Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
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Reliability Assessment Subcommittee Meeting Agenda April 11, 2017 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) April 12, 2017 | 8:30am – 3:00pm (EDT) NERC DC Offices 1325 G Street NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20005 April 11 th Meeting Link for WebEx on 11 th Only Meeting number (access code): 733 184 184 Meeting password: PNCWcXZe April 12 th Meeting Link for WebEx on 12 th Only Meeting number (access code): 731 160 155 Meeting password: PNCWcXZe Join by phone +1-415-655-0002 US Toll +1-416-915-8942 Canada Toll NERC On-Site Contact: David Calderon (404) 960-0568 Tuesday, April 11 8:30 – 9:15 am 1. Administrative a. Welcome and Introductions – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair b. NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff c. Facilities & Safety Briefing – NERC RA Staff d. Review Agenda – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair e. Chair Report - Phil Fedora, RAS Chair a. March Reliability Leadership Summit/RISC Meeting b. March PC/OC/Join Meeting(s) c. February ERO-RAPA Meeting f. Review November Meeting Minutes – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff g. Review latest roster – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff h. Review upcoming meeting schedule/locations – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff 9:15 – 10:15 am 2. Probabilistic Assessment Working Group (PAWG) Update – Noha Abdel-Karim, NERC RA Staff a. March Meeting b. Review/Approve PAWG Work Plan c. Review/Approve nominations for PAWG leadership 10:15 – 10:30 am BREAK
Transcript of Reliability Assessment Subcommittee
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee Meeting Agenda April 11, 2017 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) April 12, 2017 | 8:30am – 3:00pm (EDT) NERC DC Offices 1325 G Street NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20005 April 11th Meeting Link for WebEx on 11th Only Meeting number (access code): 733 184 184 Meeting password: PNCWcXZe
April 12th Meeting Link for WebEx on 12th Only Meeting number (access code): 731 160 155 Meeting password: PNCWcXZe
Join by phone +1-415-655-0002 US Toll +1-416-915-8942 Canada Toll NERC On-Site Contact: David Calderon (404) 960-0568
Tuesday, April 11
8:30 – 9:15 am 1. Administrative
a. Welcome and Introductions – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair b. NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff c. Facilities & Safety Briefing – NERC RA Staff d. Review Agenda – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair e. Chair Report - Phil Fedora, RAS Chair
a. March Reliability Leadership Summit/RISC Meeting b. March PC/OC/Join Meeting(s) c. February ERO-RAPA Meeting
f. Review November Meeting Minutes – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff g. Review latest roster – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff h. Review upcoming meeting schedule/locations – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
9:15 – 10:15 am 2. Probabilistic Assessment Working Group (PAWG) Update – Noha Abdel-Karim, NERC RA Staff
a. March Meeting b. Review/Approve PAWG Work Plan c. Review/Approve nominations for PAWG leadership
10:15 – 10:30 am BREAK
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: Meeting Agenda 2
10:30 – Noon 3. Distributed Generation – EIA Staff
a. Presentation on EIA 861 information b. Open Discussion on potential use by RAS
Noon – 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 – 2:00 pm 4. Essential Reliability Services Working Group (ERSWG) Update – Brian Evans-Mongeon, ERSWG Chair &
Nicole Segal, NERC RA Staff a. Status of current forward-looking Measure 6 (ramping) b. Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Subgroup update
2:00 – 3:00 pm 5. 2017 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Outline detailed schedule b. Review assessment area highlights c. Discuss Generation Mix data
3:00 – 3:15 pm BREAK 3:15 – 5:00 pm 6. 2017 Summer Reliability Assessment (continued) – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Outline detailed schedule b. Review assessment area highlights c. Discuss Generation Mix data
5:00 pm ADJOURN
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: Meeting Agenda 3
Wednesday, April 12 8:30 – 9:00 am 7. Status of NERC Special Assessment on Single Point of Disruption (SPOD) – Tom Coleman, NERC Director of
Reliability Assessment 8:30 – 10:15 am 8. 2017 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) – NERC RA Staff
a. Regional Outreach Update and Presentation b. Review Detailed Schedule c. RADS Update d. Outline Peer Review Process e. Assign Peer Reviews
10:15 – 10:30 am BREAK 10:30 am - Noon 9. 2017 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (continued) – NERC RA Staff
f. Future Capacity Addition Categories (Tier 1, 2, and 3) g. Reference Margin Levels, Targets, and the Comparison to 1-event-in-10-years. h. External RAS SharePoint i. Posting of 2016 Methods and Assumptions documentation
Noon – 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 – 3:00 pm 9. Regional Roundtable (Please come prepared to discuss)
a. Inherent/Emerging Issues b. New Studies c. Other Issues
3:00 pm ADJOURN
2017 RAS Meeting Schedule
Mid-January Review Request Material redlines Approve Assessment SRA/LTRA Schedules
Email/SharePoint
April 11-12 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review SRA Approve WRA Schedule Review Methods and Assumptions (LTRA) EIA
NERC – DC
July 11-12 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
LTRA Peer Review BPA - Portland
August 22-23 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review WRA/Specials Halifax/New York Tentative Meeting
November 14-16 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review LTRA 2018 Strategic Meetings Confirm 2018 Request Materials Data/Narrative Changes
FRCC
Name Address Contact
Chairperson Phil Fedora Northeast Power Coordinating Council (212) 840‐4909
Assistant Vice President, 1040 Avenue of the Americas (6th Ave) (212) 302‐2782 Fx
Reliability Services 10th Floor [email protected]
New York, New York 10018‐3703
Vice Chairperson Tim Fryfogle ReliabilityFirst 216‐503‐0616
Lead Engineer – Resources 3 Summit Park Drive Suite 600 [email protected]
Cleaveland, Ohio 44131
Member Alan Wahlstrom Southwest Power Pool, Inc. (501) 688‐1624
Lead Engineer, Compliance 201 Worthen Drive (501)351‐3410 Fx
Littlerock, Arkansas 72223 [email protected]
Member Binod Shrestha SaskPower
6W ‐ 2025 Victoria Ave. [email protected]
Regina, SK
Canada S4P‐0S1
Member Chris Haley Southwest Power Pool, Inc. 501‐614‐3583
Engineer Associate 201 Worthen Drive [email protected]
Littlerock, Arkansas 72223
Member Denise Lam Florida Reliability Coordinating Council 813‐321‐6289
3000 Bayport Drive [email protected]
Suite 6000
Tampa, Florida 33607
Member Helve Saarela ISO New England, Inc. 413‐540‐4211
Senior Engineer One Sullivan Road (413) 540‐4203 Fx
Holyoke, Massachusetts 01040 hsaarela@iso‐ne.com
Member Clay Young South Carolina Electric & Gas Co. (803) 217‐2030
Manager of Transmission 220 Operations Way (803) 933‐7264 Fx
Planning MC J37 [email protected]
Cayce, South Carolina 29033
Member James Leigh‐Kendall Sacramento Municipal Utility District (916) 732‐5357
Manager 6002 S Street, B303 (916) 732‐7527 Fx
Reliability Compliance and Sacramento, California 95852 [email protected]
Coordination
Member Jeffrey Harrison Associated Electric Cooperative, Inc. (417) 885‐9316
Manager System Operations 2814 S. Goldern [email protected]
P.O. Box 754
Springfield, Missouri 65801
Member John Reinhart MISO 651‐632‐8428
Engineer 2985 Ames Crossing Rd [email protected]
Eagan, Minnesota 55121
Member Layne Brown Western Electricity Coordinating Council 801‐883‐6849
Consultant 155 North 400 West [email protected]
Reliability Assessments Suite 200
Salt Lake City, Utah 84103‐1114
Member Lewis De La Rosa Texas Reliability Entity, Inc. (512) 583‐4984
805 Las Cimas Parkway [email protected]
Suite 200
Austin, Texas 78746
Member Mark J. Kuras, P.E. PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. (610) 666‐8924
Senior Lead Engineer 2750 Monroe Boulevard (610) 728‐4881 Fx
Audubon, Pennsylvania 19403 [email protected]
Member Matt Hart Southern Company 205‐257‐7623
Project Manager 600 North 18th St [email protected]
Transmission Planning Birmingham, Alabama 35291
Member Michael Courchesne ISO New England, Inc. (413) 535‐4346
One Sullivan Road mcourchesne@iso‐ne.com
Holyoke, Massachusetts 01040
Member Peter Warnken ERCOT 512‐248‐6705
Manager, Resource Adequacy 2705 West Lake Drive [email protected]
Taylor, TX 76574
Member Peter Wong ISO New England, Inc. 413‐535‐4172
Manager, Resource Adequacy One Sullivan Road 413‐540‐4203 Fx
Holyoke, Massachusetts 01040 pwong@iso‐ne.com
Member Richard Becker Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (813) 207‐7967
Project Planning Engineer 3000 Bayport Drive [email protected]
Suite 6000
Tampa, Florida 33607
Member Richard Kinas Orlando Utilities Commission 407‐434‐4261
Manager of Standards 6113 Pershing Avenue [email protected]
Compliance Orlando, Florida 32822
Member Ryan Egerdahl Bonneville Power Administration 503.230.4732
Manager 905 NE 11th Ave. [email protected]
Long Term Power Planning Portland, OR 97232
Member Ryan Westphal MISO (651) 632‐8526
Lead, Resource Adequacy 2985 Ames Crossing Rd [email protected]
Coordination Eagan, MN 55121
Member Salva Raja Andiappan Midwest Reliability Organization (651) 855‐1719
Manager‐ Modeling and 380 St. Peter Street (651) 855‐1712 Fx
Reliability Assessments Suite 800 [email protected]
St. Paul, Minnesota 55102
Member Sennoun Abdelhakim Hydro‐Quebec (514) 289‐2211
Complexe Desjardins, 24e Étage [email protected]
Montréal, Qc, H5B 1H7
Member Srinivas Kappagantula PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. 610‐666‐4449
Senior Analyst 955 Jefferson Ave [email protected]
Norristown, Pennsylvania 19403
Member Teresa Glaze SERC Reliability Corporation (704) 840‐5600
Data Analyst 2815 Coliseum Centre Drive (704) 357‐7914 Fx
Suite 500 [email protected]
Charlotte, North Carolina 28217
Member Travis Tate SERC Reliability Corporation 704 414 5266
3701 Arco Corporate Drive [email protected]
Charlotte , North Carolina 28273
Member Vithy Vithyananthan Independent Electricity System Operator (905) 855‐6307
Senior Engineer P.O. Box 1 (905) 855‐6372 Fx
Toronto, Ontario M5G 2K4 [email protected]
Alternate Anna Lafoyiannis Independent Electricity System Operator 905‐855‐6170
Engineer/Technical Officer P.O. Box 1 [email protected]
Toronto, Ontario M5G 2K4
Alternate Brad Woods Texas Reliability Entity, Inc. 512‐583‐4957
805 Las Cimas Parkway [email protected]
Suite 200
Austin, Texas 78746
Alternate Jerrod Moll Southern Company 205‐257‐6144
600 North 18th Street / 13N‐8183 [email protected]
Birmingham, AL 35291
Alternate Josh Collins SERC Reliability Corporation 704‐494‐7777
Reliability Engineer 3701 Arco Corporate Dr [email protected]
Suite 300
Charlotte, North Carolina 28273
Alternate Paul Kure ReliabilityFirst (216) 503‐0611
Senior Consultant, Resources 3 SUMMIT PARK DRIVE (330) 456‐3648 Fx
Suite 600 [email protected]
CLEVELAND, Ohio 44131
Alternate Paul Roman Northeast Power Coordinating Council (212) 840‐4905
Manager, Operations Planning 1040 Avenue of the Americas (6th Ave) (212) 302‐2782 Fx
10th Floor [email protected]
New York, New York 10018‐3703
Alternate Suman Thapa SaskPower
6W ‐ 2025 Victoria Ave. [email protected]
Regina, SK
Canada S4P‐0S1
Alternate Vince Ordax Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (813) 207‐7988
Director of Planning 3000 Bayport Drive (813) 289‐5646 Fx
Suite 6000 [email protected]
Tampa, Florida 33607
Alternate William Kunkel Midwest Reliability Organization 651‐855‐1717
Senior Engineer 380 St. Peter Street [email protected]
Suite 800
St. Paul, Minnesota 55102
Observer/Liason Alan Phung Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (202) 502‐8987
Electrical Engineer Office of Electric Reliability [email protected]
888 First Street, N.E.
Washington, D.C. 20426
Observer/Liason Bagen Bagen Manitoba Hydro 204‐360‐3958
Exploratory Studies Engineer 820 Taylor Avenue [email protected]
Winnipeg, MB R3M 3T1
Observer/Liason Ben Lewiski Midwest Reliability Organization 651‐855‐1761
380 St. Peter Street [email protected]
Suite 800
St. Paul, Minnesota 55102
Observer/Liason Bob Mariotti DTE Energy 313‐235‐6057
Supervisor 2000 Second Avenue, 787WCB [email protected]
Short‐Term Forecasting Detroit MI, 48226
Observer/Liason C. Richard Bozek Edison Electric Institue 202‐508‐5641
Director, Environmental Policy 701 Pennsylvania Ave., NW [email protected]
Washington, D.C. 20004
Observer/Liason Dan Schoenecker Midwest Reliability Organization (651) 855‐1753
Vice President of Operations 380 St. Peter Street (651) 855‐1712 Fx
Suite 800 [email protected]
St. Paul, Minnesota 55102
Observer/Liason Daniel Brooks Electric Power Research Institute 865‐218‐8040
Manager, Power Delivery 942 Corridor Park Blvd [email protected]
System Studies Knoxville, TN 37932
Observer/Liason Darrin Landstrom MISO (651) 895‐5522
15514 Zilla Street NW [email protected]
Andover, Minnesota 55304
Observer/Liason Eric Rollison Department of Energy 202‐586‐4093
Engineer Office of Electricity Delivery and [email protected]
Energy Reliability
Washington DC, 20585
Observer/Liason Esam Khadr Public Service Electric and Gas Co. 973‐430‐6731
Director 80 Park Plaza T‐14A [email protected]
Electric Delivery Plannin Newark NJ, 07102
Observer/Liason Frank Ciani New York Independent System Operator 518‐356‐7529
Planning Engineer 10 Krey Blvd [email protected]
Rensselaer, NY 12144
Observer/Liason Gary Brinkworth Tennessee Valley Authority 423‐751‐2193
Senior Manager 1101 Market St. MR3K‐C [email protected]
Chattanooga, TN 37402
Observer/Liason Glenn Catenacci Public Service Electric and Gas Co. 973‐430‐7821
Principal Staff Engineer 80 Park Plaza T‐14A [email protected]
Newark, NJ 07102
Observer/Liason Irina Green California ISO 916‐608‐1296
Senior Advisor [email protected]
Regional Transmission North
Observer/Liason James Useldinger Gridiance 816‐719‐9718
VP, Operations 2 N. LaSalle Street [email protected]
Suite 420
Chicago, IL 60602
Observer/Liason Jerry Rust Northwest Power Pool 503‐445‐1074
President 7505 NE Ambassador Place [email protected]
Suite R
Portland, OR 97220
Observer/Liason John Brewer National Energy Technology Laboratory 304‐285‐4858
MS: P04A [email protected]
PO Box 880
Morgantown, West Virginia 26507‐0880
Observer/Liason John Odom Florida Reliability Coordinating Council 813‐207‐7985
Vice President of Planning 3000 Bayport Drive [email protected]
and Operations Suite 6000
Tampa, Florida 33607
Observer/Liason John Seidel Midwest Reliability Organization 651‐855‐1716
Senior Manager 380 St. Peter Street [email protected]
Event Analysis and Reliability Suite 800
Improvement St. Paul, Minnesota 55102
Observer/Liason Kim Thomas SERC Reliability Corporation 704‐770‐7772
2815 Coliseum Centre Drive [email protected]
Suite 500
Charlotte, North Carolina 28217
Observer/Liason Laura Rauch MISO 317‐249‐5853
720 City Center Dr [email protected]
Carmel, IN 46032
Observer/Liason Louise Nutter Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (202) 502‐8175
Engineer Office of Electric Reliability [email protected]
888 First Street, N.E.
Washington, D.C. 20426
Observer/Liason Mark Babula Independent Electricity System Operator 413‐535‐4324
Principal Engineer One Sullivan Road mark.babula@iso‐ne.com
Resource Adequacy Holyoke, MA 0104
Observer/Liason Maryam Naghsh‐Nilchi MISO 317‐249‐2107
720 City Center Dr mnaghsh‐[email protected]
Carmel, IN 46032
Observer/Liason Michael B.Gerrard Columbia Law School 212‐854‐3287
Andrew Sabin Professor of Jerome Green Hall [email protected]
Professional Practice 435 West 116th Street
New York NY 10027
Observer/Liason Michael Milligan National Energy Technology Laboratory 303‐384‐6927
Consultant 1617 Cole Boulevard [email protected]
Golden, CO 80401
Observer/Liason Mike Knowland Independent Electricity System Operator [email protected]
P.O. Box 1
Toronto, Ontario M5G 2K4
Observer/Liason Mohammed Ahmed AEP (614) 552‐1669
Manager 700 Morrison Rd. [email protected]
East Training Planning Gahanna, Ohio 43230
Observer/Liason Nick Fels Nick Fels ‐ [email protected]
Observer/Liason Patricia Hoffman U.S. Department of Energy 202‐586‐1411
Assistant Secretary 1000 Independence Avenue [email protected]
Electricity Delivery & SW 6e‐069
Reliability Washinton, DC 20045
Observer/Liason Paul Walter American Transmission Company, LLC 262‐424‐4327
P.O. Box 47 [email protected]
Waukesha, WI 53187‐0047
Observer/Liason Peter Balash U.S. Department of Energy 412‐386‐5753
Senior Economist 626 Cochrans Mill Road [email protected]
P.O. Box 10940
Pittsburgh, PA 15236
Observer/Liason Radley Horton [email protected]
Observer/Liason Richard Herzog [email protected]
Observer/Liason Rick Thornton Santee Cooper 843‐761‐8000, ext 5593
PO Box 2946101 [email protected]
Moncks Corner South Carolina 29461
Observer/Liason Rob Vance NB Power Corporation (506) 458‐3922
Power System Engineer 510‐C Brookside Drive [email protected]
Fredericton, New Brunswick E3A 8V2
Observer/Liason Sedina Eric Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 202‐502‐6441
Electrical Engineer 888 First Street, N.E. [email protected]
Washington DC, 20426
Observer/Liason Tim Shear U.S. Energy Information Administration (202) 586‐0403
Economist, Electric Power [email protected]
Systems and Reliability Team
Observer/Liason Wayne Guttormson SaskPower 306‐566‐2166
Manager, Interconnections 6W ‐ 2025 Victoria Ave. [email protected]
System Planning & Assest Regina, SK
Management Canada S4P‐0S1
Observer/Liason Zeryai Hagos GE Power 518‐385‐8561
US Regional Marketing Director 1 River Road, 37‐431 [email protected]
Schenectady, NY 12345
NERC Staff Noha Abdel‐Karim North American Electric Reliability Corporation (202) 400‐3000
Senior Engineer 1325 G Street NW (202) 644‐8099 Fx
Reliability Assessment Suite 600 [email protected]
Washington, D.C. 20005
NERC Staff David Calderon North American Electric Reliability Corporation (404) 446‐2560
Engineer 3353 Peachtree Road NE (404) 446‐9779 Fx
Reliability Assessment Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Atlanta, Georgia 30326
NERC Staff Thomas Coleman North American Electric Reliability Corporation (404) 446‐2560
Director of Reliability 3353 Peachtree Road NE (404) 446‐9779 Fx
Assessment Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Atlanta, Georgia 30326
NERC Staff John Moura North American Electric Reliability Corporation (404) 446‐2560
Director of Reliability 3353 Peachtree Road NE (609) 610‐6044 Fx
Assessment and System Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Analysis Atlanta, Georgia 30326
NERC Staff Amir Najafzadeh North American Electric Reliability Corporation (404) 446‐2560
Senior Engineer 3353 Peachtree Road NE (404) 446‐9779 Fx
System Analysis Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Atlanta, Georgia 30326
NERC Staff Elliott Nethercutt North American Electric Reliability Corporation (202) 644‐8089
Senior Technical Advisor 1325 G Street NW (202) 744‐8044 Fx
Reliability Assessment Suite 600 [email protected]
Washington, D.C. 20005
NERC Staff Nicole Segal North American Electric Reliability Corporation (404) 446‐2563
Engineer 3353 Peachtree Road NE (404) 446‐9779 Fx
Reliability Assessment Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Atlanta, Georgia 30326
NERC Staff Levetra Pitts North American Electric Reliability Corporation 404‐446‐9636
Administrative Assistant 3353 Peachtree Road NE (404) 446‐9779 Fx
RASA Suite 600, North Tower [email protected]
Atlanta, Georgia 30326
Draft Meeting Minutes Reliability Assessment Subcommittee November 14, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) November 15, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) November 16, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) FRCC Offices Bayport Plaza 3000 Bayport Drive, Suite 600, Tampa, Florida 33607-8410 Administrative The meeting commenced at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Phil Fedora, RAS Chair, welcomed the attendees. The following members attended the meeting:
Name Representing Name Representing
Alan Wahlstrom Southwest Power Pool, Inc. Peter Warnken ERCOT Clay Young South Carolina Electric & Gas Co. Phil Fedora Northeast Power Coordinating Council David Calderon North American Electric Reliability Corporation Richard Becker Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Denise Lam Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Ryan Deptula Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Elliott Nethercutt North American Electric Reliability Corporation Ryan Westphal MISO Frank Ciani New York Independent System Operator Srinivas Kappagantula PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. Helve Saarela ISO New England, Inc. Tim Fryfogle ReliabilityFirst John Brewer National Energy Technology Laboratory Zeryai Hagos General Electric Power Layne Brown Western Electricity Coordinating Council Lewis De La Rosa Texas Reliability Entity, Inc. ¹ Alan Phung Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Matt Hart Southern Company ¹ Amir Najafzadeh North American Electric Reliability Corporation Nicole Segal North American Electric Reliability Corporation ¹ Paul Kure ReliabilityFirst Noha Abdel-Karim North American Electric Reliability Corporation ¹ Ryan Egerdahl Bonneville Power Administration1
Administrative The attendees were apprised of the NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines and the public nature of the meeting. The updated agenda (see appendix A), roster, and meeting minutes of July 12-13, 2016 were reviewed, and approved. Chair Report
a) Phil Fedora and Elliott Nethercutt provided and update on the recent activities of the MRC and Board of Trustees meetings. The latest RISC report was reviewed and the 2017 ERO strategic plan was established.
b) The Standing Committee Coordination Group is reviewing existing committee representation to understand cross functional work and perspectives. ERS sufficiency guidelines have been reviewed and look to be released in December.
c) The 2016LTRA is at the PC for final review and approval. Webinar scheduled with the PC on Monday of this meeting to review the comment matrix with the PC.
d) FERC approved regional business plans and budgets in October. NERC will be posting the 2017 BP&B for 2017 e) 2017-2020 ERO Strategic Plan was recently reviewed and in drafting work of associating strategic plans to specific
priorities from the Reliability Issues Steering Committee (RISC).
1 Participated via teleconference
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 2
PAS requested SOR guidance concerning M-1 Planning Reserve Margin Metric The RAS briefly reviewed the PAS request prior to the schedule call on Wednesday of this meeting. This request concerned guidance for a forward looking reserve margin metric as is currently identified within the State of Reliability (SOR). Main concerns from the RAS centered on separating any “actual” or “operational” margins from a forward looking metrics. NERC-Reliability Assessments has used historical outage rates for their operational risk analysis but does not apply these outage rates to a reserve margin to maintain a distinction between forward looking metrics and examination of operational risks/performance. The RAS will provide the PAS during their scheduled call a list of three recommendations:
• Use only up to a 5 year look at the differences between reserve margins; both anticipated and prospective • Look at past summer and winter reference margins (IRM’s) and examine spinning and non-spinning reserves • Use LOLH/EUE/etc. from the Probabilistic Assessment to align with the other reporting methods for loss of load
RAS
a) Suggestion to add in the RAS scope document: “and the PAITF” on item 5 and to spell out GTRMPTF and PAITF. b) The Probabilistic Assessment Working Group draft scope document was reviewed by the RAS and
recommendations for were requested. There was some question on the roles and responsibilities of the new working group while remaining flexible to participate in the increasing amount of probabilistic assessments that are being performed across the ERO. The purpose of the group is to conduct the NERC core ProbA and support the development of any special probabilistic assessments; this does not include duplicative or potentially conflicting reports. The working group will be responsible for reviewing and vetting data through encouraged active membership to help guarantee that assumptions are not created within a vacuum. The draft will be updated with suggested changes are presented to the PC for approval.
c) The RAS meeting schedule for 2017 was created; see appendix B) Reliability Assessment Guidebook Elliott Nethercutt provided an updated guidebook draft document and walked through the current structure. NERC requested a small group/team convene to review and continue developing this document further; several volunteered to assist in this effort. Reliability Assessment Database (RADS) David Calderon provided an update. The 2017 LTRA data request will include the data forms generated out of the RADS database. There may be a few units that were required to change their unique IDs due to the hybrid approach of using the generated forms in 2016. Moving forward only with forms generated in the system will maintain the integrity of the unique IDs. Update NERC Reference Margin Level NERC is looking to enhance the definition for “Reference Margin Level” within the Long-Term Reliability Assessment instructions to make considerations for all assessment areas’ planning assumptions. The goal is to provide a consistent definition that would satisfy both NERC and the Regions in the application of a default value for those areas that do not supply their own values for all ten years of the assessment. Currently a default value of 15% is applied to assessment areas that do not supply their own values for this line item. PC Webinar to review 2016LTRA The RAS dialed into the Planning Committee webinar to review the responses from NERC to the PC comments. Elliott Nethercutt supplied reviewed the completed comment matrix and David Calderon walked through the more significant revisions made to the document. 2016 Probabilistic Assessment Members of the ProbA team provided a peer review of their findings. These initial dashboards are to be included in the 2016LTRA with a concise write-up; the more extensive analysis will be provided in the 2016 Probabilistic Assessment. Suggestions were given to assist in the write ups by including some of the methods and assumptions along with the table and data. Consistency between assessment areas’ presentations was stressed to provide clarity when in the final report format.
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 3
Operational Risk Analysis David Calderon provided an update from the Operational Risk Analysis kickoff meeting. The RAS reviewed the usage of this analysis from the 2015 seasonal assessments and the 2016 Single Fuel Dependency Short Term Special Assessment. This analysis is distinctly different from a reserve margin analysis (a planning metric) as it uses outage information from the Generator Availability Data System (GADS) to examine potential operational risks for specific scenarios. There is some outstanding issues with representing the likelihood along with the potential risk. This is difficult to include while maintaining the clarity of message in a single chart and be comprehensive enough to comprise that level of granularity. One major take away was to increase the readability of the chart by keeping the chart simple. Demand Response David Calderon provided the background to this effort to evolve the demand response data collection and narrative question set for the 2017 Long-Term Reliability Assessment. There will continue to be some desire to link (or build some consistency) between the Demand Response Availability Data System (DADS) and the data collected for the LTRA. This will be a long term effort due to the distinguishing features of each data set. There must be considerations for what is planned for versus what is actually called and therefor only data showing enrollment is to be used for planning studies. Volunteers were requested to review the current definition and narrative questions used in the 2016 LTRA. Single Point of Disruption Amir Najafzadeh presented on the current progress of the Single Point of Disruption (SPOD) Special Assessment. The report will assess natural gas infrastructure/pipeline losses with large impacts to generating capacity. The Argonne national lab report will be used as a basis for the study as that report was provided publically and is a well-known example of a single point of disruption. The assessment will use a four step approach:
• Identify the facilities and amount of generation capacity that would be impacted • Evaluate the impacts to resource adequacy • Conduct the assessment using power system studies • Provide actionable recommendations to policy makers
Capacity Transfers Elliott Nethercutt provided the background on the use of capacity transfers in reserve margin calculations and the intent of use of “firm” in the data instructions. There continue to be inconsistencies from areas on how these values are being validated and/or jointly coordinated. As different assessment areas peak at different times, coordination is somewhat more difficult. There may need to be some inclusion to the instructions for the differences between firm generation capacity and firm transmission capacity. NERC will update the 2017LTRA data instructions to reflect this change. Hourly Forecasted Data Request NERC will not be requesting 18-months of forecasted hourly load for all assessment areas in 2017. This data may still be requested as part of a special assessment but only for the specific areas being studied. Unconfirmed Retirements The RAS discussed the usage of unconfirmed retirement in the 2016LTRA. Whereas some market based areas receive relatively little advanced notice for confirmed retirements, there is a recognized need to examine these unconfirmed retirements within the LTRA. The application of these towards a reserve margin analysis will need to be further studied as there are considerations needed for submitted data; such as for units whose retirements are contingent on guaranteed replacement generation, etc. Suggestions surrounded the inclusion of an additional line item that would be a potential scenario that would include these considerations by assessment area. Distributed Generation David Calderon provided a background on the changes made for the 2016LTRA. Data instructions and narrative questions were created to be more exploratory. The intent was for the assessment areas to provide some more concrete examples of how distributed energy resources are currently tracked/trended within their own boundaries. The effort for 2017 is to channel this feedback into a more selective and descriptive request that would be more aligned with current practices and data collection efforts. Suggestions from multiple members was to focus more on the usage of “rooftop photovoltaic” to remove any inclusion of generation considered as “distributed” that are outside the intended scope. The data form and instructions will be modified to include “PV nameplate” and “On-Peak PV”.
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 4
Generator Data David Calderon reviewed various issues/questions that were raised throughout 2016 regarding the correct submissions for generator data. These included:
• Mothballed units • Units considered for “Existing-Certain” calculations • Planned units considered for “Summer/Winter-Other” calculations • Nameplate capacity for unit sets or areas that do not collect by this terminology
Considerations will be reviewed for each of these and suggestions will be incorporated into the 2017LTRA data instructions. EIA 411 Schedule 9; PMU Smart Grid Supplemental Request Elliott Nethercutt provided the background on this data request and the changes that were made to the forms in 2016. The changes in this year’s request were suggestions from NERC’s Synchronized Measurement Subcommittee; this involved splitting the forms into individual question sets to provide Generator Owners, Transmission Owners, and Reliability Coordinators. There are some questions from the RAS on the use of this data by NERC and EIA; EIA will be invited to the April RAS meeting to provide some additional clarity. For the 2017LTRA, it was requested that NERC provide a more condensed version of the request to aid the submitters. MOD 31 Requirement NERC stressed that the requirements for a MOD 31 data request and the LTRA data request are not aligned and should not be considered the same. Compliance with a NERC Standard should be considered separately from a Section 800 based request to perform an Assessment; this is regardless of any similarity between either data. RAS members requested that the 2017LTRA data forms emphasize that LTRA data/narrative request is not a request to satisfy a MOD 31 data request. This will be included on the forms for 2017 to assist the Regional entities in clarifying these differences for the first year of the new MOD standard.
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 5
Appendix A – Meeting Agenda
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee Meeting Agenda November 14, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) November 15, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) November 16, 2016 | 8:30am – 5:00pm (EDT) FRCC Offices Bayport Plaza 3000 Bayport Drive, Suite 600, Tampa, Florida 33607-8410 Join WebEx meeting Meeting number (access code): 739 416 138 Meeting password: 8pT4En95 Join by phone +1-415-655-0002 US Toll +1-416-915-8942 Canada Toll NERC On-Site Contact: David Calderon (404) 960-0568
Monday, November 14
8:30 – 9:00 am 1. Administrative
a. Welcome and Introductions – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair b. NERC Antitrust Compliance Guidelines – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff c. Facilities & Safety Briefing – FRCC Staff d. Review Agenda – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair e. Review July Meeting Minutes – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff f. Review latest roster – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
9:00 – 10:15 am 2. Chair Report - Phil Fedora, RAS Chair
a. Summary of November MRC/BOT Meetings – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair; Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff • Link to Agenda Package -- Link to Presentations
b. Summary of September PC/OC Meetings – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair; Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff • Link to Agenda -- Link to Presentations
c. Status of 2016LTRA d. 2017 NERC & Regional BP&B – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair e. 2017-2020 ERO Enterprise Strategic Plan – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair
• Link to Announcement and Metrics
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 6
10:15 – 10:30 am BREAK 10:30 – 11:00 am 3. PAS requested SOR guidance concerning M-1 Planning Reserve Margin Metric – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair
a. Action Item – Review example shown in Chapter 4 of NERC 2016 State of Reliability Report 11:00 – Noon 4. RAS – Phil Fedora, RAS Chair; Noha Abdel-Karim, NERC RA Staff
a. Review Change to RAS Scope; Scope of activities – Item 5; to reference PAITF b. Scope and formation of the Probabilistic Assessment Working Group
• Review Draft/Approve Draft c. 2017 RAS Work Schedule and proposed 2017 Meeting Dates/Locations
• Action Item – Develop 2017 Work & Meeting Schedule Noon – 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 – 1:30 pm 5. Reliability Assessment Guidebook – Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff (Moved to Tuesday)
a. Review Draft b. Action Item – Assign subteam to further review current draft
1:30 – 2:00 pm 6. Reliability Assessment Database (RADS) – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
c. Expectations for 2017 use d. Unique IDs
2:00 – 3:00 pm 7. Update NERC Reference Margin Level – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff (Moved to Wednesday)
a. Background b. Discuss issues with generic values due to uncertainty c. Considerations for Assessment Area’s generation mix d. Action Item – Assign subteam to review NERC Reference Margin Level
3:00 – 3:15 pm BREAK 3:15 – 5:00 pm (Floating Time for PC availability) 8. PC Webinar to review 2016LTRA – Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff 5:00 pm ADJOURN
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 7
Tuesday, November 15
8:30 – 10:15 am 9. 2016 Probabilistic Assessment Noha Abdel-Karim, NERC RA Staff
a. Peer Review • FRCC • RF • MRO • NPCC • SERC • SPP • Texas RE • WECC
10:15 – 10:30 am BREAK 10:30 am - Noon 9. 2016 Probabilistic Assessment (cont.) Noha Abdel-Karim, NERC RA Staff
b. Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Force enhancements to narratives Noon – 1:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 – 2:00 pm 10. Operational Risk Analysis – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Update from Kickoff meeting b. Other Regional work with GADS data
2:00 – 3:00 pm 11. Demand Response – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Feedback with Performance Analysis and DADS teams b. Action Item – Assign subteam to review data instructions for Demand Response
3:00 – 3:15 pm BREAK 3:15 – 3:45 pm (Moved to Wednesday 12:30pm) 12. Single Point of Disruption – Amir Najafzadeh, NERC RA Staff
3:45 – 5:00 pm (Moved to Wednesday)
13. Capacity Transfers – Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff a. Potential use of other sources (MMWG interchange tables) b. Firm vs. Non-firm
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 8
5:00 pm ADJOURN
Wednesday, November 16
8:30 – 8:45 am 14. Hourly Forecasted Data Request – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Expectations for 2017 8:45 – 9:15 am 15. Unconfirmed Retirements – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Background of use in 2016LTRA b. Conditional on additional/replacement generation
9:15 – 10:00 am 16. Distributed Generation – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Previous requests (PV Nameplate, On-Peak PV, etc) b. Discuss Storage placement in LTRA data/narratives
10:00 – 10:15 am BREAK 10:15 – 11:00 am 17. Generator Data – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
a. Mothballed units b. Review suggested revisions “Existing-Certain” in instructions to prevent over counting
i. Considerations for Energy-Only markets ii. Units that will not serve in next year’s capacity markets
iii. Other units meeting potential issues with over counting c. Clarification for Planned-Other units; what would meet these requirements; are instructions clear? d. Clarification for “nameplate capacity” definition
i. Units that get permanently uprated/derated ii. Units that aggregate up from very small units. There are varying combinations of aggregated blocks
or units that have changing contracts or other capacity market variations. iii. Units with no physical nameplate iv. Areas that do not collect nameplate capacity values
11:00 – Noon 18. PAS/RAS Coordination Call
a. Provide feedback to PAS concerning M-1 Planning Reserve Margin Metric Noon – 1:00 pm LUNCH
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 9
1:00 – 2:30 pm (Moved to Tuesday) 19. EIA 411 Schedule 9; PMU – Smartgrid Supplemental Request – Elliott Nethercutt, NERC RA Staff
a. Background b. Review data discrepancy issue c. Suggested paths forward d. Action Item – Assemble subteam to review data instructions for Supplemental Data
2:30 – 2:45 pm 20. MOD 31/32 Requirements – David Calderon, NERC RA Staff
2:45 – 3:00 pm BREAK
3:00 – 5:00 pm 21. Regional Roundtable (Please come prepared to discuss)
a. Emerging Issues b. New Studies c. Other Issues
Reliability Assessment Subcommittee: November 2016 Draft Meeting Minutes 10
Appendix B – 2017 RAS Meeting Schedule
Mid-January Review Request Material redlines Approve Assessment SRA/LTRA Schedules
Email/SharePoint
April 11-12 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review SRA Approve WRA Schedule Review Methods and Assumptions (LTRA) EIA
NERC – DC
July 11-12 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
LTRA Peer Review BPA - Portland
August 22-23 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review WRA/Specials Halifax/New York Tentative Meeting
November 14-16 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm 8:30am – 5:00pm
Review LTRA 2018 Strategic Meetings Confirm 2018 Request Materials Data/Narrative Changes
FRCC
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY1
2017 Summer Request Schedule
Deliverable Deadline
Data and Narrative Request sent to Regional Executives and RAS January 20
Data and Narrative responses due to NERC April 7
RAS Meeting: Review data and identify/discuss seasonal reliability issues April 11-12
Report Development April 7-21
Touch point with Executive Management on key topics Week of April 17
Draft sent to RAS for Review April 24
RAS Review Period April 24-28All comments from RAS due - NERC incorporates all comments April 28Draft sent to PC for Review May 1PC review period- NERC incorporates all comments May 1-12Updated Report sent to PC for vote May 15Webinar to review changes May 15
PC electronic voting period May 15-19
Publications Review Report May 15-19Report sent to Executive Management for approval May 22Report Release May 25
2017 LTRARegional Outreach
David CalderonApril 12, 2017
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY2
2017 Schedule
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY3
Form A: Distributed Generation / Photovoltaic
Changes from 2016
Prior Year:
Current Year:
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY4
Form A: Distributed Generation / Photovoltaic
Changes from 2016
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY5
Form C: Modeled Transfers
Changes from 2016
Prior Year:
Current Year:
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY6
• Completeness Data form has no empty required cells (Orange). All narrative questions have been responded to. If question is not
applicable/relevant, explain why. Identification and conclusions of issues are fully explained. Data trends and recommendations are described. Methods and assumptions documentation is provided and is consistent
with the data and narratives.
• Accuracy There is data validation in place within the submittal process. Regional entity has reviewed data and narratives. Data is consistent with interconnection-wide study/modeling groups.
Request Material Expectations
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY7
• Responsiveness Region and assessment area respond to validation requests/corrections. Responses to peer review comments are clearly communicated and
documented. NERC will seek to clarify regional variations, from their methods and
assumptions, that affect any assessment analyses.
• Timeliness Areas submit complete data and narratives by scheduled dates. Peer Review comments and responses are provided on time. Any inconsistencies found in the data/narratives are addressed in a
timely fashion.
Request Material Expectations
RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY8
