=REGRESIÓN LINEAL=

Planeacion y Evaluación de Proyectos

Nombre: Jazael Pintor Garcia.

Profesor: Ignacio Almáraz Rodriguez

Introducción:

The work consists of an analysis of four indicators; GDP, inflation, parity and

interest rates through linear regression and whose data will be compared with the

data provided by the federal government presented the 2016 economic package.

The four indicators mentioned above will be based on the construction of our

equations showing their dependence among other variables; whose equation we

also provide forecast data for each indicator in different scenarios, also we contrast

the economic indicators provided by the government for 2016 and forecasts to be

obtained from our equations, which showed us how accurate our forecast is thus

the government hopes for the coming year and how come is reality as such

EL PIB

Inflation(x1) Parity(x2) Int.Rate(x3) PIB (Y)10 30 50 0.9163496715 15 40 2.69741038

5 15 5 2.30498665 10 3.5 2.76714012

3.5 25 5 1.302408453 1.92 4 3.34989523

Datos paquete economicoNota: 1.92% es la paridad con valores de paquetes 2015 y 2016, paridad real es 8.67%PIB pronosticado 3.34989523PIB del paquete 3.6Error % 6.947% Y=o.o694x1-0.0898x2-0-0086x3+ 3.348

The table above shows the projection of GDP scenarios where change each

variable amounts of data and the economic package 2016, as we see, the changes

in GDP increase when the values of the variables on which depends the GDP in

our study are smaller and variations decrease as the values of the variables age,

also it shows that GDP growth is most affected by the exchange rate with other

variables. According to our results the GDP values of the economic package for

2016, it is provided that the growth of our economy will be 3.34%, an interval that

the government of 3.6% is below the forecast for 2016 but is within the range

established that is 2.6% -3.6%, this indicates that our equation predicts a similar

growth set by the government, but we must clarify, this is because the change in

parity is fixed by data claimed the government was the exchange rate for the 2015

and 2016, ie, the change in parity does not take into account the effects of the

current situation if not so provided the government, which the result of our

exchange equation 2.58 %. reflecting that government forecast is wrong for

28.33% if taken as fact 3.6% of prognosis and with minimal error of 0.76 below the

range of 2.6%.

Escenario ! Escenario 2 Escenario 3 Escenario 4 Escenario 5 paquete economico

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

PIB

=Interes Rate =

PIB (x1)Inflación(x2

) Paridad(x3) tasa de interés (Y)2 15 50 17.7331782

3.5 5 25 11.748579710 50 30 39.9186465

5 5 15 11.834189815 40 15 33.2935408

2.6 3 1.92 11.1405945Nota: 1.92% es la paridad con valores de paquetes 2015-2016, paridad real es 8.67%Interes pronosticado 11.1405945

Y=-0.1109x1+0.6448x2-0.0252x3+9.54

Interes paquete 4Error% -178.51%

In this case we can say that variables such as parity and mainly inflation has a

greater influence on the forecast of the interest rate as we see it reflected in the

table where the values of both are high and interest rates are lower when these

two variables have a more pequeño.En value relative to our forecast what would

be the interest rate with the values of indicators according to economic package is

11.14, well above the 4% set by the government for the following year, which gives

us an error of 178.51% negative.

=Análisis=

According to this we can mention that the projections of the equation obtained from

the two indicators (GDP and interest rate) vary depending on other variables, note

that in the case of GDP estimates vary but when the value of the exchange rate

(parity) is greater or less according to the scenarios presented above, and it has

simple explanation, since the parity is what increases or decreases the size of

GDP; pr the issue of devaluation or appreciation of our currency. In the case of

variable interest rate main showing a greater influence in this, is the inflation rate,

and because inflation is part of the composition of the interest rate, and a higher

rate of higher inflation will be the interest rate and the above viceversa.En also

note that the error in predicting our 2 ecuacuiones with respect to the values of the

2016 economic package is large in the case of GDP and in the case of rate

interest: but in these two cases the interpretation of our forecasts can be

misleading as the same package, because we know that in the case of the interest

rate, if our ecuation presents its variables worth creole value of our rate would be

11%, which would be a big problem for the economy of our country, since it would

increase inflation and opened greater commercial interest rate, affecting future

projects internally. such measures should also know that our economic life is not

linear, Therefore the real change would be different.

Conclusion:

The reality of the economic life of our economy can not be seen as a straight line,

because our country depends on the internal and external behavior of our

economy. The study of the linear regression is important to know the future

behavior, but does not show the true reality of that is always important in numerical

vasarce issues, but the factors that can change it is important to conclude

percepción.Para information for future decision making in all aspects of life, as a

way of taking precaution or take advantage