Prof. Emeritus LEONOR MAGTOLIS BRIONESFormer National TreasurerLead Convenor, Social Watch Philippines

The 2015 BudgetThe 2015 Budget

The following update is based on available issuances and official information

Total picture of the budget is not available Budget call and memoranda only cover

the allocation for operating agencies Only 47% (agency budget ceilings of

P1.231 trillion) of the total obligation budget of P2.606 trillion is initially disclosed (NBM No. 119); does not include special purpose funds and debt servicing

Macroeconomic AssumptionsMacroeconomic Assumptions

PARAMETER 2013

Actual

2014

Adjusted

2015

Projected

2016

Projected

Real GNI Growth %

Real GDP Growth %

Inflation %

364-Day T-bill Rate %

FOREX (P/US $)

6.5-7.0

6.5-7.0

2.9

0.7-1.0

42-43

6.2-7.2

6.5-7.5

3.0-5.0

1.0-4.0

41-44

6.6-7.5

7.0-8.0

2.0-4.0

1.0-4.0

41-44

7.0-8.0

7.5-8.5

2.0-4.0

1.0-4.0

41-44

Source: DBM NBM 119 based on BSP, NEDA, NSCB data

Are the projected GDP and GNI growth rates attainable?

Fiscal Targets Fiscal Targets PARTICULARSPARTICULARS

20132013Adjusted Adjusted ProgramProgram

2014 2014 ProgramProgram

2015 2015 ProposedProposed

2016 2016 ProposedProposed

Levels in Billion PesosRevenuesDisbursementsSurplus/(Deficit)Obligation Budget

Per cent of GDPRevenuesDisbursementsSurplus/(Deficit)Obligation Budget

Growth RateRevenuesDisbursementsSurplus/(Deficit)*Obligation Budget

1,745.91,983.9(238.0)2,005.9

14.716.7

(2.0)16.8

13.711.6

2.09.7

2,018.12.284.3(266.2)2,264.6

15.517.5

(2.0)17.4

15.615.1

(11.9)12.9

2,337.32,622.6(285.3)2,605.9

16.218.2

(2.0)18.0

15.814.8

(7.1)15.1

2,760.83,082.8(322.0)3,077.9

17.119.1

(2.0)19.0

18.117.5

(12.9)18.1

GDPGross Financing Mix (%)ForeignDomestic

11,914.5

8.092.0

12,990.3

15.085.0

14,463.5

11.089.0

16,179.0

9.091.0

Notes: *A positive growth rate indicates an improvement in the fiscal balance Source: DBM NBM 119 based on DBM, DOF, and NEDA data

2015 Agency Budget Ceilings2015 Agency Budget Ceilings

Personal Services MOOE, CO & FinEx

Total

488,140,395,000 742,918,323,000 1,231,058,718,000Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A

vs.

Total Obligation Budget for 2014:

PhP 2,605,900,000,000

Where is the remaining amount of PhP 1,374,841,282,000going to?

Top agencies to get bigger slice of the Top agencies to get bigger slice of the P1.231T pieP1.231T pie

Agency Budget Ceiling(in PhP)

1. DEPED 297,418,283,0002. DPWH 255,436,881,0003. DILG 95,278,522,0004. DSWD 85,904,210,0005. DND 84,184,487,0006. DOH 83,129,088,0007. DOTC 52,059,954,0008. DA 50,945,003,0009. SUCs 31,770,640,00010. DENR 21,637,070,00011. ARMM 20,454,793,00012. JUDICIARY 18,845,712,000OTHERS 133,548,360,000

Total Budget Ceiling for AgencyOperations 1,231,058,718,000

Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A

The 10.9% of the P1.231T pieThe 10.9% of the P1.231T pieRank Agency Budget Ceiling (in PhP)

13 Department of Agrarian Reform 18,845,712,00014 Other Executive Offices 15,375,128,00015 Department of Finance 12,688,794,00016 Department of Foreign Affairs 11,493,541,00017 Department of Justice 11,431,409,00018 Department of Science and Technology 11,365,954,00019 Congress of the Philippines 10,365,526,00020 Commission on Audit 8,163,021,00021 Department of Labor and Employment 7,960,793,00022 Department of Energy 4,057,567,00023 Department of Trade and Industry 3,888,428,00024 Commission on Elections 2,685,830,00025 National Economic and Development Authority 3,260,469,00026 Office of the President 2,582,457,00027 Allocations to Local Government Units (MMDA) 1,933,175,00028 Department of Tourism 1,866,437,00029 Office of the Ombudsman 1,731,261,00030 Department of Budget and Management 1,126,491,00031 Presidential Communications Operations Office 1,107,450,00032 Civil Service Commission 1,071,722,00033 Commission on Human Rights 319,743,00034 Office of the Vice President 224,582,00035 Joint Legislative-Executive Councils 2,870,000

Source: DBM National Budget Memorandum No. 119 Annex A

How much is it for 2013?

Where goes the Where goes the more than half of more than half of the 2015 Budget?the 2015 Budget?

Special Purpose Special Purpose Funds?Funds?

How much is it in How much is it in 2015?2015?

How much is debt How much is debt servicing?servicing?

Source: 2014 GAA (RA 10633)

SPECIAL PURPOSE FUNDS 2014 Gen. Appropriations Act

Amount

Budgetary Support to Government Corporations

46,255,210,000

Allocation to Local Government Units

19,588,843,000

National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Fund (formerly Calamity Fund)

13,000,000,000

Contingent Fund 1,000,000,000

DepEd School Building Program 1,000,000,000

E-Government Fund 2,478,900,000

International Commitments Fund 4,815,644,000

Miscellaneous Personnel Benefits Fund

53,535,086,000

Pension and Gratuity Fund (formerly Retirement Benefits Fund)

120,495,952,000

Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Program

20,000,000,000

Priority Development Assistance Fund1

0

Feasibility Studies Fund 400,000,000

TOTAL 282,569,635,0001Under the FY 2014 General Appropriations Act, the P25.24 Billion PDAF is realigned to the following: CHED, DOH, DSWD, DOLE-TESDA, DPWH, UP System, PNP, AFP, and NDRRM Fund

Assessment of the Budget Ceilings Assessment of the Budget Ceilings for Agency Operationsfor Agency Operations

DEPARTMENT (in PhP) 2015 Budget Ceiling

GAA 2014 Variance % change

1Education 297,418,283,000 281,774,247,000 15,644,036,000 5.55

2Public Works and Highways 255,436,881,000 206,634,047,000 48,802,834,000 23.62

3 Interior and Local Government 95,278,522,000 100,295,430,000 (5,016,908,000) -5.0

4Social Welfare and Development 85,904,210,000 83,304,463,000 2,599,747,000 3.12

5National Defense 84,184,487,000 82,265,071,000 1,919,416,000 2.33

Top 5 recipient agencies, FY 2015 (Budget Call) and FY 2014 (GAA)

Source: GAA 2014 and NBM 119 Annex A

Note: Ranking 6th is DOH with budget ceiling amounting to PhP 83.129 B, slightly lower than its 2014 appropriation of PhP 84.356 B of which the department ranked 4th among top recipient agencies

Assessment of the Budget Assessment of the Budget Ceilings Ceilings for Agency Operationsfor Agency Operations

DEPARTMENT 2015 Budget Ceiling

GAA 2014 Variance % change

31Presidential Communications Operations Office 1,107,450,000 1,128,359,000 (20,909,000) -1.85

32Civil Service Commission 1,071,722,000 1,213,353,000 (141,631,000) -11.67

33Commission on Human Rights 319,743,000 326,923,000 (7,180,000) -2.2

34Office of the Vice President 224,582,000 217,296,000 7,286,000 -3.35

35Joint Legislative-Executive Councils 2,870,000 4,167,000 (1,297,000) -31.13

Top 5 recipient agencies, FY 2015 (Budget Call) and FY 2014 (GAA)

Source: GAA 2014 and NBM 119 Annex A

Note: Previously ranked 32nd in the 2014 GAA with appropriation of P997.494 M, Department of Budget and Management moved out from the lowest 5 recipient agencies with P1.127 B budget ceiling for FY 2015.