Regional Refining Outlook - the ICE · 2013-06-25 · Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light Bonny Light...

25 June 2013

Regional Refining Outlook

Special Presentation

Michael Dei-Michei

JBC Energy GmbH

June 2013

Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training

For ICE Market Forum

25 June 2013 Slide 2

Disclaimer

All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking

statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of

future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve

known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ

materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among

other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections

and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such

as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’,

‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and

similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are

expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.

Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking

statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries

undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new

information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from

those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation.

Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC

Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable

for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC’s third party sources

provide data to JBC on an “as-is” basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to

reliance on or use of their data by any party.

25 June 2013

Overview

Slide 3

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

2007 Stock 2007 Stock

Reforming Other Conversion

Coking Hydrocracking

Cat Cracking CDU Capacity

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

2007 - 2017 Additions 2007 -2017 Additions

Title [unit]Global CDU & Conversion Additions ['000 b/d]

Slide 3

Demand growth of

main products

(gasoline, gas oil, jet,

naphtha, fuel oil)


Overview

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ytd

Asia

NWE

USGC

JBC Energy Margins by Region [$/bbl]

Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts data

JBC Energy margins are based on an average of

selected margin calculations. The margins are derived

from three different set-ups, two crude baskets and

three yield patterns for each region .


US

72

76

80

84

88

92

96

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Last Avg 08-12

2013 2012

2011 2010

2009 Avg 03-07

US Refinery Utilisation - 4-Week Average [%]

Source: EIA


US

Approximate US Crude Price Change Over Last 6 Months (May vs. Nov) [$/bbl]

PADD II & IVPADD V

PADD III

PADD I

WCSNovember vs May: +$15

Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts, Reuters

WTI November vs May: +$9

SyncrudeNovember vs May: +$14

MarsNovember vs May: -$3

Bonny Light (CIF)November vs May: -$4

ANSNovember vs May: no

change

ESPO (CIF)November vs May: - $6

BakkenNovember vs May: +$11

WTSNovember vs May: +$19

LLSNovember vs May: -$1

Bakken vs ESPO: -$12Bakken vs Bonny

Light: -$15

Bakken vs LLS: -$13


US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Light Distillates Middle Distallates Fuel Oil Coke/Asphalt

PADD3 Blend

Light/Heavy Blend

Dumbbell Effect - PADD3 Average Refining Yields [%]

Light/Heavy blend

consists of equal

shares of Eagle Ford

50 , Eagle Ford 40 ,

Bakken, Maya, Merey

and WCS

Slide 7

25 June 2013

US

Slide 8

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Monthly Utilisation Rate

Monthly Utilisation Rate

Utilisation Rates of USGC Refineries 1985-2013 [%; °API]

Average Gravity of Crude Intake [ API]

CD

U U

tilis

ati

on

[%

]

Source: JBC Energy, EIA

Utilisation by light product outputUtilisation by secondary capacity

Slide 8

25 June 2013

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000Total Products Net-Imports - Right Scale

Total Products Exports

Total Products Imports

US Products Trade Flows ['000 b/d]

Source: EIA

Slide 9

US

Slide 9


US / Global

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Canada & Mexico Central & South America Europe

Asia Africa Middle East

FSU East U.S. Crude Production

Y-o-Y Changes to U.S. Crude Oil Imports & Production ['000 b/d]

Source: EIA, JBC Energy calculations

February & March 2013 figures are JBC

Estimates based on weekly EIA data

Slide 10


Europe

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13

Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light

Bonny Light vs Forties

Bonny Light vs Urals NWE

Bonny Light vs Flotta

Bonny Light Incentive in Medium Setup w. Complex Basket in NWE [$/bbl]

Source: JBC Energy calculation based on H/Comet and Platts, Galbraith's, CR Weber

The incentive to run a crude is

calculated by adding an extra 5% to the

complex European crude basket


Europe / Global

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13

NWE Med

Asia USGC

Simple vs Complex Baseloads [$/bbl]

Source: JBC Energy using Platts data

Source: JBC Energy based on Platts data


Europe

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13

Total Products Net-Imports

US Exports to Europe

US Imports from Europe

US Total Product Trade with Europe ['000 b/d]

Source: EIAThe chart displays exports of all products

?

25 June 2013

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Crude NGLs Other Feedstocks

OECD Europe - Refinery Intake by Stream ['000 b/d]

Source: IEA

Slide 14

Europe


Europe / Global

Slide 15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

France Spain

Ukraine Australia

Pakistan Indonesia

Mexico South Africa

Chile

Refinery Utilisation Rates vs. Total Product Net-Imports in Various Countries

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Product Net-Imports ['000 b/d]Refinery Utilisation [%]


Asia / Global

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia

Middle East Africa North America Central & South America

2012

2013

2014

2017

Middle Eastern Gasoline Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]


Asia / Global

0

50

100

150

200

250

Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia

Middle East Africa North America Central & South America

2012

2013

2014

2017

Middle Eastern Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]


Asia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Europe North America C&S America

Africa Middle East FSU East

Unknown OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia

South Korean Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]

Source: IEA

Slide 18


Asia

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

Gasoline Gas Oil/Diesel

Gasoline - 12 Month Mov. Avg. Gas Oil/Diesel - 12 Month Mov. Avg.

Asian Demand Growth Indicator ['000 b/d]

Source: IEA, official statistics, JODI, JBC Energy calculations

Figures between Mar-13 to Jun-13 are JBC Energy estimates

Data represent over 80% of Asian demand in each product


Conclusions

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Rest of World

New Exporters*

New Exporters: • The USA

• China, India & South Korea• Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE

Gasoline, Jet/Kero & Gas Oil/Diesel Net Importers ['000 b/d]


Conclusions

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Other Middle East & Africa Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE Other Asia

China, India & South Korea Other America United States

Americas Asia Mideast & Africa

Europe FSU East

Key Transport Fuel Importers & Exporters ['000 b/d]

Included are Imports of:• gasoline

• jet/kero• gas oil/diesel


Conclusions

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Total Product Imports (Gasoline + Jet/Kero + Gas Oil/Diesel)

Total Crude Imports - right scale

Total Global Imports: Crude + Products ['000 b/d]


Conclusions

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA

NORTH AMERICA

AFRICA

MIDDLE EAST

ASIA

FSU EAST

EUROPE

Yearly Crude Intake Change by Region ['000 b/d]


Conclusions

70.00%

72.00%

74.00%

76.00%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

OECD Europe Asia Middle East

North America C&S America

Regional Refinery Utilisation [%]


Thank You!

www.jbcenergy.com

Research – Energy Studies – Consulting – Training

Regional Refining Outlook - the ICE · 2013-06-25 · Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light Bonny Light...

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