Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what...

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Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national standard We have carried out a detailed statistical analysis between the results from the PIRA and PUMA tests for Year 2 and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016 national tests. In doing this, the PIRA and PUMA test raw scores of 1,150 children for PiRA and over 1,400 children for PUMA from 56 schools across the country have been linked to the scaled scores achieved by the same children in their actual national tests*. In order to describe the relationship between the Rising Stars PIRA and PUMA tests and the national test scores, a statistical technique known as linear regression was used to model the relationship between the two variables. Outputs of this analysis are provided below as tables and graphs to assist teachers in using the findings to relate their own children’s PiRA and PUMA marks to the national test scaled scores. *Please note that this will be indicative only. Other factors can influence a child’s performance on any given day. How this analysis will help you The results of this analysis provide teachers with a clear indication of the marks children are likely to need in their PIRA and PUMA tests in order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit their national tests. The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more in the national tests. Children achieving similar scores in the PIRA and PUMA tests in 2016- 2017 would therefore be operating at the national standard. The analysis correlates all PIRA and PUMA marks to the full range of scaled scores from 85 to 115 at KS1 and 80 to 120 at KS2. This analysis should concentrate efforts to help identify those currently on track to perform slightly below the 100 scaled score, so you can use your PIRA and PUMA gap analysis to highlight the areas for development/intervention.

Transcript of Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what...

Page 1: Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more

Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks

to the national standard

We have carried out a detailed statistical analysis between the results from the PIRA and PUMA tests for Year 2

and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016 national tests.

In doing this, the PIRA and PUMA test raw scores of 1,150 children for PiRA and over 1,400 children for PUMA

from 56 schools across the country have been linked to the scaled scores achieved by the same children in their

actual national tests*.

In order to describe the relationship between the Rising Stars PIRA and PUMA tests and the national test

scores, a statistical technique known as linear regression was used to model the relationship between the two

variables. Outputs of this analysis are provided below as tables and graphs to assist teachers in using the

findings to relate their own children’s PiRA and PUMA marks to the national test scaled scores.

*Please note that this will be indicative only. Other factors can influence a child’s performance on any given day.

How this analysis will help you

The results of this analysis provide teachers with a clear indication of the marks children are likely to need in

their PIRA and PUMA tests in order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit their national tests.

The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to

achieve 100 or more in the national tests. Children achieving similar scores in the PIRA and PUMA tests in 2016-

2017 would therefore be operating at the national standard. The analysis correlates all PIRA and PUMA marks

to the full range of scaled scores from 85 to 115 at KS1 and 80 to 120 at KS2. This analysis should concentrate

efforts to help identify those currently on track to perform slightly below the 100 scaled score, so you can use

your PIRA and PUMA gap analysis to highlight the areas for development/intervention.

Page 2: Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more

Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks

to the national standard

Using the Relationship Tables

The Relationship Tables have been created to enable you to monitor the marks children are likely to need in their PIRA and PUMA tests in

order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit their national tests

The middle column shows you the child’s Estimated Scaled Score. The numbers on either side of this are prediction and confidence intervals –

this simply means they show the lowest score the child is likely to achieve, and the highest. Because all children and all test experiences vary, it

is impossible to say that they will definitely achieve the number in the middle column – but you can be comfortable that there is a 95% chance

they will achieve a score between the lowest and highest listed in that row.

Using the Relationship Graphs

For each table there is a corresponding graph which has the PIRA or PUMA test marks plotted against the national test scores, for easy

reference. Either side of the central line are two lines directly above and below which show the upper and lower 95% confidence limits for the

estimated scaled score of all pupils in the population.

The outer lines show a prediction with 95% confidence for individual pupil’s scaled score from their PIRA or PUMA test mark.

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PiRA 2 Autumn Test Relationship Table

National test scores

PIRA 2

Autumn Test

mark

Lower 95%

prediction

limit

Lower 95%

confidence limit

Estimated

Scaled Score

Upper 95%

confidence limit

Upper 95%

prediction limit

1 <85 90 91 92 102

2 <85 91 92 93 102

3 <85 92 93 93 103

4 <85 93 94 94 104

5 <85 94 94 95 105

6 85 95 95 96 106

7 86 96 96 97 107

8 86 96 97 98 108

9 87 97 98 98 108

10 88 98 99 99 109

11 89 99 100 100 110

12 90 100 100 101 111

13 91 101 101 102 112

14 92 102 102 102 113

15 92 103 103 103 114

16 93 104 104 104 114

17 94 104 105 105 115

18 95 105 106 106 >115 19 96 106 106 107 >115 20 97 107 107 108 >115 21 98 108 108 109 >115 22 98 109 109 110 >115 23 99 109 110 110 >115 24 100 110 111 111 >115 25 101 111 112 112 >115

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PiRA 2 Autumn Test Relationship Graph

Page 5: Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more

PiRA 2 Spring Test Relationship Table

National Test scores

PIRA 2 Spring

Test mark

Lower 95%

prediction

limit

Lower 95%

confidence limit

Estimated

Scaled Score

Upper 95%

confidence limit

Upper 95%

prediction limit

1 <85 <85 85 86 94

2 <85 85 86 87 96

3 <85 87 87 88 97

4 <85 88 88 89 98

5 <85 89 89 90 99

6 <85 90 91 91 100

7 <85 91 92 92 101

8 <85 92 93 93 102

9 85 93 94 94 103

10 86 94 95 95 104

11 87 95 96 96 105

12 88 96 97 97 106

13 89 98 98 98 107

14 90 99 99 99 108

15 91 100 100 100 109

16 92 101 101 101 110

17 93 102 102 102 111

18 94 103 103 103 112

19 95 104 104 105 113

20 96 105 105 106 114

21 97 106 106 107 >115

22 98 107 107 108 >115 23 99 108 108 109 >115 24 100 109 110 110 >115 25 101 110 111 111 >115

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PiRA 2 Spring Test Relationship Graph

Page 7: Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national ... · The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more

PiRA 2 Summer Test Relationship Table

National Test scores

PIRA 2 Summer

Test mark

Lower 95% prediction

limit

Lower 95%

confidence limit

Estimated

Scaled Score

Upper 95%

confidence limit

Upper 95%

prediction limit

1 <85 84 85 87 95

2 <85 85 86 88 96

3 <85 86 88 89 97

4 <85 88 89 90 98

5 <85 89 90 91 99

6 <85 90 91 92 100

7 <85 91 92 93 101

8 <85 92 93 94 102

9 <85 93 94 95 103

10 85 94 95 96 104

11 86 95 96 97 106

12 87 97 97 98 107

13 89 98 98 99 108

14 90 99 99 100 109

15 91 100 100 101 110

16 92 101 101 102 111

17 93 102 102 103 112

18 94 103 103 104 113

19 95 104 104 105 114

20 96 105 105 106 115

21 97 106 107 107 >115 22 98 107 108 108 >115 23 99 108 109 109 >115 24 100 109 110 110 >115 25 101 110 111 111 >115

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PiRA 2 Summer Test Relationship Graph