Religare Morning Digest€¦ · · 2017-05-12Religare Morning Digest May 15, 2017 Nifty Outlook...
Transcript of Religare Morning Digest€¦ · · 2017-05-12Religare Morning Digest May 15, 2017 Nifty Outlook...
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 9330 9500 9300
Nifty traded dull for second day in a row and settled almost flat, citing mixed local cues. Participants were in the profit taking mood from the beginning and caution ahead of macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI inflation further added pressure. Again, the movement in broader markets kept the participants busy while mostly sectoral indices closed slightly negative.
The move in index is gradual while stocks are performing exceptionally well. Sectoral indices too are witnessing buying interest on rotational basis, helping index to sustain at higher level. We suggest continuing stock specific trading approach.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
AUTO STABLE
FMCG STABLE
PSUBK STABLE
News
Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD FYTD
FII 1307 -104 -6733
DII -1037 1290 10536
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 168173 13323
IDXOPT 3290603 265747
STKFUTS 733772 51957
Derivative Ideas **
In keeping with RBI's directive to banks on disclosure of divergences, Yes Bank reported Rs 4,176 cr in gross non-performing assets as divergence for FY16. Yes Bank had reported a gross NPA figure at Rs 750 cr as against the RBI’s assessment of Rs 4,925 cr in FY16. In percentage terms, RBI has pegged the bank’s total gross NPA at 5% for FY16, against the bank’s own assessment of only 0.76% for that financial year. However, Yes Bank reiterated that there is no carry forward impact of the divergence observed by RBI in FY17-18.
Public sector lender Oriental Bank of Commerce posted highest ever loss at Rs 1,218 cr for Q4FY17 against profit of Rs 21.6 cr YoY, impacted by higher provisions. The loss was quite higher compared to analysts' estimates of Rs 77.4 cr. Net interest income fell 3.4% YoY to Rs 1,307 cr. Provisions increased nearly three times to Rs 3,050 cr YoY and nearly doubled from Rs 1,429 cr QoQ. Sequentially, Gross NPAs declined 7 bps to 13.73% and Net NPA fell 72 bps to 8.96% QoQ.
Dr Reddy's Laboratories reported jump in profits to Rs 333 cr from Rs 122 cr YoY. The low base in year-ago quarter supported the bottomline. Profit in Q4FY16 had been impacted due to write-downs of Rs 400 cr on account of Venezuela. Revenue fell 4.8% to Rs 3,611 cr YoY dragged by US sales that contributed more than 50% to global generics business.
*FII & DII data as on 11th May 2017
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
ENGINERSIN BUY 165.95 163-165 159 175
BATAINDIA SELL FUTS 568 574-578 587 550
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
PRICE SL
TAR-GET
BANKNIFTY
S 18 MAY
23000 CE 40
22
55 15 S 18 MAY
22200 PE 18
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZZEL) reported healthy Q4FY17 results on all parameters. Post demonetisation, advertising revenue was under pressure for
media companies, however, the ad industry growth is back on growth track. Digitisation has played a major role in terms of bringing incremental subscription revenue for broadcasters.
Strong margins, presence across genres, cash rich balance sheet augurs well for the company's growth prospects. We estimate revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow
at a CAGR of 7.5%, 6.9% and 14.2% respectively over FY17-19E. We maintain BUY on the stock with a price target of Rs 592.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
ZEEL 526.40 592 9-12 Months 530
Banknifty call writing was seen at 22800 and 23000
strikes and put writing was seen at 22500 strike
followed by 22400 and 22200 strikes. Vix is likely to
hover around the current levels. We suggest doing
short strangle in Banknifty as per levels mentioned
below.
Strategy: SELL BANKNIFTY 18 MAY 23000 CE AT 22
& SELL 18 MAY 22200 PE AT 18, NET PREMIUM
RECEVIED 40, STOPLOSS 55, TGT 15.
Derivative Ideas
Engineers India Limited (ENGINERSIN) Bata India Limited (BATAINDIA)
ENGINERSIN has witnessed a marginal profit taking
of late and formed a fresh buying pivot on the dai-
ly chart. Traders shouldn’t miss this chance and ac-
cumulate in the given range.
Despite strong momentum in the benchmark In-
dex, BATAINDIA has failed to regain its momen-
tum, facing a strong resistance around 595 levels.
At current juncture, it has formed a fresh shorting
pivot and likely to see fresh decline ahead.
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 126.0
Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 427.3
Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 327.2
Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 992.9
Force Motors 25-Jan-17 4,274 5,210 21.9% 4,490.0
Greenply Industries 3-Feb-17 268 304 13.4% 291.5
Manpasand Beverages 7-Feb-17 681 854 25.4% 737.4
Wonderla Holidays 7-Feb-17 380 430 13.1% 391.6
Century Plyboards 8-Feb-17 216 300 38.8% 255.7
NRB Bearings 9-Feb-17 108 132 22.2% 116.8
Tv Today Network 14-Feb-17 270 360 33.3% 270.7
Sutlej Textiles 14-Feb-17 843 1,032 22.5% 940.4
Talwalkars Better Value Fitness 20-Feb-17 217 328 51.1% 280.3
SML Isuzu 21-Feb-17 1,240 1,560 25.8% 1,312.6
Arman Financial Services 22-Feb-17 226 340 50.0% 194.9
Jamna Auto 28-Feb-17 209 272 30.1% 233.2
Castrol India 7-Mar-17 412 483 17.1% 437.7
Berger Paints (I) Ltd 15-Mar-17 230 273 18.7% 256.4
Avanti Feeds 16-Mar-17 715 945 32.2% 897.4
Huhtamaki PPL Ltd 30-Mar-17 228 287 26.0% 270.5
Bajaj Finance Ltd 31-Mar-17 1,170 1,421 21.5% 1,314.8
The Byke Hospitality 11-Apr-17 191 242 26.7% 206.1
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd 18-Apr-17 380 478 25.8% 387.8
CRISIL 26-Apr-17 1,911 2,540 32.9% 1,877.7
LIC Housing Finance Ltd 28-Apr-17 670 748 11.6% 683.1
Zee Entertainment Enterprises 12-May-17 530 592 11.6% 526.4
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — May 2017 (Stock Split)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15 16 17
Mangal Credit and Fincorp Ltd
18 19 20
Corporate Action Calendar — May 2017 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15 16
Godrej Consumer Products Ltd
Futuristic Solutions Ltd
17
Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd
Gillette India Ltd
18
LKP Finance Ltd
Kennametal India Ltd
19
Nestle India Ltd
20
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Result Calendar — May 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
14 15
ATLANTA LTD.
BATA INDIA LTD.
CHENNAI PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (INDIA) LTD.
Ducon Infratechnologies Ltd
GABRIEL INDIA LTD.-$
INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD.
JK TYRE & INDUSTRIES LTD.
Jindal Stainless (Hisar) Ltd
KAJARIA CERAMICS LTD.
SHARP INDIA LTD.
SOUTH INDIAN BANK LTD.
SUN SOURCE (INDIA) LTD.
UNITY INFRAPROJECTS LTD.
Vaibhav Global Ltd
VCCL LTD.
Vedanta Limited
VEER ENERGY & INFRASTRUC-TURE LTD.
VINDHYA TELELINKS LTD.
VOLTAMP TRANSFORMERS LTD.
Yogya Enterprises Ltd
16
ANDHRA BANK
CREDIT ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH LTD.
Dhanlaxmi Bank Limited
INSILCO LTD.
JIK INDUSTRIES LTD.
MINDA INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
PI Industries Ltd
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
SUMEET INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
Symphony Limited
TASTY BITE EATABLES LTD.
TATA STEEL LTD.
TCFC FINANCE LTD.
TRANSPORT CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
TCI DEVELOPERS LTD.
TCPL PACKAGING LTD.-$
TAMILNADU PETROPROD-UCTS LTD.
TRIGYN TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
VARDHMAN HOLDINGS LTD.
WHIRLPOOL OF INDIA LTD.
17
ALLAHABAD BANK
BAJAJ FINSERV LTD.
Bajaj Finance Limited
COSMO FILMS LTD.
Dilip Buildcon Ltd
DELTA MAGNETS LTD.
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd.
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD.
JK LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD.
JSW STEEL LTD.
KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS LTD.-$
NIIT LTD.
Snowman Logistics Ltd
SRS Finance Ltd
TAJGVK HOTELS & RE-SORTS LTD.
UNITED BREWERIES LTD.-$
UFO Moviez India Ltd
VINYL CHEMICALS (INDIA) LTD.
18
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO LTD.
BAJAJ AUTO LTD.
BANK OF BARODA
CESC LTD.
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd
CUMMINS INDIA LTD.
JAYKAY ENTERPRISES LTD.
MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD.
PENNAR INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LTD.
SINGER INDIA LTD.
Strides Shasun Ltd
SUTLEJ TEXTILES & INDUSTRIES LTD.
TAKE SOLUTIONS LTD.
TATA COFFEE LTD.
V.I.P.INDUSTRIES LTD.-$
ZYLOG SYSTEMS LTD.
19
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD.
MODERN INDIA LTD.-$
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD.
STATE BANK OF INDIA
SHRICON INDUSTRIES LTD.
Svarnim Trade Udyog Ltd
TATA POWER CO.LTD.
TITAGARH WAGONS LTD.
Umiya Tubes Ltd
V-GUARD INDUSTRIES LTD.
VIVO BIO TECH LTD.
VRL Logistics Ltd
XPRO INDIA LTD.
SPEEDAGE COMMERCIALS LTD.
ZUARI AGRO CHEMICALS LTD.
ZUARI GLOBAL LTD.
20
EUROTEX INDUSTRIES & EXPORTS LTD.
GHCL LTD.
IMP POWERS LTD.
JARIGOLD TEXTILES LTD.
KLRF LTD.
LAKHOTIA POLYESTERS (INDIA) LTD.
PUDUMJEE PULP & PAPER MILLS LTD.
SUMEDHA FISCAL SER-VICES LTD.
THIRUMALAI CHEMICALS LTD.
TRIVENI ENGINEERING & INDUSTRIES LTD.
TRIVENI GLASS LTD.-$
UNITED DRILLING TOOLS LTD.
KHATAU EXIM LTD.
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 12th May’17
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 8.7% 1,151 1,098
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 9.4% 425 438
Sml Isuzu Auto February 6, 2017 9.5% 1,265 1,313
Amara Raja Batteries Auto March 22, 2017 11.4% 868 926
Power Grid Corporation of India
Energy April 12, 2017 11.0% 200 206
MCX Financial Services April 28, 2017 9.0% 1,234 1,104
Bajaj Finance Financial Services May 5, 2017 10.2% 1,292 1,315
TV Today Network Media & Ent. May 10, 2017 9.7% 279 271
Cash 21.1%
Total 100%
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Historical Performance as on 12th May’17
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 3.4% 9.6% 11.1% 20.6% 39.8%
Nifty 1.8% 7.1% 13.3% 19.0% 19.2%
Outperformance 1.7% 2.5% -2.2% 1.6% 20.6%
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]
Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]
Ajit Mishra [email protected]
Archana Gude [email protected]
Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]
Siji A Philip [email protected]
Swati Saxena [email protected]
Vipin Kumar [email protected]
Team Members
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Religare Morning Digest
May 15, 2017
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[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
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S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.