report. RED cannot be held responsible for any errors or misrepresentations contained in the report or in the information gathered from third party sources. Under no circumstances should any information contained herein be used or considered as an o� er or a solicitation of an o� er to participate in any particular transaction or strategy. Any reliance upon this information is solely and exclusively at your own risk. Please con-sult your own counsel, accountant or other advisor regarding your speci� c situation. Any views expressed herein are subject to change without notice due to market conditions and other factors.

continued on page 8

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Commercial Real Estate

to increase modestly by the end of the year as more new project completions come onto the market. Continued job growth, demand exceeding supply and limited new construction (outside of multifamily) should lead to rising rents and steady investor returns, which overall will shi� away from capital ap-preciation as price growth levels o� in many markets.

Continuing on the same slow trajec-tory seen for many years, the U.S. econ-omy – facing headwinds from a rising dollar, � nancial market volatility and geopolitical concerns – is forecast to grow at a rate of 2 percent to 3 percent in 2016, which is stronger than most global economies and enough to gen-erate around two million net new jobs over the next year. De� ationary pres-sures related to low gasoline and energy prices are expected to diminish by mid-2016, in part because of robust growth in apartment rents.

“Supported by solid hiring in most parts of the country, the demand for ownership and rental housing will con-tinue to increase in 2016 despite an-other year of meager economic expan-sion,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “While supply shortages will weigh on housing a� ordability and push home prices and rents higher, the housing sector will keep the U.S. econ-omy a� oat and lead the residential in-vestment component of GDP growth by up to 10 percent this year.”

SOURCE National Association of Realtors

...continued from page 1similarly, have obligations to notify residents prior to covered repairs and renovations, to share informational lit-erature with them, including a disclo-sure form, and to be lead-safe certi� ed or hire a contractor who is.

To protect yourself and your invest-ment, it’s important, that you assure the contractors you hire are in fact lead-safe certi� ed and complying with the EPA’s safe work practice require-ments. To learn more about what re-pairs are covered and what these work-safe practices are, visit http://www.epa.gov/sites/production/� les/documents/renovaterightbrochure.pdf.

� e EPA reported that rough two-thirds of the cases they recently settled involved failure to obtain EPA certi-� cation prior to conducting renova-tions. Over half the cases were relat-ed to violations of required safe work practice standards.

� e EPA states its aim in seeking pen-alties against RRP violators is to help deter other violations and to level the playing � eld for companies that do fol-low the law. Such � nes and settlements help eliminate the � nancial advantage a violator may get by underbidding com-petitors that are compliant.

You can read the full EPA media release here: http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa /ad mpress .nsf /0/0D3D2DBE-30561BAD85257EEB00698FC7

‘Looking for a lead-safe contractor or want to become certi� ed yourself in or-der to do work on your own properties? Call the Leadline for free information at 503/988-4000.

A reminder that although lead poi-soning is especially dangerous for kids, the fear of lead poisoning or lia-bility does not give housing providers the right to deny or discourage fami-lies with children away from pre-1978

housing. Familial status is a protected class under federal fair housing law1 and doing anything to deny or dis-courage otherwise quali� ed families is illegal. Visit www.FHCO.org for more information on this topic.

� is article brought to you by the Fair Housing Council; a civil rights organi-zation. All rights reserved © 2016.

Federally protected classes under the Fair Housing Act include: race, color, national origin, religion, sex, familial status (children), and disability. Or-egon law also protects marital status, source of income, sexual orientation, and domestic violence survivors. Addi-tional protected classes have been add-ed in particular geographic areas; visit www.FHCO.org for more information.

EPA Cracks Down On ...continued from page 1

Color

48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DATE:________ADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNIT: _________CITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________ ZIP: _________48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTRYPursuant to RCW 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your landlord or their agents will be

entering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)______________________________________________________________________________on between the hours of and . (Date) (Time) (Time)The entry will occur for the following purpose:______________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________ Landlord Phone

Method of Service: Personal Service: Post and Mail: ** Add one additional day for compliance if served by post and mail.



48-HOUR NOTICE OTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNI

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48-HOUR NOTICE OTENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNI

: _________________________________________ S

CHECK-IN/CHECK-OUT CONDITION REPORTTENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNIT: ______________CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _________________Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor IN Out In Out In OutLIVING AREAS KITCHEN BEDROOM 3Walls Walls Walls

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Towel BarsCleanlinessSink & Vanity

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Smoke Detectors

OR-RTG-20 Oregon

TENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNITE: ________ ZIP: ____________

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PET AGREEMENTTENANT INFORMATION

TENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DATE:________ADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNIT: _________CITY: _________________________________________ STATE: __________ ZIP: _________

DESCRIPTION OF PET(S)




Additional Security Deposit Required:$

AGREEMENTTenant(s) certify that the above pet(s) are the only pet(s) on the premises. Tenant(s) understands that the additional pet(s) are not permitted unless the landlord gives tenant(s) written permission. Tenant(s) agree to keep the above-listed pets in the premises subject to the following terms and conditions:

1) The pet(s) shall be on a leash or otherwise under tenant’s control when it is outside the tenant’s dwelling unit. 2) Tenant(s) shall promptly pick up all pet waste from the premises promptly. 3) Tenant(s) are responsible for the conduct of their pet(s) at all times. 4) Tenant(s) are liable for all damages caused by their pet(s). 5) Tenant(s) shall pay the additional security deposit listed above and/or their rental agreement as a condition to keeping the pet(s) listed above. 6) Tenant(s) shall not allow their pets to cause any sort of disturbance or injury to the other tenants, guests, landlord or any other persons lawfully on the premises. 7) Tenant(s) shall immediately report to landlord any type of damage or injury caused by their pet. 8) This agreement is incorporated into and shall become part of the rental agreement exe -cuted between the parties. Failure by tenant to comply with any part of this agreement shall constitute a material breach of the rental agreement.

_____________________________ ______________________________Landlord Tenant ______________________________ Tenant

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TE: __________ ZIP: _________48-HOUR NOTICE OF ENTF ENTF RYRYR 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your landlord or their agents will be

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______________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________ between the hours of and .ime) (Time)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________________

Phone

Post and Mail: * compliance if served by post and mail.

48-HOUR NOTICE O 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your landlord or their agents will be

entering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)___________________________________________________________________________ between the hours of (Time

The entry will occur for the following purpose:_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Post and Mail: compliance if served by post and mail

BEDROOM 3alls

Windows

Blinds/Drapes

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Floor

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Locks

Ceilings

Electric Outlets

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Sink & VanityVanityV

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Fan (Exhaust)

Electric Outlets

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Essential ServicesEssential ServicesPlumbing

48-HOUR NOTICE O 59.18.150, this is your 48 hour notice that your landlord or their agents will be

entering the dwelling unit and premises located at (Address)___________________________________________________________________________ between the hours of

The entry will occur for the following purpose:_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

compliance if served by post and mail

BEDROOM 3Walls

Windows

Blinds/Drapes

Rods

Floor

Light Fixtures

Doors/

Locks

Ceilings

Electric Outlets

BATH ROOMATH ROOMA

Towel BarsTowel BarsT

Sink &

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Tub/Shower

Fan (Exhaust)

Floor

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TENANT(S): ____________________________________________________ DATE:________ATE:________AADDRESS: ____________________________________________________ UNIT: _________

ATE: __________ ZIP: _________ATE: __________ ZIP: _________A

Weight ___ Color ____ Name ________Weight ___ Color ____ Name ________W



enant(s) certify that the above pet(s) are the only pet(s) on the premises. Tenant(s) Tenant(s) Tunderstands that the additional pet(s) are not permitted unless the landlord gives ten

enant(s) agree to keep the above-listed pets in the premises

The pet(s) shall be on a leash or otherwise under tenant’s control when it is outside the

enant(s) shall promptly pick up all pet waste from the premises promptly.enant(s) are responsible for the conduct of their pet(s) at all times.enant(s) are liable for all damages caused by their pet(s).enant(s) shall pay the additional security deposit listed above and/or their rental

agreement as a condition to keeping the pet(s) listed above.enant(s) shall not allow their pets to cause any sort of disturbance or injury to the

other tenants, guests, landlord or any other persons lawfully on the premises.enant(s) shall immediately report to landlord any type of damage or injury caused by

This agreement is incorporated into and shall become part of the rental agreement exe -cuted between the parties. Failure by tenant to comply with any part of this agreement shall constitute a material breach of the rental agreement.

______________________________enant

______________________________enant

TION of this form may be reproduced without written permission.

CHECK-IN/CHECK-OUT CONDITION REPORTTENANT(S): __________________________________________________________________ADDRESS: ________________________________________________UNIT: ______________CITY: ___________________________________ STATE: ________ ZIP: _________________Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor








Rating Scale = (E)Excellent (VG) Very Good (G)Good (F)Fair (P)Poor IN Out In Out In OutLIVING AREAS

KITCHENBEDROOM 3

WallsWalls

WallsWindowsStove/Racks

WindowsBlinds/Drapes

RefrigeratorBlinds/Drapes

RodsIce Trays

RodsFloorShelves/Drawer

FloorCarpet/Vinyl/WoodDisposal

Light FixturesLight Fixtures

DishwasherDoors/Woodwork

Doors/WoodworkCounter Tops

LocksLocksCabinets

CeilingsCeilings

SinkElectric Outlets

Electrical OutletsFloor

Smoke DetectorsGarbage Cans

WindowsTV Antenna/CableBlinds/Drapes

BATH ROOMFireplace

Towel BarsCleanliness

Sink & Vanity

ToiletBEDROOM 1BEDROOM 2

Tub/ShowerWalls

WallsWindows


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4Q15 Market Overivew ...continued from page 6

Rental Housing Journal Colorado March 2016

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Transcript of Rental Housing Journal Colorado March 2016