Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 Denver.
Transcript of Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 Denver.
Remarks of Ron Binz
Principal, Public Policy ConsultingNovember 9, 2012 • Denver
Public Policy Consulting
Public Policy Consulting
www.rbinz.com
Public Policy Consulting
Five Reasons To Be Bullish Long-term on Renewable Energy
• Compliance with climate goals• Lower costs for wind and solar• Acceptance of renewables by utilities and
consumers• Smart grid interplay• Changing utility business models
Public Policy Consulting
Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REF)
Exploration of High-PenetrationRenewable Electricity Futures
Available at NREL.gov
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NREL’s REF Findings
• Renewable electricity generation is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.
• Increased electric system flexibility can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, like flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.
• The are multiple paths using renewables that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.
• The direct incremental cost with high renewable generation is comparable to costs of other clean energy scenarios.
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Helpful fact:
The US summer peak electrical use is around 800 GW.
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Baseline Case
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REF ITI Case
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With incentives
No incentives
CO2 costs
Notes
•Unadjusted 2010 cost estimates were used for consistency
•Costs for wind and photovoltaics have fallen sharply in last two years (faster than these 2010 estimates)
•Cost of nuclear power has risen post-Fukushima (more than these 2010 estimates)
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NREL’s estimate of continued cost reductions for wind energy
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DOE’s Sunshot Program
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FloridaColorado New Jersey GermanyArizona
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Solar Electric Density
• Use: 100 MW(ac)/mile2
• Colorado Peak Integrated Demand: 11GW
• Result: 110 mile2 required land area
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110 mi2
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But what if 11 GW of solar were spread around the state in 100 MW installations?
It might look like this...
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Question: How do we explain the variations in outcomes•between NJ and GA •between the US and Germany
Answer: Policy; regulation; industry structure; incentives.
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A Recent Hart Associates Poll
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Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)
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The Evolving Utility Business Model
• Multiple threats to business as usual
• Utilities must adapt in order to grow (survive)
• We need to change the regulatory incentives to
reward utilities for pursuing societal goals
• Regulation needs to produce greater firm efficiency
• Expect a new regulatory compact to emerge
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Congratulations to the Alliance for 8+ years of leadership.
I look forward to your questions.
Thanks for the invitation.