Renewable Energy Supply Curves for E3 GHG Calculator
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Transcript of Renewable Energy Supply Curves for E3 GHG Calculator
Renewable Energy Supply Curves for E3 GHG Calculator
Energy & Environmental Economics, Inc.Greenhouse Gas Modeling UpdateOctober 2, 2007
Overview & Key Tasks
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Supply Curve Overview Key input to “E3 Calculator” Cost of new renewable
generation is represented in supply curves
Based on all-in levelized costs including capital, operating, interconnection / collection
Separate supply curves for CA and 10 other WECC zones
WECC-Wide Renewable Energy Supply Curves by Major Resource Type
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WECC Zones in GHG ModelAlberta
Arizona-Southern Nevada
British Columbia
California
Colorado
Montana
New Mexico
Northern Nevada
Northwest (WA-OR)
Utah-Southern Idaho
Wyoming
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Supply Curve Key Tasks Collect and assess existing public data Develop resource availability within each
WECC zone Develop levelized costs within each WECC
zone
Input data into spreadsheet model Create supply curves
Data Sources and Assessment
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Supply Curve Data Overview Five renewable technologies evaluated
Wind Geothermal Hydro Biomass Solar Thermal
General approach: Use uniform cost assumptions and let resource class/availability drive zonal supply curves Mainstream estimates for 2007 technology Use publicly-available data
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Data Sources WGA, Clean and Diversified Energy
Advisory Committee (CDEAC) reports (2006)
NREL WinDS Model CEC 2007 IEPR Scenario Analyses Project California Biomass Collaborative CA
Assessment 2006 ORNL, Biomass as a Feedstock, Billion Ton
Vision Report (2005) NREL, A Geographic Perspective on the
Current Biomass Resource Availability in the United States (2005)
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007 CEC, Central Station Generation Costs
(2007) AWEA Wind Vision BC Hydro, 2006 IEP Utility IRPs AESO 2005 10-Year Transmission Plan and
2003 20-Year Outlook NTAC, Canada-Northwest-California
Transmission System Options (2006) CEC Intermittency Analysis Project (2007)
NW Power Council, 5th Power Plan (2005) NW Power Council, 4th Power Plan (1998) Geothermex/CEC, New Geothermal Site
Identification and Qualification (2004) INL, Virtual Hydro Prospector; Estimation of
Economic Parameters of U.S. Hydropower Resources (2003)
Sargent & Lundy/NREL, Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost (2003)
Black & Veatch, Economic, Energy, and Environmental Benefits of Concentrating Solar Power in California (2006)
MIT, The Future of Geothermal Energy (2007)
Petty & Porro, Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Characterizations (2007)
Wiser & Bollinger, LBNL, Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power (2006)
Conversations with Utilities, EIA, State agencies, Research labs, Resource developers, Industry groups
CEC Strategic Value Analyses (2003)
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Resource Assessment Methods Wind & Solar Thermal
Top-down resource potential assessments with filters
Geothermal, Hydro & Biomass Bottom-up project-level evaluation based on
costs & conditions, expert opinion
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Cost Estimation Methods Used EIA’s Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook 2007
as baseline for conventional and renewable technology costs Substituted other technology cost estimates for EIA values as
appropriate Used adjustment factors to account for inflation of materials costs
since time studies were completed Adjusted using regional capital cost multipliers from U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers (range: CA = 1.20 to WY = 0.92) Cost estimates shown here exclude federal PTC/ITC and
state-level tax incentives (but will include in base case) Rule of thumb estimates of gen-tie and interconnection
costs, usually based on distance to transmission
Supply Curves
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Total Renewable Resource Availability by Region (MW)
Biomass Geothermal Hydro* Solar Thermal Wind TotalAlberta - - 100 - 11,999 12,099 Arizona-Southern Nevada 76 - - 50,815 1,809 52,700 British Columbia 258 185 1,521 - 4,601 6,565 California 900 3,063 216 17,688 23,762 45,630 Colorado 103 20 - 5,502 5,138 10,762 Montana 167 - 37 - 54,542 54,745 New Mexico 44 80 - 37,836 11,066 49,026 Northern Nevada 30 1,245 10 13,407 5,523 20,214 Northwest 1,148 335 191 - 17,039 18,713 Utah-Southern Idaho 202 1,040 209 3,009 2,805 7,266 Wyoming 24 - 17 - 138,721 138,762 WECC 2,953 5,968 2,299 128,258 277,005 416,483 * 30 MW or smaller
Biomass & small hydro resources limited
Some geothermal potential in most areas
The main story is wind and solar thermal
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WECC-Wide Renewable Energy Supply Curves by Major Resource Type
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Solar Thermal
Hydro - Small
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California Renewable Energy Supply Curves by Major Resource Type
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California Renewable Energy Supply Curve Compared with RPS Target
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CA RenewableSupply Curve20% RPS Target
33% RPS Target
DOES NOT INCLUDE LONG-DISTANCE TRANSMISSION COSTS
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Renewable Energy Supply Curves for Major Potential Supply Regions Compared with
Potential Transmission Line Capacity
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BCNVNMMTWY1500 MW3000 MW6000 MW
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Base Case RPS Targets by Region
RPS currently in effect in 8 of 11 regions (shaded green)
Assume 5% for other regions to reflect known renewables plans
WECC-wide gap: 120,000-150,000 GWh, or
13,000-18,000 aMW, or
40,000-55,000 MW of wind
RegionBase Case
Target
Preferred Resource
Gap (GWh)Alberta 5% 3,304 Arizona-Southern Nevada 13% 18,020 British Columbia 12% 9,414 California 20% 55,657 Colorado 15% 12,430 Montana 15% 829 New Mexico 18% 3,988 Northern Nevada 20% 2,574 Northwest 14% 22,972 Utah-Southern Idaho 5% 3,103 Wyoming 5% 415 WECC Total 15% 132,707
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Rest of WECC Renewable Energy Supply Curve Compared with RPS Target
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RenewableSupply CurveBase RPS Target
25% RPS Target
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Renewable Energy Supply Curves for Major Consuming Regions,
Compared with Base Case RPS Targets
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CO RPS
AZ RPS
NW RPS
CA RPS
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Resource Assessment Cost Estimation
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Wind Resource & Cost Data Resource Potential from NREL
GIS input for WinDS model 98 resource regions in WECC Exclude cities, lakes, Federal lands, >20% slopes Use wind power Class to calculate capacity factor Include all resources ≥ Class 5 Include resources < Class 5 only if local transmission capacity available
Generation costs (in 2007$): EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook: $1595/kW installed AWEA Wind Vision: $1600/kW installed Levelized cost range for all sites in supply curve: $78/MWh - $159/MWh
Interconnection Cost Use distance proxy based on NREL GIS data & linear $/MW-mile cost
Firming Cost: $294/kW installed
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Wind Resources 2,400,000 MW of raw potential in WECC 277,000 MW included after filtering for power class and
local transmission availability
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Total MT Wind:54,000 MW
Total WY Wind:139,000 MW
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Solar Thermal Resource Data
Resource Potential from NREL GIS data used for WGA CDEAC analysis 31 resource regions in WECC Exclude cities, lakes, Federal lands, >1% slopes, noncontiguous
resource areas Use Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) class and Latitude to calculate
capacity factor Include only resources with DNI > 6.75 kWh/m2/day
Interconnection Cost Used measured distance from center of solar potential in GIS
region to nearest 230+ kV line & linear $/MW-mile cost
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Solar Thermal Resources 128,000 MW of WECC-wide potential
included after applying filters
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Solar Thermal Costs
Wide range of estimates in literature Capital costs range from $2200 to $4400/kW Capacity factors from 28% to 56% Levelized energy cost from $71 to $219/MWh
Key cost determinants Technical progress assumptions Tax policy assumptions Amount of storage
Black & Veatch (2006) costs used in model: $3073/kW Trough technology with 6 hour storage and 40% capacity factor EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook: $3191/kW, 40% c.f. Levelized cost range for all sites in model: $146/MWh - $218/MWh
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Geothermal Resource & Cost Data Resource Potential
Project-specific MW and cost estimates Use CEC/Geothermex (2004) for CA & NV sites Use WGA CDEAC (2006) for rest of WECC
Results after applying EIA filters: CA: 3000 MW at 21 sites NV: 1300 MW at 43 sites BC: 185 MW at 2 sites Rest of WECC: 1500 MW at 24 sites
Generation Costs Site-specific; varies with depth, temperature,
& proven resource Cost range for most sites: $2400/kW to $3700/kW Levelized cost range for all sites: $65/MWh to $324/MWh
Interconnection Cost Used measured distance from center of site location to nearest 115+ kV line &
linear $/MW-mile cost
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Hydro Resource & Cost Data Resource Potential
Site-specific MW & cost estimates INL data based on FERC applications EIA filtered site list based on costs and other parameters E3 selected only sites with existing dam and no documented barriers
Sites smaller than 30 MW are RPS-eligible Total hydro results after applying filters:
CA: 660 MW at 41 sites NW: 2090 MW at 40 sites BC: 5582 MW AB: 200 MW Rest of WECC: 400 MW at 71 sites
Generation Costs Vary by location and conditions Range for most sites: $1200-1900/kW Capacity factors range: 15% to 65% Cost range for all sites: $73/MWh to $254/MWh
Interconnection Costs Used INL GIS estimate of distance from site to existing transmission & linear $/MW-mile cost
Firming Cost: $168/kW installed for small hydro sites
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Biomass Resources “Biomass” includes many different technologies and resource types
Solid Biomass Sub-Categories: Wood, Mill Waste, Municipal Solid Waste, Ag Residues Constraints: Fuel supply is uncertain and has competing uses
Biogas Sub-Categories: Landfill Gas (LFG), Wastewater Treatment, Dairy/Manure Constraints: Most potential is for projects <1 MW, uneconomic to develop
High gross potential, but difficult to determine how much is economically developable
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Biomass Resource & Cost Data
Resource Potential: NREL state-level biomass availability by type used as reference point Scaled NREL data using estimate of likely development in California by 2020
(CEC/California Biomass Collective 2006) Results:
CA: 600 MW of solid biomass & 300 MW of biogas Rest of WECC: 1700 MW of solid biomass & 300 MW of biogas
Generation Costs (in 2007$): Biogas (EIA 2007 Annual Energy Outlook): $2492/kW Biomass (CEC/CBC 2006): $3646/kW Capacity factor: 80% for both technologies Fuel costs: $1.81/MMBtu (biogas); $3.64/MMBtu (biomass) Levelized cost range: $112 - $135/MWh (biomass); $91 - $111/MWh (biogas)
Interconnection Costs Assumed generators locate near transmission, so interconnection costs minimal
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Treatment of Intermittent ResourcesWind “Firmed” wind to 90% capacity
factor on peak by adding capital cost of 0.7 MW of CTs for each MW of wind (net of CT energy benefit)
Added hourly integration costs that increase with wind’s share of area generation ($5/MWh- $12/MWh)
Solar Thermal Assumed 6 hours of thermal
storage allowing 90% capacity factor on peak with no firming
Added $6.25/MWh energy benefit because production occurs during peak hours
Assumed no hourly integration costs
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Summary of Renewable Energy Costs
Notes: * Levelized costs include:
Interconnection & financing costs Fuel costs (for biomass & biogas) Firming and shaping costs (for wind & hydro) Regional capital cost adjustments from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
(e.g., CA = 1.20; WY = 0.92) Solar thermal variable costs include peak period energy benefit Small hydro and geothermal capital costs are for generic plant only
Each site in data has its own capital cost Costs across sites range widely
(All Values in 2007$)
Wind Solar Thermal Geothermal Hydro Biomass BiogasCapital Cost ($/kW) - Base Case $1,984 $3,226 $2,938 $2,606 $3,646 $2,492Capacity Factor 27% - 40% 31% - 40% 90.0% 22% - 65% 80.0% 80.0%Capacity Value on Peak 20.0% 90.0% 90.0% 50.0% 90.0% 90.0%Fixed O&M Costs ($/kW-yr.) $7.89 $54.77 $162.76 $1.20 $52.72 $112.94Non-Fuel Variable Costs ($/MWh) $0.00 ($6.41) $0.00 $3.47 $3.11 $0.01Total Levelized Cost Range ($/MWh)* $78 - $159 $146 - $218 $65 - $324 $71 - $254 $112 - $135 $91 - $111*Note: Levelized costs include cost for: interconnection, financing, fuel (for biomass & biogas), and firming and shaping (for wind & hydro).Solar Thermal variable costs include peak period energy benefit.
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Our Renewables Costs Look High Because… Tried to account for recent cost inflation (at least 50% in
most cases) Includes full tax workup based on IOU financing Includes estimates of funds used during construction Includes estimates of transmission integration costs Excludes federal tax credits Wind resource is “firmed” with CTs
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Conventional Resources Five technologies considered:
Gas combined-cycle combustion turbine (CCCT) Pulverized coal steam Coal integrated gasification combined cycle
(IGCC) Coal IGCC with carbon capture and
sequestration (CCS) Nuclear
Assume no limit on quantity of conventional resources that can be developed in each region
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Comparison of Conventional Resource Costs
Today’s technology Same financial, tax credit, and recent cost inflation
assumptions as renewables Regional differences driven by fuel prices and capital cost
differences
Cost in Levelized 2007 $/MWhWyoming Arizona California
Coal ST 62.37$ 75.75$ N/AGas CCCT 70.91$ 80.59$ 85.89$ Coal IGCC 68.46$ 82.01$ 97.61$ Nuclear 99.71$ 107.45$ 126.80$ Coal IGCC with CCS 103.03$ 120.78$ 143.79$
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Key Data Uncertainties Solar Thermal generation cost
Wide range of current costs estimates Large uncertainty about future costs
Interconnection costs Variability can be large Estimation techniques important, especially for wind Data limitations result in different estimation
methodology for different technologies
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Key Modeling Uncertainties Include federal and state tax incentives?
Will PTC & ITC expire? Modeling CA resources
Statewide potential vs resource zone approach Affects what user can specify in “dashboard”
Treatment of intermittent renewables Firming & integration costs, esp. for wind
New long-line transmission (e.g. CA-WY) What to assume for base case?