Renewable Energy Workshop What’s Driving the Shift To Renewable Energy ?

Renewable EnergyRenewable EnergyWorkshopWorkshop

What’s Driving the Shift What’s Driving the Shift

ToTo

Renewable Energy ?Renewable Energy ?

The Global PictureThe Global Picture

Global SystemGlobal System “Everything is Connected to Everything Else”“Everything is Connected to Everything Else”

Sustainability

Water

Population

Poverty-Wealth

Energy

Climate ChangeHuman Health

Biodiversity

Land - Food

Business

GlobalizationTechnology

It is a Complex PuzzleIt is a Complex Puzzle

Energy (Heat, Light, Travel)

Water (Life, Fun, Waste) Land

(Food, Factories, Families)

Population Increase

Demands on Ecosystem

Water Pollution/Depletion

Energy Depletion &Air Pollution

Land Abuse/Fragmentation

Biodiversity Shift

Overuse & AbuseLaw of the Commons

False Sense ofSecurity !

Climate Change

“A Stressor”

Bio-Trend Systems Inc.

Law of the Commons Law of the Commons System Stress System Stress

Limited Limited ResourcesResources

EnergyEnergy WaterWater FoodFood HabitatHabitat

Who falls off the Train ?

Planetary SystemPlanetary System

Those Who Fail to Seek and Capture Opportunities through

Continuous LearningBio-Trend Systems Inc.

Knowledge Can Change Everything!!Knowledge Can Change Everything!!

The Benefit to Companies and Communities+

Being well prepared and positively positionedto change threats to opportunities….

Don’t Blink Opportunity Moves Quickly !


Global ThreatsGlobal Threats

• Climate Change

• Population

• Energy Status

ClimateChange

Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change++++++++++++++++++++

“A Legacy of Progress”“A Legacy of Progress”

“During the past 20,000 years, a 5 to 6C change in temperature dramatically altered regional distribution of

forests, prairies and wetlands….

The past 150 years has witnessed the 1st, and now the 2nd, Industrial Revolution

During the next 75 years, or less, we may be facing temperature increases in Ontario that equal or eclipse

these levels – our thirst for the fossil fuels and what they provide is contributing significantly to this situation.

CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000CO2 Rise & Temperature - 2000

CO 2 Temperature oC

60 ppm increaseIn 50 Years 1.8 oF increase

globally

A Disconcerting Trend Rate of CO2 Increase

1950 – 1990 1.0 ppm 1990 – 2000 1.8 ppm 2001 – 2005 3.0 ppm

Climate in OntarioClimate in Ontario In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!

7.2 – 9.0°F

5.4 – 7.2°F

3.6 – 5.4°F

Boreal

Great LakesSt. Lawrence

Oak-Hickoryor Prairie ?

Implications of System StressImplications of System Stress

Climate-induced changes, particularly over a short time frame, represent a significant stress – one that is likely to be expressed by significant mortality of species incapable of relatively rapid adjustment

Stress pre-disposes the terrestrial systems to attack by insects, disease and/or fire.

Stress is Cumulative, Stress is Cumulative, andand Once Stressed, Once Stressed,a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stressa System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent Stress

DroughtInsect Attack

Fungus Attack

Death

Population

PopulationPopulationAdditional Tid-BitsAdditional Tid-Bits

Even if birth rate declines the net affect is upward due to: • life expectancy today’s baby girl• “fix your body” technology

China + India = 2,500,000,000 Growth = 1.2% / year. So?

0

12

3

4

5

6

78

9

10

1950 1975 2000 2050

Population - Billions

Global Population doubled in 40 years,will it double again by 2050 ??

?

Impact on Finite Resources“Energy”


Energy

World Oil Production 1930-2050World Oil Production 1930-2050Cheap Oil is Going…GoingCheap Oil is Going…Going….….

10

20

70

60

50

40

30

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Mill

ion

s of

Bar

rels

/ D

ay

Mean-Case Scenario

U.S.Peaked

Rate of declineis based on

past post-peakdeclines

Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling, etc.

Rate of increase istied to population

and industrialization

KuwaitTo Peak

GlobalPeak

20 40 60 80 100

Absolute maximumbefore oil runs out

Best currentguess

Range of likelihood

Years Remaining

OilRemaining

How Long Will it Really Last ??Population Since Oil 2 to 6 billion

“1st Trillion Gone”

Population Next 40 Years 6 to 9 billion“ Remaining Trillion ???”

PlusIndustrializationof China, India

& Others

Peak Time

Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling etc.

So, Is The Party Over ?So, Is The Party Over ?

My father rode a camel I drove a car

My son fly’s a jetMy grandson will ride a camel

Ole Saudi Proverb

Energy ChoicesEnergy Choices

RenewalEnergy

7%

Petroleum30%

Nuclear ElectricPower

8%

Coal23%

Natural Gas24%

Solar 1%

Wood 38%

Alcohol Fuel 1%

Waste 8%

Wind 1%

ConventionalHydroelectric

46%

Geothermal 2%

DirtyStuff

DepletionImminent

$ &Fear

Global“Cheap”Peak isClose

?

20% of Canada’s Natural Gas is used to extract tar sands oil !!

5 Million Chinese work in 25,000coal mines 70% of the Energy

plus 25% of Alberta’sfresh water supply !

What AboutThe

Tar Sands ?

Renewable Energy in OntarioRenewable Energy in Ontario“Growing the Percent of Renewable“Growing the Percent of Renewable

(& Recyclable) Options” (& Recyclable) Options”

Geothermal – Heat

Tide & Wave

Biomass/Biogas - Heat

Micro-Hydro

Biomass/Biogas - Electric

Solar Heat

Solar Electric

Wind Off-Shore

Wind On-Shore

Biofuels

Geothermal – Electric

Ene

rgy

Req

uire

d

2005 2020

What’s the Strategy ??


So, are So, are ““WE”WE” Ready to Ready to Change ?Change ?

Top Oil ConsumersTop Oil Consumers“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?

0

10

20

30

US China Japan Russia India Brazil Canada

2002 2025

But! Per capita Canada is 3rd

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

North American Culture For EnergyNorth American Culture For Energy

Not Conservation Friendly Motivated to Change…???

More Efficient

UrbanSprawl

Greener

Less Dispersed


We are Not Afraid of a ChallengeWe are Not Afraid of a Challengeandand

We are Creative !!!We are Creative !!!

There’s Plenty of Oil !What Oil Peak ?

The North AmericanCompromise


Making it WorkMaking it Work

Expert TeamTeam

PreparednessTeam

Due Diligence

Business DevelopmentBusiness ManagementProject FinancingMarkets & MarketingBiomass ProcurementPermitting/RegulationsMechanical EngineerChemical EngineerBiology/EcologyEtc……

Assets & InfrastructureTaxes and IncentivesMunicipal ZoningRelevant ResourcesNIMBY ConcernsSector-Specific Attributes• Bio-Energy• RemediationLiaison ServicesEtc……..

You are the Local ExpertDue Diligence• Business Acumen • Markets• Supply• Technology/Product• Financing• Competitors• Credibility & TrustEtc……

Prepare – Position – Promote Bio-Trend Systems Inc.

Parting MessagesParting Messages Energy demand will trump supply – Prices will riseEnergy demand will trump supply – Prices will rise

Environmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptableEnvironmental consequences of Fossil Fuels are unacceptable

Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive and help mitigate price increasesprice increases

Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essential for residential/farm cooperatives, companies and communitiesresidential/farm cooperatives, companies and communities

Conserve 1Conserve 1st st - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck

Parting MessagesParting Messages Explore cooperative ventures Explore cooperative ventures Optimize Your Energy Solution Optimize Your Energy Solution

Employ Integrated Renewable Energy SystemsEmploy Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Focus on Renewables and RecyclablesFocus on Renewables and Recyclables

Accommodate and Enable Small Business DevelopmentAccommodate and Enable Small Business Development

Be progressive, patient, practical and persistentBe progressive, patient, practical and persistent

A New Day has Come !A New Day has Come !

Selected Readings

1. Boom, Bust & Echo. David K Foot

2. Weather Makers. Tim Flannery

3. ZOOM. Iain Carson & V.V. Vaitheeswaran

4. A Thousand Barrels A Second. Peter Tertzakian

5. Why Mexicans Don’t Drink Molson. Andrea Mandel-Cambell

6. Fueling the Future. Heintzman

7. The Long Emergency. James Kunstler

8. Dry Spring. Chris Wood

Renewable Energy Workshop What’s Driving the Shift To Renewable Energy ?

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