Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge...

Regional Routing Model Review:

C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis

Frank SouthworthOak Ridge National LaboratoryOak Ridge, TN 37831

NETS Program ReviewDecember 12, 2005Washington DC

OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Calibration, Forecasting & Scenario Analysis

County/Port Based Mode/Route/Market Choice Model(s)*

Calibration

Forecast / Scenario Based Commodity Flows, Costs and Benefits

Forecasting,Scenario Analysis

* = Simultaneous or nested mode and destination choice linked to capacity constrained route assignment

Base Case Computed Flows, Costs (and Benefits)

County/Port Based Commodity Production /Consumption Forecasts

NETS Tier 1 Regional Economic Activity Forecasts/ Scenarios

Changes in Demands

Fuel, labor, I&M costs by vehicle /vessel types (C,M,V) (Data)

Changes to Network Conditions (Capacities) and Mode/Route Costs

Network Changes

Mode Specific Rate Estimation Models

Transit times, distances

dollar/ton shipment rates

Changes in Supply


Estimate Commodity Production (O) & Consumption (D) by Region

Connect Os and Ds to Estimate O-to-D Commodity Flows

Assign O-to-D Flows to Modes & Routes

Re-Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton

Estimate O-to-D Costs per Ton

Re-Estimate O-to-D Flows

Iterate toConvergence

The Basic Flow and Cost Estimation Process


Vak

)d( S XVZMinimize ak

akXV 0, ),(

+ m 1/ βm ( Xi jm ln Xi j

m) + m 1/ λm ( Xi jkm ln Xi j

km)

Prototype Regional Routing Model Formulation:

subject to:

Vak = ∑i ∑j ∑r δ i,j

akr X i j kr for all links, a, and modes k, in the

network

∑r X i j

rk = X i j k for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J

∑k X i j

k = X i j for i=1,2,...I, and j=1,2,...J

Vak ≥ 0

X i j kr ≥ 0

V = a link volumeX = an O-D flow volumeS = link transportation time orgeneralized cost


Freight Destination Choice (Flows Modeling):

Xi jm = Oi

m Dj m F[ βm, ci j

m ] Aim Bj

m

Aim = 1/{j Bj

m Djm

F [ βm, c i j m ]} for all i

Bj m = 1/{i Ai

m Oim F [ βm, i j

m ]} for all j c

i j ( Xi jm di j

m } / i,j Xi jm = d * m

where

and


Freight Mode Choice:

Xijkm = Xij

m *[exp(-θm ckm)/ ∑kεK(m) exp(-θm ckm)]

cijkm = α0 + α1 rij

km + α2 Sijkm + α3 vij

km

where (for example):

and,

c ijm = -(1/ λm ) ln {k exp (-λm c i j

km )}

(links mode and destination choice)


Components of Freight Costs that Need Modeling:

Number of different “legs” to a journey

Shipper/receiver perceived costs per leg:

freight rate transit time service reliability

Congestion effects

i.e. congestion transit time and reliability direct plus indirect (i.e. rate) effects on costs


14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

0 500 1000 1500 2000

S=

Tra

ve

l T

ime

(M

inu

tes

)

Traffic Volume (Vehicles/hour)

S = S0 * (1+ 0.15 (V/C)**4)

x =Kilotons/Year (in thousands)

CC/2

S=

Min

ute

s o

f D

ela

y/T

ow

k

S = k /((C/x) –

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

CC/2

k

–1)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Lock Congestion Function Highway Congestion Function

Sa = Sao * [ 1 + θ1* Va + θ2 *( Va / Capa)γ ]

“Generic” link congestion function for use in Toy Model:

Network Link Transit Time (Congestion) Functions


Components of Freight Movement Costs

Freight Rates In-Transit Times Service Quality (Reliability)

Variable Operating Costs (Annualized)

Line-haul costsLoading/unloading costsEquipment utilization costs Commodity carrying costsAdministrative costs Shipment distance

Cargo type (commodity, weight, volume)Labor rateFuel price Carrier/operator type Equipment typeCompany type (private/for-hire; size)Contract type (duration)Facility type, Location,Operating licenses, fees and taxes

Capital Operating Costs

Generalized Transportation Costs (Shipper Perspective)

Level 1: (Statistical)

Level 2: (Engineering)


10

1112

2313

14

16

15

1718

19

20

21

22

24

25

30

26

27

28

29

31

32

33

1

2

45

7

8

9

3 6

42

Port A

Port B

Port C

Lock a

Lock b Lock c

TruckRailInland WaterDeep Water

Traffic Centroids(10 in all)

41

34

40

35

39

3637

38

40 Network Nodes (44)

Key:

Links (110 in all):

44

43


1

2

3

4 5

6

7 8

9


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$ $

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$ $

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$

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$

$ $

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$$

#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#44

42

41

40

3837

36

33

32

3130

29

27

26

25

24

2221

20

19

17

16

1514

13

12

10

9

87

6

54

3

2

1

R R M T o y N etwo rkPort A

Port B

Port C

F o re ig nP o rt

L o ck1

Lock 2L o ck 3

Rail

Rail

Rail

R iver 1

River 2

C oastline0 10 20 30

M iles

FIELD_9

200000 100000 50000Model Run # 1

Origin Mode Split = 36.7% water 63.3 % rail


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$ $

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#

#

#

#

#

#

##

#

#44

42

41

40

3837

36

33

32

3130

29

27

26

25

24

2221

20

19

17

16

1514

13

12

10

9

87

6

54

3

2

1

R R M T o y N etwo rkPort A

Port B

Port C

Fore ignP ort

Lock1

Lock 2Lock 3

Rail

Rail

Rail

R iver 1

R iver 2

C oastline0 10 20 30

M iles

FLOW S

150000 75000 37500Model Run # 2

Origin Mode Split = 74.9% water 25.1% rail


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

An

nu

al T

on

s R

ecei

ved

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Destination Region

Destination Flow Comparisons

data input

model#1

model#2

Regional Routing Model Review: C) Model Formulation and Scenario Analysis Frank Southworth Oak Ridge...

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